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The Morphite bubble
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Amsterdam Conversations
Doomheim
#1 - 2012-04-03 05:28:40 UTC
Didn't see a thread on Morphite specifically.

But this mineral is probably the highest spiking one so far... Went up by 200% in just a few weeks. Does anyone else see pure stupidity in this?

About ~3m units of Morphite are traded a day in Jita, yet only ~400k of these come from alloys. This 8k/unit price basically implies drones account for 50% of the Morphite being dropped from rats.

Am I missing something here?
Brock Nelson
#2 - 2012-04-03 05:53:45 UTC
How do you know 400k of those comes from alloy?

Signature removed, CCP Phantom
Lucinda Hamu
Doomheim
#3 - 2012-04-03 07:07:44 UTC
Brock Nelson wrote:
How do you know 400k of those comes from alloy?


67% of statistics are made up on the spot. Didn't you know that?
Amsterdam Conversations
Doomheim
#4 - 2012-04-03 07:53:48 UTC
Brock Nelson wrote:
How do you know 400k of those comes from alloy?

How do you know 100% of those come from alloy?
Brock Nelson
#5 - 2012-04-03 08:17:16 UTC
Because OP said so?

Signature removed, CCP Phantom
Johnny Frecko
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#6 - 2012-04-03 10:33:10 UTC
Amsterdam Conversations wrote:


This 8k/unit price basically implies drones account for 50% of the Morphite being dropped from rats.

Am I missing something here?


why do people think that by cutting a supply in half it makes the price double?
why do you think that all morphite being used is traded in jita?
(i.e, all the morphite that's being used without even being traded in the drone regions?)
why are you making up statistics?

And to your answer - Speculation.
That's what drove the price to what some believe is a "too-high" mark.

johnny
Adunh Slavy
#7 - 2012-04-03 11:55:14 UTC
According to CCP quotes, from Soundwave on that tenton interview, 40% of high ends come from drones.

As for the price, who knows. What is the elasticity for morphite? Anyone know? Nope, maybe CCP has some ideas since they have all the data. We'll just have to wait and see.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt
Riley Moore
Sentinum Research
#8 - 2012-04-06 11:58:42 UTC  |  Edited by: Riley Moore
Morphite at 10k now, going to hit 15k in a few hours and possibly drop to 12k tonight as the first idiots dump. after that steady increase and probably hit my 30k orders.

Suck on that.


ps: it's not a bubble.

edit: it just hit 13k, I'm not sure if I want to keep my orders at 30k, may put them up at 75k

Large volumes of highly researched Ammo, drones, charges and ship bpo's. Biggest BPO store in EVE! https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=445524#post445524
Ticarus Hellbrandt
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#9 - 2012-04-06 12:44:51 UTC
that means opulent compound is underpriced considerably
Riley Moore
Sentinum Research
#10 - 2012-04-06 13:07:00 UTC
Ticarus Hellbrandt wrote:
that means ... is underpriced considerably



shut up

Large volumes of highly researched Ammo, drones, charges and ship bpo's. Biggest BPO store in EVE! https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=445524#post445524
Driftfire
Northern Star Enterprises
#11 - 2012-04-06 13:15:52 UTC
Anyone want to be a Star update the Eve-Market data with Morph prices. Cannot be into game ATM.

Thanks in advance....
Irisa Selenia
Doomheim
#12 - 2012-04-06 13:53:04 UTC
Ticarus Hellbrandt wrote:
that means opulent compound is underpriced considerably

**** you ******
Ticarus Hellbrandt
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#13 - 2012-04-06 14:47:12 UTC
Irisa Selenia wrote:
Ticarus Hellbrandt wrote:
that means opulent compound is underpriced considerably

**** you ******


my pleasure
Scrapyard Bob
EVE University
Ivy League
#14 - 2012-04-06 23:06:57 UTC
Riley Moore wrote:
Morphite at 10k now, going to hit 15k in a few hours and possibly drop to 12k tonight as the first idiots dump. after that steady increase and probably hit my 30k orders.


Running the numbers from supply side from Mercoxit mining in a T2 skiff and a 60% gang / orca / rorqual boost, I estimated it out at 4200 units mined per hour. If you assume that people won't bother skiff mining until it hits 60M/hr income per skiff, that gives you a price of about 14k for Morphite.

10k ISK/u = 42M/hr
15k ISK/u = 63M/hr
20k ISK/u = 84M/hr

So once things settle down in July, my guess would be somewhere around 15k.
Riley Moore
Sentinum Research
#15 - 2012-04-07 07:26:41 UTC
Scrapyard Bob wrote:
Riley Moore wrote:
Morphite at 10k now, going to hit 15k in a few hours and possibly drop to 12k tonight as the first idiots dump. after that steady increase and probably hit my 30k orders.


Running the numbers from supply side from Mercoxit mining in a T2 skiff and a 60% gang / orca / rorqual boost, I estimated it out at 4200 units mined per hour. If you assume that people won't bother skiff mining until it hits 60M/hr income per skiff, that gives you a price of about 14k for Morphite.

10k ISK/u = 42M/hr
15k ISK/u = 63M/hr
20k ISK/u = 84M/hr

So once things settle down in July, my guess would be somewhere around 15k.



I think most of us are looking at the high peaks rather than settling prices, but cool numbers none the less.

Btw, it's at 14k a unit today, on a saturday morning!

Large volumes of highly researched Ammo, drones, charges and ship bpo's. Biggest BPO store in EVE! https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=445524#post445524
Jackie Fisher
Syrkos Technologies
#16 - 2012-04-07 08:45:52 UTC
Adunh Slavy wrote:
According to CCP quotes, from Soundwave on that tenton interview, 40% of high ends come from drones.

The most recent mineral specific breakdown I'm aware of was nearly four years ago. At the time 22% of Morphite was from Drone Compounds.

Fear God and Thread Nought
Scrapyard Bob
EVE University
Ivy League
#17 - 2012-04-07 11:41:09 UTC
I had to EFT to get those numbers as I don't currently mine Morphite - so I'd be curious to know whether I'm high/low on units/hr per skiff.

High side numbers? Hard to say. I'm trying to think of a similar case since 2007. I wouldn't be surprised to see prices 2x above the long-term estimate though. Which would make that 25k ISK/u price in Rens yesterday look cheap.