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Maximum citadels in a system?

Author
Black Pedro
Mine.
#101 - 2017-01-26 10:38:27 UTC  |  Edited by: Black Pedro
Dracvlad wrote:
So my conclusion is that this thread is a baseless whine and any small time indy player should not bother because it will not stay up long enough to recoup the expenditure, so no limit in the number in a system should happen, especially as the content of wars around the trade hubs is actually interesting apart from the combat itself because they are so damn weak in hisec.

I am sorry to be so forceful, but I looked at this with the intent to build some my self and I just cannot see that it is worthwhile in any sense.
I am not sure why you conclude this thread is a "baseless whine" when the OP is correct in observing that player-owned Upwell structures are indeed accumulating. You can question whether this is a problem at all, or that the trend will continue, but not even a year into the structures, and with only two of the many planned structures released, they are everywhere and more appear each week.

But I do agree with you they make no economic sense for a solo or small-time industrial group to deploy. The cost of them requires a significant amount of industrial output to make a profit, and because of how many there are and the competition that that will produce, it appears that renting an EC out to the public will never come close to being a profitable endeavour. CCP probably should take a clue from the fact that the player set tax rates of their structures immediately trend towards 0% or 0.01%/0.1% (the smallest unit allowed by the UI) that their structures are too safe (or not worthwhile to attack) to support an actual competitive ecosystem. Of course, that doesn't mean they aren't valuable for large industrialist and industry groups who seem to be embracing them for all their advantages over POSes.

That said, if I was implementing such a complex system into an existing game I too would err on the side of too much safety so players actually start using them. I would implement all the structures, see how the players are using them, and then start tweaking them (as well as the NPC stations) to make it worthwhile for players to build them, rent them and their services to each other, and destroy them, and if I really was CCP Black Pedro, implement a bunch of region/constellation/system-limited bonuses that could be fit to the structures for players to fight over. I don't see too much downside if that means over the next year they keep accumulating before some balance changes are made after all the structures are implemented, and we have data on how they perform, that makes it more worthwhile to shoot them and then we can have a grand old party burning all the undefended ones to the ground.

But yes, I too did the math and it makes no sense for me to deploy an EC to do the scale of industry I do these days. That is, of course, intended by CCP and a good thing for the game that there is not a 'one size fits all' solution (like the current highsec industry POSes). I can still build things in NPC stations or other people's ECs, and if I ever want to get serious about industry again there is now a motivation for me to band together with others and put something on the line to gain efficiencies. I like how building things now is again a bit of a challenge and there are multiple solutions depending on how you want to play the game, but cooperative and competitive play is again incentivized. Plus, there are always players who are bad at math, overestimate their ability to defend structures, or have some compulsion to have a space home that they will let me use for free or just peanuts while taking all the risk, and who will serve as targets if I am looking to create some content (although I just wish there was more reasons to do so).

Win-win-win it all is.
Salvos Rhoska
#102 - 2017-01-26 11:24:02 UTC  |  Edited by: Salvos Rhoska
1) We agree that Citadels/EC are proliferating in HS.

2) It has been demonstrated that (very) conservative estimates are 1% attrition of totality, per month.

3) It has been demonstrated a substantial portion of that occurs in specific systems.

4) We agree that 100% free and 100% safe Asset Safety is a problem, in EVE principle.

5) We agree that for most, its actually not fiscally worthwhile to place them.

6) We agree that destroying them is also largely fiscally not worthwhile for most.

7) We can deduce, that as rate of attrition is so low, and rate of demand so high, that prices will drop, resulting in even more of them being placed.

8) We can agree that the nigh omnipresence of NPC stations in HS creates a problem in terms of comparative risk for player structures, and that 100% free and 100 safe Asset Safety nominally is necessary to reconcile that.

9) We also, however agree, that player structures can and do earn more from their operation as well as have more control over it, than if residing in an NPC station.

10) I think most of us can agree, that there should be no systemic limitation of numbers of Citadels/EC in HS systems, and that they should instead be regulated by player action (ergo: destruction or cooperation).



Thus:

We can conclude, that the issue is in how to incentive destruction and/or cooperation regarding Citadels/EC.

Whether by changing Asst Safety parameters, structure/rig stats, increased rewards for destruction/cooperation etc.
Ideally so the incentive for destruction, and the incentive for Corps to cooperate in operating off the same structure, feed into each other, particularly as conflict drivers and as emergent gameplay, (to coin a new term) as COOPERATION drivers.
Dracvlad
Taishi Combine
Astral Alliance
#103 - 2017-01-26 11:42:48 UTC  |  Edited by: Dracvlad
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
1) We agree that Citadels/EC are proliferating in HS.

