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Mad inflation

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Author
Mara Rinn
Cosmic Goo Convertor
#361 - 2012-03-13 09:29:29 UTC
Grumpy Owly wrote:
Seeing as plex is traded in the thousands per month roughly 14k to 15k per month in the months associated with the last quarter on the graph above, you cannot expect me to believe that is all from incursion runners?


The number of PLEX traded in in the order of 14k per month, certainly. The number of PLEX introduced into the game and the number of PLEX sunk out of the game will be significantly less than that number. Buy low, sell high: if you examine the market by selling PLEX to buy orders and buying PLEX from sell orders, you will determine in short order who is in the market. It would surprise me to find that more than half of PLEX trades are direct from PLEX seller to PLEX user. I expect the average velocity of PLEX is about 1.7 (and not less than 1.4).

There are around 1-2000 Incursion participants, some of whom will be buying PLEX for multiple accounts. Out of the folks I know, about two thirds are paying for more than one account, and of those most have more than two. So make of that what you will: 1700 incursion participants is already more than 10% of the PLEX trade market, even if only 2/3 of that number was actually PLEXing their account. Each of those participants is likely to be funding multiple accounts with PLEX. I expect that a quite significant portion of the PLEX-buying market will be Incursion-funded accounts with money to burn. My estimate is about 3000 accounts maintained with PLEX substantially paid for with Incursion ISK. No, I don't have stats because I don't have access to the database, and I have asked CCP Diagoras for those figures (though curiously enough, they haven't been provided, who'd have thunk? I'm working on Fermi Estimates based on numbers I do know.

Of the people I run Incursions with, about half are folks either running with their main in a null sec alliance, or running an alt that I know is associated with a null sec alliance character. That is to say that at least half of the people I'm running incursions with are blue or red flagged based on the last standings list I have recorded from my time in null sec.

You have no support for your numbers at all: how many pilots are ratting in null sec? What is the spread of incomes between those pilots? How many of them extend their game time with PLEX.

I was watching PLEX prices closely and noticed the very rapid drop when the Incursion interdiction started, along with the very rapid rise when the interdiction fizzled. Noone had to give up their subscription since the interdiction was so short-lived, but they weren't buying PLEX with the ISK they didn't have.

So people can either take your Incursion-supporting propaganda, or my first-person perspective on the matter. I run Incursions. I run missions. I mine. I pay for a number of accounts with PLEX. My "handful of friends" is roughly 200 pilots in my extended social circles. Some folks only run Incursions to "top up" their PLEX fund. Most PLEX buyers will buy a PLEX when push comes to shove, most have at least one buy order up at optimistic prices (so they don't miss out on a good deal), and a number have multiple PLEX in trade at any time.

The take-home message here: PLEX are generally sold to buy orders in the first instance, with users buying from sell orders. There are approximately 3000 Incursion-funded accounts in the PLEX market. Incursion-funded accounts thus consume about 1/5-1/3 of the PLEX on the market (where Incursion-funded means that more than 100M per PLEX was raised by running Incursions, since the rest is easy to raise with datacores).
Adunh Slavy
#362 - 2012-03-13 09:52:34 UTC  |  Edited by: Adunh Slavy
El 1974 wrote:
Doubling the net increase in the money supply sounds like a good recipe for hyperinflation.



Eve can not go into a hyperinflation event like what can happen in the real world. I will explain it if anyone cares to read my ramblings, but the tl;dr version is this: Hyperinflation requires an exponential growth of the money supply. In Eve, barring any serious screw ups by CCP, growth of the money supply follows a path of exponential decay never reaching zero.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

Sade Onyx
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#363 - 2012-03-13 09:58:59 UTC
CCP Soundwave wrote:
Incursions are not a big issue in terms of isk globally.


Finally, someone who knows what they are talking about.

Since Darius made Incursions popular with his childish fuss and drama, I've been running them, and its nonsense, you make just as much if not more running lvl 4's.

But Incursions are more fun and while some adjustments are needed, "incursions cause inflation" was quite obviously a "vote Darius for CSM" politically motivated scandal.

Snatcha Pursia
EVE Corporation 98582134
#364 - 2012-03-13 09:59:02 UTC
Remove all bots. Especially trade ones, they are messing with my 0.1 skills
Grukni
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#365 - 2012-03-13 10:14:39 UTC
CCP Soundwave wrote:
We're looking at the economy constantly and looking at our options.

One of the fundamental issues we have is that we're making everyone "better" at making money, so the effect kind of snowballs. Right now we're considering everything form increasing taxes to lowering bounties across the board.


