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Dominion market analysis : sky's the limit on technetium (long term)

Author
Sigras
Conglomo
#81 - 2012-04-25 09:09:57 UTC
I dont think it's as unreasonable to form a cartel as one might think; sure you have to overcome the "establishment opposition" of non complaint members, but especially for the goons, they dont exactly need the Tech money, its just the icing on the cake. Also, while your average goon couldnt even conceive of something like this, there are certainly some brilliant minds at the head of the goon swarm who are undoubtedly playing the long game.

Cartels have been formed around harder to control things with less profit guarantee, just look at the Alloyed Tritanium Bar cartell of 2009
papamike
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#82 - 2012-04-25 10:54:45 UTC  |  Edited by: papamike
Liberty Eternal wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:

I don't see it as a bad thing. The moons are there to be taken. If people don't feel pressed enough to go there and fight for them it's because they don't want or don't deserve them enough.



Come on, you can't seriously expect the remaining 95% of EVE players to take the game as seriously as the goons do? We can't kill that which has no life Blink


I remember 2007-8 Goons saying much the same thing about BoB. We all thought it was impossible back then because of similar reasons why people think Goons are invincible now, right from "they're too big/powerful ingame" to "CCP bankrolls them". Perhaps out of the ashes of that intergalactic space-nerd empire rose an even more demented beast, but I doubt it is invincible.

Remember "If it bleeds, we can kill it"
Darth Tickles
Doomheim
#83 - 2012-04-25 12:47:23 UTC
CCP attempted to fix dyspro and are intending to fix tech because it makes for ****** gameplay IN NULLSEC; it has nothing to do with the overall price of goods or some amorphous "breaking the economy" concern.

As to the "cartel", demand is basically fixed up to an unknown price point, after which it will decline slowly with price as certain ships become replaceable with t1 or t3 variants. I am supremely confident that we haven't yet reached that point. What the cartel does is allow them to search out the general area of that point by collectively testing new price points instead of flooding the market every time the market starts pushing to a new price point. Instead of having to clear the market three times for every 10k pu jump, you can just jump it 10s of ks at a time, somewhat confident that the other suppliers will coordinate with you to wait and see if the new price point sticks.

The result is just a faster rise to an inevitable equilibrium, skipping dozens of lengthy and tedious ups and downs that an undirected market-driven process would take. It is, in essence, speculation at its finest. Also, as someone who has recently ridden the mu8ltiple ups and downs to make 20% on every 10% rise: **** you, assholes.
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
#84 - 2012-04-25 14:07:01 UTC  |  Edited by: Akita T
corestwo wrote:
That's a lot of words to say "It will go as high as we can damn well get it to go before CCP finally steps in".

You can't have missed the "too complicated" bit in the post though :)
It was basically "I can't tell you for sure, but if you INSIST on an answer, here is my best GUESS for now, and what can happen to make that guess end up being wrong" (easily verifiable possible events).

Well, yes, the gist of it might have been that "it will go as high as possible until CCP stops it".
However, it contained some hints as to how high that max value might reasonably be so that internal OTEC "friendly" same-price time-of-placement competition would not make it self-destruct in the long run.
And a warning that this will probably make CCP act sooner.
Also it contained the reasoning behind what else might happen until that time that CCP decides to intervene (what else goes down and why plus a very rough estimate of about how much).
Go2
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#85 - 2012-04-25 20:29:04 UTC
Akita T wrote:
corestwo wrote:
That's a lot of words to say "It will go as high as we can damn well get it to go before CCP finally steps in".

You can't have missed the "too complicated" bit in the post though :)
It was basically "I can't tell you for sure, but if you INSIST on an answer, here is my best GUESS for now, and what can happen to make that guess end up being wrong" (easily verifiable possible events).

Well, yes, the gist of it might have been that "it will go as high as possible until CCP stops it".
However, it contained some hints as to how high that max value might reasonably be so that internal OTEC "friendly" same-price time-of-placement competition would not make it self-destruct in the long run.
And a warning that this will probably make CCP act sooner.
Also it contained the reasoning behind what else might happen until that time that CCP decides to intervene (what else goes down and why plus a very rough estimate of about how much).


It sounds like you are saying that you think there is a point where in-game market manipulation will cause CCP to step in. Not just this specific instance, but in general.

Where do you think that line is ?

Assuming that OTEC is as successful as Goons want it to be and OTEC controls 80% of the Tech production in EVE, where do you think the breaking point is for CCP involvement ?

300k ? 400k ? 500k ?
Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#86 - 2012-04-25 20:59:50 UTC
I understand we've solidly broken the 200k barrier, with buys following.

:happysun:

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
#87 - 2012-04-25 21:41:01 UTC
Go2 wrote:
It sounds like you are saying that you think there is a point where in-game market manipulation will cause CCP to step in. Not just this specific instance, but in general. Where do you think that line is ?