2) It has been demonstrated that (very) conservative estimates are 1% attrition of totality, per month.

3) It has been demonstrated a substantial portion of that occurs in specific systems.

4) We agree that 100% free and 100% safe Asset Safety is a problem, in EVE principle.

5) We agree that for most, its actually not fiscally worthwhile to place them.

6) We agree, largely, that destroying them is also largely fiscally not worthwhile for most.

7) We can deduce, that as rate of attrition is so low, and rate of demand so high, that prices will drop, resulting in even more of them being placed.

8) We can agree that the nigh omnipresence of NPC stations in HS creates a problem in terms of comparative risk for player structures, and that 100% free and 100 safe Asset Safety nominally is necessary to reconcile that.

9) We also, however agree, that player structures can and do earn more from their operation as well as have more control over it, than if residing in an NPC station.

10) I think most of us can agree, that there should be no systemic limitation of numbers of Citadels/EC in HS systems, and that they should be regulated by player action (ergo: destruction or cooperation).


in regards to 1) to 3) and 5) I think it is too early to make a proper assessment, I am seeing more people prepared to attack them, I am noticing Raitaru's dying more in hisec then anywhere else. 6) I think that attacking a fully fit Citadel or EC is worthwhile.

4) I agree in principle, but I understand and accept CCP's reasons

7) I disagree, the cost of fully setup ones in relation to their survivability especially the Raitaru is actually quite expensive and I think the people who went into this have already realised this as I am starting to see fully researched BPO's coming out on contracts. I expect that the prices will stay high because the raw materials especially the rigs are an issue. P4 is staying static but I notice Salvage material keep going upwards in price, I think the demand is more related to Fortizars and Keepstars which make no sense in hisec apart from piggy backing on market hubs.

8) Agreed

9) Only if you own it, using another persons one is very risky aspecially with a long job.

10) Totally agree.

EDIT: I am hoping that these things will push hisec players to band together, this is something that all of us hope to see as this is where the conflict drivers and fun combat will come from. And this factor is also why calling for their defences to be increased is incorrect because it depends on people having real corps in hisec. So I have to slap myself on the wrist for my comments about their defences because I want to see more meaningful entities in hisec and these things hopefully willl drive that.

EDIT2: Black Pedro, yes I did go too far with calling it a baseless whine, that is too strong, I do however feel that it is too early to make such a judgement, good post by the way.

When the going gets tough the Gankers get their CSM rep to change mechanics in their favour.

Blocked: Teckos Pech, Sonya Corvinus, baltec1, Shae Tadaruwa, Wander Prian, Daichi Yamato, Jonah Gravenstein, Merin Ryskin, Linus Gorp

Dracvlad
Taishi Combine
Astral Alliance
#104 - 2017-01-26 14:14:28 UTC  |  Edited by: Dracvlad
So, I decided to do some checking, I chose a region which does not have a market Hub, but is close to one, I decided not to check every single system but a sample.

42 Systems were checked warping gate to gate D-scanning for hidden ones on the warp path, so I would miss those not open to the public which are nicely off the grid so to speak.

I found 84 structures in space and picked up on 9 hidden, an average of two structures per system.

54 were Astrahus, 26 Raitaru, 3 Fortizars and to my immense surprise one Azbel. Bearing in mind the number of moons in each system I do not think this is too high a number. I should also point out that I checked one of these systems for POS's and I found not a single online POS in it, but about 12 offline ones including two that had not been plundered, yet...

This is not a region near Jita, so that is one aspect that people should bear in mind, but it is close to Amarr.

My conclusion from this which is only a small sample is that it looks fine, but I note that I had not done this near Jita which may have more, but I would also think more risk of attack. I have noticed a couple of groups starting to attack Raitaru's and I have noted Khanid as being one such region with 3 recent Raitaru killmails by the same group.

Something to note, on 14th January six Raitaru were destroyed and every one was in hisec.

This is very early days in my opinion.

When the going gets tough the Gankers get their CSM rep to change mechanics in their favour.

