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Oh god, the zdyrine!

Author
papamike
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#121 - 2012-03-27 06:59:49 UTC
Block Ukx wrote:



Zydrine should easily clear 2,500 ISK and should peak around 4,000 - 5,000 ISK


The peak price will depend on how much Zydrine is held by speculators.






Based on what exactly? Frankly I find those figures ridiculously optimistic.
Im expecting short term prices to hit 2500-2700 with peaks @ 3000/unit.

By inferno we should see prices settingly around the 2300-2500.unit sell mark.

I base this off pre- drone region experience of prices, the advent of new tech in mining and the sheer volume of stockpiled Zydrine. I lived out in drone poop land for a couple of years so im well aware of the volume that was produced by gun mining out there. It was large, probably larger then most people realise or acknowledge here.

But 5k/u sounds awefully optimistic.

JitaPriceChecker2
Doomheim
#122 - 2012-03-27 12:23:07 UTC
papamike wrote:
Block Ukx wrote:



Zydrine should easily clear 2,500 ISK and should peak around 4,000 - 5,000 ISK


The peak price will depend on how much Zydrine is held by speculators.






Based on what exactly? Frankly I find those figures ridiculously optimistic.
Im expecting short term prices to hit 2500-2700 with peaks @ 3000/unit.

By inferno we should see prices settingly around the 2300-2500.unit sell mark.

I base this off pre- drone region experience of prices, the advent of new tech in mining and the sheer volume of stockpiled Zydrine. I lived out in drone poop land for a couple of years so im well aware of the volume that was produced by gun mining out there. It was large, probably larger then most people realise or acknowledge here.

But 5k/u sounds awefully optimistic.



Agree
Countesss
Doomheim
#123 - 2012-03-27 14:44:50 UTC
Pre-drone regions zydrine sat comfortably at 3,200-3,400 for a long time. It only really peaked to 5k+ when everyone and their grandmothers was building dreads.

With all the speculators I can see it peak 4k, but then again people have been stock piling zydrine for a very long time. Even way before any of the rumors started flying around. So I can see that will help feed the market for a long time and create a nice downward force on the price. In maybe a year we could see all the stock dry up and the supply/demand really balancing.

But yeah 5k-8k unlikely, 4k range I could see, over 2,500 no doubt.
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#124 - 2012-03-27 16:08:50 UTC
Countesss wrote:
Pre-drone regions zydrine sat comfortably at 3,200-3,400 for a long time. It only really peaked to 5k+ when everyone and their grandmothers was building dreads.

With all the speculators I can see it peak 4k, but then again people have been stock piling zydrine for a very long time. Even way before any of the rumors started flying around. So I can see that will help feed the market for a long time and create a nice downward force on the price. In maybe a year we could see all the stock dry up and the supply/demand really balancing.

But yeah 5k-8k unlikely, 4k range I could see, over 2,500 no doubt.


I like how in here we've got people pooing on the idea of zyd even hitting 4k, and in the other thread we've got someone so adamantly invested in the idea of it hitting 13k that he claims to have invested a third of a trillion into it.


Clearly no one has a clue and we're all just guessing.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Mookie Quantico
Doomheim
#125 - 2012-03-27 16:25:11 UTC
papamike wrote:


By inferno we should see prices settingly around the 2300-2500.unit sell mark.

I base this off pre- drone region experience of prices, the advent of new tech in mining and the sheer volume of stockpiled Zydrine. I lived out in drone poop land for a couple of years so im well aware of the volume that was produced by gun mining out there. It was large, probably larger then most people realise or acknowledge here.

But 5k/u sounds awefully optimistic.




Except that, unlike before Drone Regions came into the game, many of those players are now flying supercaps and toss cap ships away in fights with nary a thought.

And you can bet the major alliances will stockpile like crazy, without releasing "stuff" to the Market, so they can keep that SCap production running long after the Drone Alloys are nerfed.

Not that the last QEN made a big deal about SCap proliferation or anything. Roll


Mook
Countesss
Doomheim
#126 - 2012-03-27 16:27:47 UTC  |  Edited by: Countesss
corestwo wrote:


I like how in here we've got people pooing on the idea of zyd even hitting 4k, and in the other thread we've got someone so adamantly invested in the idea of it hitting 13k that he claims to have invested a third of a trillion into it.


