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[Kyonoke] Contagion Tracking, Containment, Planning
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Aria Jenneth
Societas Imperialis Sceptri Coronaeque
Khimi Harar
#461 - 2017-04-11 00:50:19 UTC
Arrendis wrote:
Eighteen months of research on test subjects before field testing. Give me the percent chance of trillions of deaths that you think is too low to warrant that level of caution.


Arrendis, given the very high odds that someone like the EoM would decide to isolate some "basic" Kyonoke and then hit Jita 4-4, thereby guaranteeing exactly the kind of mass outbreak you're talking about with a lag time of just a few months?

I think I might even take 50/50.
Arrendis
TK Corp
#462 - 2017-04-11 00:56:24 UTC  |  Edited by: Arrendis
Aria Jenneth wrote:
Arrendis wrote:
Eighteen months of research on test subjects before field testing. Give me the percent chance of trillions of deaths that you think is too low to warrant that level of caution.


Arrendis, given the very high odds that someone like the EoM would decide to isolate some "basic" Kyonoke and then hit Jita 4-4, thereby guaranteeing exactly the kind of mass outbreak you're talking about with a lag time of just a few months?

I think I might even take 50/50.


Then why haven't they already done it?

And just to be clear here: you're ok with a 50% chance of something going wrong and trillions of people dying, when it could be prevented by taking eighteen months to make sure.

What. The. Hel?

Edit to add: All this time, and all this pushing, and you finally drop the 'Ms.' and just call me 'Arrendis'. Hot damn, I should've yelled at you for a weekend a long time ago.
Morgana Tsukiyo
Samsara Dynamics
#463 - 2017-04-11 01:16:50 UTC
Arrendis, i can understand your concern for proper procedure, but the options on the table were.

1 - Kill everyone and burn everything

2 - Test a possible cure, see if it´s ok to clear the people after some time, burn everything. If needed, kill everyone.

Would you not give the people some time for a chance of survival?

Join Project Transcendence.

Applied technology for the enhancement of human experience.
Aria Jenneth
Societas Imperialis Sceptri Coronaeque
Khimi Harar
#464 - 2017-04-11 01:19:00 UTC  |  Edited by: Aria Jenneth
Arrendis wrote:
Aria Jenneth wrote:
Arrendis wrote:
Eighteen months of research on test subjects before field testing. Give me the percent chance of trillions of deaths that you think is too low to warrant that level of caution.


Arrendis, given the very high odds that someone like the EoM would decide to isolate some "basic" Kyonoke and then hit Jita 4-4, thereby guaranteeing exactly the kind of mass outbreak you're talking about with a lag time of just a few months?

I think I might even take 50/50.


Then why haven't they already done it?

And just to be clear here: you're ok with a 50% chance of something going wrong and trillions of people dying, when it could be prevented by taking eighteen months to make sure.

What. The. Hel?

Edit to add: All this time, and all this pushing, and you finally drop the 'Ms.' and just call me 'Arrendis'. Hot damn, I should've yelled at you for a weekend a long time ago.


... Have you actually been pushing? I tend to be a little formal by default, and either never knew or had forgotten that you preferred "Arrendis."

Probably should have guessed, though.

As for why they haven't already done it: (1) it requires acquiring the pathogen, which is still tricky even with multiple hot zones; (2) isolating the "basic" speck would take a little time, though probably just a few days (wait for the host to die, then wait a while longer for the "advanced" to also die, then go collect your samples and make your weapon); (3) there's no indication they haven't-- there likely wouldn't be any reason to suspect a problem until people started getting sick several months later, at which point outbreaks would explode all over New Eden and it would be too late.

Which is the point.

Jita 4-4 supplies basically everybody to some extent. Spread the specks effectively, and you'd probably even get Anoikis that way. So, yes, I'm good with 50/50 odds of something awful happening to prevent a near certainty of someone being able to pull off that kind of high-grade extinction event horror show.

It's worth remembering: Koyonoke is catnip for anybody who'd happily kill everybody.
Elmund Egivand
Tribal Liberation Force
Minmatar Republic
#465 - 2017-04-11 01:35:09 UTC  |  Edited by: Elmund Egivand
Look, it's perfectly acceptable to want to develop a cure. However, if you are going to develop *anything*, you better do it right. You will more frequently not do *anything* right if you are making it a *rush job*.

