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Dominion market analysis : sky's the limit on technetium (long term)

Author
TornSoul
BIG
#1 - 2011-09-12 19:30:24 UTC
Dominion market analysis : sky's the limit on technetium (long term) started by Akita T

I think this one deserves to stay alive P

TornSoul
BIG
#2 - 2011-09-12 19:32:13 UTC
Tc's been sticking at 100K for awhile now.

Breakout to happen soon (within a week or two) - Is my purely guesstimated err.. guess.

Soldarius
Dreddit
Test Alliance Please Ignore
#3 - 2011-09-14 01:46:24 UTC
TornSoul wrote:
Tc's been sticking at 100K for awhile now.

Breakout to happen soon (within a week or two) - Is my purely guesstimated err.. guess.



Based on what? Obvious manipulation attempt is obvious.

http://youtu.be/YVkUvmDQ3HY

Loney
CyberDyne R-D
Artificial Intellagence
#4 - 2011-09-14 02:47:12 UTC
Soldarius wrote:
TornSoul wrote:
Tc's been sticking at 100K for awhile now.

Breakout to happen soon (within a week or two) - Is my purely guesstimated err.. guess.



Based on what? Obvious manipulation attempt is obvious.



Based on my thoughts of buying 1m Tech tomorrow... or soon!

+ Monthly Meetup - DC / VA / MD Area - Pass The Word +

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=508844

Chevalleis
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#5 - 2011-09-14 03:09:12 UTC
Loney wrote:



or soon™!

TornSoul
BIG
#6 - 2011-09-14 15:28:19 UTC
Soldarius wrote:
TornSoul wrote:
Tc's been sticking at 100K for awhile now.

Breakout to happen soon (within a week or two) - Is my purely guesstimated err.. guess.



Based on what? Obvious manipulation attempt is obvious.


As said, it's a guess (on the timeframe)

That it *will* happen I have no doubt about, baring any CCP intervention.

The upwards pressure on Tc hasn't changed - Read the original forum thread for the reasons why.

As such, prices will go up again (now that the first scare is over) - Just a matter of when - Not "if".




Elise DarkStar
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#7 - 2011-09-14 16:00:25 UTC
I think it is a matter of "if", in that demand across the board has eaten ****. If the numbers pickup and people start blowing up spaceships again, then we'll see that bottleneck in action, and I think it will really pop now that we've chewed through a lot of stockpiles. However, this outcome depends on if this is just an exaggerated seasonal slump or if, in fact, Eve really is dying (exaggerating of course, but you know what I mean).
TornSoul
BIG
#8 - 2011-09-14 17:02:27 UTC
Elise DarkStar wrote:
However, this outcome depends on if this is just an exaggerated seasonal slump or if, in fact, Eve really is dying (exaggerating of course, but you know what I mean).


I don't think it's an _exaggerated_ seasonal slump - But just the usual seasonal slump *combined* with the lack of new content in the Incarna expansion to draw in new/old players (thus making it look like an exaggerated slump)

Regardless - The numbers would have to further fall catastrophically before the Tc bottleneck would become a paper bottleneck only.

Elise DarkStar
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#9 - 2011-09-14 17:13:55 UTC
TornSoul wrote:
I don't think it's an _exaggerated_ seasonal slump - But just the usual seasonal slump *combined* with the lack of new content in the Incarna expansion to draw in new/old players (thus making it look like an exaggerated slump)


Ya, that's precisely what I meant. Sorry if that was worded poorly.
Wabs
Centraal Justitieel Incasso Bureau
#10 - 2011-09-19 21:02:56 UTC
Why did tech drop 6k in a day or two after staying at about 100k for weeks....? Any reason? Roll
Taedrin
Virtues Corporation
#11 - 2011-09-20 21:45:05 UTC
Crash and burn, baby. Crash and BUUUUUUURRRRRNNNNN.


