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No one talking about lead(s)?

Author
virm pasuul
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#1 - 2017-04-09 10:21:56 UTC
Given what was said by Fozzie and I think again by Fozzie and others on the balance panel in regards the ease of access to lead(s) no one is talking about it openly?

No timescale was given so it could be a wait. But the market has responded with a small rise for most of them, and the gap between buys and sells has widened. Some of the rises are not small the V is up 60 mill already since yesterday.

The CCP phrasing hinted strongly that it wasn't a nerfbat type problem, but to tackle ease of access which implies more up front cost(s). Would those up front costs affect smaller items in the same faction? For example if collecting to purchase is harder then it would affect the whole faction.

And yet no one is saying anything.......? :)
Everyone else is still building stock I am assuming?
voetius
Grundrisse
#2 - 2017-04-09 11:24:29 UTC

Unfortunately I have been working over the time that FF has been streaming so haven't been able to get up to date with the market gossip. For those of us that haven't been able to watch or participate could you say what "leads" are? Thanks.
virm pasuul
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#3 - 2017-04-09 11:36:52 UTC
DM sent.
Elgon Smitehand
Special law enforcement department
The Therapists
#4 - 2017-04-09 14:02:38 UTC
virm pasuul wrote:
DM sent.


You should send me something about these leads as well. Big smile
virm pasuul
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#5 - 2017-04-09 18:18:27 UTC  |  Edited by: virm pasuul
OK I expected a little more cat and mouse on this one but I guess not so time to let the cat out of the bag.
One way to make an easy fortune is to watch what CCP says very closely. A year or two back Fozzie ( it's almost always Fozzie ) talked about megacyte and zydrine being too cheap. It was almost a throwaway comment. The end result was fortunes being made and lost on those two minerals. Over 150% profit was easy.
There are many other examples.
To the point where Fozzie knows exactly the impact he can have and sometimes manages it. throws a curveball on purpose.
During fanfest he stated something twice.


leads = priate battleships
me trying to be clever, the chemical symbol for lead is Pb, also a pun on sales/market leads........

Fozzie commented on the large fleets of pirate battleships. They are soo cheap. Fozzie hinted heavily twice that they wanted to reduce access to them - I assume jack up the cost of the BPs in the LP stores.

As a single example Bhaalgorn was 250 mill in Amarr when Fozzie made the comment.
Compare this price to for example a popular T2 HAC Cerberus which has been hovering around 220 mill for a while now.
A T2 HA cruiser costs almost as much as a pirate faction battleship. Eyebrows arching much?

You have pirate battleships freely available at dirt cheap prices and being used in droves in low/null.

Disclosure - I have already made my investments into pirate battleships. Obviously I want the price to go up.
PS if you do decide to look into this there are HUGE regional variations between the different hubs. Do not get started without shopping around first.

Good luck.
Elgon Smitehand
Special law enforcement department
The Therapists
#6 - 2017-04-09 18:22:00 UTC  |  Edited by: Elgon Smitehand
Why didn't you just DM me.

Edit. I'd suggest buy Rattlesnakes obviously, and maybe Vindicators and Machs because of incursions.
virm pasuul
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#7 - 2017-04-09 18:22:30 UTC
Be fast :)
Do Little
Bluenose Trading
#8 - 2017-04-09 19:33:32 UTC
There is a difference between the mineral balance and the current discussion over pirate ship BPCs. The mineral rebalance was demand side - they adjusted bills of material, and non-discretionary - you can't build anything without minerals!

The pirate battleships are discretionary - nobody has to buy them. The nullsec fleet doctrines exist in part because they are cheap, excellent capability/ISK. If CCP imposes a supply side constraint, the price will go up but demand will go down. When doctrines change to a different hull, the people who own them because they are doctrine, will be selling.

Eventually things will settle down and prices will stabilize somewhat higher than they are today but it could take a long time. Factor in the time value of capital and there are probably better investments.

Of course, differences of opinion are what make markets work - every transaction needs both buyer and seller!
Alexi Stokov
State War Academy
Caldari State
#9 - 2017-04-10 00:10:32 UTC
Why are you referring to faction BS as leads? Fozzie code word?
virm pasuul
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#10 - 2017-04-10 08:35:19 UTC
me trying to be clever, the chemical symbol for lead is Pb, also a pun on sales/market leads........
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#11 - 2017-04-10 22:13:43 UTC
Bhaalgorn prints shot up 50% after fanfest.

