Market Discussions

Or the actions of a lone rogue trader :p

Oh, this is brutal. Never in the history of Jita stupidity have so few lost so much so quickly

OK - to make it a level playing field some public knowledge: [

Pre Drone Nerf:
John Turbefield‏@CCP_Diagoras

40,146,724 - units of Morphite from refining in March. : ~1.3mil /day morph supplied. ( this include mining and drone poo )


John Turbefield‏@CCP_Diagoras

Mercoxit, daily average for Feb: 381k units. Last 7 days average: 927k units. Up 143.12%. ( 26 April )
From ( Feb ) 807k to ( late april ) 1965k a day.

So since the nerf Morph supply has gone up - a lot!....

You're so dead wrong it's not even funny, see the post above me.



This is just morphite; other minerals have room to rise by the plenty.


Over the next month or so, we'll see morphite oscillate up & down as miners flock to it (maxing out production as we have now) and flee from it (after it crashes like this). Eventually, adoption of mining in grav anomalies in 0.0 will become widespread enough that there will always be a guaranteed supply (the morphite roids you must mine out to clear an anomaly), which will act as a damper on the swings. At that point, historically speaking, mercoxit's best case is approximately equal to arkonor plus/minus a few million isk per hour, and the worst case is where grav mining alone really does flood the market and mercoxit is thus treated as a refuse product - something the anomaly miners pick up because they have to to clear the anomaly, not necessarily because they want to.

Can't estimate the best case price since that depends on where arkonor and/or bistot land, but the worst case price is exactly what it was before the spike - 3.5-5k/unit.

They are going to be very, very upset when they wake up tomorrow.

Although to be fair, if they were sensible and bought their Morphite back in January-March time then they will still be up, they just won't be selling it at >10k a unit. Should be interesting to see what it settles at though.

By the end of my rebuttal, no one is going to take you seriously. I hope you know that. I mean, no one took you seriously before, so they'll actually take you LESS seriously.

Back in March, 40 million units of morphite were produced, between mining and drone poo. We can safely assume that this amount is more or less consistent and had been for some time. That gives us a yield of ~1.33 million units per day, and was adequate to keep the price down in the 3-4k level until speculation started spiking it up.

According to the numbers Driftfire cited above, mining over the course of seven days recently - a few weeks back - produced ~1.9 million units of morphite, a considerable oversupply compared to previous levels. We can safely assume that this will tank the price; however, when it drops far enough supply drops off and prices rise, so miners come back, then it drops again, and so on.

After a time, prices reach equilibrium. Lets say for the sake of argument that this is 10k - its a nice round number, after all. Assuming that same earlier 1.9 million units mined, that makes the total monthly value of morphite out to be 570 billion isk, eve-wide.

Now that sounds like a nice fat number. It's really not - it's about half of Goonfleet's monthly technetium income. To make matters worse, unlike Technetium, morphite isn't controlled at the alliance level. Your miners have to mine it, and you can't tax them too heavily, or they simply won't. Naturally, some organizations are more or less generous than others, but lets say the average is 10%. We'll also assume for the naively hopeful sake of argument that miners don't simply skip out to lowsec to refine their ore, and so the corps and alliances involved receive all 10% of their tax.

Now the brighter readers out there have no doubt reached the obvious conclusion, but you seem to be a bit slow, so we'll spell it out. The ten percent tax taken out that is the corp's share is a mere 57 billion isk per month.

Now, 57 billion isk is hardly worth cartelling, is it? Certainly not, especially when controlling a significant portion would require holding enormous swathes of 0.0 space, no easy feat.

"But it's a cartel" you say! "Some mythical 0.0 entity takes over half of space, they control half the morphite supply, they can charge whatever they want!" Well, no, they don't. They control 5% of supply through their taxes. Their miners control the other 45%, and for a variety of reasons, that will make the cartel simply stop working, even without "the other half of Eve" out there. If you want a case study, just look at the old Northern Coalition. Sure Tech went up under them, but those were just normal market forces - an actual cartel, despite collectively controlling as much tech as we do now, was not possible. Imagine that times a thousand and you have our little thought experiment here.

Of course, this pile of words is rather invalidated by the fact that I'm about 99% sure that grav anomalies don't work the way you say anyway. So now you're a laughingstock for TWO reasons. As such, I suggest that, for your own good, you Stop Posting.

You took me serious enough that you wrote a 20 minute OCD manifesto. Most of it I didn't read to be honest. There is a thing about mining in EVE. It's really, really, really boring. There is another thing about Null sec mining in EVE. You never do it for yourself. You do it for your corp or alliance. I've done Null mining Ops. I never saw a single mineral from any of them.

I fully expect the price of Morphite to go like a roller coaster for the immediate and extended future. When Null alliances are feeling the pinch, they will brown nose to their members to go out and mine the stuff, take it to Jita and make a payday. When they are high on the hog, they will have their members out doing pew-pew. There is no longer a region of EVE that make bills on Morphite and Zydrine so there is no longer a region of EVE that will, through necessity keep the markets of New Eden supplied in Morphite. Because it isn't passive like Moon Goo it isn't quite as easy to just roll it out to Jita and get a fat pay day. This is why, MoonSwarm boy, nobody takes- You - serious. You don't do well at thinking like or speaking for the other 99% of EVE who don't have Technetium based wallets.

Nothing is stable. Inferno has only just begun. There's gonna be more surprises coming down the pike.

if you believe a word you typed here, you've lived in some really lousy null alliances, because I can't think of a time ever when goonfleet as a whole has had mandatory mining ops where the entire bounty goes to the corp.

i'll be sure to tell theta squad that no one voluntarily mines for themselves though. they'll be thrilled to know that they shouldn't actually be making 70-100m/hr.


ps - i'm still like 99.9% sure that you're wrong about how anomalies work anyway

this is literally the stupidest thing I have read in days on these forums go back to your shame hole

the entire point of industry upgrades is they can be put anywhere in 0.0 and are the same anywhere: the mining anoms have a specific setup and group of asteroids that does not vary