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[Kyonoke] Contagion Tracking, Containment, Planning

Author
Lasairiona Raske
Itsukame-Zainou Hyperspatial Inquiries Ltd.
Arataka Research Consortium
#381 - 2017-04-10 10:40:25 UTC
Aria, and all the others who were present, can I just say how much your work has been appreciated? Thank you for all your efforts. ♥

Are you a devil or an angel

Sent here from heaven or from hell?

Sweet temptress, I'm wrapped in your tangles

Can't find my way out of your spell

Arrendis
TK Corp
#382 - 2017-04-10 12:18:03 UTC
Elmund Egivand wrote:
In other words, you would like to peruse their publications, documentations and technical data sheets, especially those pertaining to safety tests?


I'd also like to see a responsible period of testing and observation to provide a reasonable level of assurance that these things won't develop a replication glitch that leads to disastrous side-effects.

Aria Jenneth wrote:
Ms. Culome, I'm too tired to argue.

My guess at the nanite-based nature of the cure is just that: a guess


In other words, you offered up completely unfounded speculation as on-site information, and waited two days to clear that up? I mean, it's not like even my original objections stated that the persistent nanomachines angle was a massive red flag.

Of course, there's very little else that could function like this—a normal vaccine won't help those already infected, and whatever drug treatments would constitute a 'cure' would be purged from the bloodstream... unless there were, I dunno, nanomachinery in there churning it out, which gets us right back to where we are...

Quote:

(Where in all the worlds did you get the impression either that I was somehow bound to respect the democratic process or that I "corrupted" it? It wasn't exactly one vote a head to begin with, and I didn't think there was anything unusual about people involved in this kind of politics forming voting blocs? Are you just kind of picking anything in reach to beat me over the head with right now?)


It was, as I'm pretty sure my statement made clear, a reference to your earlier insistence that because voting was involved, the Gallente Federation's Senate represented a form of authority that the people can and should implicitly trust.

Quote:

Can you maybe stop yelling? (I know you probably think you're not, but I say, like, one thing, and I get back a doctoral thesis on how wrong I am based on something I once said I thought might be the case.)


You say something utterly irresponsible and dismissive of the long-term threat that incautious introduction of a potential nanoplague after extremely limited testing poses, and then don't like having that threat laid out in the kind of detail that seems necessary to make you understand why what you're saying is, frankly, monstrous on a scale I can't even apply to the Day of Darkness. Maybe... don't make the monstrous statement in the first place?
Makoto Priano
Kirkinen-Arataka Transhuman Zenith Consulting Ltd.
Arataka Research Consortium
#383 - 2017-04-10 12:35:40 UTC  |  Edited by: Makoto Priano
The weaponization study, on review, seems to be studying spread of the Kyonoke pathogen among the population of Arcurio via various systems, most notably the transit system's air processing. Some elements were verified through discussion by Che Biko, including probable spread rates through his Pestilence/Resistance simulator project.

Itsukame-Zainou Hyperspatial Inquiries: exploring the edge of the known, advancing the state of the art. Would you like to know more?

Arrendis
TK Corp
#384 - 2017-04-10 12:40:24 UTC
Jev North wrote:
Mm. Could it be she's basically asking the wrong people.


I'm asking the people who were there, who were involved, and who have, of their own volition, offered up information as to the nature of the plaguecure. That doesn't make this my only line of inquiry, mind you, and if I get more reliable information from people who aren't, it seems, just offering up wild speculation, I will most certainly make that information available.
Loai Qerl
Societas Imperialis Sceptri Coronaeque
Khimi Harar
#385 - 2017-04-10 12:40:26 UTC  |  Edited by: Loai Qerl
The data is going to be made public. We did sort of make that absolutely explicit, with amendments to ensure overview from specialists outside the research corp that developed the treatment, as part of the proceedings. But I think that has been addressed already, so.

Given the state of emergency, both general and immediate, and the very real potential for loss of all human life in the cluster, I am quite serious that any successful treatment is welcome. No matter how mysterious or insidious or what-have-you, honestly. Perhaps I was caught up in the moment a bit considering that the empires had already been authorized to sterilize--or NOT sterilize--any sites as they saw fit at the end of the proceedings. I admit that I very specifically did not want my organs to fall out and my skin to crack and slough off. We're human, no? Baseliners with ports. It's not so hard to understand the dread of a grim end like that for oneself and everybody one has ever met, even if Paradise awaits.

