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[Kyonoke] Contagion Tracking, Containment, Planning

Author
Mizhara Del'thul
Kyn'aldrnari
#441 - 2017-04-10 22:22:13 UTC
Ignoring potential hazards and risks - especially ones with such massive potential for danger on large scales - is a tad foolhardy. Shouldn't be surprised people are looking for some answers to some very vital questions in this regard.

All of which could be solved with some actually decent bloody information being shared, with something even remotely close to consistency at that. Now we're treating infections with antidotes and we've already been through prions, viruses, bacteria at this point.

If this had been fiction, the plotholes would have had it boo'd off whatever venue or medium it came on. It's honestly weird to see how quickly people just blindly accept all the things that make no sense nor have even the slightest relationship with consistency.
Makoto Priano
Kirkinen-Arataka Transhuman Zenith Consulting Ltd.
Arataka Research Consortium
#442 - 2017-04-10 22:24:45 UTC
Science reporting is always terrible.

Itsukame-Zainou Hyperspatial Inquiries: exploring the edge of the known, advancing the state of the art. Would you like to know more?

Morgana Tsukiyo
Samsara Dynamics
#443 - 2017-04-10 22:32:28 UTC
Yes i agree that for such dire events, we should be getting a flood of reporting on a 24h basis from all media outlets. But we already know that ACN decided not to talk about the things happening, and The Scope is providing some information, but on broad strokes only.

I´m not disagreeing with you on that. I tried to present all the public data on the subject, but since i was not at the inquest, i can´t provide the finer details of backroom deals, fineprint on the resolutions and so on.

However, all in all we still have margin for optimism.

Simply scorching the earth and killing all the infected subjects makes room for that "one that escaped" and the cycle would start over with the weaponization of the kyonoke and very bad things happening in the near future, specially with the renewal of the major factions going for the throats of each other accusing everyone of "Not helping" and "Being responsible".

Sharing the intel is a good step, i just fail to understand how the hell such an important topic was dealth by the factions in a binary way, specially since the proposals weren´t mutually exclusive.

That intrigues me the most.

Join Project Transcendence.

Applied technology for the enhancement of human experience.

Aria Jenneth
Societas Imperialis Sceptri Coronaeque
Khimi Harar
#444 - 2017-04-10 22:41:02 UTC
Makoto Priano wrote:
You know, dealing with Arrendis's constant needling is about as productive as trying to argue with Diana Kim.

I advise not worrying about it.

Well ... but she asks worthwhile questions that I kind of want to answer where I have information to. It's kind of fun as long as she's not trying to put me in a joint lock and pull my shoulder out of its metaphorical socket.

Makoto Priano wrote:
Science reporting is always terrible.

Oh so very much this. Only, I'm not a scientist even if I'm a little keen on following scientific stuff, so I probably make some of the same mistakes.
Arrendis
TK Corp
#445 - 2017-04-10 23:05:40 UTC
Morgana Tsukiyo wrote:
Meds are being tested, quarantined people are not being torched, conspiracy is being investigated, people are happy to be alive, factions cooperated and a crisis was averted.

Can we be happy for this and focus on productive actions from now on?


No, see, that's it, they're not being tested. They're being rushed out to the quarantine zones. That's not a controlled environment. That's not rigorous testing with proper safety measures in place. And if you think it is, how often do you support testing new, experimental munitions in childrens' classrooms?

Honestly, what is wrong with you people that you think this slipshod, improvisational approach to the lives of the apparently trillions of people in one city and four space stations isn't complete nonsense?
Arrendis
TK Corp
#446 - 2017-04-10 23:09:08 UTC
Makoto Priano wrote:
Science reporting is always terrible.


YOU'RE the one that called it a 'proper update'. If it's terrible, it's terrible. SAY SO. Don't hold up something terrible and say 'see? Isn't this a good, thorough report that gives you useful information?'

