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Dominion market analysis : sky's the limit on technetium (long term)

Author
SetrakDark
Doomheim
#141 - 2012-05-24 14:04:50 UTC
yup, i'm basing my actions on similar back-of-the-envelope analysis; it is a very convincing argument

i just wanted to point out that there is no basis from which to privilege any of the past temporarily stable price points over any other, in my mind they are all still far beneath the point where people will permanently decrease the amount of t2 stuff they buy.
SetrakDark
Doomheim
#142 - 2012-05-24 14:08:43 UTC  |  Edited by: SetrakDark
Andre Vauban wrote:
But this is what is so amusing about OTEC. They don't care about making more isk. They are sitting on 100's of trillions of isk. They literally don't know what to do with all their isk. You are assuming they are playing the same game as you, they are not. They are doing this to mess with the rest of eve.


not really. not only can it all be banked for a possible future where income like this can't be achieved, but you have many small holders who can make good use of every single penny they get right now (all the smaller cfc holders, evoke, nc., solar, raiden). Basically the only two entities with more isk than they know what to do with are PL and goons, so you can reliably apply the basic precepts of rational actor models to otec behaviour.
King Aires
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#143 - 2012-05-24 14:11:13 UTC  |  Edited by: King Aires
Akita T wrote:
SetrakDark wrote:
no one has yet put forth any kind of analysis to indicate that 80k, 100k, 150k, or 200k pu was the actual highest full capacity market-clearing price, though that obviously leaves it open to debate.

Well, actually, going by late autumn 2009 (so, 3 years ago, when population levels were ever so slightly lower than today, but with less people T2-capable, and with ISK harder to earn, with GTC prices at about HALF of today's level, 280-300m/month) pre-dominion clearance levels, depending on exactly how many tech vs prom/dyspro moons there are (guesstimating a conservative number), shifting the bottleneck from a pair of minerals to a single mineral, assuming the market will accept AT LEAST similar prices (as opposed to higher, since ISK is easier to come by and more people are T2-capable due to passage of time), tech was very likely to reach at least 200k at the equilibrium point after stockpiles were gone BEFORE you take into account any of the other factors previously mentioned.
Also consider that while existing stockpiles are indeed low, they're not quite gone yet, and this cartel price-fixing action effectively shifts most of the leftover stockpiles from speculators and old owners into current owner hands.
All things considered, it would not be at all surprising if all newly extracted tech would still clear the market today even at 300k or maybe 350k once the full stockpile shift has happened and people resigned themselves to the new T2 ship price levels, if CCP does nothing until that point in time.


That is all nice, but average daily users is dead flat with aug-dec 2009 with jan-mar 2012 at just over 32k. Also T3 ships were only introduced a few short summer months before the Tech bottleneck. Also the FOTM is tier 3 BC's and T3 ships.

I really think you overestimate the average man's willingness to pay for T2 prices in pvp. If the price of T2 goes too high, no one will pvp with them, then there is little ship loss. I think VV is right in that to keep the price this high the "cartel" is going to have to sit on a crap load of Tech. Maybe that is their plan, to crash the market back to 10k when everyone else is planning on astronomical increases?!
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
#144 - 2012-05-24 14:20:23 UTC  |  Edited by: Akita T
Daily users is indeed at very similar levels, but as I mentioned, GTC/PLEX prices today are nearly double due to the fact ISK is easier to come by (incursions, PI, better ship loadouts, all agents easier to access and giving higher rewards) and the average "ISK earner" SP has gone up (alongside their expertise level).
If anything, that is a strong indicator (not a guarantee, true) that people could accept actual T2 prices nearly double the previous levels if the tier3 BCs and T3 ships would not be an alternative at all at those price ranges.
These are not a sufficiently good alternative at the old price ranges to justify an noteworthy usage volume shift from T2 ships to those others IMO, so price ranges are likely to go up at least a bit compared to back then, and with the old price ranges, tech at 200k is fairly certain to be the bottom stable price, not the top one.
Again, not a certainty, but reasonable assumption.
In case CCP does not do anything soon, of course.
IMO, the main reason tech is not even higher is exactly this, the specter of the possibility that CCP might "do something soon" to "fix" it.
In fact, it's only a matter of when and how much, not if. We're pretty sure CCP has something in the pipeline for it (ring mining, for instance). We just don't know when it will go live and how easy will it be to get the bottleneck stuff (vs non-bottleneck stuff).
King Aires
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#145 - 2012-05-24 17:26:49 UTC
Akita T wrote:
"The Sky is almost certainly not going to fall on you tomorrow, unless of course God wills it to fall, then the sky is most certainly falling.


Way to give yourself an out there

btw, the price of Plex has only changed from its all time low in september 2009 of 275mil. For most of 2009 it was between 350 and 450mil and during fanfest it was spiking from manipulation.

