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The Mutuality of Freighter Ganking

First post
Author
Violet Crumble
Weaponised Vegemite
Flying Dangerous
#161 - 2016-12-21 08:55:34 UTC  |  Edited by: Violet Crumble
Dracvlad wrote:
CREST data... ShockedRoll

EDIT:

I see you added that in to save face:

Save face of what? It's in your quote of my post. It was there from the start. The post you quoted is unedited. Nothing has been added nor removed from it.

Post your data.

Funtime Factory - We put the fun back in funtime

Dracvlad
Taishi Combine
Astral Alliance
#162 - 2016-12-21 09:10:58 UTC
Violet Crumble wrote:
Dracvlad wrote:
CREST data... ShockedRoll

EDIT:

I see you added that in to save face:

Save face of what? It's in your quote of my post. It was there from the start. The post you quoted is unedited. Nothing has been added nor removed from it.

Post your data.


What exactly do you get from CREST data as compared to a test of game mechanics on the test server, if you are so fail that you cannot do your own test server checking that is your issue.

As I said, webbing is not the answer as there is a counter for it, you seem to think you would be safe with a webber, I told you that was not in fact true, you then admitted that you were not 100% safe and should not be, case closed, running around going show me your data is just fail.

Seriously... Roll

When the going gets tough the Gankers get their CSM rep to change mechanics in their favour.

Blocked: Teckos Pech, Sonya Corvinus, baltec1, Shae Tadaruwa, Wander Prian, Daichi Yamato, Jonah Gravenstein, Merin Ryskin, Linus Gorp

Violet Crumble
Weaponised Vegemite
Flying Dangerous
#163 - 2016-12-21 09:14:56 UTC  |  Edited by: Violet Crumble
Dracvlad wrote:
What exactly do you get from CREST data as compared to a test of game mechanics on the test server, if you are so fail that you cannot do your own test server checking that is your issue.

Facts. Actual data of kills and losses that can be analysed to see if blackbirds successfully stop properly webbed ships.

Thousands and thousands of data points to analyse. The most objective and largest pool of data available that shows what is actually happening in the game over a long period of time. Totally and 100% independently verifiable by anyone.

Post your data.

Funtime Factory - We put the fun back in funtime

Dracvlad
Taishi Combine
Astral Alliance
#164 - 2016-12-21 09:28:01 UTC  |  Edited by: Dracvlad
Violet Crumble wrote:
Dracvlad wrote:
What exactly do you get from CREST data as compared to a test of game mechanics on the test server, if you are so fail that you cannot do your own test server checking that is your issue.

Facts. Actual data of kills and losses that can be analysed to see if blackbirds successfully stop properly webbed ships.

Thousands and thousands of data points to analyse. The most objective and largest pool of data available that shows what is actually happening in the game over a long period of time. Totally and 100% independently verifiable by anyone.

Post your data.


Well you don't seem to be very good are you if you are missing that data, those loss mails do exist, but then again you are in a corp that lost a POS to a war dec because your CEO at the time did not know he could anchor the hardeners inside the POS shields..., so I suppose there is a theme of incompetence here...

When the going gets tough the Gankers get their CSM rep to change mechanics in their favour.

Blocked: Teckos Pech, Sonya Corvinus, baltec1, Shae Tadaruwa, Wander Prian, Daichi Yamato, Jonah Gravenstein, Merin Ryskin, Linus Gorp

Violet Crumble
Weaponised Vegemite
Flying Dangerous
#165 - 2016-12-21 09:35:46 UTC
Dracvlad wrote:
Well you don't seem to be very good are you if you are missing that data, those loss mails do exist, but then again you are in a corp that lost a POS to a war dec because your CEO at the time did not know he could anchor the hardeners inside the POS shields..., so I suppose there is a theme of incompetence here...

I have all of the data. As I wrote earlier, I analysed it earlier today on the expectation that you would yet again bring the issue of blackbirds into this.

It isn't an issue, however if you have data that shows it is an issue, then post it. It's your claim, so prove it.