Clearly no one has a clue and we're all just guessing.


Not that hard to make an educated guess.

If zydrine costed 3,200-3,400 before drone regions, then dropped to 740 after drone regions, its very very likely it will end up there after the removal of drone changes.

Just because one ret4rd said 13k, doesn't mean educated common sense estimates are bad. That guy has nothing logical to backup his claims, other than his confidence lol.

EDIT: corestwo we can't be mean to him, he might ask for our resignation from the forums for cyber bullying him.Lol
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#127 - 2012-03-27 16:36:59 UTC
There are other factors though, such as supercap proliferation as Mookie mentioned. Insurance nerfs also mean that minerals are not nearly as well basketed. Mission loot has been messed with since then. Probably other factors that I'm forgetting or overlooking.

"it was 3200-3400 before the drone regions" is certainly a starting point, but all of these factors add up to make it only a very rough one, IMO.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Countesss
Doomheim
#128 - 2012-03-27 17:16:48 UTC  |  Edited by: Countesss
corestwo wrote:
There are other factors though, such as supercap proliferation as Mookie mentioned. Insurance nerfs also mean that minerals are not nearly as well basketed. Mission loot has been messed with since then. Probably other factors that I'm forgetting or overlooking.

"it was 3200-3400 before the drone regions" is certainly a starting point, but all of these factors add up to make it only a very rough one, IMO.


Agreed, we can also have some fun with it and list the factors and which way they're expected to affect the price.
Something like this:

Removal of drone compounds: Up
Speculators: Up
Insurance: Down
Proliferation of supercaps: Up (Larger demand for zydrine/mins)
Mission loot changes: +/- (haven't done research of the overall affect here on zyd)

All I could think of atm..

Edit: would be interesting to see how much zydrine/high ends get mined out of WH's....
Block Ukx
420 Enterprises.
#129 - 2012-03-27 18:01:31 UTC  |  Edited by: Block Ukx
papamike wrote:

Based on what exactly? Frankly I find those figures ridiculously optimistic.



Scarcity based calculation using current ore composition and assuming people will mine intelligently, and my experience managing a mineral reserve for almost five years.





Need to protect against inflation? Invest in MRD
SamtheDog
Singularity.
#130 - 2012-03-27 22:31:50 UTC
Countesss wrote:
corestwo wrote:


I like how in here we've got people pooing on the idea of zyd even hitting 4k, and in the other thread we've got someone so adamantly invested in the idea of it hitting 13k that he claims to have invested a third of a trillion into it.


Clearly no one has a clue and we're all just guessing.


Not that hard to make an educated guess.

If zydrine costed 3,200-3,400 before drone regions, then dropped to 740 after drone regions, its very very likely it will end up there after the removal of drone changes.

Just because one ret4rd said 13k, doesn't mean educated common sense estimates are bad. That guy has nothing logical to backup his claims, other than his confidence lol.

EDIT: corestwo we can't be mean to him, he might ask for our resignation from the forums for cyber bullying him.Lol



Curiously, zydrine hit a high of 10k in Jita last night.

Sam
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#131 - 2012-03-27 22:55:31 UTC
I see a high of 10k listed in the market tables, but all that means is that someone for some reason tried to buy some for 10k a unit, and in that situation the market goes "okay" and sells it to the buyer for that price. That doesn't mean that the market hit 10k. Furthermore, the highest order actually on the market (aside from the single billion isk unit) tops out in the 3k range and there are numerous orders below it that are several days or weeks old.


For someone who claims to have invested a third of a trillion into zyd, you sure are an idiot about how the market works.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Countesss
Doomheim
#132 - 2012-03-27 23:25:25 UTC
corestwo wrote:


For someone who claims to have invested a third of a trillion into zyd, you sure are an idiot about how the market works.


You beat me to the smack down Cry
SamtheDog
Singularity.
#133 - 2012-03-28 00:45:33 UTC
corestwo wrote:
I see a high of 10k listed in the market tables, but all that means is that someone for some reason tried to buy some for 10k a unit, and in that situation the market goes "okay" and sells it to the buyer for that price. That doesn't mean that the market hit 10k. Furthermore, the highest order actually on the market (aside from the single billion isk unit) tops out in the 3k range and there are numerous orders below it that are several days or weeks old.


