These forums have been archived and are now read-only.

The new forums are live and can be found at https://forums.eveonline.com/

Market Discussions

 
  • Topic is locked indefinitely.
 

Oh god, the zdyrine!

Author
Tanya Powers
Doomheim
#61 - 2012-03-14 00:09:09 UTC
Alara IonStorm wrote:
Forgive my lack of knowledge about the Mineral Market and its effects on costs.

What do people speculate this means for the game? How will this effect the market?


Drone crap being the biggest minerals provider is bad, so CCP after many players rage finally will take those away, add some bots kicking.
Now you have a clear lack of minerals for whatever, even a simple shuttle, and you don't have enough miners because:
- they sold their mining char on toons bazaar
- bot guy got it and just got kicked
- new players do'nt have enough skills to efficiently mine in low/null
- older players got tired of being ganked and are waiting for revenge (like me)

So those crawling on gazillions of isk have better time on buying all low ores/minerals they can right now even at 5 isk/unit before they hit prices you could never imagine it's even possible

This will have a major impact on each and every item in game, from shuttles to T1 ammo and let's not even talk about the uber Titan alt freshly acquired with incursion isk.

I told you guys this already about one month ago or +, we're getting closer and it's not ready to stop as long as bots get kicked and as long as players re start having fun mining, decent isk for this boring activity, and for some time now to prepare payback.
I guess the impact of lack of minerals in game has a much bigger impact on big alliances than it has on miners AFK in high sec while doing other stuff with main char, right?
Scrapyard Bob
EVE University
Ivy League
#62 - 2012-03-14 04:24:35 UTC
Savage Creampuff wrote:
before the drone regions, zyd was trading for around 3500 if i remember right. zyd was the bread n butter of 0.0 mining


I don't remember it that high. I know that 1700-1800 was the Dec 2009 price range.

Anyone have a market site with deeper history then EVEMarketeer?
testobjekt
Goonswarm Federation Human Resources
Goonswarm Federation
#63 - 2012-03-14 08:03:22 UTC
with recent changes to titan mechanics the demand side will see a huge(!) nerf. People who compare the prices with the prices from wayback fail to take into account the new ships like the rorqual and orca, which make mining so much easier.

Furthermore the expenses for Ships are far more t2 oriented these days (which dont need so much minerals) or faction/officer (for highsec mission runners)

add to that the possibility of 0.0 mining crystalls with twice the yield and you see zydrine tanking to a new low.
Mr Fondo
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#64 - 2012-03-14 14:12:34 UTC
Hate to say i told you all so.. but

I TOLD YOU

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=462428#post462428
Eternal Corrosion
The Truskers
#65 - 2012-03-14 14:22:01 UTC
The problem is that if CCP put bounties on Drones and doesnt change the mining volume of Hulks... we will see a skyrocket price inflation on almost everything cause the demand will be much bigger than the offer..., of course this will affect zydrine...

The good thing is if they raise the mining volume of ORE ships we will see a nice manipulation in Hulkaggeddons...Twisted

I will always love LowSec

Towaoc
Applied Technologies Inc
Agents of Fortune
#66 - 2012-03-14 23:12:27 UTC  |  Edited by: Towaoc
Scrapyard Bob wrote:
Savage Creampuff wrote:
before the drone regions, zyd was trading for around 3500 if i remember right. zyd was the bread n butter of 0.0 mining


I don't remember it that high. I know that 1700-1800 was the Dec 2009 price range.

Anyone have a market site with deeper history then EVEMarketeer?

I dug into our internal records just for the fun of it. Zydrine traded in the 3,700 to 3,900 range throughout most of 2006, peaking around 4,200 in April of that year. A log entry in our archives dated April 16, 2006 shows two blocks of Zydrine being sold at a price of 4,249 per unit. This may approximate the time and price at which Zydrine peaked. Following the "Revelations" patch, Zyd tumbled to 3,050 per unit by December 31, 2006 and continued plunging to its all-time low of near 700 per unit last year.
Lt Angus
Goat Herders
#67 - 2012-03-14 23:13:33 UTC
Scrapyard Bob wrote:
Savage Creampuff wrote:
before the drone regions, zyd was trading for around 3500 if i remember right. zyd was the bread n butter of 0.0 mining


I don't remember it that high. I know that 1700-1800 was the Dec 2009 price range.

