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Why CCP isn't going to care about current CSM tactics

First post
Author
Prince Kobol
#121 - 2011-09-09 12:49:13 UTC  |  Edited by: Prince Kobol
Barricade Dark wrote:
Quote:
You can take an anology a bit too far. There is a huge gap between causing ecological disaster on a scale unheard of in modern history and cutting back on development of an internet spaceship game.

The negative publicity people will hear about CCP are fairly obscure and technical issues which non-EVE players will not understand or not care about. But those screenshots look pretty sexy, let's give it a try. Trial is free, right ?

I'll just concede the point that some publicity you never want.


I think you are underestimating the gaming community here. Gamers are gamers, being a "non-eve" gamer doesn't make you an imbecale that will spend 20 bucks on a game because they saw a screenshot.

Most gamers will take a moment before pulling out the credit card and read up on a game, their are a lot of lemons out their and it won't take them long to discover some of the media coverage.

I mean do you do that? See a screenshot and rush out to slide your credit card? Of course not. You do the trial, read some reviews, read some guides and eventually go over some forum passage. It won't take the average gamer long to discover the shape of a game. More importantly the in game outrage is even worse and it won't take them long to discover a fairly angry public in game either.

All I'm saying is if you do a search on Eve Online and find nothing but negative articles... you are going to seriously consider pulling out that credit card.

But besides that the media coverage is less for the non-eve players and more for the eve players. A lot of current eve players are being exposed to all the negativity and that is having a far greater impact on the number of people logging in than outsiders lookig in.


No, most people don't pay any attention to the mass of crap written on the internet as it is very rarely subjective.

Yeah we have all seen all the trailers on Youtube but they are aware its all show, just like the videos for SW TOR.

Instead most people they use a free trial period to decide whether they like a game or not.

I have used the buddy system many many times and so far nobody has signed up.

It had nothing to with what CCP is or is not doing, its because they found Eve to be too time consuming and wasn't casual friendly.

Also many found the attitude from segments of the community towards new players very negitive.
Mechael
Tribal Liberation Distribution and Retail
#122 - 2011-09-09 12:51:24 UTC
ThisIsntMyMain wrote:
More worryingly, the inability to move Incarna beyond a single room let alone four individual single player rooms despite missing multiple deadlines shows that as a development platform it is still deeply flawed. Hence, there is still likely a large amount of money required to complete the project and unfortunately a real possibility of failure.


Original poster (sorry for not memorizing your name,) this right here explains at least a big portion of what White Tree was being vague about. While CCP might not be facing imminent meltdown, there is certainly a huge pot on the table. Assuming that the CSM knows this, it would go a long way towards explaining the brazen actions of the CSM, most prominently by far those of The Mittani. I have to say that the CSM's chosen course of action, while meritorious, does not go far enough. Seems like they could use a little support, and if only someone could do something about that pesky NDA ... not saying that I'm going to do something myself to get around the NDA, I can't do much, I'm just a nobody around here. It would be nice if things could go from muddy to crystal clear, though.

Whether or not you win the game matters not.  It's if you bought it.

Saerathus
Vocatio Ad Virtutem
#123 - 2011-09-09 12:52:31 UTC  |  Edited by: Saerathus
Caius Sivaris wrote:

You can't read, now what about you shut up?

Even if I have made errors in interpreting the fine-grained details of a company's financials, it doesn't invalidate every point I have made. You pull the same tired routine of saying "go learn X, you don't know anything", when you could just point out my mistake - or are people required to be well-versed in programming, politics, sociology, project management, account auditing, communications, and playing Eve Online in order to point out some flaws in the way people are acting? If so, I think there's quite a lot more people that deserve to come under your crusade of "you don't know anything, shut up" than I.

Caius Sivaris wrote:

CCP must repay 11.5 million dollars by October 28, money they can't possibly have.

That means a new round of VC investment (pretty unlikely) or a new loan, which may be hard to secure at a decent rate for an Icelandic company that never solved its burn rate issue in ten years and have obvious difficulties to execute.


And yet you criticize me and then present magical thinking in the same post. Money they can't possibly have? How can you even make that determination? Look at their net profit from 2010, and on top of that you're missing expenditures data from whenever their FY ends to-date. I guess all that money is going to somehow disappear from this year's financials, right?
Barricade Dark
#124 - 2011-09-09 13:01:12 UTC
Quote:
No, most people don't pay any attention to the mass of crap written on the internet as it is very rarely subjective.

instead they just use a free trial period to decide whether they like a game or not.

I have used the buddy system many many times and so far nobody has signed up.