For someone who claims to have invested a third of a trillion into zyd, you sure are an idiot about how the market works.



You sound angry.

You also seemto keep reiterating the word 'claim'.

I guess that's as good a coping mechanism as any.

Sammy
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#134 - 2012-03-28 01:03:04 UTC
SamtheDog wrote:
corestwo wrote:
I see a high of 10k listed in the market tables, but all that means is that someone for some reason tried to buy some for 10k a unit, and in that situation the market goes "okay" and sells it to the buyer for that price. That doesn't mean that the market hit 10k. Furthermore, the highest order actually on the market (aside from the single billion isk unit) tops out in the 3k range and there are numerous orders below it that are several days or weeks old.


For someone who claims to have invested a third of a trillion into zyd, you sure are an idiot about how the market works.



You sound angry.

You also seemto keep reiterating the word 'claim'.

I guess that's as good a coping mechanism as any.

Sammy


Idiocy in others sometimes has that effect on me.


And yes, claim. Just as I claim to have a mere 35 million units of zyd, you claim to have 340 billion worth. Without proof, that's all it is. Lol

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

SamtheDog
Singularity.
#135 - 2012-03-28 05:16:53 UTC  |  Edited by: SamtheDog
corestwo wrote:
SamtheDog wrote:
corestwo wrote:
I see a high of 10k listed in the market tables, but all that means is that someone for some reason tried to buy some for 10k a unit, and in that situation the market goes "okay" and sells it to the buyer for that price. That doesn't mean that the market hit 10k. Furthermore, the highest order actually on the market (aside from the single billion isk unit) tops out in the 3k range and there are numerous orders below it that are several days or weeks old.


For someone who claims to have invested a third of a trillion into zyd, you sure are an idiot about how the market works.



You sound angry.

You also seemto keep reiterating the word 'claim'.

I guess that's as good a coping mechanism as any.

Sammy


Idiocy in others sometimes has that effect on me.


And yes, claim. Just as I claim to have a mere 35 million units of zyd, you claim to have 340 billion worth. Without proof, that's all it is. Lol


Ah...I understand now.

You're angry because you can't understand how I amassed so much over time. As a result you think I"m lying.

I don't mind. If zydrine goes to nearly 4k, I make around 1.2 trillion profit. If it goes to say 5k, I make 1.5tn.

I'm predicting 13k from past experience of price changes fluxuating wildly over 10 fold (robotics, nocx as examples) when the game mechanics are changed.

I suspect you secretly hope I"m right. Regardless if I'm right or wrong, every time zyd goes up 1 isk, I make a significant amount of money. But even at your naysayers (they remind me of apple-haters), 4k would net me a healthy profit, but I'm looking for obscene profits...for me and of course for yourself as well. People are always much more pleasant and happy when they get superrich. I hope you make a bankload of money to the point you don't care about what you will do in eve.

For myself, I'm going to plex my 5 accounts for 5 years (300 plex in all) and just see what CCP holds in store. Last time I plexed was for 2 years. It's nice not worrying about bills or accounts about to go under.



Sam
xNEWxTROLLxHEREx
Doomheim
#136 - 2012-03-28 05:23:06 UTC
How long is it going to take to liquidate that much Zyd? Haven't made anything until it is sold.
SamtheDog
Singularity.
#137 - 2012-03-28 07:05:54 UTC
xNEWxTROLLxHEREx wrote:
How long is it going to take to liquidate that much Zyd? Haven't made anything until it is sold.



My past experience is to put an amount for a fixed price (say 10M units) and then fill buy orders in full upto a certain price that you're willing to sell. After that, you just let your sell order that's at a fixed price sit until it's sold or your sell later.

I don't usually dump 100M of minerals on order because there's always someone who is willing to go 0.01 isk cheaper and that's just annoying. I know my lowest accetable price and i"ll just do immeidate sales until it's fulfilled.

But that amount of zydrine will probably take a few weeks to sell. Mostly because I"m working and I don't have all day to spend on eve and I'm just not in a rush to cash in. I have plenty of liquidity and income in eve that I don't really need to play, but the challenge of making a trillion isk is what I find more challenging to me now rather than flying a spaceship in game with some skill at lvl 5 to do something 2 seconds faster or something else like that.