Thing is, these are going to continue to drop in extreme numbers unless there is a major shakeup of null PVE, and/or a big war that disrupts null PVE. Drop rates on everything that comes from DED complexes were balanced around the pre-Tiericide days when these complexes were fleet content, not solo content.

We have at least a few more months of high supply even if the Blood Raider shipyards were to succeed at muscling out DED complexes in being the most lucrative form of null PVE.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Jori McKie
Know your Role
Fraternity.
#12 - 2017-04-11 10:53:42 UTC  |  Edited by: Jori McKie
I call the orginal theory bullshit, somebody ... just manipulated Bhaalgorns and Nightmares. Everything else has just a slight pinch upwards because it was very cheap the last weeks. Market history is your friend.
Looking at BPCs prices you can still produce for last weeks sell prices except for Bhaalgorns and Nightmares.

Sabriz Adoudel made the point.

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." - Abrazzar

Investor Joe
Litla Sundlaugin
#13 - 2017-04-12 04:49:04 UTC  |  Edited by: Investor Joe
bhaalgorns are bad, goons farm to many and they are not used nearly enough. machariels,rattlesnakes and nightmares are probably what you want to be looking at in that order

though i have not heard any actual details from CCP so this is probably gonna be a long term thing if you getting into it now
Skia Aumer
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#14 - 2017-04-12 10:37:22 UTC
It is a valid investment idea, but it can be a really long run. CCP have their hand full: they need to rebalance T3Cs first, as they announced, and they need to implement blood raider sites. So both team "spaceships stats" and team "NPC content" will be busy throughout the summer. During that summer prices for "leads" could dive much lower, and you'll be missing some other market opportunities either way, as you'll be short of cash.

Speaking of PBs - what do you think happened at the end of the February? Mach, Bhaal and Nightmare bounced significantly and simultaneously.
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#15 - 2017-04-12 11:35:13 UTC
Jori McKie wrote:
I call the orginal theory bullshit, somebody ... just manipulated Bhaalgorns and Nightmares. Everything else has just a slight pinch upwards because it was very cheap the last weeks. Market history is your friend.
Looking at BPCs prices you can still produce for last weeks sell prices except for Bhaalgorns and Nightmares.

Sabriz Adoudel made the point.



Bhaalgorn price rise was real, and this pleased me - I was sitting on dozens of them. 80m for the print was always ridiculous.

Nightmare price rise was real too, I posted a pack of 5 BPCs at a really ambitious price (1180m) and it sold today. Demand is real again.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Jori McKie
Know your Role
Fraternity.
#16 - 2017-04-12 13:44:25 UTC
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
Jori McKie wrote:
I call the orginal theory bullshit, somebody ... just manipulated Bhaalgorns and Nightmares. Everything else has just a slight pinch upwards because it was very cheap the last weeks. Market history is your friend.
Looking at BPCs prices you can still produce for last weeks sell prices except for Bhaalgorns and Nightmares.

Sabriz Adoudel made the point.



Bhaalgorn price rise was real, and this pleased me - I was sitting on dozens of them. 80m for the print was always ridiculous.

Nightmare price rise was real too, I posted a pack of 5 BPCs at a really ambitious price (1180m) and it sold today. Demand is real again.


I don't doubt that there is a kind of demand but if you check the market history you can clearly see heavy spikes in volume and of course in price after that. Combine that with very low prices some weeks ago i would call that manipulation. Anyway, the supply is deep and without intervention aka buy out the market prices will go down and are already seeing pressure.
Bhaalgorn, Rattlesnake and Machariel prices are close to collapse again to the old low some weeks ago. Only Nightmares seems to be steady.

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." - Abrazzar

virm pasuul
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#17 - 2017-04-12 18:30:18 UTC  |  Edited by: virm pasuul
Jori McKie wrote:

I call the orginal theory bullshit
................
without intervention


OK try this on for size. Found the first spot where they talk about CCP intervention during fanfest.
Please listen to all of what Fozzie says and try not to fixate just on Machariels.

https://www.twitch.tv/videos/133806766?t=01h18m40s

I will try and find the second segment where they go into it in more depth. But in the clip above they even announce that they will be talking about it.
virm pasuul
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#18 - 2017-04-12 18:40:16 UTC  |  Edited by: virm pasuul
Hokey dokey I thought this would take me ages, but I found it fairly quickly.
This is at the end of the ships and balance start to day 2.
The answer to an audience question leads into more about pirate battleships availability.

