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BREAKING NEWS - Federal Intelligence Office Begins Investigating Terro

Author
Pieter Tuulinen
Societas Imperialis Sceptri Coronaeque
Khimi Harar
#21 - 2017-03-17 14:33:34 UTC
James Syagrius wrote:
As I mentioned in another discussion yesterday.

James Syagrius wrote:
Shocking indeed that the FIO would be dare investigate the States latest blunder, the apparent attempt to weaponize... a 'particular agent'. Goodness knows why the Federal Intelligence Office might be interested in that.


The FIO often deals in the probable, facts being what they are. The old game of what we believe, what we know and what we tell.

Could it be a Federal scheme, it’s possible, but unquestionably not likely, considering the scale of revolution that would herald.

Fascinating indeed, that our State friends are so obstinate in their refusal to even consider the possibility, that it was, what it appears to be.

No wonder then considering the recent past that I have grown to accept as true that the word for peace in the State is seminomas with a lie.


Actually, James, it's more that the word for Federal Diplomat is synonymous with liar - because everytime they come talking about peace, something of ours seems to blow up. It's getting to be something you can set your watch by.

And, lo, just when peace seems to be on the verge of breaking out, we have yet another tragedy - this time breaking out in all four nations. Would you put it past the FIO to have engineered this? I wouldn't.

For the first time since I started the conversation, he looks me dead in the eye. In his gaze are steel jackhammers, quiet vengeance, a hundred thousand orbital bombs frozen in still life.

Graelyn
Aeternus Command Academy
#22 - 2017-03-17 14:44:45 UTC
Well, Roden stock prices are important, after all.

Cardinal Graelyn

Amarr Loyalist of the Year - YC113

Makoto Priano
Kirkinen-Arataka Transhuman Zenith Consulting Ltd.
Arataka Research Consortium
#23 - 2017-03-17 14:55:39 UTC
Skyweir Kinnison wrote:


Precisely.

The State had this pathogen under its control for twenty years. It is not unreasonable to start from the position that State actors may be responsible for trialling its use as a weapon.

And before the "Liberals" start bundling en masse back into the thread to express their mock outrage, consider that this is a nation quite capable of sentencing a city to a slow death from starvation. It's perfectly probable they infected the city to start with, for both experimental and deflective purposes.


Skyweir Kinnison wrote:
"Liberals"
mock outrage
they infected the city to start with


Do you really think we are so hateful that we'd sacrifice 36 million of our own in a false flag to kill eight million Gallente?

At the very least, this crisis is showing us who the bigoted idiots are.

Elsebeth Rhiannon wrote:
FIO: "You know, four simultaneous Kyonoke outbreaks are unlikely to be a coincidence or the work of any of the nation states in which they occured."

Bonus points for being the first official agency to actually say so, though.


That in itself is reasonable. Simultaneous outbreaks in all four empires sounds very much like a coordinated effort to start a pandemic, apparently thwarted by a rapid response on the part of local authorities.

What vexes me about the FIO statement is that it starts with the initial assumption Caldari extremists were the source, and confirmation bias is a terrible thing within an organization that for generations focused on the notion of Caldari aggression.

It's space, pilots. While this attack doesn't make sense from a state actor, the list of potential non-state actors remains very long, and we absolutely lack definitive data.

Itsukame-Zainou Hyperspatial Inquiries: exploring the edge of the known, advancing the state of the art. Would you like to know more?

Arrendis
TK Corp
#24 - 2017-03-17 15:21:43 UTC  |  Edited by: Arrendis
Makoto Priano wrote:

What vexes me about the FIO statement is that it starts with the initial assumption Caldari extremists were the source, and confirmation bias is a terrible thing within an organization that for generations focused on the notion of Caldari aggression.


No, it starts with a question: "Were Caldari extremists behind this?"

That's not an assumption of guilt, that's a 'We're going to look into this, so let's set up a rational the Senate will take so instead of complaining about the cost'.

Nor, for the record, does 'Caldari' mean a state (or State) actor. A group of nutjobs from Perimeter who think destabilizing everything will lead to wider war and the opportunity for the Caldari Navy to crush the Federation once and for all would qualify. Get the Empires looking inward, get them suspicious of their allies...