As for POS losses, yeah we are terribad (but I wasn't in the Corp at the time I don't think), though I can't see what that has to do with the issue being discussed here.

Post your data.

Funtime Factory - We put the fun back in funtime

Dracvlad
Taishi Combine
Astral Alliance
#166 - 2016-12-21 09:50:33 UTC  |  Edited by: Dracvlad
Violet Crumble wrote:
Dracvlad wrote:
Well you don't seem to be very good are you if you are missing that data, those loss mails do exist, but then again you are in a corp that lost a POS to a war dec because your CEO at the time did not know he could anchor the hardeners inside the POS shields..., so I suppose there is a theme of incompetence here...

I have all of the data. As I wrote earlier, I analysed it earlier today on the expectation that you would yet again bring the issue of blackbirds into this.

It isn't an issue, however if you have data that shows it is an issue, then post it. It's your claim, so prove it.

As for POS losses, yeah we are terribad (but I wasn't in the Corp at the time I don't think), though I can't see what that has to do with the issue being discussed here.

Post your data.


You do know that loss mails are not that reliable and that there are certain events that will remove you from the loss mail, so explain to me now just how accurate the loss mails really are so that you can be so certain that your data is correct and that it details all the facts.

For example a blackbird was reported and its weapon was wait for it, a blackbird, funny that..., I could go on, but it is a colossal waste of time to base your intel on CREST data, you should expect to be disappointed Shocked

And I can go on, we had one event where a blackbird suicide pointed a Freighter and he warped out and his kill mail reported him as being blown up at another gate, that is just not supposed to happen, but we saw it and it was petitioned, there are so many bugs and exploits in this game and you want to rely on CREST data, get real.

When the going gets tough the Gankers get their CSM rep to change mechanics in their favour.

Blocked: Teckos Pech, Sonya Corvinus, baltec1, Shae Tadaruwa, Wander Prian, Daichi Yamato, Jonah Gravenstein, Merin Ryskin, Linus Gorp

Violet Crumble
Weaponised Vegemite
Flying Dangerous
#167 - 2016-12-21 09:59:45 UTC  |  Edited by: Violet Crumble
Dracvlad wrote:
You do know that loss mails are not that reliable and that there are certain events that will remove you from the loss mail, so explain to me now just how accurate the loss mails really are so that you can be so certain that your data is correct and that it details all the facts.

For example a blackbird was reported and its weapon was wait for it, a blackbird, funny that..., I could go on, but it is a colossal waste of time to base your intel on CREST data, you should expect to be disappointed Shocked

Loss mails not reliable? Let's not go into fantast here (or maybe I can ask for evidence of the unreliability of the killmail server?). The killmail server generates the mails according to the program running for it, but yes, there are circumstances in which ships will not be on lossmails.

However, any killmail that a suicide Blackbird is on, the webbing ship will also be on; otherwise they will both be missing and not included in the data. In terms of estimated percentage, my analysis allowed for a very generous 10% of mails not including one or both ships, when in reality, the percentage is likely to be less than 1%.

Whether a Blackbirds weapons are reported as a Blackbird is immaterial. If you take all of the killmails in highsec that a Blackbird appears on, the weapon doesn't matter.

So from all killmails, filter for highsec (If you don't have a source of the data, you can get it from the static data export, or find one version here: https://github.com/alecbenzer/eve-map-data/tree/master/data) , then filter for any attacking ship being typeID 632.

From there, you can filter further for ships where the victim is any of the typeIDs: 20183, 20185, 20187, 20189, 28606, 28844, 28846, 28848, 28850 or 34328.

That will then give you all Freighter/Bowhead/Orca/Jump Freighter kills in highsec where a Blackbird is one of the attacking ships.

You can then check for the presence of a webbing ship (both by weapon type and by ship type) and then include any kills that have either (which is the most conservative approach - that favours including the data as a relevant datapoint), allowing a generous error margin to account for the possibility that the killmail doesn't have them when they were present.