The last time this happened (dysp/prom), they had just barely broken past 200k, they were NOT heavily regionalized, and Dominion included heavy reshuffling of stuff to make them less valuable (in the process setting the stage for this current SNAFU).
I'd say CCP is already well past the "we should really do something about it" threshold if the price level is succesfully maintained.
The question is only whether they have learned enough from the last time to know better than knee-jerk too much in the opposite extreme, what they might have partially planned to address this already, and how soon they could implement it safely.
cuoredipietra famedoro
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#88 - 2012-04-25 21:57:52 UTC
since CCP hinted @ ring mining moon goo during FF, I wouldn't be suprised of seeing technetium price taking a dive at some point in the future.

And, like Akita said, it is likely that CCP is already aware of the problem and working of it.

Not that i don't like seeing cartels arise in New Eden (nice move goonies), but i like cartel's tears more.


Caeci caecos ducentes 

corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#89 - 2012-04-25 22:08:56 UTC
Asking someone to predict CCP's actions based on the players is like asking someone to predict what God will do. In this context, God actually exists, but that doesn't make predicting Its actions any easier.

The only definitive statement I'd be willing to make is that technetium will drop in price in the future and this drop in price will coincide with, at the very earliest, the announcement of a firm date for the introduction of ring mining.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

cuoredipietra famedoro
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#90 - 2012-04-25 22:13:28 UTC
corestwo wrote:
Asking someone to predict CCP's actions based on the players is like asking someone to predict what God will do. In this context, God actually exists, but that doesn't make predicting Its actions any easier.

The only definitive statement I'd be willing to make is that technetium will drop in price in the future and this drop in price will coincide with, at the very earliest, the announcement of a firm date for the introduction of ring mining.



Absolutely agree on this. The cartel was a nice move anyway.

Caeci caecos ducentes 

Smartacus
Guys With Strippers
#91 - 2012-04-26 21:36:34 UTC
Does anyone know what is the general assumed amount of Tech moons in the game ?

Currently there is only just around 600k units of Tech on sell orders in Jita.
While the recent daily amount bought is around 1M units.

It seems to me a single person with some isk can completely play this market, which is probably happening too i would guess.

Some other thought that crossed my mind.

Lets say :
Cartel of alliances controls all tech in game.
Decide to completely stop selling tech to jita market
Hereby reserving T2 ships for alliances only.
OllieNorth
Recidivists Incorporated
#92 - 2012-04-26 21:48:10 UTC
I like that thought. The idea of a player group significantly affecting EVE-wide play is pretty awesome. I hope they don't hit it with the nerf-bat too quickly. Now, I like the idea of eventual ring-mining so that we can have SOME T2 ships around, but I really enjoy watching everything move in unusual directions.
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
#93 - 2012-04-26 23:55:56 UTC
Smartacus wrote:
Does anyone know what is the general assumed amount of Tech moons in the game ?

A minimum of around 230 publicly known locations (552k/day).
A distant past estimate of most likely actual count of around 360-380 (864k-912k/day).
A still borderline believable maximum moon count of around 450-480 (1.08m-1.15m/day).

The overwhelming vast majority of raw technetium trade happens in Jita.
A high portion of it used to be sold raw to buy orders without being reacted by the extractor.
A noteworthy percentage of it is later resold raw at a higher price by whoever purchased it without intention to react.
Sensei Cohiba
Lai Dai Industrial Services
#94 - 2012-04-27 06:50:58 UTC
I can confirm that ncdot leadership channels have instructed their corps to not list for below 199kpu.

Smartacus
Guys With Strippers
#95 - 2012-04-27 11:18:30 UTC
Interesting.

Also tnx Akita.
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
#96 - 2012-04-29 00:53:29 UTC
Sensei Cohiba wrote:
I can confirm that ncdot leadership channels have instructed their corps to not list for below 199kpu.

Why not 300k just for lulz ? Twisted
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#97 - 2012-04-29 02:04:23 UTC
Akita T wrote:
Sensei Cohiba wrote:
I can confirm that ncdot leadership channels have instructed their corps to not list for below 199kpu.

Why not 300k just for lulz ? Twisted


NCdot threw in the towel against us and so we magnanimously left them five moons.


Their supply is not exactly what one might call "significant" as a result.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Darth Tickles
Doomheim
#98 - 2012-05-02 04:00:46 UTC
Looks like the bottom is ready to fall out of tech and derivatives.

Suppliers ramping the price up is based on a game of chicken between themselves and the buyers to see who will give in first. While sellers as a cartel have an advantage of being able to coordinate, I think the Jita weekend may have played the buyers' hand for them, and people just decided to skip buying high priced tech and derivatives from an occupied Jita. Where they may have individually accepted the new price range set and raced to be the first to cash in on rising t2 prices, they instead collectively faced the same disincentives of high prices and gank risk.

I'd like to see it fall just because it would create a new decision dynamic in the cartel, where now you have to consider internal and external reputation of the cartel in terms of effectiveness. It will be interesting either way though.
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#99 - 2012-05-02 04:17:13 UTC
Your argument, or what appears to be your argument, is that the reduced volume as a result of burn jita somehow broke the back of the cartel.



This argument might hold more water if the reduced volume hadn't been in effect across almost the entire market. Ugh

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Darth Tickles
Doomheim
#100 - 2012-05-02 04:55:37 UTC
Except the entire market wasn't in a similar stare-down over purposefully and publicly ramped-up prices.

I'll reread it in the morning, but it seems pretty clear and simple to me, whether you agree or not aside.