It had nothing to with what CCP is or is not doing, its because they found Eve to be too time consuming and wasn't casual friendly.

Also many found the attitude from segments of the community towards new players very negitive.


We are just going to have to agree to disagree. I have been gaming for over 25 years and I've never met anyone that buys a game without reading up on it first. I agree that trials work in a way that allows you to ignore reading up (since their is no cost) to just try a game but even on a trial I think the majority of players are going to pop on the internet and read up on a game. At least every person I have ever met has.

I agree that internet jiberish isn't a defining factor, but just to give you an example Star Wars Old Republic is being reported as "sucking" by beta testers. For me that game went from must have to wait for the trial. So jiberish or not, to me if people playing the game report it as sucking my credit card becomes very shy and doesn't want to come.

Bad press hurts.. a game gets a bad review ... less people will buy it. Its just how it works. Im sure there are people who walk into a game store, grab a game of the shelf and buy it based on the cover art, but does people are not likely to do that for very long as the sting of buying a crappy game a few times is usually sufficient to get most people to bring up a browser and read up on a game before spending money on it. Its especially true for MMO's. I mean I wouldn't perosnally even bother with a trial until I have thoroughly reviewed what the game is about and the general reaction to the game. I suppose Im frugal, but I don't buy anything EVER based on screenshots, thats just crazy to me.
Prince Kobol
#125 - 2011-09-09 13:05:01 UTC
Fair enough :)
Caius Sivaris
Dark Nexxus
S0ns Of Anarchy
#126 - 2011-09-09 13:14:12 UTC
Barricade Dark wrote:
Quote:
CCP must repay 11.5 million dollars by October 28, money they can't possibly have.

That means a new round of VC investment (pretty unlikely) or a new loan, which may be hard to secure at a decent rate for an Icelandic company that never solved its burn rate issue in ten years and have obvious difficulties to execute.


Well thats not entirely true, according to the report they have 11 million of the 11.5 million they need to pay back and that report is fairly out of date now so its feasable that they have managed to scrounge up that extra 500k.


They had 11M in the bank on January one. They also had a 10M a year burn rate. Should everything stay the same they would have maybe 3M left in the bank come the time to repay the loan on October 28.

Then we heard of no layoff etc so their expenses should stay the same or increase, while it seems subscription numbers took a plunge (if logged in players are correlated, which they always have been) so their burn rate may have increased as their revenue fell. Loss of subscription revenue could be offset by the :awesome: success of the monocle store OTOH.

No way to know still we get their 2011 annual report during the 2012 summer I guess Lol, since CCP chose not to communicate on the issue (which is fine for a company that's isn't publicly traded).

Caius Sivaris
Dark Nexxus
S0ns Of Anarchy
#127 - 2011-09-09 13:32:34 UTC
Saerathus wrote:

Caius Sivaris wrote:

CCP must repay 11.5 million dollars by October 28, money they can't possibly have.

That means a new round of VC investment (pretty unlikely) or a new loan, which may be hard to secure at a decent rate for an Icelandic company that never solved its burn rate issue in ten years and have obvious difficulties to execute.


And yet you criticize me and then present magical thinking in the same post. Money they can't possibly have? How can you even make that determination? Look at their net profit from 2010, and on top of that you're missing expenditures data from whenever their FY ends to-date. I guess all that money is going to somehow disappear from this year's financials, right?


What we know : cash on hand beginning of the year 2011: 11M

What we know : burn rate during 2010 (around 10M, IIRC discussion on failheap was a long time ago)

Now some magical thinking is involved : I will assume that


  • CCP revenue in 2011 will be about the same than in 2010, given that what brings most of the money, EVE subscriptions, changed little
  • CCP expenses (mostly salaries and expenses like offices tied to having those people working for you) will be about the same too, they are not on a hiring binge, didn't have layoff and Linkedin doesn't show more people leaving than usual


That "magical thinking" gives me a burn rate staying about the same in 2011 than in 2010 and thus CCP not being able to repay the 11M loan on its own, needing either a new round of financing or a new loan.

Maybe I'm wrong, maybe they sold so many monocles that their revenue is spiking, but I doubt it.
Barricade Dark
#128 - 2011-09-09 13:34:44 UTC
Well Iceland has the same laws as we do here in Sweden when it comes to financial records, so come January we will get a look at those financials and we will know how it wall went down. Until than its mostly speculation. Hopefully whatever it is won't result in any lay off or downsizing or anything. Things are bad enough in the economy, i would hate to see my favorite MMO fail.
Caius Sivaris
Dark Nexxus
S0ns Of Anarchy
#129 - 2011-09-09 13:37:38 UTC
Barricade Dark wrote:
Well Iceland has the same laws as we do here in Sweden when it comes to financial records, so come January we will get a look at those financials and we will know how it wall went down. Until than its mostly speculation. Hopefully whatever it is won't result in any lay off or downsizing or anything. Things are bad enough in the economy, i would hate to see my favorite MMO fail.


