Market Discussions

Fixed.

We're in for a hell of a ride. Whoever has built up mineral stocks is going to get rich.

Be a little careful with the 40% figure as strictly speaking its from reprocessing modules etc not specifically loot so includes stuff from module compressors.

QFT A significant quantity of trit is used to produce modules to compress the trit, which are then shipped to 0.0 and reprocessed.

I agree. There is nothing on the horizon that has a lowering effect on the price of tritanium.

-Anything with a blueprint no longer drops as loot. Higher demand from both the shortfall and the increased manufacturing.

-The new wardec changes will ensure far greater demand. Many traders, miners and manufacturers will face war decs that can not be escaped through dec shield mechanics. And the wardec history will limit how often they flee from it. Too long of a list of losses and you'll be a primary target for every new corporation looking to get it's feet wet in pvp.

-Much more loss in ships and mods with the new mercenary defense options for corporations under war declaration.

-Null changes.

-A current trend upwards with none of the previously mentioned factors.

-Increased activity in general from the new expansion.

-Much more ISK in circulation.

-Bot nuking from CCP.

Buy and hold. It will stabilize eventually but uncertainty of future prices will see more speculators buy as the expansion closes in on release.

Purely for sake of argument rather than any particularly strong feelings either way, may I present reasons why the limit for trit is somewhere below the sky:

• 1) I just locked in build prices for the next four freighters at 6isk - this alone guarantees trit will tank over the next 24 days.
• 2) War dec changes are irrelevant, dec shields have only recently been declared non-exploit. A year ago all it took to stomp on small indy corp was 2m isk and a 48 hour wait. With war dec changes all it'll take (if I've read right, and to be fair I've not paid much attention lately) is 20m and a 24 hour wait. Ie. small corps will get stomped on if they are stupid, gobby, or unlucky - which is just as it was a year or so ago.
• 3) Trit is the easiest and quickest mineral to ramp up production as market forces dictate. Veld is *everywhere* in humongous quantities. Trit is not limited by supply in the slightest, it's only limited by the number of people willing to collect it - and history shows that miners are very, very cheap. We play a game where people - actual real humans - will voluntarily mine *ice* for gods sake.

But mostly, it's reason (1).

in empire scord is often one of if not the most profitable ore

Really, it just depends on what players choose to do to actually make their ISK. For people who rely on fixed income sources like missions and ratting, these price rises and general inflation is -really- going to suck. But for traders, investors, and, to some extent, manufacturers, the money will continue to flow. You are right however that the richest/oldest players will benefit most from this, but that doesn't mean that newer trader/investor types such as yours truly won't be making a handsome profit from this situation. :)

Look up Malcanis Law

Yes, playing the game longer than others and being more clever will often result in having more isk, but whining over inflation is asinine, prices are getting closer to yesteryears prices on some things, the difference is there's more isk floating around. The playerbase wasn't 'wrecked' then, nor will it be now. Get the big boy pants on and figure out how to make some big bucks likenthe rest of us and you'll be able to happily pay market prices.

Anyway. I don't know how long trit can stay above 8.xx-9+ p/u. It will be profitable enough for miners to focus on and flood it back down a bit. Sustained I think 7.Xx is feasible, and it may well spike to 10 for a bit, but I don't see that long term. It will cause a pretty good deal of further inflation as well.

Just my opinion and conjecture, with no particular maths to back anything up.