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Why doesent EVE have an in-game stock market?

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Tessa Sage
Long Pig Luncheon Meat
Sending Thots And Players
#21 - 2017-05-10 01:46:21 UTC  |  Edited by: Tessa Sage
Teckos Pech wrote:

Merin's point there is no mechanism for this. With hauling contracts there is a built in mechanism. For lending there is not.




Hi Teckos! If the hauling model is a placeholder, use it. The movement of goods indefinitely expedites the movement of ISK in most investment scenarios.
Merin Ryskin
Peregrine Industries
#22 - 2017-05-10 02:18:21 UTC  |  Edited by: Merin Ryskin
Tessa Sage wrote:
You are illustrating quite appropriately the risk factor of setting up this exchange.


There is no risk factor. It's either zero risk for the contract issuer (and therefore no reason for anyone to ever want to take that loan offer) or 100% guaranteed loss of whatever you loaned them with insufficient collateral to cover your loss.

Quote:
If a player offers another entity in the game assets toward the latter's investment conditions, the purpose is to cover the demand push, hazards and any other upfront setups / rewards to get something lucrative to the next level. This is entirely different from sale of assets into immediate ISK, for the investment terms would specify a potential return that both parties find attainable, beyond the calculable risk.


You're missing the point here, so let's break it down. I want to borrow 100 million ISK worth of something from you.

If the collateral I give you is less than 100 million ISK then I take your 100 million ISK loan and break the loan contract, making free profit at your expense.

If the collateral I give you is equal to or greater than 100 million ISK then I have no incentive to deal with you at all, I simply sell my collateral on the market and buy the 100 million ISK thing myself.

In neither case do you have a loan deal that two sane players will agree to. The ONLY use for the system will be for scamming people who don't understand how the scam works, just like the last time CCP tried to implement loan contracts (anyone else remember that?).

Quote:
Haulers do this all the time.


The difference is that the incentive is completely different. You can set a collateral worth more than the cost of whatever you're trusting someone with and they can reasonably expect to get their collateral back along with the contract payment. So situations exist where two informed and self-interested players can come to an agreement on a deal.
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#23 - 2017-05-10 05:09:52 UTC
Tessa Sage wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:

Merin's point there is no mechanism for this. With hauling contracts there is a built in mechanism. For lending there is not.




Hi Teckos! If the hauling model is a placeholder, use it. The movement of goods indefinitely expedites the movement of ISK in most investment scenarios.


Not sure that initiating such a mechanism would be very good though....

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Tessa Sage
Long Pig Luncheon Meat
Sending Thots And Players
#24 - 2017-05-10 19:51:51 UTC
Teckos Pech wrote:

Not sure that initiating such a mechanism would be very good though....

Merin Ryskin wrote:
In neither case do you have a loan deal that two sane players will agree to.


I agree, with many chances for fraud or otherwise excess hassle for either side of the investment, the scenario is unlikely. Where the involved parties find a Nash equilibrium in this process is going to take some blend of "customer testimonials" and contract completion %'s. The issuer of any loan will need to run as thorough of a background check on the recipient; the latter must have need for the funds beyond their own immediate liquidity. In a game / globe / fishbowl where it takes money to make money, you can be certain the demand for loans will take off. The question of trust as collateral-negating is a big one, and I can't say the game is ready to address that with current mechanisms.
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#25 - 2017-05-10 20:56:33 UTC
Tessa Sage wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:

Not sure that initiating such a mechanism would be very good though....

Merin Ryskin wrote:
In neither case do you have a loan deal that two sane players will agree to.


I agree, with many chances for fraud or otherwise excess hassle for either side of the investment, the scenario is unlikely. Where the involved parties find a Nash equilibrium in this process is going to take some blend of "customer testimonials" and contract completion %'s. The issuer of any loan will need to run as thorough of a background check on the recipient; the latter must have need for the funds beyond their own immediate liquidity. In a game / globe / fishbowl where it takes money to make money, you can be certain the demand for loans will take off. The question of trust as collateral-negating is a big one, and I can't say the game is ready to address that with current mechanisms.