So I don't see how your Plex is high = Tech can skyrocket theory works when the price of plex is not that out of line.
Llyandrian
Livestock Science Exchange
#146 - 2012-05-24 17:31:37 UTC

Seen a nice boost in T3 demand recently, perhaps this is the explanation.
TornSoul
BIG
#147 - 2012-05-24 20:24:15 UTC
Akita T wrote:

IMO, the main reason tech is not even higher is exactly this, the specter of the possibility that CCP might "do something soon" to "fix" it.


I have fond memories about the Tc "crash" when this was first announced.
Tc dropped some 20%-25% in 5 days or so.
Massive panic selling.

Oh btw, that was back when Tc was just breaking through 100K P

And look at it today Cool

SetrakDark
Doomheim
#148 - 2012-05-24 21:48:22 UTC
I agree with Akita about the long run. T2 ships are just too integral to a lot of success in anything beyond small gangs, and price in Eve is generally not a huge issue. I'd be willing to buy up to 250k if I thought people were similarly ready to accept that price, after that point I'd need to see or do some fundamental analysis about t2 demand before I was willing to risk any more bets on the price.

That said, the current run up came at a particularly bad time and all signs point to an imminent collapse of the price over the short term. I am very excited because catching falling knives is one of the most thrilling elements of the market game. Best of luck to everyone.
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
#149 - 2012-05-24 23:30:58 UTC  |  Edited by: Akita T
King Aires wrote:
Akita T wrote:
"The Sky is almost certainly not going to fall on you tomorrow, unless of course God wills it to fall, then the sky is most certainly falling.

Way to give yourself an out there

More like "there are good odds that the sky will not fall in the next 4 months, but there's a decent chance it will fall in about 6 months, and it eventually has to fall either way ; we also don't know what the damage will be when it falls".
But generally, yea, what you said.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#150 - 2012-05-27 00:12:45 UTC
So, my dumb question was not that dumb after all, eh?
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
#151 - 2012-05-27 00:16:26 UTC  |  Edited by: Akita T
Well, sure, 3*X at 150k is better than 1*X at 250k, but worse than 2*X at 250k, so the question is, exactly how many could you sell at which price levels ?
The volume of technetium traded seems to be affected very little by its price, with volumes at 100k not radically higher than technetium at 200k (certainly nowhere near a halfing of trade volume).
Take the concrete example of natural diamonds in the real world. They quite literally create artificial scarcity, because they can make more money that way, especially when also combined with clever and persistent marketing.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#152 - 2012-05-27 00:21:49 UTC
Well, more than the "3x 150k" etc., the question actually implied prices had no reason not to crash after a while. Pirate
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
#153 - 2012-05-27 00:28:04 UTC
If the majority of tech extractors just decided "eh, screw it, we're only going to sell half our tech and use the rest internally or just sit on it", you can bet the stable price would be close to double of the stable price of selling it all, so they'd make about the same ISK but also have truckloads of leftover tech for internal use.
But that would be extremely difficult to pull off.
The simpler alternative is to just stick with a stable price they're happy with and wait it out until all stockpiles of non-extractors have been completely exhausted. Again, technetium traded volume has not shrunk radically from the days it used to cost less than 100k ISK per unit, so all in all, by sticking to a 200k price level, they'd eventually be the only sellers and still make more ISK even if they start getting stockpiles of their own.
That's not easy to pull off either, due to the smaller producers being in urgent need of liquid funds, but far easier than the alternative.
AnakieNine
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#154 - 2012-05-27 03:03:15 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
So, my dumb question was not that dumb after all, eh?



Some people aren't in the cartel. Me included :)

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#155 - 2012-05-27 20:04:46 UTC
Isn't it amazing how Technetium is religiously following trend lines I drawn months ago? (Feel free to check past charts).
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#156 - 2012-05-28 01:25:04 UTC
careful now, VV, go too hard and you might chafe.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#157 - 2012-05-28 05:58:02 UTC
corestwo wrote:
careful now, VV, go too hard and you might chafe.


Don't worry, I always carry an healthy amount of Nanite Repair Paste Blink
AnakieNine
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#158 - 2012-05-28 21:57:51 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Isn't it amazing how Technetium is religiously following trend lines I drawn months ago? (Feel free to check past charts).


I missed them VV but based on history I bet my sell patterns roughly match your graphs.

El Geo
Warcrows
Shattered Foundations
#159 - 2012-05-29 00:01:59 UTC
shame they arent doing it with neodymium aswell
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#160 - 2012-05-29 00:24:38 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha
AnakieNine wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Isn't it amazing how Technetium is religiously following trend lines I drawn months ago? (Feel free to check past charts).


I missed them VV but based on history I bet my sell patterns roughly match your graphs.



I just posted updated graphs both on Technetium and Nanotransistors. I am sure you will be able and see what is going on in there. Notice the 2W pin bar on the Nanos weekly chart and thus its projected target.