I'm not saying it makes sense, but nutjobs are, well, nutjobs.
Teinyhr
Ourumur
#25 - 2017-03-17 15:34:54 UTC
Makoto Priano wrote:

What vexes me about the FIO statement is that it starts with the initial assumption Caldari extremists were the source, and confirmation bias is a terrible thing within an organization that for generations focused on the notion of Caldari aggression.


Even if it did start with such an assumption, which it did not, Caldari extremists would be the most obvious candidates for a terror attack on the Federation.
For someone who hates nationalists, you seem to read these through very nationalistic lenses yourself.
Makoto Priano
Kirkinen-Arataka Transhuman Zenith Consulting Ltd.
Arataka Research Consortium
#26 - 2017-03-17 16:04:13 UTC
Teinhyr, by definition, the question 'Were Caldari nationalists behind this?' is more circumscribed than 'Who was behind this?'

Further, by circumscribing the area of focus to the attack on the Federation, instead of recognizing the very serious (and in the State's case far more severe!) attacks on the other signatory states, FIO predisposes itself to looking toward Caldari actors as a source.

Arrendis's case is the most reasonable description of one in which a Caldari non-state, extremist actor might justify attacks against all four nations, by attempting to create an Elder Fleet-like crisis that precipitates rapid movement.

At the same time, we lack anything remotely definitive about the attacks, and so that theory is tenuous if not simply specious.

And I'll be perfectly frank here: when Gallente nationalists are saying that clearly the State was trying to weaponize Kyonoke, and clearly the State is cruel and evil because we were compelled to quarantine 36 million of our own and that demonstrates our willingness to use bioweapons, I'm going to be forthright about obvious bias by an organization like FIO, and the danger of accepting their statements or judgments without critical analysis because it confirms our own biases.

What we know at this time can be summed up as so:


  1. Kyonoke originates from the Taisy system, where the Pit has been under cordon for over twenty years.
  2. Two or perhaps three breaches of the Pit have occurred. YC101, YC112 suspected, YC119. The latest is suspected but not confirmed to be the related breach.
  3. Ohmon Kasaras, Home Guard pilot on leave was found dead at the site, nature of involvement unknown.
  4. The Kasaras family, Jaron and Akira Kasaras, are missing, circumstances unknown.


So. Right now, we know a Caldari family was involved in some way, but we don't know if Ohmon was operating under duress, nor do we know the status of Jaron or Akira. We have theories about all of it, but lack information.

I could venture into the rarefied atmosphere with strange speculation about FIO and Gallente agents, considering that we all know the reputation of the Black Eagles, but frankly I think I've had enough of people speaking knowingly about whatever pet conspiracy theory they have.

Simply said, we lack information, and we need to get past flinging feces and to actually trying to work on this in a constructive way.

Itsukame-Zainou Hyperspatial Inquiries: exploring the edge of the known, advancing the state of the art. Would you like to know more?

Persephone Alleile
Tartarus Covert Operations
#27 - 2017-03-17 16:20:48 UTC
Tinfoil merchants must make a killing in New Eden.

Maybe one day we will get a resolution to the many multiplying mysteries in the cluster and then we can finally know who was right (which is what really matters it seems).
Arrendis
TK Corp
#28 - 2017-03-17 16:24:14 UTC
Makoto Priano wrote:
Further, by circumscribing the area of focus to the attack on the Federation, instead of recognizing the very serious (and in the State's case far more severe!) attacks on the other signatory states, FIO predisposes itself to looking toward Caldari actors as a source.


To be fiar, FIO might be using the investigation as a way to look into all four—and they almost certainly are doing just that. They'd never actually admit that, though, because they wouldn't want to openly confirm 'you know those assets in other empires we deny are us? We have them asking questions.' They're simply not going to ever publicly confirm 'we are currently conducting operations in all four empires' of any sort, even if we all know they and their counterparts do that every day.

So any public statements of current investigations will always refer only to events within the purview of the Federation government.
Teinyhr
Ourumur
#29 - 2017-03-17 16:33:30 UTC
Makoto Priano wrote:
Teinhyr, by definition, the question 'Were Caldari nationalists behind this?' is more circumscribed than 'Who was behind this?'