WHAT. THE. HEL?
Morgana Tsukiyo
Samsara Dynamics
#447 - 2017-04-10 23:10:46 UTC
Arrendis wrote:

No, see, that's it, they're not being tested. They're being rushed out to the quarantine zones. That's not a controlled environment. That's not rigorous testing with proper safety measures in place. And if you think it is, how often do you support testing new, experimental munitions in childrens' classrooms?

Honestly, what is wrong with you people that you think this slipshod, improvisational approach to the lives of the apparently trillions of people in one city and four space stations isn't complete nonsense?


Between the outright elimination of all the people on the quarantine zones, and a rushed out "don´t know what will happen but they´re all secured in one location so if somehitng happen on the long term we´ll know", i go for option 2.

I´m not seeing as a cure, i´m seeing this as a controled experiment where we have all the elements to analyze on the long run the results.

And this means keeping the people in quarantine until we get the results from the tests.

Better than going Ammar trials on them.

Join Project Transcendence.

Applied technology for the enhancement of human experience.

Aria Jenneth
Societas Imperialis Sceptri Coronaeque
Khimi Harar
#448 - 2017-04-10 23:17:09 UTC
Arrendis wrote:
No, see, that's it, they're not being tested. They're being rushed out to the quarantine zones. That's not a controlled environment. That's not rigorous testing with proper safety measures in place. And if you think it is, how often do you support testing new, experimental munitions in childrens' classrooms?

Honestly, what is wrong with you people that you think this slipshod, improvisational approach to the lives of the apparently trillions of people in one city and four space stations isn't complete nonsense?


Quarantine zones: relatively controlled environment.

Expected survival rate inside quarantine zones in absence of cure: zero.

Expected survival rate inside quarantine zones in presence of cure: probably not much, considering the time frame, but likely higher than zero. H4-RP4 got some surprising visitors midway through the Inquest: a couple miners who'd apparently survived on the plague-stricken mining platform and somehow crossed to the citadel.

Expected amount of information to be gathered thereby: lots.

Duration survivors can be detained under quarantine: indefinite (but I'm really hoping circumstances and data align in a way that lets me go home soon).

Probability of eventual nanoshield failure over Myrskaa, risking and perhaps guaranteeing infection of entire planet: high, approaching certainty given time and/or malicious actions by various parties.

(Also, the expected death toll of "trillions" was assuming further quarantine failures and additional spread, I think, probably-- the stuff's infamous for breaking containment, so, they might have been assuming it would eventually do exactly that.)
Arrendis
TK Corp
#449 - 2017-04-10 23:18:05 UTC
Morgana Tsukiyo wrote:

Between the outright elimination of all the people on the quarantine zones, and a rushed out "don´t know what will happen but they´re all secured in one location so if somehitng happen on the long term we´ll know", i go for option 2.


Really? You think they're going to be secured in their locations over the long term? I'm willing to bet the capsuleers in that Keepstar won't even be there a month.

Quote:

I´m not seeing as a cure, i´m seeing this as a controled experiment where we have all the elements to analyze on the long run the results.


And it's not a controlled experiment. No, you do not have 'all the elements to analyze on the long run'. Isolate every single environmental factor in a city. Go on. Do it. Adults. Children. Seniors. People at every single stage of hormonal development.

That's not a controlled environment. It's not even close.

Quote:

And this means keeping the people in quarantine until we get the results from the tests.


Again: You won't see the capsuleers in that Keepstar there for even a month. Most of them will jumpclone out via medbay, which means they'll be flash-copying over their neurology, which we know from statements made in here can be distorted and altered by the "antidote" as well as by the initial disease.

So, yeah, controlled conditions? This isn't even 'weapons control means hitting your target' levels of control here.
Arrendis
TK Corp
#450 - 2017-04-10 23:20:34 UTC  |  Edited by: Arrendis
Aria Jenneth wrote:

Quarantine zones: relatively controlled environment.
[. . .]
H4-RP4 got some surprising visitors midway through the Inquest: a couple miners who'd apparently survived on the plague-stricken mining platform and somehow crossed to the citadel.