I don't know how the Caldari handles deadlines, but where I am from, we had long discovered that rushing a deadline never helps. It overwhelms the workers and the machines, causing them to make far more mistake. Seriously, if you can't make the deadline, just bloody say so, extend the deadline (make it reasonable) and continue working on it and make sure it's done right!

Even more so when we are dealing with things that will be administrated to the cluster. Mistakes in a Kyonoke vaccine will be disastrous especially so when it is going to be distributed to, what appeared to be, everyone in the cluster. The risk of killing someone who isn't even infected due to careless mistakes made by *rushing* the job is far too great.

No, you can't solve this problem by throwing more people at it.

Seriously. If 'the patient is gonna die if we do not transplant right now' is not an acceptable excuse for anaphylactic shock in an organ transplant patient due to the usage of contaminated stem cells or collagen scaffolding used for regrowing said organ, why are we accepting 'because a trillion people will die' as an excuse for rushing a vaccine that might end up killing twice that number due to insufficient rigorous safety tests and checks on reproducibility?

A Minmatar warship is like a rusting Beetle with 500 horsepower Cardillac engines in the rear, armour plating bolted to chassis and a M2 Browning stuck on top.
Morgana Tsukiyo
Samsara Dynamics
#466 - 2017-04-11 01:41:11 UTC
Elmund Egivand wrote:

Even more so when we are dealing with things that will be administrated to the cluster.


Why are you presuming the procedures will be applied to the cluster? It concerns the ones on quarantine zones. The ones that were about to die anyway.



Join Project Transcendence.

Applied technology for the enhancement of human experience.
Aria Jenneth
Societas Imperialis Sceptri Coronaeque
Khimi Harar
#467 - 2017-04-11 01:41:12 UTC
As one of the trillion, I might admittedly be a little biased.

(I don't have anything against my backup clone, but she definitely hasn't had the same weekend I did.)
Elmund Egivand
Tribal Liberation Force
Minmatar Republic
#468 - 2017-04-11 01:45:07 UTC
Aria Jenneth wrote:
As one of the trillion, I might admittedly be a little biased.

(I don't have anything against my backup clone, but she definitely hasn't had the same weekend I did.)


You should probably strangle the idiot who can't even quarantine right. That one has no excuse!

A Minmatar warship is like a rusting Beetle with 500 horsepower Cardillac engines in the rear, armour plating bolted to chassis and a M2 Browning stuck on top.
Aria Jenneth
Societas Imperialis Sceptri Coronaeque
Khimi Harar
#469 - 2017-04-11 01:50:30 UTC  |  Edited by: Aria Jenneth
Elmund Egivand wrote:
Aria Jenneth wrote:
As one of the trillion, I might admittedly be a little biased.

(I don't have anything against my backup clone, but she definitely hasn't had the same weekend I did.)


You should probably strangle the idiot who can't even quarantine right. That one has no excuse!


If I understand things right, he's got an excellent excuse: "that one" was, I believe, the Vulture. He introduced plague onto the station on purpose-- was the main source of it, even.

And, strangling would probably be pretty kind compared to whatever's presently happening to him.
Elmund Egivand
Tribal Liberation Force
Minmatar Republic
#470 - 2017-04-11 01:54:16 UTC  |  Edited by: Elmund Egivand
Morgana Tsukiyo wrote:
Elmund Egivand wrote:

Even more so when we are dealing with things that will be administrated to the cluster.


Why are you presuming the procedures will be applied to the cluster? It concerns the ones on quarantine zones. The ones that were about to die anyway.





And it will, eventually, end up being administrated to everyone else not in the quarantine zones because, get this, the Kyonoke Pit is still there and last I checked, there are still contaminated ships out there that haven't been accounted for.

Edit: Welp, I suggest that the quarantine zone patients will be kept in quarantine for another 18 months after administration of the vaccine to ensure that none of them is going to keel over suddenly from a resurgence or whatever. They are effectively test subjects at this point.

A Minmatar warship is like a rusting Beetle with 500 horsepower Cardillac engines in the rear, armour plating bolted to chassis and a M2 Browning stuck on top.
Morgana Tsukiyo
Samsara Dynamics
#471 - 2017-04-11 01:59:02 UTC
Elmund Egivand wrote:

And it will, eventually, end up being administrated to everyone else not in the quarantine zones because, get this, the Kyonoke Pit is still there and last I checked, there are still contaminated ships out there that haven't been accounted for.