I was not thinking of fraud. This is EVE, I'm fine with fraud and corp theft, and so forth. What I was worried about was all that ISK sitting in people's wallets suddenly flowing into the economy.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Tessa Sage
Long Pig Luncheon Meat
Sending Thots And Players
#26 - 2017-05-10 22:27:35 UTC
Teckos Pech wrote:
This is EVE, I'm fine with fraud and corp theft, and so forth. What I was worried about was all that ISK sitting in people's wallets suddenly flowing into the economy.


You and me both. It would have to go toward some kind of central bank perhaps.
Merin Ryskin
Peregrine Industries
#27 - 2017-05-10 22:57:32 UTC
Tessa Sage wrote:
I agree, with many chances for fraud or otherwise excess hassle for either side of the investment, the scenario is unlikely. Where the involved parties find a Nash equilibrium in this process is going to take some blend of "customer testimonials" and contract completion %'s. The issuer of any loan will need to run as thorough of a background check on the recipient; the latter must have need for the funds beyond their own immediate liquidity. In a game / globe / fishbowl where it takes money to make money, you can be certain the demand for loans will take off. The question of trust as collateral-negating is a big one, and I can't say the game is ready to address that with current mechanisms.


The problem with this trust verification idea is that the entities with a consistent record of being trustworthy are most likely to be the large and old entities that already have plenty of assets. The people that need loans the most are the newer entities that want to bypass the slow buildup to the endgame economy and go straight into business, but they're simultaneously the least trustworthy customers for a loan (other than known scammers).
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#28 - 2017-05-10 23:14:19 UTC
Tessa Sage wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
This is EVE, I'm fine with fraud and corp theft, and so forth. What I was worried about was all that ISK sitting in people's wallets suddenly flowing into the economy.


You and me both. It would have to go toward some kind of central bank perhaps.


That might make the problem even worse. Big smile

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

hog butter
Romex Inc.
#29 - 2017-05-11 01:13:19 UTC  |  Edited by: hog butter
Teckos Pech wrote:


You don't need an SEC. The SEC was founded in 1934, whereas the NYSE was founded in 1817.

What is needed is a way to enforce contracts between parties.


How do you parse the quote above? Having SEC (or analog) is integral in having enforcement between parties via arbitration or litigation.

You are right in that if you have an exchange even via contracts without enforcement surprise like anything else it is over taken with fraud.

Ironically United States has this very problem right now the SEC is captured by industry and ruling class own congress.
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#30 - 2017-05-11 05:35:46 UTC
hog butter wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:


You don't need an SEC. The SEC was founded in 1934, whereas the NYSE was founded in 1817.

What is needed is a way to enforce contracts between parties.


How do you parse the quote above? Having SEC (or analog) is integral in having enforcement between parties via arbitration or litigation.


It is not. The NYSE was founded over 100 years before the SEC. Clearly a stock market does not need the SEC. What it needs is a legal system in which participants trust reasonable and just decisions are made.


Quote:
You are right in that if you have an exchange even via contracts without enforcement surprise like anything else it is over taken with fraud.

Ironically United States has this very problem right now the SEC is captured by industry and ruling class own congress.


While regulatory capture is a problem, that is true just about everywhere you have advanced economies including Europe and places like Japan. This is probably one reason why growth over all is fairly low.

However, this is a thread about an in game stock market, not what is going on in RL economies.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

hog butter
Romex Inc.
#31 - 2017-05-11 08:56:54 UTC
Well as far as I see it the SEC is the cop on the beat and while its not popular this rolled must be filled. SEC needed to be created and was to restore confidence into the system which was torn to pieces by the great depression.

I bring up real life economics because they cannot be separated but also because that is what you're saying is no one has the confidence in the market to not be crooked. Courts are great but a court cannot function without a police officer. The police officer gathers the evidence and presents it to the lawyers who in a perfect world explore the evidence together with the court making the adjudication.

What your saying is EVE needs a function to collect evidence and have people enforce codicils. I think this could be done, but for the effort i'm not sure many people would be down for this in game. What your really doing is allowing the richest people in EVE to leverage their assets to an even greater degree.

I think this idea should really be something else entirely. Why not have a commodities futures market with in game minerals. I think I just blew my own mind. That would be awesome and you could have people play the market in ISK. The only problem being you may have an issue withe negative ISK balances i guess this could work with a bankruptcy system.