That's a 'relatively controlled environment'? People being able to get out means people being able to get in. That's not a controlled environment by any measure.

Quote:

Duration survivors can be detained under quarantine: indefinite (but I'm really hoping circumstances and data align in a way that lets me go home soon).


Unless they just mysteriously somehow manage to leave and go to a different space station in the system despite massive levels of surveillance all over the outside of both stations, right? Not exactly inspiring confidence in the 'indefinite quarantine' possibilities here.

Quote:

(Also, the expected death toll of "trillions" was assuming further quarantine failures and additional spread, I think, probably-- the stuff's infamous for breaking containment, so, they might have been assuming it would eventually do exactly that.)


Not for nothing, but hasn't conjecture gotten you into enough trouble here?
Aldrith Shutaq
Atash e Sarum Vanguard
#451 - 2017-04-10 23:25:21 UTC
Leave it to the Minmatar to find something to complain about when things go better than expected.

That said, I believe it is within the realm of reason to assume the application of the cure will be done in a way that would prevent further outbreaks. The most important work to be done now is to find out how and why this weaponized strain was made and dispersed.

Aldrith Ter'neth Shutaq Newelle

Fleet Captain of the Praetoria Imperialis Excubitoris

Divine Commodore of the 24th Imperial Crusade

Lord Consort of Lady Mitara Newelle, Champion of House Sarum and Holder of Damnidios Para'nashu

Aria Jenneth
Societas Imperialis Sceptri Coronaeque
Khimi Harar
#452 - 2017-04-10 23:30:30 UTC  |  Edited by: Aria Jenneth
So, uh, Arrendis?

We're talking about a pathogen that likes to crack containment and make first the whole lab, then the whole station, then ... well, basically everything connected by atmosphere or bulkheads into a hot lab.

How do you plan on keeping cure tests in a controlled environment, assuming that solid testing also involves playing with the pathogen to create infections? I'm genuinely curious how that would work.

Let us all die, then get a bunch of drones to run a lab among the corpses? I think that's kind of how the Caldari have been studying The Pit. Only, as noted, it's a massive, ultra-deadly security hazard, and if you're unwilling to use an untested cure that means the pathogen's still fully effective as a weapon. It's also going to be hard to run human tests in a tightly-controlled environment unless you're doing experiments that would make a Blood Raider cringe.

(Okay, maybe not literally. Most of those seem to have pretty strong stomachs.)

I'm pretty much sure none of us who were infected particularly minds being subjects in even a non-ideal human trial. 'Cause, you know, alternative: death.
Aria Jenneth
Societas Imperialis Sceptri Coronaeque
Khimi Harar
#453 - 2017-04-10 23:45:31 UTC
Arrendis wrote:
Aria Jenneth wrote:

Quarantine zones: relatively controlled environment.
[. . .]
H4-RP4 got some surprising visitors midway through the Inquest: a couple miners who'd apparently survived on the plague-stricken mining platform and somehow crossed to the citadel.


That's a 'relatively controlled environment'? People being able to get out means people being able to get in. That's not a controlled environment by any measure.

Quote:

Duration survivors can be detained under quarantine: indefinite (but I'm really hoping circumstances and data align in a way that lets me go home soon).


Unless they just mysteriously somehow manage to leave and go to a different space station in the system despite massive levels of surveillance all over the outside of both stations, right? Not exactly inspiring confidence in the 'indefinite quarantine' possibilities here.


They're neighbors. As in, not in a distant way; the mining platform's kind of right there. I can look out half the windows and see it, without any magnification needed. After H4 declared a lockdown, I kinda think the security cordon started treating the two as one single zone. Traveling from one to the other is basically a matter of getting out an airlock in a space suit and pushing off in the right direction, and even easier with a grappling rig and/or jet pack.

Actually, getting to H4-RP4 from the mining platform, it'd be hard to miss. The main trick would be finding a way inside before your air ran out.

