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Dominion market analysis : sky's the limit on technetium (long term)

Author
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
#101 - 2012-05-02 05:05:30 UTC
So basically, cartel plans were delayed a few days ? :)
Liberty Eternal
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#102 - 2012-05-02 06:23:25 UTC
Darth Tickles wrote:
Looks like the bottom is ready to fall out of tech and derivatives.



Cracks are showing in many markets but with all the recent noise it is difficult to know what to think of it. With a bit of luck we will see a hilarious parallel of the morphite debacle.
Darth Tickles
Doomheim
#103 - 2012-05-02 11:18:39 UTC
Yup, I'm far from doomcalling here. I just wanted to point out that in what is largely a psychological game internally and externally, the burn jita event may have made it significantly easier for buyers not to accept a new higher price range and similarly harder for cartel members to not begin to doubt, distrust or outright cheat.

I know eve-o gets a lot of knee-jerk anti-goon comments, but this is far from that. I'm just hopeful because a tougher ride for price control efforts just makes for a more interesting subject and volatile price.
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#104 - 2012-05-03 02:29:03 UTC
TornSoul wrote:
Dominion market analysis : sky's the limit on technetium (long term) started by Akita T

I think this one deserves to stay alive P



2 words

Ring Mining


Deal with IT.
Darth Tickles
Doomheim
#105 - 2012-05-03 03:07:24 UTC
One question

When?
Nomad I
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#106 - 2012-05-07 06:27:07 UTC
I examined the amount of traded tech in Jita and the trend is clear. The actual traded amount of tech is 20% lower than in the best times. (10day avg) The cartel is working until now, but stockpiling is ongoing. I examined the traded amount of nanotranistors too and even this went down. Actually since the price went up to 10k ISK the amount of traded nanotransistors went rapidly down as well as the tech.

There are maybe 3 causes for this:

1) The high prices on T1 minerals is lowering the demand for T2 too
2) The high price on tech is lowering the demand for T2
3) The high price on tech isn't for many reaction pos owners affordable. They haven't the liquidity

What do you think?
Darth Tickles
Doomheim
#107 - 2012-05-07 16:42:05 UTC
Idk exactly when the market will stop clearing, but I am supremely confident that every unit produced will still be consumed at 200k pu, and all we`re seeing is fluctuations associated with the big change engineered by the cartel.

That said, for the first time in a long time I do not have a good `feel`for what`s going on in the market, and am currently waiting to see how things play out before I make another market move, if I make another market move. I see a lot of downward pressure on nanos and tech itself, but sellers of raw tech are showing surprising discipline in not chasing the price of raw tech back down.

It will be an interesting week or two watching how it all plays out.
Nomad I
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#108 - 2012-05-08 22:26:39 UTC  |  Edited by: Nomad I
The amount of sold tech per day is lowering. The level for a 10d avg is at 750k per day. Nanotransistors have a better future. The total size of all buy orders is much greater than the total size of all sell orders and the amount of traded Nanotransistors is raising.

That is good news for Tech moon owners.
Darth Tickles
Doomheim
#109 - 2012-05-08 22:48:54 UTC
Generally lower tech volume can just mean more being reacted directly by primary producers, which is more plausible the longer the moons are held by the same alliance like we have had for a long time.

I don't put much stock in the daily volume of tech. The daily volume of nanos and fullerieds, on the other had, are still as relevant as they always were.

Again, I'm not saying I know either way right now, I just don;t think that's a valid way to analyze the situation.
Nomad I
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#110 - 2012-05-09 07:16:49 UTC
It doesn't matter where the tech is processed. In the end it's the total market value that gives you the profit. And when nanotransistors don't give an noticeable additional profit because of the tower and transport cost, moon goo owners will not do it.
Darth Tickles
Doomheim
#111 - 2012-05-09 12:45:34 UTC
Nomad I wrote:
It doesn't matter where the tech is processed. In the end it's the total market value that gives you the profit. And when nanotransistors don't give an noticeable additional profit because of the tower and transport cost, moon goo owners will not do it.


nonresponsive
TornSoul
BIG
#112 - 2012-05-16 20:53:25 UTC
Is the cartel already failing?

Black Madness
Natural Born Builders
New Eden Gambling Alliance
#113 - 2012-05-17 04:41:34 UTC
TornSoul wrote:
Is the cartel already failing?



Goons tired to take care of tech ?
SetrakDark
Doomheim
#114 - 2012-05-17 13:27:21 UTC
It's a standoff between buyers accepting the new price and sellers maintaining it. Theoretically it's easier for the smaller number of sellers to collude to fix the price, and so far they've managed to stay firm.

However, there is a lot of pressure building up in raw tech, and while time is on the side of the cartel, it does constantly wear away at their collusion. Buyers will eventually accept the new price, if the cartel doesn't crack first.

I have noticed somebody coming by to clear out the sells below 200k pu, so if you're a primary producer who needs quick cash, just list at 199999.99 instead of selling to a buy order, and whomever is keeping the price nice and tidy will scoop it up from you.
Nomad I
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#115 - 2012-05-18 08:47:03 UTC  |  Edited by: Nomad I
SetrakDark wrote:
It's a standoff between buyers accepting the new price and sellers maintaining it. Theoretically it's easier for the smaller number of sellers to collude to fix the price, and so far they've managed to stay firm.

However, there is a lot of pressure building up in raw tech, and while time is on the side of the cartel, it does constantly wear away at their collusion. Buyers will eventually accept the new price, if the cartel doesn't crack first.

I have noticed somebody coming by to clear out the sells below 200k pu, so if you're a primary producer who needs quick cash, just list at 199999.99 instead of selling to a buy order, and whomever is keeping the price nice and tidy will scoop it up from you.


Confirmed. Some sellers doing their bussiness not at the OTEC conditions. If this continues, the OTEC will be soon history. Yhe trend was allready in place when last week a lot of sellers sold the tech at 195k .
De Guillaume
Van Lanschot Banking
Van Lanschot
#116 - 2012-05-18 12:37:35 UTC  |  Edited by: De Guillaume
you wants intersting, i was checking out my assets and just found I have about 6b isk worth of tec , that being what it was valued when i first got it, if i remember correctly, whatever is pushing the prices higher, cheers, keep it up

the only issue is its in 00 space. mmm

fyi, everyone not in the cartle should all gang up and take it from them. so unfair they hold pretty much all of the tec, i am jealous

Has you ever went so far as chose to go even use want to look more like do?

EvilweaselSA
GoonCorp
Goonswarm Federation
#117 - 2012-05-18 17:37:36 UTC
it seems we broke the t2 market entirely by jacking up the prices from 120k to 200k in three months

oops
EvilweaselSA
GoonCorp
Goonswarm Federation
#118 - 2012-05-18 17:38:39 UTC
like most t2 stuff is hilariously underpriced now the shock just keeps slowly rippling through and we're going to see a sudden shortage of t2 stuff in a little while
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#119 - 2012-05-18 17:42:10 UTC
yeah, even the "my time is free" pubbies that exist in abundance in the invention markets can recognize when they're literally losing money on invention.




I mean, probably.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

SetrakDark
Doomheim
#120 - 2012-05-18 17:44:55 UTC
EvilweaselSA wrote:
like most t2 stuff is hilariously underpriced now the shock just keeps slowly rippling through and we're going to see a sudden shortage of t2 stuff in a little while


That's exactly it. People all down the line say "**** it, I'm not paying for that", but they eventually will, at least at ~200k pu. Just a matter of who cracks first, buyers or sellers.

Interesting times.