The risk of a Blackbird stopping a properly webbed Freigher/Bowhead/IOrca/Jump Freighter is <0.01% (for kills, not for all Freigher movements, which drops the percentage to almost immeasurable levels).

By properly webbed Freighter/Bowhead/Orca/Jump Freighter I am applying a definition that the webbing ship must be a web bonused ship (eg. typeIDs 11961, 11963, 29990).

Post your data.

Funtime Factory - We put the fun back in funtime

Dracvlad
Taishi Combine
Astral Alliance
#168 - 2016-12-21 10:15:47 UTC  |  Edited by: Dracvlad
Violet Crumble wrote:
Dracvlad wrote:
You do know that loss mails are not that reliable and that there are certain events that will remove you from the loss mail, so explain to me now just how accurate the loss mails really are so that you can be so certain that your data is correct and that it details all the facts.

For example a blackbird was reported and its weapon was wait for it, a blackbird, funny that..., I could go on, but it is a colossal waste of time to base your intel on CREST data, you should expect to be disappointed Shocked

Loss mails not reliable? Let's not go into fantast here (or maybe I can ask for evidence of the unreliability of the killmail server?). The killmail server generates the mails according to the program running for it, but yes, there are circumstances in which ships will not be on lossmails.

However, any killmail that a suicide Blackbird is on, the webbing ship will also be on; otherwise they will both be missing and not included in the data. In terms of estimated percentage, my analysis allowed for a very large 10% of mails not including one or both ships, when in reality, the percentage is likely to be less than 1%.

So whether a Blackbirds weapons are reported as a Blackbird is immaterial. If you take all of the killmails in highsec that a Blackbird appears on, the weapon doesn't matter. You can check for (1) the presence of a webbing ship (both by weapon type and by ship type) and then include any kills that have either (which is the most conservative approach - that favours including the data as a relevant datapoint).

The risk of a Blackbird stopping a properly webbed Freigher/Bowhead/IOrca/Jump Freighter is 0.01% (for kills, not for all Freigher movements, which drops the percentage to almost immeasurable levels).

Post your data.


You are making wild assumptions on the reliability of that data, and have you even understood that a Blackbird suicide point is not needed most of the time because most people are not webbing, and that the gankers know how to use exploits and to hide what they are doing when they do use them. But if you want to believe that then be my guest, your addition of the point that you are not expected to be 100% safe was the answer wasn't it?

When the going gets tough the Gankers get their CSM rep to change mechanics in their favour.

Blocked: Teckos Pech, Sonya Corvinus, baltec1, Shae Tadaruwa, Wander Prian, Daichi Yamato, Jonah Gravenstein, Merin Ryskin, Linus Gorp

Violet Crumble
Weaponised Vegemite
Flying Dangerous
#169 - 2016-12-21 10:23:12 UTC  |  Edited by: Violet Crumble
Dracvlad wrote:
You are making wild assumptions on the reliability of that data, ...

No I am not. I know exactly what my assumptions are in my analysis and where errors are present; and have allowed very generous margins to account for them.

If you believe otherwise, then please detail exactly what my assumptions are.

Plus, of course. Post your data.

Funtime Factory - We put the fun back in funtime

Dracvlad
Taishi Combine
Astral Alliance
#170 - 2016-12-21 10:31:48 UTC
Violet Crumble wrote:
Dracvlad wrote:
You are making wild assumptions on the reliability of that data, ...

No I am not. I know exactly what my assumptions are in my analysis and where errors are present; and have allowed very generous margins to account for them.

If you believe otherwise, then please detail exactly what my assumptions are.

Plus, of course. Post your data.


The unreliability of KM data is well known.

When the going gets tough the Gankers get their CSM rep to change mechanics in their favour.

Blocked: Teckos Pech, Sonya Corvinus, baltec1, Shae Tadaruwa, Wander Prian, Daichi Yamato, Jonah Gravenstein, Merin Ryskin, Linus Gorp

Violet Crumble
Weaponised Vegemite
Flying Dangerous
#171 - 2016-12-21 10:32:59 UTC  |  Edited by: Violet Crumble
Dracvlad wrote:
The unreliability of KM data is well known.