Simply said, we lack information, and we need to get past flinging feces and to actually trying to work on this in a constructive way.


So basicly you just said what I said earlier.

And you are one of those people flinging **** / inciting flamewars, right in the opening post, whether you admit it or not.
Makoto Priano
Kirkinen-Arataka Transhuman Zenith Consulting Ltd.
Arataka Research Consortium
#30 - 2017-03-17 16:38:56 UTC
Arrendis; I suppose that's a fair justification for deliberations with the Senate, to perhaps secure additional funding. At the same time, it certainly doesn't help with multilateral efforts to resolve a crisis. Of course, Blaque and Roden, as well you noted, have no particular desire to see multilateral efforts.

Teinyhr; by decrying nationalists, circular logic, and stated bias?

Well, paint me brown and call me a feces-flinger.

Itsukame-Zainou Hyperspatial Inquiries: exploring the edge of the known, advancing the state of the art. Would you like to know more?

Aria Jenneth
Societas Imperialis Sceptri Coronaeque
Khimi Harar
#31 - 2017-03-17 16:52:42 UTC
As a note, the Federal government has a little history of attributing what the Templis Dragonaurs do to the Caldari generally. It's a big part of how the original Caldari/Gallente war got started.
Teinyhr
Ourumur
#32 - 2017-03-17 16:57:04 UTC
Makoto Priano wrote:
Teinyhr; by decrying nationalists, circular logic, and stated bias?

Well, paint me brown and call me a feces-flinger.


By interpreting everything as negatively as possible. There are now what, two, three people here who have told you that nothing what you said was written in the release, it was how you decided to interpret it. Then you go on to complain about **** flinging, while going out of your way yourself to see things that aren't there.
Saya Ishikari
Ishukone-Raata Technological Research Institute
Ishuk-Raata Enforcement Directive
#33 - 2017-03-17 17:04:10 UTC  |  Edited by: Saya Ishikari
Aria Jenneth wrote:
As a note, the Federal government has a little history of attributing what the Templis Dragonaurs do to the Caldari generally. It's a big part of how the original Caldari/Gallente war got started.


This couldn't have anything to do with Priano-haani's expectations, now could it?

Also, Arrendis, I'd like to thank you for being rational in your thoughts and their presentation. It's refreshing to see a patch of calm in a field of noise.

"At the end of it all, we have only what we've left in our wake to be remembered by." -Kyoko Ishikari, YC 95 - YC 117

Makoto Priano
Kirkinen-Arataka Transhuman Zenith Consulting Ltd.
Arataka Research Consortium
#34 - 2017-03-17 17:18:10 UTC
My statements were a matter of degree, not a matter of falsehood. The issue, essentially, is that FIO's characterizations demonstrate circular logic or confirmation bias, as I've said multiple times. Here. Let me quote the article, just because you seem to have missed some points.

Thoun Gaterau, Lead Field Agent & Administrator for the Black Eagles wrote:
...has been launched to ascertain whether an extremist Caldari Nationalist attack is responsible...


Thoun Gaterau, Lead Field Agent & Administrator for the Black Eagles wrote:
My personal belief... is that an as of yet unknown quantity is involved, and has launched a deliberate attack against the Federation and our allies.


That is not, 'we're exploring all possibilities,' that's 'I personally believe that rogue Caldari nationalists were responsible,' from a senior official of the Black Eagles, nevermind that there have also been attacks against Genolution and the State.

And please note that while FIO's statements are not unequivocal, Gallente nationalists have already been treating the situation as if FIO's biases are proof of fact. Surely I need not mention the baseless claims by Syagrius or Kinnison?

So, yes, I'm going to read FIO statements with considerable suspicion.

I apologize for not implicitly trusting FIO to behave in an unbiased way, when the organization, by its very nature, is going to institutionalize a bias against the State and the Caldari people.

Itsukame-Zainou Hyperspatial Inquiries: exploring the edge of the known, advancing the state of the art. Would you like to know more?

Teinyhr
Ourumur
#35 - 2017-03-17 17:28:08 UTC  |  Edited by: Teinyhr
Makoto Priano wrote:
My statements were a matter of degree, not a matter of falsehood. The issue, essentially, is that FIO's characterizations demonstrate circular logic or confirmation bias, as I've said multiple times. Here. Let me quote the article, just because you seem to have missed some points.