So, what's the biggest ingame isk faucet? I though it was currently incursions. Lvl4 missions seem too low payed. W-space Sleepers maybe?
Mara Rinn
Cosmic Goo Convertor
#366 - 2012-03-13 10:22:31 UTC
Zircon Dasher wrote:
Fun Facts:

In the month of Feb:


~8.6T ISK in Incursion Payouts

~4.8T in Mission Rewards + Mission Bonuses
~32T in NPC bounty


So of the combined Incursion/Missions/Ratting/etc ISK faucet

~81% comes from non-Incursion activity


^ For those who are short on time and can't scan through 17 pages of forum thread before commenting Lol
Grumpy Owly
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#367 - 2012-03-13 10:25:39 UTC  |  Edited by: Grumpy Owly
Mara Rinn wrote:
Grumpy Owly wrote:
Seeing as plex is traded in the thousands per month roughly 14k to 15k per month in the months associated with the last quarter on the graph above, you cannot expect me to believe that is all from incursion runners?


assumes trading in plex wont effect pricing,
some assumed estimated stats based on freinds,
recognises that incursion runners are not attributable as the main purchases of plex,
thinks I need to support any claims I'm making when It is she who is making the original claims (yet easily argued against by looking at isk faucet contributions to suggest an obvious contra argument especially as other non-incursion mission related activities contribute 81% of the associated faucets),
believes or is ignorant that isk transference from faucets to other players through the economy cannot end up in a plex purchase,
Now associates a significant isk issue with plex purchases attributable from datacores and not just incursions.



Thankyou for confirming that in your opinion Plex purchases are not simply attributable to incursions as being the main potential contributor to price changes.

Interesting that you quote 1/5, which associates well with the approximate 20% attributable from the apparent ISK apportionments as faucets.
Adunh Slavy
#368 - 2012-03-13 10:34:34 UTC
Grukni wrote:

So, what's the biggest ingame isk faucet? I though it was currently incursions. Lvl4 missions seem too low payed. W-space Sleepers maybe?



According to Soundwave quote, on page 4 I think, bounties. I would assume that includes bounties in missions and anoms as well, so keep that in mind when you attempt to visualize sets.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

Ioci
Bad Girl Posse
#369 - 2012-03-13 11:08:11 UTC
Makes sense on so many levels why Null sec anoms make more ISK.

- More of them
- They drop loot, useable and reproc
- You don't need to transit up to 30 jumps to find them
- You can fit and rig and meta 4 fit PvE Raven for under 25 mill right now. As much as it's all about Inflation, Arbalest Cruise Launchers go for 120K In Jita. There are anough of them there, you could literally fit a 1000 man Raven fleet meta 4 for 750 mill ISK. X-Large C5, same thing, Large F-S9 extenders, same. It's not an e-peen fit but if you want a replaceable PvE boat that's cheap, it will work for the null content.

R.I.P. Vile Rat

TriadSte
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#370 - 2012-03-13 11:24:34 UTC
What makes me laugh is all this over incursions. The fact remains that only a TINY TINY TIIIIIIIIIINY percentage of players run these.

They are open to everyone to do so why the moaning?

How does effect you on a single player basis? Do you find yourselves logging on and say oh damn that's gone up a few isk...damn those incursions? No you dont and if you do.....just rofl!!

I will talk about tech moons. Is that not the biggest isk sink in the game? The easiest thing on earth to get technetium and even now the cost is crazy. Alliances have tens of billions of isk of the stuff at there for a rainy day, rainy day meaning when they have some titans wiped out and they need replacing.

Should alliances be allowed to farm Technetium like this making Titans so easily attainable? These things are meant to be the biggest most expensive ship in the game. Im sure when CCP introduced them they didn't think that there would be tens and tens of these fielded at once. That an alliance would have to literally bust balls for 1 of these things...

Yet here we are and Titans are.....nothing?

Are CCP going to nerf that process? Nope....

So why hit on the guys running incursions? I think the above is so far far beyond incorrect on a game level it needs stopping.

So what If people are running incursions? Stop bitching and do some yourself.

In truth It's CCPs fault for making missions for empire runners boring as boring gets.
Mara Rinn
Cosmic Goo Convertor
#371 - 2012-03-13 11:43:25 UTC
Grumpy Owly wrote:
Claims that the only people buying PLEX are those gaining ISK through faucets


Interesting claim you make there. Do you have any evidence to support your claim that no miners, industrialists or traders extend their subscription using PLEX?
Dhakgar
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#372 - 2012-03-13 11:44:29 UTC  |  Edited by: Dhakgar
eh, i still they're too good isk for a pilot with almost no SP, but they're not the DEVIL it seemed like my post made them.


gist of the post was a 4mil sp pilot with only 3mil or less in useful skills is making 90mil/hr which is silly.

