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Market Discussions

 
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Market data

Author
Jean Duchesnois
Discount Damsels Deluxe
#1 - 2017-06-09 15:53:36 UTC
Hello,

Recently I came back to trading. Before my break I had started to observe price history. It's intresting to see how price history of certain items can be linked to various events, but also how it sometimes loop. At the time, I noticed that for a reason that I haven't understood, most item's price seems to be bouncing between "tresholds". For exemple, the price will rise from 100k to 200k, then go back to 100k and rise to 200k again, over and over for 4, 5 times, sometimes even more. I was trying to investigate this and figure out how I could utilize this, but silly RL came in and I had to stop.

Now I'm trying to take things back from where I left them but it seems that I'm not going to achieve anything reliable unless I have more market data. Aka older than 1 year old.

Is there any way to find older market data than what's provided by the client ?
Kane Adestur
Low Friction Space Pilots
#2 - 2017-06-10 13:07:10 UTC
Sometimes it's useful to know where items come from to understand these movements.

Factional Warfare for example: The winning side will generate tons of Loyality Points and spend them in their LP store. That's one of the reasons why the price for Datacores is moving between "thresholds". Each faction LP store only offers a subset of Datacores. For example:

Minmatar: Hydromagnetic Physics, Molecular Engineering, Nuclear Physics, Minmatar Starship Engineering
Amarr: High Energy Physics, Laser Physics, Nanite Engineering, Amarrian Starship Engineering

There are some other sources for Datacores, like R&D agents and Exploration, but I think most Datacores are bought from FW LP store.

Last year, the Minmatar faction lost most of their systems to Amarr. Prices for Minmatar Datacores went up and Amarrian Datacores flooded into the market, driving prices down. Same for other FW LP goods, like Hurricane Fleet Issue, Vexor Navy Issue and so on.

It's a common rule of thumb that one LP should at least yield 1000 ISK to be worthwhile. This threshold might differ from person to person, like 1500 ISK/LP or 2000 ISK/LP.

At some point in time, the value for LP will drop below these threshold, making FW no longer wortwhile (from the ISK perspective). I've heard the rumor that most FW pilots have multiple accounts to maximize their income by switching sides at will, making FW just another grind for ISK.

Other movements might follow the same pattern, like Planetary stuff. If prices for Transmitters are high, PI producers might switch their planets to produce Transmitters. With some delay the market demand will be satisfied and prices drop until the producers switch back again.

I think it's possible to utilize these movements by stockpiling, but you will need huge amounts of ISK for this and you might need to wait months and months for prices to turn.

And don't forget about CCP changing things like drop rates (see Machariel!) or mining yields, with heavy impact on prices. And also: Inflation. ISK is generated all the time, increasing the total amount of ISK without end. Some people use rare items or PLEX as a sort of "Gold" to protect their wealth against this.
Diametrix
Black Rise Goods and Services
#3 - 2017-06-11 01:26:50 UTC
Kane,

Your post and explanation is very insightful and understandable. Thank you.

Understanding the mechanics that drive New Eden's economic cycles removes the veil of confusion and frustration that many players would otherwise attribute to poor game design.

It's all real - you just have to understand how it works.
Jean Duchesnois
Discount Damsels Deluxe
#4 - 2017-06-11 22:45:48 UTC  |  Edited by: Jean Duchesnois
Yeah, I've figured out such things. For instance, I'm in FW myself so this is a subject that I know quite well Cool

This kind of knowledge is really helpful and that's why I'm trying to stay fresh on patches, but also null war coming and fit used in doctrine, or FOTM ships and modules.

But there are some items that I think it would be possible to tell only "from the curves" if prices are going up or down.

For instance, if you take an item that is mass produced in high and all null. You know its production won't be really influenced by null wars and such and chances of hard shortages are really low. Additionaly, this item is used to produce a lot of various things, ships of every size / races, modules of any kind / tech level, so there's always going to be a need of it, so no mass oversupply

Then if you have such an item the only mechanics driving his price is what you described with transmitters, and speculation. Then, there must be a pattern that you probably could analyze and use with enough confidence to tell where the prices are going for this item.

But for this I would need some older market data. I don't know if through eve central or something like that you can get such data ?
salacious necrosis
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#5 - 2017-06-12 16:57:54 UTC
Regarding market data, depending on what you're looking for there are various sources. EVE Central and friends have quite a bit of historic data, switching to CCP provided data several months ago. As far as I know, they don't provide individual order snapshot data.

My own strategies have a need for both market history and order snapshots, so I started collecting both (from CCP) about a year ago. You can find a description of what is available here: https://evekit.orbital.enterprises//#/md/main . I retain 5 minute order book snapshots for every type in every region. These are uploaded nightly and available for download (warning: order book data is quite large). There's a live service you can use if you need data before the upload.

I use this data in the book I've been writing about EVE trading strategies. I posted about this several weeks ago. You may find some of that material useful. I'm close to finishing my chapter on market making (aka station trading), but I haven't yet started writing about some of the longer term trend analysis you're talking about.

Hope this helps.

sal

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