Blocked: Teckos Pech, Sonya Corvinus, baltec1, Shae Tadaruwa, Wander Prian, Daichi Yamato, Jonah Gravenstein, Merin Ryskin, Linus Gorp

Salvos Rhoska
#105 - 2017-01-26 14:53:44 UTC  |  Edited by: Salvos Rhoska
I think both camps can largely agree, that HS Citadels/ECs are not facilitating the kind of conflict/cooperation drivers that they could.

Furthermore, I think both camps agree that it is largely not worthwhile for most players to either place them or destroy them.

Yet HS Citadels/ECs continue to proliferate, vs a conservative estimate of 1% attrition across EVE, a substantial portion of which is in specific systems.

Ironically, its exactly in HS, with its peculiar mechanics, that such conflict/cooperation drivers would be needed most.
But its also in HS, due to those same peculiarities, that it is most difficult to implement an equitable solution.



Drac has presented that his observation from the market, is that players are beginning to realize that it is not worthwhile to place the cheaper stuctures, and that this will plateau the market, and not extend into ever increasing rates of these structures as a result of price dropping.

I do not dispute that observation, as I cba to research a rebuttal, and none has been offered by anyone else.
Though market analysis since the inception of these structures would be peripherally informative, we currently have no way to accurately count the actual extent of their proliferation as anchored structures in HS. (Unless some madman flies through every HS system counting them).

Hopefully, he is correct.
This, because the larger and more expensive the structure, the more conflict/cooperation it necessitates, per unit.
These larger, more expensive structures, thus provide more incentive for conflict/cooperative content, as localised drivers.



As I concluded in my previous post, the underlying issue, is in what incentives there are for conflict or cooperation as involved with these structures.

Thus, it is rational to investigate the different incentives of aggressors, and defenders, as specific to HS peculiar space.

Aggressor:
-To cause loss to the target, as the cost of the structure and its structure specific equipment.
-To loot part of the value of that structure and its structure specific equipment.
-To destroy Jump Clones located there (which however can be evacuated during invulnerability windows).
-To abort current player industry processes, and apparently to cause assets involved in those to drop.
-To remove a structure competing on rates, with your own, so as to consolidate the market to use yours.
-For teh lols and tears.

Defender:
-To have your own home.
-To have control of access, trade rates, industry efficiency rates, and onsite storage to one or more of these.
-To benefit from the above by use by others (or your own corp members), including HQ rent and (apparently) sidestepping Jump Clone cool-down. (And tethering, arguably not so useful, but peculiar to these structures)
-The above as a distinction from operating out of a NPC station, where you do not control or benefit from the above.
-To benefit from 100% free and 100% safe Asset Safety.
-The above being no different than in an NPC station, except for its cost if destroyed to its owners, jump clones if not evacuated, and aborting/drop of current industry processes.



My conclusion from the above, when boiled down, is:
-Aggressors benefit from destroying the structure, if the value of result of that action is worth the effort.
-Defenders benefit from the structure, if their value exceed costs of placing, maintaining its functions and defending it.

Boiling that down even further, the dividing line between value to the aggressor, and value to the defender, as incentive, is ultimately vested in Asset Safety.

As long as Asset Safety is 100% free, and 100% safe:
-Owning defenders stand to lose only the structure and related equipment. Occupants stand only to lose Jump clones (which can be withdrawn), and industry processes and involved materials (which can be cancelled).
-Aggressors stand only to gain the value of dropped structure specific equipment, and a loss of that to an opponent.

As evidenced by a 1% attrition rate per month against a proliferation of HS Citadels/EC, this means the value of destroying them, is less than the value of building them.

This is deleterious, because if the Citadels/EC are not worth destroying, that also means there is no impetus for cooperation to defend them. Thus Citadels/EC do not comprise a conflict OR cooperation driver in HS.

I maintain, that HS especially needs an adjustment to Asset Safety, such that it is atleast 5% to recover stored assets.
This would also mean, practically, that players that wish to avoid that 5% recovery cost, must move their assets out.
Admittedly, this is a trivial matter on an NPC corp alt, but atleast it requires effort and time.



TLDR: To facilitate risk/cost vs profit, for both aggressor and defender, in HS Citadels/ECs, and to facilitate them as conflict/cooperation drivers, the 100% free and 100% safe Asset safety must be mitigated.

In the face of Citadel/EC proliferation vs a conservative 1% estimate of attrition across 1090 systems per month, it is clear that the system is not providing sufficient incentive for conflict, and as a result, cooperation to counteract it.

100% free and 100% safe Asset safety must remain exclusive to NPC stations, in HS in particular.
It should NOT be extended to player structures, whom have control of and profit from their own structures.
HS needs conflict drivers, and by extension, cooperation drivers.