(I never really enjoyed having to carry more than a billion ISK worth of reaction materials in my hauler)
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
#12 - 2011-09-20 23:41:23 UTC  |  Edited by: Akita T
The funny part is that most of the other moonmins don't seem to be picking up the slack in price, the technetium traded volume is not spiking, the corresponding advanced materials have been slowly drifting downwards for weeks or even months earlier, and quite a few T2 ships have been trending downwards too (with the noteworthy exception of the Hulk, which is surprisingly strong on an upwards trajectory lately).

To me, all of that spells a significant demand drop for T2 ships in general...
...which would be understandable given the user count drop EVE has been experiencing lately (and for those still around, a general "shooty" activity level drop).
I can't say I understand what the deal with Hulks might be though. Then again, haven't been around that much for the past 3 months or so.

I fully expect most of the other moon minerals to start drifting downwards sooner or later too.
Too bad for trader wallets that you can't short in EVE, eh ?
Elise DarkStar
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#13 - 2011-09-21 00:15:04 UTC
Akita T wrote:
Too bad for trader wallets that you can't short in EVE, eh ?


Relying on general upward trends sucks balls, especially when demand is eating **** across the board.

Not happy.
Soldarius
Dreddit
Test Alliance Please Ignore
#14 - 2011-09-21 02:06:23 UTC
I recall reading a post from a former NC higher level mucky-muck (or perhaps it was Mittani, cbb to go find it again) that the DRF has been flooding the market with tech, which would exert a downward pressure on price. But since I don't usually watch moongoo, I could be wrong on the effect.

Either way, they [DRF] is eager to cash in on the moongoo tech *****.

http://youtu.be/YVkUvmDQ3HY

Cyniac
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#15 - 2011-09-21 17:01:41 UTC
Akita T wrote:
To me, all of that spells a significant demand drop for T2 ships in general...
...which would be understandable given the user count drop EVE has been experiencing lately (and for those still around, a general "shooty" activity level drop).
I can't say I understand what the deal with Hulks might be though. Then again, haven't been around that much for the past 3 months or so.


As a ship manufacturer I'm confirming that there seems to be a slump in ship sales - it's not critical but it's certainly noticeable, ships take longer to move and prices are dropping because of oversupply. Not a great business to be in right now. (Though I'll take a look at the hulk - hulks have always had skin tight margins, they might just be adjusting to a more normal level)




Netheranthem
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#16 - 2011-09-23 21:45:13 UTC  |  Edited by: Netheranthem
This seems surreal. I mean, tech has a 7% margin on the market since one or two days.
It would seem like some people have a lot (Not necessarily a lot for an alliance, since they harvest it at a 100/hour rate but a lot ISK-wise) of tech to sell at once, but the quantity traded doesn't tell us about it, except that there is a small increase in quantity.
So, I told myself, whatever, let's take those billions from the market. Let's just hope it doesn't collapse on me... again.

Also you might have seen those buy orders for 1 unit increasing the buy price artificially, all that leads me to think some guys have tech to sell, and that manufacturers also try to buy from the buy orders now, since the selling price is staying about the same.
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
#17 - 2011-10-04 00:50:36 UTC
Odd how Nanotransistors had a blip but Technetium didn't...
Tasko Pal
Spallated Garniferous Schist
#18 - 2011-10-04 01:28:16 UTC
I never remember, but with the end of summer, we should be seeing an increasing in player activity with the return of students to school, right?

So from what I gather, there's no big changes on the horizon unless more people come in, CCP adds content, or someone big gets greedy and/or organized in the northwest.
Elise DarkStar
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#19 - 2011-10-04 01:45:28 UTC
The "back to school" bump has been muted due to generally falling numbers from incarna.

Tech and derivatives have been dominated by stockpiles being cashed in. Nano stockpiles may have run out, whereas fullerides and straight tech have not yet done so.
Tasko Pal
Spallated Garniferous Schist
#20 - 2011-10-04 03:41:11 UTC
Thanks for the info Elise.
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