It takes time have the annual report done and properly audited. The 2010 report was filled on May 31, 2011.

http://www.rsk.is/fyrirtaekjaskra/arsreikn/leit?name=&kt=450697-3469
Saerathus
Vocatio Ad Virtutem
#130 - 2011-09-09 13:48:10 UTC
Caius Sivaris wrote:

That "magical thinking" gives me a burn rate staying about the same in 2011 than in 2010 and thus CCP not being able to repay the 11M loan on its own, needing either a new round of financing or a new loan.

Maybe I'm wrong, maybe they sold so many monocles that their revenue is spiking, but I doubt it.


At some point after sleeping (and not now because I'm getting a bit punchy) I will probably go back to the OP and adjust my language on the financials point because that seems to be where I'm taking the most flack.

My experience with "burn rate" terminology is confined largely to project management (EVM), which is significantly different (but fundamentally the same thing). I appreciate your pointing out to me where exactly burn rate is being derived from in IFRS parlance.
Cearain
Plus 10 NV
#131 - 2011-09-09 13:53:48 UTC
Saerathus wrote:

In regards to CCP

"CCP needs us to finance their other games/CCP is killing their golden goose" - No, they don't. Don't deceive yourselves, the people that believe this. DUST and WoD have already had the bulk of their development costs paid for, they don't NEED Eve Online to remain running at its current level to keep from going out of business, and I would bet that they don't NEED Eve Online revenues at all to keep from going out of business. Does anyone here that knows how corporations work really think that CCP would embark on -two- CapEx projects simultaneously without being able to afford it? Do these people think that they were just spending every dollar that came in over the last 8 years? Even if Eve-O were to go offline tomorrow, even if they didn't have as much money as they thought they would need, they are a studio that has shown positive growth for 8 years, they will have NO problem getting funding to finish it from banks or investors. ....



This is as far as i got and stopped reading. You make these claims without any sort of proof. You think they already paid for all of the development of these games with cash? No loans that they need a steady income from eve to pay? Even if they have no loans I don't think they paid it all up front in cash. People working on WOD or Dust have likely *salaries* that need to be paid every 2 weeks. Its not like they paid them up front for the game.

I don't think you know what you are talking about. Banks and investors have their limits but they still need to be repaid. If those loans and salaries come due every month and the money is not coming in from the game then they have to start laying people off. Which means the games are even less developed which means even more subs leave.

I'm not saying I fully understand CCP's financial health. But even huge companies can overextend themselves and fall into bankruptcy.

I didn't read your entire post because you started saying things I'm sure you don't really know about. But regardless, what do you propose csm do to represent players? Pretend players are happy that there is no development of core eve?

Maybe they should just mumble about it a bit at the csm summit have ccp tell them to shut up and then come back and say - oh well we tried. CCP wants players input through the csm. It's csm's job to give it. That will benefit ccp and the players.

Make faction war occupancy pvp instead of pve https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=53815&#post53815

Othran
Route One
#132 - 2011-09-09 13:59:04 UTC  |  Edited by: Othran
Saerathus wrote:
Caius Sivaris wrote:

That "magical thinking" gives me a burn rate staying about the same in 2011 than in 2010 and thus CCP not being able to repay the 11M loan on its own, needing either a new round of financing or a new loan.

Maybe I'm wrong, maybe they sold so many monocles that their revenue is spiking, but I doubt it.


At some point after sleeping (and not now because I'm getting a bit punchy) I will probably go back to the OP and adjust my language on the financials point because that seems to be where I'm taking the most flack.

My experience with "burn rate" terminology is confined largely to project management (EVM), which is significantly different (but fundamentally the same thing). I appreciate your pointing out to me where exactly burn rate is being derived from in IFRS parlance.


The accounts have been gone over repeatedly by people who do this for a living.

The consensus amongst them was that Eve was stunningly profitable; CCP were burning cash on dev work (and the resultant issues with counting it as capex); CCP are cash-poor and being an internet company based out of Iceland does not help (for example they had to start paying staff in Euros after the crash - that required a loan too).

