Market Discussions

I dont think it's as unreasonable to form a cartel as one might think; sure you have to overcome the "establishment opposition" of non complaint members, but especially for the goons, they dont exactly need the Tech money, its just the icing on the cake. Also, while your average goon couldnt even conceive of something like this, there are certainly some brilliant minds at the head of the goon swarm who are undoubtedly playing the long game.

Cartels have been formed around harder to control things with less profit guarantee, just look at the Alloyed Tritanium Bar cartell of 2009

CCP attempted to fix dyspro and are intending to fix tech because it makes for ****** gameplay IN NULLSEC; it has nothing to do with the overall price of goods or some amorphous "breaking the economy" concern.

As to the "cartel", demand is basically fixed up to an unknown price point, after which it will decline slowly with price as certain ships become replaceable with t1 or t3 variants. I am supremely confident that we haven't yet reached that point. What the cartel does is allow them to search out the general area of that point by collectively testing new price points instead of flooding the market every time the market starts pushing to a new price point. Instead of having to clear the market three times for every 10k pu jump, you can just jump it 10s of ks at a time, somewhat confident that the other suppliers will coordinate with you to wait and see if the new price point sticks.

The result is just a faster rise to an inevitable equilibrium, skipping dozens of lengthy and tedious ups and downs that an undirected market-driven process would take. It is, in essence, speculation at its finest. Also, as someone who has recently ridden the mu8ltiple ups and downs to make 20% on every 10% rise: **** you, assholes.

It sounds like you are saying that you think there is a point where in-game market manipulation will cause CCP to step in. Not just this specific instance, but in general.

Where do you think that line is ?

Assuming that OTEC is as successful as Goons want it to be and OTEC controls 80% of the Tech production in EVE, where do you think the breaking point is for CCP involvement ?

300k ? 400k ? 500k ?

The last time this happened (dysp/prom), they had just barely broken past 200k, they were NOT heavily regionalized, and Dominion included heavy reshuffling of stuff to make them less valuable (in the process setting the stage for this current SNAFU).
I'd say CCP is already well past the "we should really do something about it" threshold if the price level is succesfully maintained.
The question is only whether they have learned enough from the last time to know better than knee-jerk too much in the opposite extreme, what they might have partially planned to address this already, and how soon they could implement it safely.

Asking someone to predict CCP's actions based on the players is like asking someone to predict what God will do. In this context, God actually exists, but that doesn't make predicting Its actions any easier.

The only definitive statement I'd be willing to make is that technetium will drop in price in the future and this drop in price will coincide with, at the very earliest, the announcement of a firm date for the introduction of ring mining.

Does anyone know what is the general assumed amount of Tech moons in the game ?

Currently there is only just around 600k units of Tech on sell orders in Jita.
While the recent daily amount bought is around 1M units.

It seems to me a single person with some isk can completely play this market, which is probably happening too i would guess.

Some other thought that crossed my mind.

Lets say :
Cartel of alliances controls all tech in game.
Decide to completely stop selling tech to jita market
Hereby reserving T2 ships for alliances only.

A minimum of around 230 publicly known locations (552k/day).
A distant past estimate of most likely actual count of around 360-380 (864k-912k/day).
A still borderline believable maximum moon count of around 450-480 (1.08m-1.15m/day).

The overwhelming vast majority of raw technetium trade happens in Jita.
A high portion of it used to be sold raw to buy orders without being reacted by the extractor.
A noteworthy percentage of it is later resold raw at a higher price by whoever purchased it without intention to react.

Interesting.

Also tnx Akita.

NCdot threw in the towel against us and so we magnanimously left them five moons.


Their supply is not exactly what one might call "significant" as a result.

Your argument, or what appears to be your argument, is that the reduced volume as a result of burn jita somehow broke the back of the cartel.



This argument might hold more water if the reduced volume hadn't been in effect across almost the entire market.