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#32 - 2017-05-11 09:04:22 UTC  |  Edited by: Teckos Pech
hog butter wrote:
Well as far as I see it the SEC is the cop on the beat and while its not popular this rolled must be filled. SEC needed to be created and was to restore confidence into the system which was torn to pieces by the great depression.

I bring up real life economics because they cannot be separated but also because that is what you're saying is no one has the confidence in the market to not be crooked. Courts are great but a court cannot function without a police officer. The police officer gathers the evidence and presents it to the lawyers who in a perfect world explore the evidence together with the court making the adjudication.

What your saying is EVE needs a function to collect evidence and have people enforce codicils. I think this could be done, but for the effort i'm not sure many people would be down for this in game. What your really doing is allowing the richest people in EVE to leverage their assets to an even greater degree.

I think this idea should really be something else entirely. Why not have a commodities futures market with in game minerals. I think I just blew my own mind. That would be awesome and you could have people play the market in ISK. The only problem being you may have an issue withe negative ISK balances i guess this could work with a bankruptcy system.



And yet oddly enough things were there was no SEC for 100 years. And please, lets just stop here before we get into the Great Depression. It was not caused by the stock market crash of '29.

I am saying that there is no way to seek redress if a contract is violated in game. If I say, "Lend me 20 billion, and I'll pay you back 25 billion in 2 months." And you then lend me the 20 billion and in 2 months I send you nothing you have no recourse. You can do pretty much nothing. It is not about some regulatory agency, it is about recovering damages and/or losses due to fraud. There is no such mechanism in the game and one cannot emerge in game. So unless CCP want to become some sort of arbitrator of player disputes a stock market nor a financial sector cannot emerge.

Any player led attempt will not succeed because there is no way to seek recourse. Even a player driven process will succumb to the problem of temptation of vast sums of ISK. Not to mention the issue of how are decisions going to be binding?

There is just no way for a more advanced financial system to emerge given the nature of the game.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

hog butter
Romex Inc.
#33 - 2017-05-11 10:01:40 UTC
Teckos Pech wrote:


And yet oddly enough things were there was no SEC for 100 years. And please, lets just stop here before we get into the Great Depression. It was not caused by the stock market crash of '29.

I am saying that there is no way to seek redress if a contract is violated in game. If I say, "Lend me 20 billion, and I'll pay you back 25 billion in 2 months." And you then lend me the 20 billion and in 2 months I send you nothing you have no recourse. You can do pretty much nothing. It is not about some regulatory agency, it is about recovering damages and/or losses due to fraud. There is no such mechanism in the game and one cannot emerge in game. So unless CCP want to become some sort of arbitrator of player disputes a stock market nor a financial sector cannot emerge.

Any player led attempt will not succeed because there is no way to seek recourse. Even a player driven process will succumb to the problem of temptation of vast sums of ISK. Not to mention the issue of how are decisions going to be binding?

There is just no way for a more advanced financial system to emerge given the nature of the game.


I'm not sure what your point is about the 100 years of NYSE with no SEC. Those were the bad old days if your saying SEC did something bad by existing I don't really follow. In your example CCP would be the proverbial cop on the beat. What your talking about is a lending or credit which I am sure CCP isn't keen on its players having access to because they sell PLEX.
mkint
#34 - 2017-05-11 15:54:43 UTC
Took a couple weeks break from the forums. Came back and you're still posting terrible ideas.

No: Because
1) cost. Making the feature will cost dev time, and $. It will see almost no use, just like shares do now, and the old loan contracts did. It will not see enough adoption to provide any value for the cost.

Well, I guess really that's the only point that matters. The idea is terrible not because it's inherently bad, but mostly because you came up with it. The version posted about 2 weeks ago by a dev could actually be something that sees some use. It's amazing how you can take someone else's idea, present it as your own and make it terrible. You've got a real talent there.

Maxim 6. If violence wasn’t your last resort, you failed to resort to enough of it.

manus
Subhypersonics
#35 - 2017-05-11 17:14:26 UTC  |  Edited by: manus
Rivr Luzade wrote:
manus wrote:
Quote:
Because stock exchange needs modern world's law and regulation system to operate but EVE,


Fake news. All a stock exchange is, is a way for players to trade shares.I

I laughed harder about this naivete than I probably should. Modern stock exchanges are not about trading shares, they are about speculating on how a market



You naive son of a *****. We are not talking about a modern stock exchange here. They are over complicated and over regulated. And there is no need for that in EVE online. So why are you talking about a modern stock exchange? Are you a moron?