I know what my assumptions are in each part of my analysis and what margins I have allowed to account for uncertainty. List them if you know better.

Post your data.

So far the only thing that seems to be true is that you don't have any at all. Reliable or otherwise. None. Otherwise you'd be able to just post it so it can be verified.

Funtime Factory - We put the fun back in funtime

Beta Maoye
#172 - 2016-12-21 11:37:52 UTC
The profitability of hauling is really not that good for freighter pilots. Let's say a pilot use a freighter that cost 1B to haul cargo that also worth 1B. His total risk is the cost of the ship plus the cost of cargo, which is totally 2B at risk. How much he can make for trading 1B of goods? In most cases, it would be somewhere between 10%-30% of the cost of goods. Let's say on average he make 200M per each trade. For each trip he ventures, his risk/reward ratio is 2B/200M, which is 10 to 1. In other words, he is risking 10 bucks to make 1 buck. If he is ganked just once for each 11 trips, he will break even luckily. Anything worse than that, he will loss in his trading business.
Since the beginning of alpha clone age, high sec is increasingly dangerous for haulers. Alpha clones risk almost nothing to participate in ganking activities. Everyone and his auntie would like to have an alpha just for ganking. Hauling business is terrible in this game. I told newbies not to run trading between stations. I told them they would have more fun to use a free alpha clone to take part in ganking fleet.
Shae Tadaruwa
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#173 - 2016-12-21 11:51:07 UTC  |  Edited by: Shae Tadaruwa
Beta Maoye wrote:
The profitability of hauling is really not that good for freighter pilots. Let's say a pilot use a freighter that cost 1B to haul cargo that also worth 1B. His total risk is the cost of the ship plus the cost of cargo, which is totally 2B at risk. How much he can make for trading 1B of goods? In most cases, it would be somewhere between 10%-30% of the cost of goods. Let's say on average he make 200M per each trade. For each trip he ventures, his risk/reward ratio is 2B/200M, which is 10 to 1. In other words, he is risking 10 bucks to make 1 buck. If he is ganked just once for each 11 trips, he will break even luckily. Anything worse than that, he will loss in his trading business.
Since the beginning of alpha clone age, high sec is increasingly dangerous for haulers. Alpha clones risk almost nothing to participate in ganking activities. Everyone and his auntie would like to have an alpha just for ganking. Hauling business is terrible in this game. I told newbies not to run trading between stations. I told them they would have more fun to use a free alpha clone to take part in ganking fleet.

The risk of being ganked is much lower than 1:11. Much, much lower.

On top of that, you should factor in insurance payments.

As for profitability of hauling. The top pilot for Red Frog made 48 Billion in hauling rewards last year. That was one player.

The top 10 RFF pilots made >160 Billion between them. Between it's three divisions, RFF made more than 6 trillion in hauling rewards last year alone and that was a decrease on previous years.

For good freighter pilots, there is a lot of ISK available, just in highsec. Add in lowsec and null and the income increases significantly again.

Dracvlad - "...Your intel is free intel, all you do is pay for it..." && "...If you warp on the same path as a cloaked ship, you'll make a bookmark at exactly the same spot as the cloaky camper..."

Dracvlad
Taishi Combine
Astral Alliance
#174 - 2016-12-21 11:51:59 UTC  |  Edited by: Dracvlad
Violet Crumble wrote:
Dracvlad wrote:
The unreliability of KM data is well known.

I know what my assumptions are in each part of my analysis and what margins I have allowed to account for uncertainty. List them if you know better.

Post your data.

So far the only thing that seems to be true is that you don't have any at all. Reliable or otherwise. None. Otherwise you'd be able to just post it so it can be verified.


What a pathetic way to make a point, post your data, same reply used by the gankers when people talk about people leaving when they were ganked, and people insisting on proof when none existed, same sort of sleight of hand here, because the mechanism of kill mails you are using are easily manipulated by a simple session changes of the blackbird suicide pointer, or the webber running off to get another ship to rep for example.