Quote:
Quote:
(Also, the expected death toll of "trillions" was assuming further quarantine failures and additional spread, I think, probably-- the stuff's infamous for breaking containment, so, they might have been assuming it would eventually do exactly that.)


Not for nothing, but hasn't conjecture gotten you into enough trouble here?


Conjecture's fun, though! And sometimes pretty useful.

It's just maybe a little important to remember that that's what you're doing, and (I guess, in my case) communicate it clearly.
Arrendis
TK Corp
#454 - 2017-04-10 23:46:52 UTC
Aria Jenneth wrote:

We're talking about a pathogen that likes to crack containment and make first the whole lab, then the whole station, then ... well, basically everything connected by atmosphere or bulkheads into a hot lab.


Yes, I know. That only makes it more important to keep appropriate controls on the testing labs for any treatment. The treatment's been effectively tested for two days. What if the protection lapses after six months? What if the Kyonoke virus isn't completely gone, just reduced to 'impossible to detect' levels, and in eighteen months, the protection's done and the virus comes surging back?

Literally, Aria, everything you have said about 'controlled environment', miners just showing up, having left the mining platform without anyone spotting them (and who's to say others didn't, too?)... none of this supports your case. All of this just screams 'this is not being subjected to proper safeguards' and 'it is more important than normal that this stuff is handled extremely carefully'.

I honestly do not know how anyone is reading this and thinking 'yeah, this stuff gets out and runs wild if you're even a little bit sloppy, so we don't need to subject any treatment to rigorous scrutiny and extremely secure environments'.

And no, it's not hard to run human testing in a tightly-controlled environment. Step 1: establish your tightly-controlled environement, including clean-room protocols for human habitation. Step 2: Introduce human test subjects to said environment. Step 3: Watch them carefully to make sure they don't do anything to breach the environment. Kind of exactly like you do with every other species of test subject.
Arrendis
TK Corp
#455 - 2017-04-10 23:49:24 UTC
Aria Jenneth wrote:

They're neighbors. As in, not in a distant way; the mining platform's kind of right there. I can look out half the windows and see it, without any magnification needed. After H4 declared a lockdown, I kinda think the security cordon started treating the two as one single zone. Traveling from one to the other is basically a matter of getting out an airlock in a space suit and pushing off in the right direction, and even easier with a grappling rig and/or jet pack.

Actually, getting to H4-RP4 from the mining platform, it'd be hard to miss. The main trick would be finding a way inside before your air ran out.


And yet, they did it. Again: you are not helping the case that rigorous safety and security procedures are being maintained.
Ayallah
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#456 - 2017-04-11 00:02:39 UTC
The crew of The Shrike was overjoyed when they heard a cure was developed.

But I suspect these next few days of quarantine while they wait for the cure to be distributed around New Eden will seem much slower.

Goddess of the IGS

As strength goes.

Aria Jenneth
Societas Imperialis Sceptri Coronaeque
Khimi Harar
#457 - 2017-04-11 00:06:32 UTC  |  Edited by: Aria Jenneth
Arrendis wrote:
Aria Jenneth wrote:

They're neighbors. As in, not in a distant way; the mining platform's kind of right there. I can look out half the windows and see it, without any magnification needed. After H4 declared a lockdown, I kinda think the security cordon started treating the two as one single zone. Traveling from one to the other is basically a matter of getting out an airlock in a space suit and pushing off in the right direction, and even easier with a grappling rig and/or jet pack.

Actually, getting to H4-RP4 from the mining platform, it'd be hard to miss. The main trick would be finding a way inside before your air ran out.


And yet, they did it. Again: you are not helping the case that rigorous safety and security procedures are being maintained.


I think I'm more making the case that full trials (especially since you seem to want 50 years) are themselves impractical and/or unethical in the context of an ongoing plague crisis.

"Rigorous safety and security procedures" are great when you've got time. It's not clear that we did, or do.

You do have a point about the possibility of resurgent plague, though.

Hm.