Sam
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#138 - 2012-03-28 13:00:30 UTC  |  Edited by: corestwo
SamtheDog wrote:
corestwo wrote:
SamtheDog wrote:
corestwo wrote:
I see a high of 10k listed in the market tables, but all that means is that someone for some reason tried to buy some for 10k a unit, and in that situation the market goes "okay" and sells it to the buyer for that price. That doesn't mean that the market hit 10k. Furthermore, the highest order actually on the market (aside from the single billion isk unit) tops out in the 3k range and there are numerous orders below it that are several days or weeks old.


For someone who claims to have invested a third of a trillion into zyd, you sure are an idiot about how the market works.



You sound angry.

You also seemto keep reiterating the word 'claim'.

I guess that's as good a coping mechanism as any.

Sammy


Idiocy in others sometimes has that effect on me.


And yes, claim. Just as I claim to have a mere 35 million units of zyd, you claim to have 340 billion worth. Without proof, that's all it is. Lol


Ah...I understand now.

You're angry because you can't understand how I amassed so much over time. As a result you think I"m lying.

I don't mind. If zydrine goes to nearly 4k, I make around 1.2 trillion profit. If it goes to say 5k, I make 1.5tn.

I'm predicting 13k from past experience of price changes fluxuating wildly over 10 fold (robotics, nocx as examples) when the game mechanics are changed.

I suspect you secretly hope I"m right. Regardless if I'm right or wrong, every time zyd goes up 1 isk, I make a significant amount of money. But even at your naysayers (they remind me of apple-haters), 4k would net me a healthy profit, but I'm looking for obscene profits...for me and of course for yourself as well. People are always much more pleasant and happy when they get superrich. I hope you make a bankload of money to the point you don't care about what you will do in eve.

For myself, I'm going to plex my 5 accounts for 5 years (300 plex in all) and just see what CCP holds in store. Last time I plexed was for 2 years. It's nice not worrying about bills or accounts about to go under.



Sam


Actually, no, you still don't understand. Lol

I already said that I hope you're right, and that I have my own admittedly tiny (compared to what you claim, anyway) stack. And I perfectly well understand how you've amassed so much over time - you trade other things and you roll a portion of that profit into the zyd over the course of several months or a few years. You've had time, after all - it's been under 1000/unit for over a year, under 1500/unit for far longer. And I've already made what many would consider to be a bankload of money to the point where I don't care about what I do in eve.

I still think 13k is nuts, especially if you think "13k sustained long enough to actually sell at" rather than "yeah maybe the market touches 13k during a frenzy before getting warred down under the weight of a thousand .01s".

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Uppsy Daisy
Perkone
Caldari State
#139 - 2012-03-28 13:38:59 UTC  |  Edited by: Uppsy Daisy
13000K?! What a load of complete rubbish.

I think you are forgetting the enormous buffering effect that refining has on mineral prices.

If zydrine is sells for 13000K, people will refine anything containing Zydrine and just sell it, replenishing stocks.

Here are some sample breakeven prices for refining with zydrine at todays prices and at 13000 with the other minerals roughly at todays prices:

Abaddon

Current refine breakeven: 192279511.52
Refine breakeven with Zydrine @ 13000: 285636511.52

Difference: up 93.3 million

Maelstrom

Current refine breakeven: 158332285.26
Refine breakeven with Zydrine @ 13000: 271802785.26

Difference: up 113.5 million

Raven up 81 million
Megathron up 78.5 million
Apocalypse up 82.4 million

all battleships would have to go up by at least 40 million.

Moving on to cruisers:

Maller up from 9 to 15.5 million
Thorax up from 8 to 13.8 million
Rupture up from 7 to 12.2 million

In the short term, yes, prices will go up.

Then they will start to get buffered by refining.

Then CCP will introduce Tech 2 mining crystals that only work in 0.0 space, and people will go back to mining in 0.0. Stock will flow, prices will stabilize.

Block is the one to trust on the prices.
Danari
Syncore
#140 - 2012-03-29 06:20:19 UTC
Uppsy Daisy wrote:
13000K?! What a load of complete rubbish.

Abaddon

Current refine breakeven: 192279511.52
Refine breakeven with Zydrine @ 13000: 285636511.52



With the insurance nerf, and producers always selling above cost, how do you expect any Abaddons to get refined?