I don't use CREST and nor do I intend to, if I had my way all this free data would disappear, as well as that in the star map. My data is from being in position to observe such events that happened and then testing the web against a blackbird fitted like the gankers and a Macherial. You can keep blowing the trumpet of "Post your Data!" as a walking stick to cling on to, but still you were unable to prevent yourself from adding the 100% safety comment earlier which clearly indicates that you are backing away from your all you need is a webber you are fine statement which is what I pointed out as being incorrect.

The people in the AG group know about the counter to webbers which means that any high value cargo or scam courier is basically dead once they are bumped and stating "post the data" again and again like a rabid parrot makes no difference to that simple fact.

Also I noticed a loss mail to a friend of mine and I found out that you don't even use a scout, way to fail mate..., perhaps you could have used CREST data there?

At this point you have managed to bore me to death so I am not going to reply to another parrot post of yours.

EDIT: Just saw the freighter session change dig, typical example of people trying too hard to make a point and exposing that, so to help your poor brain if of course you were genuinely confused about what i meant I amended my statement just in case you really was that bad. The block function is now twitching in your CREST filled direction...



The truth is that people who want to move stuff should use a DST tanked very very well or a JF with a fleet including emergency cyno's, if you have to use a freighter due to size then contract it to someone who uses CREST data with 125% collateral and you are fine and dandy...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

When the going gets tough the Gankers get their CSM rep to change mechanics in their favour.

Blocked: Teckos Pech, Sonya Corvinus, baltec1, Shae Tadaruwa, Wander Prian, Daichi Yamato, Jonah Gravenstein, Merin Ryskin, Linus Gorp

Violet Crumble
Weaponised Vegemite
Flying Dangerous
#175 - 2016-12-21 11:57:05 UTC  |  Edited by: Violet Crumble
Dracvlad wrote:
My data is from being in position to observe such events that happened and then testing the web against a blackbird fitted like the gankers and a Macherial. You can keep blowing the trumpet of "Post your Data!" as a walking stick to cling on to, but still you were unable to prevent yourself from adding the 100% safety comment earlier which clearly indicates that you are backing away from your all you need is a webber you are fine statement which is what I pointed out as being incorrect.

So you have no proof at all of anything you claim? That just goes back to the original post where I expected that to be the case because it is modus operandi for you. Make wild claims you can't support and then just attack the other poster.

Based on objective analysis of data that anyone can also verify, what is claimed about Blackbirds is fantasy when an effective webbing alt is used. That's not from SiSi, that's from real game data on TQ.

Reality doesn't match the fantasy.

As for 100% safety, I never said such a thing. That was something you added in. Nothing should be 100% safe in this game and it isn't. That doesn't mean it is a problem either.

I can appreciate that you personally couldn't handle the risks involved (you've said so before and sold your freighters because of the risk) and that's perfectly fine. It's not true of everyone though and suicide blackbirds are easily beaten. They are not a problem and that conclusion is supported by evidence available to everyone.

Quote:
... because the mechanism of kill mails you are using are easily manipulated by simple session changes for example.

wtf? If the Freighter is able to session change, then clearly it has been able to warp and jump at its outgate and the Blackbird was less than useless.

Session changes play no part in whether blackbirds and webbing alts are on freighter gank lossmails. That is just crazy.

Funtime Factory - We put the fun back in funtime

Beta Maoye
#176 - 2016-12-21 12:21:39 UTC  |  Edited by: Beta Maoye
Shae Tadaruwa wrote:
The risk of being ganked is much lower than 1:11. Much, much lower.

On top of that, you should factor in insurance payments.

As for profitability of hauling. The top pilot for Red Frog made 48 Billion in hauling rewards last year. That was one player.

The top 10 RFF pilots made >160 Billion between them. Between it's three divisions, RFF made more than 6 trillion in hauling rewards last year alone and that was a decrease on previous years.

For good freighter pilots, there is a lot of ISK available, just in highsec. Add in lowsec and null and the income increases significantly again.