Edit:

OH! One nifty thing we found out: it's now possible to scan for the plague, given a specially-adjusted scanner. It doesn't detect infection during its incubation period, but it picks it up in a sick person really well and can also pick up contamination in the environment. (I don't know whether it would catch a single isolated speck.)

One really disturbing thing: our clonejacking, plague-spreading, researcher-murdering saboteur had a mark on the back of his hand, a triangle, etched in infection. I was about two meters away when they caught him; the scan turned it up plainly. I've been wondering what that was.
James Syagrius
Luminaire Sovereign Solutions
#458 - 2017-04-11 00:11:38 UTC
Makoto Priano wrote:
Personally, I can't wait to see what surfaces when audits begin of FIO and Poteque records.
And you were doing so well..
Arrendis
TK Corp
#459 - 2017-04-11 00:19:49 UTC
Aria Jenneth wrote:

I think I'm more making the case that full trials (especially since you seem to want 50 years) are themselves impractical and/or unethical in the context of an ongoing plague crisis.

"Rigorous safety and security procedures" are great when you've got time. It's not clear that we did, or do.

You do have a point about the possibility of resurgent plague, though.

Hm.


That's the point. That's why long-term testing and observation is needed. And yes, if there is no other other choice for full-containment, those people were assumed dead the moment the quarantine zone went up. You cannot rush this. You cannot ever say 'we don't have time to do this right' because doing it wrong can make things worse. Does it guarantee things will go wrong? No, of course not. You might get lucky and everything's fine. I hope to every heaven humanity has ever believed in that we get lucky.

But if we get unlucky, then the very nature of what we're dealing with here means that a)the fallout will be worse, b)it will be harder to contain, c)there's going to be a huge lag-time just figuring out that 0410 is the problem because nobody know what the side-effects are, during which, the new crisis will be getting worse, and 0410 will be continuing to be spread and sold all over the cluster.

What is the acceptable risk profile for that? What are the 'acceptable' odds? What percent chance is 'ok' to risk people going on with their lives, resuming travel, and spending six months as carriers, infecting people with dormant Kyonoke wherever they go, only to have it all explode at once? Give me a number that you think is an ok chance to take in order to avoid six to eighteen months of rigorous testing. Not even talking about the multiple-decades of testing that a self-replicating nanovirus would reasonably require, because I'm really hoping this isn't that, but is rather something more conventional.

Eighteen months of research on test subjects before field testing. Give me the percent chance of trillions of deaths that you think is too low to warrant that level of caution.
Oland Jan
Doomheim
#460 - 2017-04-11 00:37:45 UTC  |  Edited by: Oland Jan
Makoto Priano wrote:
Oland Jan wrote:
Sorry but I don't follow, who exactly are you blaming?

Essentially, that two groups were involved. One appears to be an extremist nationalist cell, possibly Dragonaur-related. The other is some sort of intelligence apparatus. Currently-available intel nods suggestively at possibly off-reservation FIO operatives trying to cover up an attempt to research the Kyonoke pathogen, but is by no means decisive.
If my suppositions are accurate, both the State and Federation have some housecleaning to do.
Thank you for the clarification.
Makoto Priano wrote:
Personally, I can't wait to see what surfaces when audits begin of FIO and Poteque records.

TomHorn wrote:
Makoto Priano wrote:
Mr. Horn, believe me when I say this. We want whomever is responsible brought to justice, and subjected to the full recourse of the law. It's entirely possible my suspicions are inaccurate. But if they aren't inaccurate? Those grandstanding Federal senators are going to have a very prominent place on the stage during some phenomenal hearings.

I believe you Priano-Hanni , lets hope whatever is in them FIO reports , brings down Roden and Blaque at last..
Ms. Priano, I respect your efforts, but some of your statements are troubling. So, you naturally assume it's the Federation is at fault yet the State is not? Whose audits within the State will you be eager to see? Perhaps your own organization? I regret to say that the earlier allegations of bias leveled by some, towards some seem to be proving out.