Anyone have a market site with deeper history then EVEMarketeer?


yea was that high but going back some years now, nocx was 800, isogen i think was 90-120
Skydell
Bad Girl Posse
Somethin Awfull Forums
#68 - 2012-03-14 23:19:48 UTC
I've been following Megacyte ever since this drone poo thing came about and it creeps 50 ISK or so a week. I don't think it ever fell below 2200 so it was much harder to contaminate the market unless you were prepared to inject alot of ISK. Assuming that factor doesn't change, I use that mineral as my thermostat for drone poo rumors. Anything happening to Zydrine is just market play.
Scrapyard Bob
EVE University
Ivy League
#69 - 2012-03-15 01:29:53 UTC
Towaoc wrote:

I dug into our internal records just for the fun of it. Zydrine traded in the 3,700 to 3,900 range throughout most of 2006, peaking around 4,200 in April of that year. A log entry in our archives dated April 16, 2006 shows two blocks of Zydrine being sold at a price of 4,249 per unit. This may approximate the time and price at which Zydrine peaked. Following the "Revelations" patch, Zyd tumbled to 3,050 per unit by December 31, 2006 and continued plunging to its all-time low of near 700 per unit last year.


Thanks, I didn't start playing until Jan '07, and didn't really start tracking ore/mineral prices until '08 or so.

Feb 2010:
(ISK/m3) - Veld 80 Scor 100 Pyro 68 Plag 99 Omb 57 Kern 85 Jasp 39 Herm 61 Hedb 78
(ISK/u) - Trit 2.65 Pye 6.75 Mex 26.50 Iso 50.25 Nocx 89 Zyd 1550 Mega 2600 Morph 7400

Jun 2011:
Veld 98 Scor 91 Pyro 114 Omb 72 Kern 97 Jasp 139 Hemo 163 Hedb 162
Trit 3.25 Pye 4.40 Mex 26.10 Iso 65.00 Nocx 475 Zyd 875 Mega 2500 Morph 3600

Mar 2012:
Veld 137 Scor 121 Pyro 170 Plag 154 Omb 82 Kern 151 Jasp 179 Hemo 198 Hedb 195
Trit 4.58 Pye 5.31 Mex 54.96 Iso 73.74 Nocx 567 Zyd 1173 Mega 2733 Morph 4989

(Hard to believe that Nocx used to be under 90 ISK/u. I had forgotten that.)
Uppsy Daisy
Perkone
Caldari State
#70 - 2012-03-15 08:56:50 UTC
Surely if CCP's aim is to get people back mining in 0.0 again, the zydrine prices will have to rise relative to everything else in the game to make it worth it.

So whatever balancing that is necessary to make this occur will happen...
Nomad I
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#71 - 2012-03-15 11:11:57 UTC
With the Rorqual, the low price of the Hulk compared to 2006, the minerals anomalies and the masses of miners in 0.0, I guess the zyrine price will rise over 1000, but not over 2000 in mid term. It's actually safer to mine in 0.0 than in high sec now. I predict a huge press on the mineral market in the future too.
testobjekt
Goonswarm Federation Human Resources
Goonswarm Federation
#72 - 2012-03-15 11:29:35 UTC
There is no way predict the price in a reliable fashion, outside of "it will skyrocket" because thats the designe goal. They remove dronepoo to make mining more profitable.

BTW: Crucible 1.6 in the week after fanfest (2 weeks from now) wonder if it will have the change.
Scrapyard Bob
EVE University
Ivy League
#73 - 2012-03-15 13:50:29 UTC
Nomad I wrote:
With the Rorqual, the low price of the Hulk compared to 2006, the minerals anomalies and the masses of miners in 0.0, I guess the zyrine price will rise over 1000, but not over 2000 in mid term. It's actually safer to mine in 0.0 than in high sec now. I predict a huge press on the mineral market in the future too.


Well, you can make a safe assumption: The ISK/hr from mining ABCs in null-sec will need to approach the ISK/hr from ratting or running anoms. Assume that you'll have good Orca/Rorqual support and that each Hulk will pull 150k m3 of ore per hour.

As a rough guess, that means a target income of around 90M ISK/hr per hulk pilot. Above that and it would be too lucrative, below that and people will do other things instead. That means the average ore value needs to be 600 ISK/m3 or so, which might mean Ark at 700, Croc at 500 and Bist at 600.

Today's prices for ABCs are: 237 / 267 / 344, with mineral prices of Trit 4.64 Pye 5.32 Mex 55.14 Iso 73.94 Nocx 573 Zyd 1145 Mega 2731 Morph 4994.

Both Zyd and Mega would have to go up in price by about 75-80% in order to push the ABCs into the 500-700 ISK/m3 range. I can see that happening for Zydrine, but I don't see Megacyte going up that much.

However, if CCP was smart - they'd simply add more minerals to the ABCs (such as boosting the amount of Nocx/Zyd/Mega in those ores and adding a touch of Mexallon). And lower the m3/unit of Spod by a lot (16 m3 -> 8 m3). Which would accomplish the goal of making the ABCs more valuable in relation to the hi-sec ores as well as offsetting some of the supply issues with the removal of drone poo.
Nomad I
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#74 - 2012-03-15 14:35:29 UTC
Scrapyard Bob wrote:
Nomad I wrote:
With the Rorqual, the low price of the Hulk compared to 2006, the minerals anomalies and the masses of miners in 0.0, I guess the zyrine price will rise over 1000, but not over 2000 in mid term. It's actually safer to mine in 0.0 than in high sec now. I predict a huge press on the mineral market in the future too.