The 100% free and 100% safe Asset safety system provides neither, as evidenced by 1% attrition vs an increasing proliferation of these structures., even though NP stations exist alongside.

100% free/safe Asset Safety is systemically impairing the function and potential of Citadels/EC as HS conflict/cooperation drivers.
Salvos Rhoska
#106 - 2017-01-26 16:42:46 UTC  |  Edited by: Salvos Rhoska
Dracvlad wrote:
Snip


Your report of Citadels/EC proliferation is supportive of the atleast 2 structure average per system premise.
In my own home constellation, however, the average is 3, across 7 systems, even though (or perhaps because) its off the beaten path. The Raitaru/Astrahus rate here is in rough proportion to your own observations across 42 systems.

However. measurements of proliferation is in this discussion weighed against measurements of destruction.

Having arduously looked through the killmail stats of each system, not one single Citadel/EC has been destroyed in this constellation.

HS Citadels/EC are being built and maintained at a rate that far outstrips the rate of their destruction.
As demonstrated before, we are talking about a 1% attrition rate per month, across 1090 systems, assuming 2 structures per system.

These clearly are not conflict drivers of any significance, nor cooperation drivers.
I dont even want to think about the NS implications, but they are beyond the scope of this thread.

Caveat: It could be argued that cooperation of defense of these structures exceeds aggressors capacity to take them out.
But heuristically, it is clear that the low rate of destruction is not due to overwhelming defense, but instead lack of incentive to aggress.

Asset Safety insures both the owners stored assets, and those of its occupants in HS.
Yes, they take the risk of aggression for the cost of the structure, but at a 1% attrition rate spread across HS, that is a 1:100 ratio, p,us most of that aggression occurring in contested systems of strategic value.

In HS, Citadels/EC do not constitute conflict/cooperation drivers for the overwhelming part.
Instead they comprise, to the aggressor, only the value of dropped station specific material, and loss of that to antagonist.
Whereas the structure owner, and occupants, have all their assets moved for free.

This system of Asset Safety, in HS, at current rates of attrition, means you dont need to worry about aggression.
You risk the structure at a 1:100 rate, across HS. Those are very favorable odds.
Frostys Virpio
State War Academy
Caldari State
#107 - 2017-01-26 20:01:10 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:

HS Citadels/EC are being built and maintained at a rate that far outstrips the rate of their destruction.
As demonstrated before, we are talking about a 1% attrition rate per month, across 1090 systems, assuming 2 structures per system.


DO you have the attrition rate of anything else in the game to put these numbers into perspective? You also have to take into account he fact that a higher installation base might trigger more destruction too. If there are 3k installed right now, more per day/week/months might get destroyed when there will be 6k. A 1% will still make the installed number plateau when the install rate flattens around 1%. Are we seeing a large increase in installation rate and can we expect it to continue to grow or will it slowdown as more stand in space? More data for CCP would be nice to form an opinion.
Dracvlad
Taishi Combine
Astral Alliance
#108 - 2017-01-26 20:40:59 UTC
The issue about destruction is that people have not yet realised that a fitted one has a nice value and as they become more aware of that fact we will see a change in attitude, I believe that this attitude change is in the process of starting.

When the going gets tough the Gankers get their CSM rep to change mechanics in their favour.

Blocked: Teckos Pech, Sonya Corvinus, baltec1, Shae Tadaruwa, Wander Prian, Daichi Yamato, Jonah Gravenstein, Merin Ryskin, Linus Gorp

Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat
Working Stiffs
#109 - 2017-01-27 00:03:10 UTC
Dracvlad wrote:
Stepping back on that a bit, I just cannot see that it is worth my while setting up one of these immensely easy to kill things with that amount of cost, and this is why you will not see an explosion of these things in hisec except near the main trading hubs and even then traders don't like the fact that they have their stuff impounded for a period of time, you ignore that issue too.

If they put on a long job with lots of materials and they get a war dec and the citadel destroyed all that material is lost, it does not drop either, CCP should change that part by the way...

The asset safety helps industrial players in the sense that the small amount of items in a Raitaru that they might use will be safe, big deal not, but I noticed that the items in Corporate hangers seemed to have dropped on a Raitaru in Perimeter, was that a bug or the fact that stuff does drop?

The same rules apply as always:
1. Don't be stupid.
2. Don't get people angry at you.
3. Expect that you will be stupid and get people angry at you.
4. Take steps to mitigate the risk to a level you can accept.