You are delibarety complicating things for no reason. I suspect that you are another of the trolls who only hang out on features and ideas section to troll. Get a life.

Anyway, unlike Rivr Luzade who is a complete moron, the idea doesent have to complicated. You start out with basic functionality, list, buy and sell. Just take the current market browser and adapt it for shares. You would have different categories. 1B market valuation companies, 20B market valuation etc. This idea could be expanded to great lengths like i already mentioned and really introduce some interesting game mechanics for players. If you cant see that you are blind.



Quote:
Yes, indeed, trust is very important in the economy. But trust only works when you can enforce it and hold the parties accountable. That does not work in EVE, at all.


Im sorry but this is just ignorant. I dont know if Chribba is still around, but he is a great example of how trust is earned without being enforced. There will be plenty of people in EVE online who can build succesfull companies and grow the value of their shares based on their trust. Thats basically how EVE online works as a whole anyway. You also trust your corp mates to not steal etc. I dont see what the problem is.
manus
Subhypersonics
#36 - 2017-05-11 17:25:57 UTC
Do Little wrote:
If you want a stock market, set yourself up as a broker and create one. CCP doesn't need to create any tools. I can go to my wallet and give shares to anyone I please. They can give me ISK in exchange. Since this is a 100% trust based relationship, the only missing piece is a broker to bring buyer and seller together.


Ok well in that case lets take out the contracts system and the market browser then since people can just create their own contracts and market browser, right?
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#37 - 2017-05-11 18:20:41 UTC
We already have market speculation to some extent. We don't have a future's market so we can't do some of the more interesting things we see in RL, but we do have market speculation. If you think a patch is going to drive up the price of X you can buy X and hold it. If you are already holding X and you think the patch will drive the price down you dump your current holdings.

Speculation is not a bad thing. Speculators help bring information into markets so that the price reflects all as much information as possible.

The stock market is not going to work unless CCP builds something for it. What is a stock market, it is a way for people who have a business idea to go out and get money for that investment. Instead of using a loan, they give the investors a share of the business. There has to be trust here. No trust; no stock market. That trust has two forms.

1. That the people asking for investment money can be trusted to a reasonable degree.
2. If they are fraudsters, the legal system will impose penalties and allow investors to recoup some portion (at least) of their investment.

People have to have trust in both 1 and 2 for things to work, IMO. Now unless CCP builds not only the stock exchange, but also some sort of judicial/legal system into the game, a stock market cannot emerge spontaneously in this game.

As I noted before it is way, way too easy to avoid the negative aspects of engaging in corporate fraud and embezzlement. IRL, it is much, much harder. So in real life a legal/judicial system can and did spontaneously emerge as did markets and eventually a stock market. If you cheat in RL you can be locked up. How would that work in game? You have log in and not be able to dod anything at all? Perhaps if we made character death more permanent and costly....maybe.

So either CCP does it, and gets bogged down in listening to player grievances and taking a direct hand in resolving them, which is quite counter to CCP's previous approach to the game, or we just don't have one.

Further, another potential problem is once CCP starts interfering in player-on-player interactions it can lead to outcomes nobody foresees like a CCP judge making decisions that are aimed at promoting some sort of view of social welfare vs. simply deciding the case.

Finally, if there is a viable financial system then all that ISK sitting in people's wallets will flood into the economy. The inflationary impact could be quite substantial. And that might lead some to call for a central bank, which could itself lead to all sorts of unintended consequences (central banks have a pretty bad track record at managing monetary systems and economies). Basically this could be the camel's nose under the tent for CCP taking a more activist role in the game. Which in turn would make it less and less of a sandbox.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

mkint
#38 - 2017-05-11 23:14:04 UTC  |  Edited by: mkint
manus wrote:
Rivr Luzade wrote:
manus wrote:
Quote:
Because stock exchange needs modern world's law and regulation system to operate but EVE,


Fake news. All a stock exchange is, is a way for players to trade shares.I

I laughed harder about this naivete than I probably should. Modern stock exchanges are not about trading shares, they are about speculating on how a market



You naive son of a *****. We are not talking about a modern stock exchange here. They are over complicated and over regulated. And there is no need for that in EVE online. So why are you talking about a modern stock exchange? Are you a moron?