Well, you can make a safe assumption: The ISK/hr from mining ABCs in null-sec will need to approach the ISK/hr from ratting or running anoms. Assume that you'll have good Orca/Rorqual support and that each Hulk will pull 150k m3 of ore per hour.

As a rough guess, that means a target income of around 90M ISK/hr per hulk pilot




Here are you wrong. Many poeple don't make more than 25million per tick in anomalies and they have to pay taxes. So 40m-60m per hour is a good profit from running anomalies. Multiaccount mining is always an option, even now.



Tasko Pal
Spallated Garniferous Schist
#75 - 2012-03-15 15:34:23 UTC  |  Edited by: Tasko Pal
Scrapyard Bob wrote:


As a rough guess, that means a target income of around 90M ISK/hr per hulk pilot.


Each hulk pilot can pilot several hulk alts and there's lower capital requirements than for ratting/anomaly running at that level. I imagine that the actual price won't be much different than it currently is for Ark (350 isk/m3 or about 40-45 mil/hr for really good miners who can mine 1800-2000 m3/min). We'd just see Bistot and Crokite come closer to matching it. That means a substantial rise in current zydrine prices along with the possibility of a drop in megacyte

I decided to run a calculation on the assumption that bistot and crokite get as close to ark in isk/m3 as possible. I assume also that nocxium prices don't change much, though one would expect a slight drop (so I decided to price nocxium at the good old round number of 500 isk). As a result, I get the following

At 350 isk/m3 (current levels), I get 1860 zyd and 2430 mega
At 500 isk/m3 (roughly 54-60 mil/hr), I get 2760 zyd and 3420 mega
At 650 isk/m3 (roughly 70-78 mil/hr), I get 3670 zyd and 4410 mega

Arkanor and crokite end up being equal (at the given isk/m3) while bistot is a few percent less (for example 335 isk/m3 at the first level). If I try to get all three to line up by allowing nocxium to vary as well, then I get a negative value for nocxium. It isn't possible for all three ores to be the same value, I think, unless one does some crazy things with the price of trit and pye

My feeling is that even this is in some error due to the overproduction of zydrine in these ores. Crokite and bistot produce a lot of zydrine and I gather they're a little more prevalent than arkanor. Arkanor also produces significant zydrine (half as much as megacyte). So I don't see these other ores actually achieving parity with arkanor except for short market fluctuations where zydrine spikes in price. So my best guess is that zydrine will be somewhat lower, say zydrine and megacyte around 1600 and 2550 respectively.
Mookie Quantico
Doomheim
#76 - 2012-03-15 15:55:43 UTC
While I agree with many of the points put forward by the esteemed peanut gallery, specifically:

a) Drone alloys getting nerfed, and
b) the recent culling of botters,

helping a steady rise in high end minerals prices, there is one factor that has been missed.

c) the soul-sucking, mindless boredom that is the epitome of mining.

"Can't Be Arsed" will rule the day, and prices will rise -- because really, we've all got better things to do than mine.


Mook
fugazii
Slippery Penguin
#77 - 2012-03-15 18:09:48 UTC
Tasko Pal wrote:
Crokite and bistot produce a lot of zydrine and I gather they're a little more prevalent than arkanor.


To the drum of all of Gurista space has only 1 sytstem with naturally occuring Arkonor. That system is 9p40.
Wukulo
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#78 - 2012-03-15 23:33:51 UTC
Skydell wrote:
This is a market manipulation, not a supply and demand issue.

A Nyx uses 825K Zydrine
A Nyx uses 1.1 Billion Trit.

Zydrine is over rated.


So... because you need more trit Zydrine is worthless? I'm digging your logic. I'll take your Zydrine off your hands if you don't want it.

Posted on main because I'm not a coward like the rest of you.

Pheusia
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#79 - 2012-03-16 11:43:07 UTC
fugazii wrote:
Tasko Pal wrote:
Crokite and bistot produce a lot of zydrine and I gather they're a little more prevalent than arkanor.


To the drum of all of Gurista space has only 1 sytstem with naturally occuring Arkonor. That system is 9p40.


Can upgraded systems produce mining anoms with Arkanor?
Lucinda Hamu
Doomheim
#80 - 2012-03-16 12:29:34 UTC  |  Edited by: Lucinda Hamu
Wukulo wrote:
[quote=Skydell
So... because you need more trit Zydrine is worthless?


I don't think he is saying that.

I think he is saying that 1. is being manipulated and 2. the high requirement for trit should be pushing prices up for Trit. Which makes logical sense imo.