It may work for some hauling elites. For most newbies, they will be emotionally difficult to get over of losing an expensive freighter, particularly in their early days of gaming experience in EVE. I don't want them to quit before they understand the game. I would like to tell newbies to stay out of freighter hauling until they gained fair amount of knowledge of the game environment and game mechanic or got some helps from friends if they can.
Shae Tadaruwa
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#177 - 2016-12-21 12:25:19 UTC
Beta Maoye wrote:
Shae Tadaruwa wrote:
The risk of being ganked is much lower than 1:11. Much, much lower.

On top of that, you should factor in insurance payments.

As for profitability of hauling. The top pilot for Red Frog made 48 Billion in hauling rewards last year. That was one player.

The top 10 RFF pilots made >160 Billion between them. Between it's three divisions, RFF made more than 6 trillion in hauling rewards last year alone and that was a decrease on previous years.

For good freighter pilots, there is a lot of ISK available, just in highsec. Add in lowsec and null and the income increases significantly again.

It may work for some hauling elites. For most newbies, they will be emotionally difficult to get over of losing an expensive freighter, particularly in their early days of gaming experience in EVE. I don't want them to quit before they understand the game. I would like to tell newbies to stay out of freighter hauling until they gained fair amount of knowledge of the game mechanic or got some helps from friends if they can.

They are probably a bit crazy flying a freighter in their early days.

That would require lots of skills to be injected and lots of ISK from PLEX purchases.

Not something many new players are doing. Freighters are for more experienced players.

Dracvlad - "...Your intel is free intel, all you do is pay for it..." && "...If you warp on the same path as a cloaked ship, you'll make a bookmark at exactly the same spot as the cloaky camper..."

baltec1
Bat Country
Pandemic Horde
#178 - 2016-12-21 13:10:50 UTC  |  Edited by: baltec1
Shae Tadaruwa wrote:
Beta Maoye wrote:
The profitability of hauling is really not that good for freighter pilots. Let's say a pilot use a freighter that cost 1B to haul cargo that also worth 1B. His total risk is the cost of the ship plus the cost of cargo, which is totally 2B at risk. How much he can make for trading 1B of goods? In most cases, it would be somewhere between 10%-30% of the cost of goods. Let's say on average he make 200M per each trade. For each trip he ventures, his risk/reward ratio is 2B/200M, which is 10 to 1. In other words, he is risking 10 bucks to make 1 buck. If he is ganked just once for each 11 trips, he will break even luckily. Anything worse than that, he will loss in his trading business.
Since the beginning of alpha clone age, high sec is increasingly dangerous for haulers. Alpha clones risk almost nothing to participate in ganking activities. Everyone and his auntie would like to have an alpha just for ganking. Hauling business is terrible in this game. I told newbies not to run trading between stations. I told them they would have more fun to use a free alpha clone to take part in ganking fleet.

The risk of being ganked is much lower than 1:11. Much, much lower.



Less than 0.2% chance of being ganked over 1.5 million highsec gate jumps. Numbers worked out using the largest body of data available from the largest shipping organization in EVE.
Natural CloneKiller
Commonwealth Mercenaries
BLACKFLAG.
#179 - 2016-12-21 13:33:03 UTC
Shae Tadaruwa wrote:
Natural CloneKiller wrote:

Killing freighters should be left to the war dec mechanics only.

How do you wardec an NPC corp?

Get a brain. That would essentially be the end of all risk for freighters in highsec, because NPC Corps would be the absolutely assured way of providing safety to hauling.

There should be more skill and cost involved in this task. Don't get me wrong. If ccp change the war dec mechanics the first thing I will do is set up a ganking team . Does not mean I agree with it. It makes isk and I love the tears bit think it's a huge negative in the game. Risk vs reward is not balanced in ganking.
baltec1
Bat Country
Pandemic Horde
#180 - 2016-12-21 13:40:11 UTC
Natural CloneKiller wrote:

There should be more skill and cost involved in this task.


What skill and cost would you find acceptable?