You are delibarety complicating things for no reason. I suspect that you are another of the trolls who only hang out on features and ideas section to troll. Get a life.

Anyway, unlike Rivr Luzade who is a complete moron, the idea doesent have to complicated. You start out with basic functionality, list, buy and sell. Just take the current market browser and adapt it for shares. You would have different categories. 1B market valuation companies, 20B market valuation etc. This idea could be expanded to great lengths like i already mentioned and really introduce some interesting game mechanics for players. If you cant see that you are blind.



Quote:
Yes, indeed, trust is very important in the economy. But trust only works when you can enforce it and hold the parties accountable. That does not work in EVE, at all.


Im sorry but this is just ignorant. I dont know if Chribba is still around, but he is a great example of how trust is earned without being enforced. There will be plenty of people in EVE online who can build succesfull companies and grow the value of their shares based on their trust. Thats basically how EVE online works as a whole anyway. You also trust your corp mates to not steal etc. I dont see what the problem is.

Sometimes responding to terrible ideas is fun.

One of the reasons real stock markets work is because there is a formalized structure around everything. A company has to qualify first. They have to demonstrate they deserve to be there. A barrier to entry is the first step in providing value. Every company that is on the market ostensibly has a personal stake in ensuring their own success and they are legally required to make the best decisions they can for the benefit of the stock holders, or they can go to jail. That does not exist in EVE. No jail, no enforcement agencies, no legal recourse. That's not something strictly required for corp leadership to be personally invested, but it is part of anteing up. EVE has proven over and over again that without collateral every financial agreement is a scam, full stop. The only way I can imagine simulating a real market is by having NPC market movers involved, and adding a few steps wherein corps have to buy their own stocks from NPCs before they can sell them on the market, but can eventually cash back out to NPCs. That way the shares are backed by collateral. However, even that would be a big hairy mess of game design to get right, and really not worth it.

edit:
A question to the OP because statements don't work. How much are shares worth in-game right now? Because that's how much they'd be worth with a functioning market.

Maxim 6. If violence wasn’t your last resort, you failed to resort to enough of it.

Merin Ryskin
Peregrine Industries
#39 - 2017-05-12 00:05:51 UTC
manus wrote:
Anyway, unlike Rivr Luzade who is a complete moron, the idea doesent have to complicated. You start out with basic functionality, list, buy and sell. Just take the current market browser and adapt it for shares. You would have different categories. 1B market valuation companies, 20B market valuation etc. This idea could be expanded to great lengths like i already mentioned and really introduce some interesting game mechanics for players. If you cant see that you are blind.


You do know that the very basic concept of shares already exists, right? And hardly anyone uses it? Let me give you a hint, the reason why nobody uses it is not the absence of a dedicated market section for buying and selling shares, it's because stocks in EVE are currently a fundamentally broken concept. Your proposed market would be empty.

Quote:
Im sorry but this is just ignorant. I dont know if Chribba is still around, but he is a great example of how trust is earned without being enforced. There will be plenty of people in EVE online who can build succesfull companies and grow the value of their shares based on their trust. Thats basically how EVE online works as a whole anyway. You also trust your corp mates to not steal etc. I dont see what the problem is.


Again, the problem is that the very few trustworthy entities in EVE tend to be the largest and wealthiest ones, and therefore the ones with the least need to raise money by selling shares. Meanwhile the younger and poorer entities that have the greatest need for selling shares rarely have any record to trust, so nobody will be interested in their shares. Any stock market would be a vast sea of scams, with maybe a rare genuine share in there somewhere that nobody trusts enough to buy.
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#40 - 2017-05-12 03:51:20 UTC
manus wrote:


Im sorry but this is just ignorant. I dont know if Chribba is still around, but he is a great example of how trust is earned without being enforced. There will be plenty of people in EVE online who can build succesfull companies and grow the value of their shares based on their trust. Thats basically how EVE online works as a whole anyway. You also trust your corp mates to not steal etc. I dont see what the problem is.


No, you have found the exception that proves the rule, nothing more. Further, as the ISK amounts rise the risk of a third party player scamming those doing business with him rise as well, or possible there is a change in mechanics and the third party decides to cash in.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

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