The knock-on results of the treatment, whatever they may be, are things that we now have leisure to face. When the plague was still a guaranteed death to millions, billions, trillions, we did not have that leisure. I have no regrets about how the matter was handled and am proud to be innoculated.
Arrendis
TK Corp
#386 - 2017-04-10 13:29:47 UTC  |  Edited by: Arrendis
Loai Qerl wrote:

Given the state of emergency, both general and immediate, and the very real potential for loss of all human life in the cluster,

[. . .]

The knock-on results of the treatment, whatever they may be, are things that we now have leisure to face. When the plague was still a guaranteed death to millions, billions, trillions, we did not have that leisure. I have no regrets about how the matter was handled and am proud to be innoculated.


A) Four sites, under quarantine and travel restrictions. Five, if you count the Keepstar, also quarantined. That is not an immediate threat against all human life in the cluster. It's not even close. I mean, I really do hate to sound callous here, because I'm not at all immune to the plight of those in the quarantine zones, but a few hundred million deaths in already-contained outbreaks is not 'the very real potential for loss of all human life in the cluster'. Even if it were a billion lives, that's less than 0.001% of the Amarr Empire alone.

The problem with releasing the treatment now, after such limited testing, is pretty simple: How long have we known about Kyonoke? How long has it taken to get this far in developing a treatment?

If there is some catastrophic 'knock-on' (and wow, what a dismissive and perjorative term there) effect from this, how widespread will it be? I mean, let's remove the 'people will travel to/from these places after receiving treatment' issue. New Eden is run by the profit motive. There's a vaccine/cure for the most terrifying plague ever known to man.

Anyone wanna place odds this won't be the go-to gift for the holiday season this year? No matter which holiday you pick? People will be lining up for this thing in droves. They'll be trying to get it for their kids to keep them safe. They will likely be screaming in the streets if they can't get it, and someone near them has a cold.

So...

Q: How wide-spread will the side-effects be?
A: We don't know.

Q: How debilitating will the side-effects be?
A: We don't know.

Q: How much lead-time will we have from the first test subjects displaying side-effects to their expression in the general public?
A: ABOUT AS LONG AS THE TESTING REGIME RUNS BEFORE GENERAL RELEASE.

Q: So what's the worst-case scenario, since, you know, 'hope for the best, plan for the worst'?
A: 3 days.

Q: What are the odds a cure for the cure can be developed in that window?
A: Pretty damned small, so we're back to hoping for the best.

Q: Is a longer testing period pretty much guaranteed to answer those questions?
A: Yes.

Q: Are we sure there will be side-effects?
A: There is no medical treatment in the history of man that hasn't had them. Anti-biotics are poisons, Aspirin taken for headaches thins the blood and can inhibit clotting. Caffeine spikes blood pressure, heart-rate, and stresses the kidneys. There will be side-effects.
Arrendis
TK Corp
#387 - 2017-04-10 13:35:10 UTC
Loai Qerl wrote:
The data is going to be made public. We did sort of make that absolutely explicit, with amendments to ensure overview from specialists outside the research corp that developed the treatment, as part of the proceedings.


And just to respond to this canard: did you establish a binding window in which the data had to be made public, relative to the distribution of the cure itself? Because as we've both pointed out, the demand for one will be exponentially higher than the demand for the other, and 'yeah, don't worry, we're getting all the data together' can eat up a lot of time when releasing it isn't a pre-requisite to making money off of it.
Loai Qerl
Societas Imperialis Sceptri Coronaeque
Khimi Harar
#388 - 2017-04-10 13:47:04 UTC
You aren't being callous, really, but do consider that my welcoming of this treatment is based on the fact that there was no guarantee of sterilization of any of the sites, AND!

This is important.

The fact that it was being weaponized. Factually. We still don't know exactly where the stocks are that were used to induce this outbreak in the first place, and presumably they still exist. In this very forum, right here, attempts were being made with varying credibility to foster Kyonoke's spread. YES, it was and is a real threat to all human life.

So.

And no, for the record, a specific date for disclosure was not specified other than "immediate".
Arrendis
TK Corp
#389 - 2017-04-10 14:02:25 UTC
Loai Qerl wrote:
The fact that it was being weaponized. Factually.


Many plagues have been weaponized. Delivery on a wide enough scale to wipe out all human life is... incredibly unlikely. Anoikis, if nowhere else, would largely remain intact, if only because the plague becomes so virulent and destructive so quickly that some of the people in Anoikis would be completely out of touch while the apocalypse raged.