We're not making this stuff up you know?
Saerathus
Vocatio Ad Virtutem
#133 - 2011-09-09 14:14:08 UTC  |  Edited by: Saerathus
Othran wrote:


The accounts have been gone over repeatedly by people who do this for a living.

The consensus amongst them was that Eve was stunningly profitable; CCP were burning cash on dev work (and the resultant issues with counting it as capex); CCP are cash-poor and being an internet company based out of Iceland does not help (for example they had to start paying staff in Euros after the crash - that required a loan too).

We're not making this stuff up you know?


I don't think that people that can rationally convey an idea would make stuff up unless they were just ******* around, and this subject (CCP's current direction) seems pretty important to a lot of people - I am in agreement with those people too, I just think that it's being approached incorrectly.

As for profit; I never doubted that Eve was profitable. In fact, I'm pretty sure I still have a chart kicking around someplace here from some meeting that was comparing best-guess net profits on western MMOs per subscriber and it was on there. My doubt arose more from my experience with software publishers being fairly conservative about undertaking massive projects. From a planning perspective I've been indoctrinated by western publishers along the lines of "you can't afford to be hamstrung by your customers", and it seemed only natural from my point of view to apply that across the board. CCP is.. unnatural, apparently.
Othran
Route One
#134 - 2011-09-09 14:22:19 UTC
I'm still not sure you're getting what Iceland is like now but you're on the way....

We don't whinge for the sake of it - well some do - but because we are bloody annoyed. If we didn't give a toss we wouldn't be here.

My personal opinion is that CCP will (eventually) pull the plug on WoD. Pulling the plug on Dust would make more sense long-term (WoD will sell better) but they got into bed with Sony on Dust so there's bound to be some dev cash repayable if they pull that and they can't afford that now.

We'll see.
Richard Hammond II
Doomheim
#135 - 2011-09-09 14:25:40 UTC
Barricade Dark wrote:


It would be a strong move and its exactly what they should do. Quiting in protest is the strongest move they can make to get their message across.



b-but according to Mitens thats wrong

Goons; infiltration at its best - first bob... now ccp itself. They dont realize you guys dot take this as "just a game". Bring it down guys, we're rooting for you.

Zagam
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#136 - 2011-09-09 14:30:32 UTC
Very nice post, if a bit lengthy. As others have mentioned, the tl;dr crowd is missing out on a worthwhile read.
Richard Hammond II
Doomheim
#137 - 2011-09-09 14:43:20 UTC
Saerathus wrote:


And if THOSE things are blocked by NDA, then it raises a pretty important question. WTF?



better question if threatening to go to the media is blocked... going isnt? Lol I see Mittens' lawyer status. He pretends he didnt direct the media to his blog *bullshit* so he doesnt get busted

Goons; infiltration at its best - first bob... now ccp itself. They dont realize you guys dot take this as "just a game". Bring it down guys, we're rooting for you.

Charis Loftus
Doomheim
#138 - 2011-09-09 14:55:17 UTC
I do find it interesting that, unless a person is intimately familiar with the mechanics and politics of nullsec first hand, said person is considered to not really be able to have a legitimate opinion on the behavior of those who are involved. While I may or may not agree with the OP on every point concerning CCP and CSM, his ideas seeeeeem to be emphasizing the behavior of the playerbase a little more than the behavior of the others (though yes, he has spoken quite a bit on CCP/CSM).

But the prevailing attitude of "you can't talk, b/c you're not personally involved in xyz ingame" is silly, imo. This ideology would mean the termination of jobs for counselors of all kinds, since they speak directly of the situations of their patients without themselves being directly involved. I'm not speaking here of relative education or certification; only the idea of speaking on a matter out of observation without direct participation.

It's best to judge the argument based on the merits of the argument alone, and give the reasons why you can or cannot be in favor of it (unless, ofc, you are legally bound to remain vague). BTW, if/when someone tells me something incorrect about a given type of nuclear reactor, I can tell them they are incorrect, but I am legally bound to remain vague on certain things. Just sayin'.
Elyssa MacLeod
Doomheim
#139 - 2011-09-09 15:23:46 UTC  |  Edited by: Elyssa MacLeod
Another good reason they wont care is they support Mittens' ability to speak to outside press and dont censor them. They actually DONT care

I hate to put it this way but I cant back that up or Ill get in trouble
Oops

GM Homonoia: Suicide ganks are a valid and viable tactic in EVE.

Where is your God now carebear?

Charis Loftus
Doomheim
#140 - 2011-09-09 15:51:24 UTC
I love the avatar. 8. owait, wrong thread.