EDIT: Then again, there's the times you get unlucky and sit there for 2 hours spamming BTL pub, incursiion, cid, any everything with "NEED ONE BASI PILOT PLEASE HELP"

I suppose counting the time it takes me to find fleets i make around 50mil an hour.
Grumpy Owly
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#373 - 2012-03-13 11:47:34 UTC
Mara Rinn wrote:
Grumpy Owly wrote:
Claims that the only people buying PLEX are those gaining ISK through faucets


Interesting claim you make there. Do you have any evidence to support your claim that no miners, industrialists or traders extend their subscription using PLEX?


Where did I claim that?

Where do industrial players get their money from?

Hence why I suggested that transferance of isk in the economy can end up with a plex purchase as mentioned above.
Pinky Feldman
Amarrian Vengeance
Ragequit Cancel Sub
#374 - 2012-03-13 12:01:40 UTC  |  Edited by: Pinky Feldman
What about former miners and industrialists that have more or less completely abandoned their professions in exchange for easy Incursion isk?

Noone ever seems to mention them.
John Maynard Keynes
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#375 - 2012-03-13 12:11:05 UTC
CCP Soundwave wrote:
Tippia wrote:
CCP Soundwave wrote:
Incursions are not a big issue in terms of isk globally.
You're going to have to elaborate on that one a bit.

Kile Kitmoore wrote:
Finally, NOW can we please stop the nerf Incursion threads!
Nope.
Quote:
As for the inflation, you wanted a mining buff here it is! Trit selling at 5 ISK a pop! Nice!
Inflation is not a mining buff since it doesn't mean mining is more worth-while.


Someone already posted the numbers, the majority of isk in EVE comes off bounties and if anything, we should be reviewing the current bounties on battleship NPCs.


Oh please, we already had this "nerf the anos in null space" kind of thing. You know too well how it worked out. The biggest issue with incursions is not the inflation (though 20% of global isk income is not as trivial as you suggest), it is the risk reward problem they create. They should be a low sec only feature! Just like sleepers are a WH only feature with great risks! But instead of removing incursions from high sec you suggest to **** up the risk reward ratio even further by nerfing ano bounties so that null becomes a wasteland again because everyone goes to high sec in order to farm incursions.
gfldex
#376 - 2012-03-13 13:02:08 UTC
Grukni wrote:
So, what's the biggest ingame isk faucet?


bots

If you take all the sand out of the box, only the cat poo will remain.

Myka Hunt
Native Freshfood
Minmatar Republic
#377 - 2012-03-13 13:10:43 UTC
Mara Rinn wrote:
Zircon Dasher wrote:
Fun Facts:

In the month of Feb:


~8.6T ISK in Incursion Payouts

~4.8T in Mission Rewards + Mission Bonuses
~32T in NPC bounty


So of the combined Incursion/Missions/Ratting/etc ISK faucet

~81% comes from non-Incursion activity


^ For those who are short on time and can't scan through 17 pages of forum thread before commenting Lol


~4.8T in Mission Rewards + Mission Bonuses
~32T in NPC bounty

Rabble rabble nerf hisec rabble rabble.

Nice to see some actual figures, not remotely surprised that the current mega-inflation is a result of Nullsec bounties - i.e Sov Anoms.

'Course, you can't nerf those anoms cause all the nullbears will crycrycry...
Cass Lie
State War Academy
Caldari State
#378 - 2012-03-13 13:54:50 UTC
Would be interesting to see how much of the (mineral) inflation has to do with the relatively recent political upheaval in the drone regions, eg. it would be nice to see whether there was a drop in the drone goo being imported to jita and how it correlates to mineral prices and in extension to goods prices. It seems to me non-mineral related goods (implants, rigs, datacores, etc.) may not be experiencing such a harsh inflation, or at least are catching up very slowly. Plex is a different issue entirely.
Grumpy Owly
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#379 - 2012-03-13 14:00:26 UTC  |  Edited by: Grumpy Owly
Cass Lie wrote:
Would be interesting to see how much of the (mineral) inflation has to do with the relatively recent political upheaval in the drone regions, eg. it would be nice to see whether there was a drop in the drone goo being imported to jita and how it correlates to mineral prices and in extension to goods prices. It seems to me non-mineral related goods (implants, rigs, datacores, etc.) may not be experiencing such a harsh inflation, or at least are catching up very slowly. Plex is a different issue entirely.


I believe someone already drew the correlation you are indicating:

http://jestertrek.blogspot.com/2012/02/abcs.html
Sade Onyx
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#380 - 2012-03-13 15:14:08 UTC
Pinky Feldman wrote:
What about former miners and industrialists that have more or less completely abandoned their professions in exchange for easy Incursion isk

Noone ever seems to mention them.


Because its not "easy" at all

Try it.. go to an incursion site yourself and see how "easy" it is to get into a fleet

And if your a Miner / Indst. Then there isnt much chance you'll be able field a 1bn isk ship.