That's less likely with this, both because of the immediate demand that will arise, and the very nature of 'long-term' in those side-effects. The fact that it might take generations for everyone to be infected with the 'cure' is exactly what makes it so pervasive: because if that's how it works, then it will last through those generations.

If this was a straightfoward vaccine, I'd be a lot less concerned. If it was just a cure, I'd be a lot less concerned. Something that claims to do what every other treatment in medical history can't, ie: be both a persistent preventative and an effective counter-agent for the already-afflicted?

Yeah, that's pretty demanding that it be 100% completely understood before you let it out of the bottle, because good luck getting it back in.
Loai Qerl
Societas Imperialis Sceptri Coronaeque
Khimi Harar
#390 - 2017-04-10 14:10:31 UTC
Oh for the love of all the rotted damn worlds.

It is your job to fuss where other people shrug and say "Oh, it isn't my job to fuss about that". That is right and proper. One is glad to share a cluster with this fuss, and wholly delighted one doesn't share a station with it. One is going to go put some jam in some yoghurt and reflect on this multifoliate bloom of good fortune.
Arrendis
TK Corp
#391 - 2017-04-10 14:27:34 UTC
Actually, yes, it is at least part of my job to look at situations and attempt to see what the long-term problems that can arise from them are. But please, do feel free to keep being snide about it.
Aria Jenneth
Societas Imperialis Sceptri Coronaeque
Khimi Harar
#392 - 2017-04-10 14:45:32 UTC  |  Edited by: Aria Jenneth
Thanks, Ms. Raske.


Arrendis wrote:
In other words, you offered up completely unfounded speculation as on-site information, and waited two days to clear that up? I mean, it's not like even my original objections stated that the persistent nanomachines angle was a massive red flag.

Of course, there's very little else that could function like this—a normal vaccine won't help those already infected, and whatever drug treatments would constitute a 'cure' would be purged from the bloodstream... unless there were, I dunno, nanomachinery in there churning it out, which gets us right back to where we are...


I'm rarely certain of anything. Maybe my tendency to express things in tentative terms can be troublesome when I really do mean I think something's the case.

But yes, the guess was based on exactly that kind of analysis.

Quote:
It was, as I'm pretty sure my statement made clear, a reference to your earlier insistence that because voting was involved, the Gallente Federation's Senate represented a form of authority that the people can and should implicitly trust.


I'm not sure when I made such a statement. As far as I can remember, democracy is a form of government of which I'm particularly skeptical precisely because it places power in the hands of the worst-informed and least-qualified.

I'm Caldari, Ms. Culome. More particularly, I'm culturally Achura. We're probably the world's strangest theocracy: rule of the remains of a once-mighty (in its own one-planet context) feudal empire by its monks, supported by scholars from other fields.

Those are the people I tend to trust to lead: thinkers. That's presumably how I was brought up, though of course I can't remember; just, my head's full of explicit or implicit arguments in favor of this. The Caldari generally trust their Executive caste in similar ways, and for similar reasons.

I trust people who, by their very position, are best-situated to see matters clearly. To me the greatest mystery of the Federation is how it's survived centuries of what to me looks a lot like rule-by-ignorant-mob.

Quote:
You say something utterly irresponsible and dismissive of the long-term threat that incautious introduction of a potential nanoplague after extremely limited testing poses, and then don't like having that threat laid out in the kind of detail that seems necessary to make you understand why what you're saying is, frankly, monstrous on a scale I can't even apply to the Day of Darkness. Maybe... don't make the monstrous statement in the first place?


... I'm getting tired of having things I say to try to explain things concisely and tentatively taken as though I'd (1) stated them without ambiguity and (2) submitted them for review at some scientific journal or something. We're waiting for more information, too. I didn't think that was so unclear.

AND using those to make a stream of unflattering judgments about me. Have you been taking lessons from Miz or something? You seem to be getting along really well lately.

I'm not a very principled person to begin with; there's not much I really believe in. A lot of positions I take are just how things look to me at the moment, or reflexes I have, left over from before. So, I guess, please feel free to consider me a horrible irresponsible person if that's what you really think I am. From certain points of view, you're definitely correct.

Think what you want. I don't ... care. I guess.

Right now ... I thought I'd come to terms with death, that it wasn't something I was really afraid of anymore. Staring it in the eye for an extended period, having that long to see it coming, and then never quite arrive.... It's not even as though it was very last-minute, but, I'm not used to having an extended period to consider how a timeline I'm currently experiencing is completely unique to my current body and that experience is shortly going to end. Probably horribly. Only ... it never did.