The first minute is just context, the meat and potatoes starts after the first minute.

https://www.twitch.tv/videos/133986045?t=01h02m00s

CCP Larrikin
"I think we are going to be looking at the balance and basically ease of accessibility of pirate battleships. They are probably a little too accessible right now."
my emphasis
Jori McKie
Know your Role
Fraternity.
#19 - 2017-04-13 06:16:41 UTC  |  Edited by: Jori McKie
virm pasuul wrote:
Hokey dokey I thought this would take me ages, but I found it fairly quickly.
This is at the end of the ships and balance start to day 2.
The answer to an audience question leads into more about pirate battleships availability.

The first minute is just context, the meat and potatoes starts after the first minute.

https://www.twitch.tv/videos/133986045?t=01h02m00s

CCP Larrikin
"I think we are going to be looking at the balance and basically ease of accessibility of pirate battleships. They are probably a little too accessible right now."
my emphasis


I admit i was too harsh and wrong but you sounded so ominous in your first post like the usual, "i have manipulated the market and need all jumping train".
Point is CCP will change the accessibility of pirate battleships in the future with a high probability. Question is when, next patch, next summer or winter. You see where i'm going and i doubt CCP will announce that beforehand it will be done quietly in the patch note.
Timing is the problem, if the changes happens soon everything is fine but if that happens in winter and everybody else stockpiled BPCs you will have a similiar effect when the BC/BS mineral changes happened. Not to speak of dead capital if you invest now and have to wait until winter or even longer.

Speaking of volume, only the Mach and Rattle have a good volume/turn over. Every other BS, well it will take ages to unload bigger amounts without destroying the margin.
Nobody needs Bhaalgorn in PvP anymore as Neut ship because of Capital Neuts. Aren't a PvE ship at all.
Vindicator as PvP ship is outshined by the Machariel in every aspect, sometimes you may need the 90%web (Gatecamps, Highsec Station). As PvE Ship very rarely used.
Nightmare as PvP ship has a small niche. As PvE Ship very rarely used.
Barghest as PvP ship has a small niche. As PvE Ship rarely used.

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." - Abrazzar

virm pasuul
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#20 - 2017-04-13 08:36:04 UTC
Jori McKie wrote:

I admit i was too harsh and wrong but you sounded so ominous in your first post like the usual, "i have manipulated the market and need all jumping train".
Point is CCP will change the accessibility of pirate battleships in the future with a high probability. Question is when, next patch, next summer or winter. You see where i'm going and i doubt CCP will announce that beforehand it will be done quietly in the patch note.
Timing is the problem, if the changes happens soon everything is fine but if that happens in winter and everybody else stockpiled BPCs you will have a similiar effect when the BC/BS mineral changes happened. Not to speak of dead capital if you invest now and have to wait until winter or even longer.

Speaking of volume, only the Mach and Rattle have a good volume/turn over. Every other BS, well it will take ages to unload bigger amounts without destroying the margin.
Nobody needs Bhaalgorn in PvP anymore as Neut ship because of Capital Neuts. Aren't a PvE ship at all.
Vindicator as PvP ship is outshined by the Machariel in every aspect, sometimes you may need the 90%web (Gatecamps, Highsec Station). As PvE Ship very rarely used.
Nightmare as PvP ship has a small niche. As PvE Ship very rarely used.
Barghest as PvP ship has a small niche. As PvE Ship rarely used.


Your argument and reasoning here is good. It's very true that we don't know when CCP will make the changes, and more importantly after those changes are made how long it will take for the effect to be reflected in the market. It's a shame you didn't start out like this.

I believe that the changes will be soon simply because of the potential amount of work involved. To adjust drop rates or change LP cost is trivial in work terms. It would probably take longer to discuss internally within CCP how much to change availability by than to actually implement the change. Also it's now been announced, maybe not formally shouted, but CCP could sneak it into any upcoming patch in the patchnotes as "the changes to pirate battleship we discussed at Fanfest have been implemented" Also at Fanfest in one of the two videos I've linked above they talk about it being quite a high priority.
The only thing that might slow it down a bit in my opinion is they did talk about possibly making balance changes to machariels and if they roll that in at the same time that could take a little more work = delay.

Different people play the market different ways. This may be better suited as a long term investment/gamble but already some people have siezed the opportunity. I don't think it's a simple market manipulation, I think it's a general trend that is already showing and will continue to show as traders do take a position in pirate battleships. Not everyone has the time or patience to 0.01 ISK. Some of us take a much longer slower turnover approach. I myself take a very longer term approach to he market and whilst you are right I am very illiquid but that suits my playtime and my margins are huge :)
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