Thoun Gaterau, Lead Field Agent & Administrator for the Black Eagles wrote:
...has been launched to ascertain whether an extremist Caldari Nationalist attack is responsible...


Thoun Gaterau, Lead Field Agent & Administrator for the Black Eagles wrote:
My personal belief... is that an as of yet unknown quantity is involved, and has launched a deliberate attack against the Federation and our allies.


That is not, 'we're exploring all possibilities,' that's 'I personally believe that rogue Caldari nationalists were responsible,' from a senior official of the Black Eagles, nevermind that there have also been attacks against Genolution and the State.

And please note that while FIO's statements are not unequivocal, Gallente nationalists have already been treating the situation as if FIO's biases are proof of fact. Surely I need not mention the baseless claims by Syagrius or Kinnison?

So, yes, I'm going to read FIO statements with considerable suspicion.

I apologize for not implicitly trusting FIO to behave in an unbiased way, when the organization, by its very nature, is going to institutionalize a bias against the State and the Caldari people.


Because arguing with you over what was actually said isn't apparently going anywhere, then I ask again - so what if they are implicating rogue Caldari nationalists? And what if the attack turns out to be carried out by rogue Caldari nationalists, what then? You're going to defend them? Or what? I'm really not understanding why the hell do you even care.
Again, for a proponent of a united front, you seem awfully desperate to find antagonism where there isn't.
Makoto Priano
Kirkinen-Arataka Transhuman Zenith Consulting Ltd.
Arataka Research Consortium
#36 - 2017-03-17 17:33:36 UTC
Ms. Teinyhr, are you saying that I should implicitly trust FIO to be unbiased?

Itsukame-Zainou Hyperspatial Inquiries: exploring the edge of the known, advancing the state of the art. Would you like to know more?

Hetu Hegirin
Doomheim
#37 - 2017-03-17 17:47:42 UTC
Quote:
[...] Gaterau elaborated his belief that "Kyonoke originates on the Caldari side of the border, and until two weeks ago it was a Caldari problem. It does not strike me that the Caldari administration would want to share this problem with the wider cluster [...]

Referring to the problem of Kyonoke, my reading of the emphasized portion is that the spokesperson appears to be tempering their suspicions (quoted previously) through reason. The unknown quantity is vast in its potentialities. Known actors and vectors are unlikely to be shared with us, based on the pattern exhibited by authority (not limited to the Federation or State) during this crisis.

It appears Gaterau betrays a personal bias only to later illustrate that judgement must spring from facts as yet unascertained. Compounding circumstances with premature conclusions is ill advised.
Arrendis
TK Corp
#38 - 2017-03-17 17:59:23 UTC
Makoto Priano wrote:


Thoun Gaterau, Lead Field Agent & Administrator for the Black Eagles wrote:
...has been launched to ascertain whether an extremist Caldari Nationalist attack is responsible...


Thoun Gaterau, Lead Field Agent & Administrator for the Black Eagles wrote:
My personal belief... is that an as of yet unknown quantity is involved, and has launched a deliberate attack against the Federation and our allies.


That is not, 'we're exploring all possibilities,' that's 'I personally believe that rogue Caldari nationalists were responsible,' from a senior official of the Black Eagles, nevermind that there have also been attacks against Genolution and the State.


No, in fact, it's explicitly not what you're claiming. At no point does Gaterau say he believes it's a specifically Caldari group, only that the investigation was launched with that specific question in mind. Again, if you want to investigate a series of terrorist attacks in an organization that answers to a group like the Federal Senate, you need to frame your investigation in a way that will get the Senators nodding their heads, rather than clutching their wallets.

Is he playing on their fears? Hell yes. Does it mean he believes that? No. Maybe he does, maybe he doesn't, but there is, in fact, no statement of 'I personally believe that rogue Caldari nationalists were responsible'. The only thing he explicitly says is 'We don't know who was responsible'. 'An as of yet unknown quantity' is 'nobody we've ever heard of'. If you think the FIO is unaware of the significant rogue Caldari nationalist groups, Makato, you're nuts.