The biggest risk is whether the structure will complete its first repair cycle. This is just like on-lining a POS in hostile space, where all you can do is wait, and defend it, or take your chances and hope nobody notices.

As for Perimeter:
Exploit Notification – Generation Of Tech II BPOs From Destruction Of Citadels & Engineering Complexes
Dracvlad
Taishi Combine
Astral Alliance
#110 - 2017-01-27 08:36:34 UTC  |  Edited by: Dracvlad
Tau Cabalander wrote:
Dracvlad wrote:
Stepping back on that a bit, I just cannot see that it is worth my while setting up one of these immensely easy to kill things with that amount of cost, and this is why you will not see an explosion of these things in hisec except near the main trading hubs and even then traders don't like the fact that they have their stuff impounded for a period of time, you ignore that issue too.

If they put on a long job with lots of materials and they get a war dec and the citadel destroyed all that material is lost, it does not drop either, CCP should change that part by the way...

The asset safety helps industrial players in the sense that the small amount of items in a Raitaru that they might use will be safe, big deal not, but I noticed that the items in Corporate hangers seemed to have dropped on a Raitaru in Perimeter, was that a bug or the fact that stuff does drop?

The same rules apply as always:
1. Don't be stupid.
2. Don't get people angry at you.
3. Expect that you will be stupid and get people angry at you.
4. Take steps to mitigate the risk to a level you can accept.

The biggest risk is whether the structure will complete its first repair cycle. This is just like on-lining a POS in hostile space, where all you can do is wait, and defend it, or take your chances and hope nobody notices.

As for Perimeter:
Exploit Notification – Generation Of Tech II BPOs From Destruction Of Citadels & Engineering Complexes


That is the point of this, because before being clever in hisec was being small, insignificant and keeping under the radar, being fast on your feet, taking down POS's, not putting originals in the POS and so on. However the pulling down of the POS is no longer there as an option, so is it still clever to be small and apathetic?

Yes the biggest risk is that initial repair cycle, which is why putting in in an out of the way low traffic area is key for anyone who has got people angry, though I don't define getting people angry as being stupid unless you play totally to be under the radar in which case it would be stupid.... Cool

I am hoping that loose confederations could develop to help each other, perhaps a bit of a dream, but it would produce more engaging play...

When the going gets tough the Gankers get their CSM rep to change mechanics in their favour.

Blocked: Teckos Pech, Sonya Corvinus, baltec1, Shae Tadaruwa, Wander Prian, Daichi Yamato, Jonah Gravenstein, Merin Ryskin, Linus Gorp

Major Trant
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#111 - 2017-01-27 11:14:22 UTC
I don't think that the proliferating of Citadels is the real problem for most players, but the inability to manage them in one's overview.

At the moment we only have the option to add Citadels and/or ECs to the overview regardless of standings. When switched on, if you have docking rights, you see them system wide, otherwise only on grid.

What we need:

1. The ability to filter them based on standings.
2. The ability to filter them when ongrid seperately.
3. The ability to filter them when offgrid seperately.
4. An ongrid flag showing whether we have docking rights.
5. The ability to filter them based on available services.
Hir Miriel
Elves In Space
#112 - 2017-01-27 11:31:25 UTC
EVE is a safe game, always has been.

Your character isn't deleted if you stop paying.
Your skill points are safe.
People can't steal money from your account.
People can't kill your ship if you log off in the middle of nowhere and wait a minute.
NPC stations offer safe haven for ships and other assets.

Taking safety for citadels away, isn't going to make EVE a better game. Safety has always been part of the game.

While it's philosophically nice to have EVE be a pure game of letting everything always be risky, that someone could always take something from you, at any time, I'm not sure people want a game which is like real life.

I suspect people want some fantasy in their space ship game. Doing things they may never do in real life.

Like being a home owner.


~ ~~ Thinking inside Schrodinger's sandbox. ~~ ~

Salvos Rhoska
#113 - 2017-01-27 15:02:27 UTC  |  Edited by: Salvos Rhoska
Hir Miriel wrote:
I suspect people want some fantasy in their space ship game. Doing things they may never do in real life.

Like being a home owner.


... in a war zone.

The equivalent is your home coming under attack, and unless you defend it, it will be reduced to rubble.
That makes sense.
Asset Safety however means all the contents of your house are miraculously transported out for free.
That does not make sense.