I know you kind of like chewing on people, Ms. Culome. Usually I kind of enjoy discussing stuff, but right now I'm ... I don't think I'm up to it. It's not like what happens now is in my control in any real way. I'm in quarantine. A prisoner, again, and my head's kind of all sideways.

Just for now, I'd be grateful if you could please find another sparring partner.
Morgana Tsukiyo
Samsara Dynamics
#393 - 2017-04-10 14:57:51 UTC
How are the spirits inside the Keepstar? Are the non privilleged habitants happy with the cure?

Join Project Transcendence.

Applied technology for the enhancement of human experience.

Skyweir Kinnison
Doomheim
#394 - 2017-04-10 15:03:29 UTC
I'm waiting for the eccentric medic who will claim this vaccine causes autism in capsuleers. Because there will be a correlation.

Humanity has won its battle. Liberty now has a country.

Makoto Priano
Kirkinen-Arataka Transhuman Zenith Consulting Ltd.
Arataka Research Consortium
#395 - 2017-04-10 15:05:02 UTC
Morgana Tsukiyo wrote:
How are the spirits inside the Keepstar? Are the non privilleged habitants happy with the cure?


Well, there may have been drunken celebration after the conclusion of the formal Inquest, if that's any indication.

Itsukame-Zainou Hyperspatial Inquiries: exploring the edge of the known, advancing the state of the art. Would you like to know more?

Morgana Tsukiyo
Samsara Dynamics
#396 - 2017-04-10 15:12:06 UTC
Makoto Priano wrote:

Well, there may have been drunken celebration after the conclusion of the formal Inquest, if that's any indication.



I meant after the arrival of equipments. Everyone chill headed and all with the reclusion time ?

Join Project Transcendence.

Applied technology for the enhancement of human experience.

Makoto Priano
Kirkinen-Arataka Transhuman Zenith Consulting Ltd.
Arataka Research Consortium
#397 - 2017-04-10 15:15:12 UTC
Given the size of the Keepstar, I think the personnel won't suffer from any sort of cabin fever. Many of them are just glad to not be doomed.

Honestly, we'll have to see what results, but for now I'd say the initial elation after a sense of doom has resulted in a remarkable reprieve.

Itsukame-Zainou Hyperspatial Inquiries: exploring the edge of the known, advancing the state of the art. Would you like to know more?

Aria Jenneth
Societas Imperialis Sceptri Coronaeque
Khimi Harar
#398 - 2017-04-10 15:23:32 UTC
Morgana Tsukiyo wrote:
How are the spirits inside the Keepstar? Are the non privilleged habitants happy with the cure?


Right now people seem mostly pretty relieved; the festive mood hasn't really died down around here.

There's some concern about the whole situation, of course; just because we're not going to die immediately and there's hopefully relief on the way to other quarantine zones doesn't quite mean the crisis is over, and, also, we've just had a brush with a near-mythic plague whose full nature and characteristics aren't fully known. It's hard to say what the long-term effects are going to be, of either the pathogen or its cure.

I'm hoping to find out more about the cure, but, now that my role as a delegate's been exhausted information's gotten harder to come by. There were some indications at some point that the cure might have damaging neurological side-effects-- psychosis, that kind of thing, and not on the kind of extreme-term time frame Arrendis is talking about. I'm not clear on whether we ever found out for sure.

(My reference to the possibility that I might become violent wasn't me poking fun: it's an actual possibility.)

For now, there's a lot going on. I'm just kind of trying to stay out of the way.
Thomas en Gravonere
Amok.
Goonswarm Federation
#399 - 2017-04-10 17:01:34 UTC
In the end of the day, I am glad to see level heads persevere.

Apologies that I could not stay at the celebration long, but my attention was required elsewhere.
TomHorn
Horn Brothers Holdings Inc.
#400 - 2017-04-10 17:07:13 UTC  |  Edited by: TomHorn
You diseased and guinea pig Caldari capsuleers are no longer welcome in the State. You were warned about working with outside sources.

Look at you now, diseased and guinea pigs.

Ill petition the CEP to renounce your status as Caldari citizens , we admire what you have achieved, with your international friends , cure , good, but we don't your disease ridden bodies back in the State. Ill push for medal for you , how does the glory outcasts sound?

If you see them in the State , kill them , cause brain damage so they can't clone properly, burn'em. Its only way to protect State citizens.