I don't think you're nuts. I think you're just letting your own fears cloud your reading of his statement. Sometimes, people need a big organizational conspiracy to focus their fears at. It's a lot easier when you can quantify the thing you're worried about (and angry reactions, for the record, are just extroverted fear reactions) as a known quantity, like the FIO or the Federation, rather than someone you can't actually identify. Someone you can't identify could be anyone. They could be among your crew. So let me help you by giving you a different large, quantifiable organization to blame, one that doesn't stir up nationalist ire on either side, and one that probably won't give a crap if you blame them:

Here's how this works:

If you really want to get conspiratorial, you have to look for a new player in the military, economic, or political landscape around the Pit. Ideally, you'd want an organization with a history of violence, that's demonstrated they don't mind killing civilians and non-combatants, with some indication of wanting to be influential in high-security Empire space. Ideally, you'd also want members willing to use less than ethical methods to get what they want, and members or allies with biotech experience.

Now, I'm not saying that Mokk's forays into slaving, the nearby easy access to the Coreli Corporation's ties to Serpentis biotech research, or the deaths of millions on the M-O Keepstar only 1 gate away from the Pit are any indicators of involvement in this by Horde. Especially not Pandemic Horde. Clearly, they'd never treat the possibility of bioweapons lightly. I want that made very clear: I, personally, do not think Horde was behind this. I've got no evidence to say they were. I have no reason to believe they were. I'm not making that accusation. It would be irresponsible to make that accusation.

So I'm not making it. I don't know, I mean, I don't think they're behind this, but I hear that a lot of people are saying that's the kind of nexus of potential you'd want to be looking for in the perpetrators.

So there. Now you can obsess about Horde, and Horde can not care if you obsess about them, rather than more Caldari-Gallente fingerpointing at one another here.

For the record, Horde guys: It could just as easily be disgruntled representatives of an organization recently removed from that part of space, with easy access to biotech experts in nearby Fountain, who have a history of indiscriminate violence, economic warfare, and blatantly overt attacks on civilian shipping in highsec. The only reasons I didn't use us as the original 'OMG IT COULD BE NULLSEC' example are a)if it was us, we all know we'd be telling people it was us, and b)just the idea of a string of bioterror attacks by a group named 'Pandemic' anything is too perfect for the conspiracy theory.
Teinyhr
Ourumur
#39 - 2017-03-17 17:59:55 UTC  |  Edited by: Teinyhr
Makoto Priano wrote:
Ms. Teinyhr, are you saying that I should implicitly trust FIO to be unbiased?


No. I am saying you are regardless reading way too far in to things because of your own biases. We already know none of the empires or their governmental branches are unbiased, actually unbiased people, let alone whole nations are rarer than megacyte.

Let the FIO conduct its own investigations, who knows, maybe they'll uncover something. Then if or when they do, start piecing together that information and compare with other nations investigations and their findings, the truth is somewhere in the midddle, usually.

Or just continue stating the obvious and what everyone already knows for a few more pats on the back, I can't and won't stop you.
James Syagrius
Luminaire Sovereign Solutions
#40 - 2017-03-17 19:06:56 UTC
Makoto Priano wrote:
And now, pilots, we've had two very clear examples of why I hate nationalists, whether U-Nat or Provist.
Yes, yes, if you don’t like what someone is saying throw a label on them, then if you don’t discredit or marginalize them at least you can feel good about ignoring them.

I suppose I should throw a word at you… I have one in mind… but I am too much of gentleman to do so.

Pieter Tuulinen wrote:
Actually, James, it's more that the word for Federal Diplomat is synonymous with liar - because everytime they come talking about peace, something of ours seems to blow up. It's getting to be something you can set your watch by.


Yes, we have heard it before Pieter, 'we are the victims, if only you were nicer to us and ignored our duplicity….' You should make that the mantra of the State.

Pieter Tuulinen wrote:
And, lo, just when peace seems to be on the verge of breaking out, we have yet another tragedy - this time breaking out in all four nations. Would you put it past the FIO to have engineered this? I wouldn't.


Well, as I said, I wouldn’t either, but if they had, they would have done a better job of it and I doubt we would be having this conversation.

This level of idiocy my friend has the State written all over it.