A scenario that would still be happening even if people torched the quarantine zones, but this time without a cure involved.

I´m really trying to understand the arguments, but i can´t help but wonder if some of what is written is just ill intent.

The "nuke from above" is still on the table.

Join Project Transcendence.

Applied technology for the enhancement of human experience.
Elmund Egivand
Tribal Liberation Force
Minmatar Republic
#472 - 2017-04-11 02:05:14 UTC  |  Edited by: Elmund Egivand
Morgana Tsukiyo wrote:
Elmund Egivand wrote:

And it will, eventually, end up being administrated to everyone else not in the quarantine zones because, get this, the Kyonoke Pit is still there and last I checked, there are still contaminated ships out there that haven't been accounted for.


A scenario that would still be happening even if people torched the quarantine zones, but this time without a cure involved.

I´m really trying to understand the arguments, but i can´t help but wonder if some of what is written is just ill intent.

The "nuke from above" is still on the table.


My suggestion isn't 'sterilisation', it's 'don't rush the vaccine!'. Because rushing a vaccine is also going to end up killing more than just the quarantine zone patients and worse, that error could had been prevented by *not* rushing the vaccine.

You are thinking of the binary choice of 'develop vaccine' and 'sterilise quarantine zone' instead of the specifics of 'develop vaccine', which is just as important, if not more so, than the previous binary choices. Don't think because decisions fell on 'develop the vaccine', everything is suddenly fine and dandy. Potential of a serious screw up is still there.

A Minmatar warship is like a rusting Beetle with 500 horsepower Cardillac engines in the rear, armour plating bolted to chassis and a M2 Browning stuck on top.
Morgana Tsukiyo
Samsara Dynamics
#473 - 2017-04-11 02:07:58 UTC
Elmund Egivand wrote:

My suggestion isn't 'sterilisation', it's 'don't rush the vaccine!'.


Let´s start from there then.

You have millions of people trapped in quarantine zones with a killer pathogen. They are dying.

You have something that might make them stop dying.

What do you do with it?

Join Project Transcendence.

Applied technology for the enhancement of human experience.
Elmund Egivand
Tribal Liberation Force
Minmatar Republic
#474 - 2017-04-11 02:10:59 UTC
Morgana Tsukiyo wrote:
Elmund Egivand wrote:

My suggestion isn't 'sterilisation', it's 'don't rush the vaccine!'.


Let´s start from there then.

You have millions of people trapped in quarantine zones with a killer pathogen. They are dying.

You have something that might make them stop dying.

What do you do with it?


Again, don't rush the vaccine. Develop it regardless, still run proper testing procedures, DO IT RIGHT! The possibility of a million deaths in quarantine is no excuse for accidentally causing another million deaths because your vaccine isn't properly tested before administration.

A Minmatar warship is like a rusting Beetle with 500 horsepower Cardillac engines in the rear, armour plating bolted to chassis and a M2 Browning stuck on top.
Morgana Tsukiyo
Samsara Dynamics
#475 - 2017-04-11 02:15:04 UTC
Elmund Egivand wrote:

Again, don't rush the vaccine. Develop it regardless, still run proper testing procedures, DO IT RIGHT! The possibility of a million deaths in quarantine is no excuse for accidentally causing another million deaths because your vaccine isn't properly tested before administration.



From what i understand then, just let them die while you develop a formally tested vaccine?

Join Project Transcendence.

Applied technology for the enhancement of human experience.
Elmund Egivand
Tribal Liberation Force
Minmatar Republic
#476 - 2017-04-11 02:17:36 UTC  |  Edited by: Elmund Egivand
Morgana Tsukiyo wrote:
Elmund Egivand wrote:

Again, don't rush the vaccine. Develop it regardless, still run proper testing procedures, DO IT RIGHT! The possibility of a million deaths in quarantine is no excuse for accidentally causing another million deaths because your vaccine isn't properly tested before administration.



From what i understand then, just let them die while you develop a formally tested vaccine?


Use them as part of the test then.

The moment they are stuck in quarantine they are already dead men walking. Use them to save the rest of the cluster. If any of them are saved after 18 months of testing, that's a bonus.

You have to think in terms of the greater picture, not just in terms of 'millions of quarantined patients'. Are you going to risk trillions just to save millions? To allow the administration of a poorly tested vaccine, declare the millions are saved, release them, and risk having them displaying symptoms all over again and infect everyone else?

