Market Discussions

Depends on how the logis handle them, the "massive alpha" is not a guarantee.
Also consider defensive fleet boosters.

So the Goons want to do a suicide interdiction of Jita..

So the Goons want to do a suicide interdiction of Jita.

In past 24 hours Jita had 45000 jumps.

Lets half that for number of unique players. That gives us 22,500 jumps.

Lets figure 10% of those are "high value targets" (I'd personally put the number at more like 20% but ok). That means an average of 94 high value jump ins an hour

Lets figure the goons want to kill at least 10% of that number. We'll make this 10 deaths an hours.

Jita is a 0.9 system. A ship can normally get off one, but not two, volleys before getting concorded.

A T2 fit tornado Alphas about 11K with all skills V. A T1 fit alphas around 8000. A freighter has 200,000 EHP requiring 25 ships for the kill. A freighter has less EHP than a properly tanked Orca (by far the most common ship type around Jita these days).

This gives a minimum T1 fit op tempo of at least 250 ships/hour or 6000 ships/day. Assuming a cost of 50m ship this will give us a daily burn rate of 3 Trillion isk/day. Some of this will be offset by loot drops. Lets say half. The goon supposedly have a monthly income of around 1.5 trillion. If they have saved for this for six months, then burn Jita could run for about six days.

Keep in mind this is assuming a low ball ship costs, max skills and a descent recovery rate. All of this to blow up one in every hundred ships heading into Jita.

Conclusion: In a fight between the goons and the market, bet on the market.

Depends on how the logis handle them, the "massive alpha" is not a guarantee.

I think it was a big mistake for them to reveal their plans to begin with. If they really wanted maximum effect they shouldn't have said a word, or perhaps even just hinted at something but kept the details tight lipped. Now the only people that will be left in Jita when the end of April rolls around will be those completely oblivious. While I'm sure even that number will be higher than I expect, most people will just shrug and move to Amarr or whatever and continue going about their business.

I think it was a big mistake for them to reveal their plans to begin with. If they really wanted maximum effect they shouldn't have said a word, or perhaps even just hinted at something but kept the details tight lipped. Now the only people that will be left in Jita when the end of April rolls around will be those completely oblivious. While I'm sure even that number will be higher than I expect, most people will just shrug and move to Amarr or whatever and continue going about their business.

They do not need to suicide gank that many ships. Only enough that people stop jumping into Jita due to too high risk of a pricy Freighter/hauler loss.

Word will spread quickly, Jita commerce will be severely impacted and at that point those few clueless idiots that still do jump in can be ganked with fairly small effort.

(This of course all assumes Goons do what they claim they'll do... but otherwise it is fairly easy to predict the outcome of the planned action)

As to what happens after that will be the interesting bit... how long Goons keep it up? How will the market react? Will manufacturers and raw material producers start selling stuff at next door system? What will CCP do when the carebears (predictably) being their whine concert over the ganks?