A Minmatar warship is like a rusting Beetle with 500 horsepower Cardillac engines in the rear, armour plating bolted to chassis and a M2 Browning stuck on top.
Morgana Tsukiyo
Samsara Dynamics
#477 - 2017-04-11 02:22:01 UTC
Elmund Egivand wrote:

Use them as part of the test then.

The moment they are stuck in quarantine they are already dead men walking. Use them to save the rest of the cluster. If any of them are saved after 18 months of testing, that's a bonus.


But that is exactly what is being done!

They are the test ground for a vaccine prototype, they are being monitored, they will be watched, the efficacy will be tested, they will be observed for a while and then when everything is properly analyzed, we´ll have a final version.

If somehting goes bad in the meantime, burn everything and keep researching.

Join Project Transcendence.

Applied technology for the enhancement of human experience.
Arrendis
TK Corp
#478 - 2017-04-11 02:23:16 UTC
Morgana Tsukiyo wrote:
Arrendis, i can understand your concern for proper procedure, but the options on the table were.

1 - Kill everyone and burn everything

2 - Test a possible cure, see if it´s ok to clear the people after some time, burn everything. If needed, kill everyone.

Would you not give the people some time for a chance of survival?


Let's be clear here: I don't care about procedure for the sake of procedure. I care about proper testing and safety measures because of why they exist.

Yes, I want to give those people every chance for surviving. I do not want to offer them false hope. False hope is cruelty. It inflicts more harm atop the original fear and worry. I also don't want to hold out hope to them that turns into not just disappointment, but harm to even more people.

You say one of the options is 'burn everything if needed', but we've just today gotten Aria saying that miners managed to get out of the Astral Mining station and making it into the Keepstar without being stopped, without any noticeable response or even indications that they were seen by the security forces in space around the two stations.

Why do I say that? Because there were capsuleers around those stations, and they haven't reported any indications of security movements, just in case those miners went running for the nearest stargate. So as far as we know, there is no indication that security was aware of them slipping the Astral Mining perimeter.

And that gives me absolutely no reason to believe that the quarantines are currently providing effective containment. You can't make lax safety protocols ok by adding another layer of poor safety measures.

So yes, I would love to give those people some time for a chance of survival... but not at the cost of endangering everyone else. I'd kinda like to give all those people the best possible chance for survival, too.
Elmund Egivand
Tribal Liberation Force
Minmatar Republic
#479 - 2017-04-11 02:25:09 UTC  |  Edited by: Elmund Egivand
Morgana Tsukiyo wrote:
Elmund Egivand wrote:

Use them as part of the test then.

The moment they are stuck in quarantine they are already dead men walking. Use them to save the rest of the cluster. If any of them are saved after 18 months of testing, that's a bonus.


But that is exactly what is being done!

They are the test ground for a vaccine prototype, they are being monitored, they will be watched, the efficacy will be tested, they will be observed for a while and then when everything is properly analyzed, we´ll have a final version.

If somehting goes bad in the meantime, burn everything and keep researching.


That is the proper way to handle vaccine development.

Though seriously, I will go further and say they should remain in quarantine for another three years or so to properly make sure they are not going to suddenly keel over. Until the end of that quarantine period, keep them fed via drone delivery of necessity supplies.

And I mean actually quarantine them!

A Minmatar warship is like a rusting Beetle with 500 horsepower Cardillac engines in the rear, armour plating bolted to chassis and a M2 Browning stuck on top.
Aria Jenneth
Societas Imperialis Sceptri Coronaeque
Khimi Harar
#480 - 2017-04-11 02:25:46 UTC
Elmund Egivand wrote:
You have to think in terms of the greater picture, not just in terms of 'millions of quarantined patients'. Are you going to risk trillions just to save millions? To allow the administration of a poorly tested vaccine, declare the millions are saved, release them, and risk having them displaying symptoms all over again and infect everyone else?


I would, for the reasons given above.

Unchecked, Kyonoke is a massive gift to extinctionists like the Equilibrium of Mankind (the "equilibrium" they seek being the kind matter and antimatter attain-- annihilation). Spread the "basic" speck on Jita 4-4, and and even Anoikis would likely get hit.

Also, it's not properly a vaccine, I don't think. It's ... I'm not sure what, but Arrendis and I were both kind of speculating it was likely nanite-based (and she was yelling at me for speculating, but, eh).