Market Discussions

Well, please tell me 2 markets off those I have records of, send me an eve-mail if you wish to keep it confidential.

I am (very slowly) preparing an article for my website.

In the mean time, I have not stopped analyzing stuff, right some minutes ago I have posted a RL analysis that includes yet another example of the influence that BRNs have on the market.

Here is a picture that shows the price reaction when it hits the yellow levels (BRNs), the small arrows show the "hit points".

It's part of a whole market analysis, sadly it's in Italian and I have no time to translate it. So all I can do is to provide a terrible Google Translate version of it.

Here are the 3 charts that the translation won't let you see:

Monthly chart
Weekly chart
Daily chart

Does your EVE market dumper OHLC program still work? I tried to get it working so I could get some better data and I was not able to - some weird Python error that means that a List is Nothing.

I tried every folder in my cache from the actual CachedMethodCalls folder on up, so it wasn't a bad path.

Alternatively, do you have a better way of getting OHLC data now?

Interesting.

I've cleared cache, so it's not a corrupted cache.

Here's the error I get:




Here's the config file:


There's a tab before Tritanium, it just doesn't show up in this post.

As part of the testing I did I trimmed it down to 1 item but it did the same thing with the other lines in there.

Also I am opening the market history for 1 year in the game before I run the program, so it does get cached. I am not running EVEMon or anything else that reads the cache at this time. All directories in question exist.

If I set EVERoot to the actual path that EVE is installed at: D:\EVE\ it gives an error about not being able to find the cache.

Welp, got it working. Thanks a ton!

It actually did need to be pointed to the eve folder. Maybe I left a / off the end of the path or something last time I did it. Thanks for your help - now to try to apply some of these methods.

Huh, assumed they would have talked with you about it. Sloppy.

That's actually how i found out about this, yes.

So we'll get treated to thirty paragraphs in which you conclude they'll fall to about 750 before falling further, going back up, or staying the same?

No, I am busy with making money in RL, so it'll be mostly pictures.
Also, I got a nice sign of appreciation by CCP for my website and thus I'll focus mainly on that.

(EvE Forums version)

Nitrogen Isotopes market analys Pt 1

Introduction

Lately I have been contacted or EvE-mailed by some players, about what the Nitrogen Isotopes market is doing.

Some of them did that out of pure curiosity, some of them because they know I am into markets analysis and expecially into the Nitrogen Isotopes market. Some of them, finally, because they are personally invested at varying degrees of success.

This analysis will be atypical. I had prepared the material in August 24, to be posted on 25. Yet I had both real life and website technical issues so I had to delay the posting.

Despite being a bit outdated, I will post the original charts at first. Because:

- they costed me some time to prepare and don’t want the effort to go to waste.

- I want you to see the scenarios available 3 (almost 4) days ago and how they evolved.

But first of all, I’ll post one of the many EvE-mails I send as reply to the players who ask me about the markets. I feel like I am not violating the player’s privacy as I have removed his name and the text is entirely my own reply with no quotes from his text.

The EvE-mail shows how I was talking him about a realistic scenario days ahead. Follows an EvE chart showing what price indeed did: it broke through the “mesa” and is going to retest the base of that mesa. I used “mesa” in the EvE-mail because that player does not know the finance jargon (here is an acronyms page) and so I could not mention it as being a “RM” (range market). The upper part and lower parts of the RM are nothing else but the RM’s resistance and support levels. The EvE chart shows arrows indicating the various bits I talked about in the EvE-mail.

Here’s the chart updated to today

Where did I take those ideas about “mesa” and similar? Simple, from the market analysis I was due to post.

Follows the original market analysis, which is a bit outdated but still relevant and, most of all, shows the evolution of the market through its own targets and levels.


Monthly chart
What Price is Doing (WPD)

Chart link

Long term price is in an uptrend, started with the March 2013 BUOB but never officially confirmed by a price action pattern. There is an IB (inside bar) at July 2013 but those usually only give informations, not confirmations.

We may draw a red trend line and find a dynamic resistance price will have to fight to try and break through. Notice the “try” specifier.

The yellow lines, as usual, represent the Big Round Numbers (BRNs) relevant to this market.

The purple line is a monthly level. Now, notice how it nicely matches the last swing but also how it acts as resistance and support to 2011 and 2012 bars. Reading the price at that level once again reveals how traders collectively and inconsciously tend to use round numbers. In fact the level sits at 697.62 ISK, which means that the sum of thousands of trades ended up producing a level 2.38 ISK away from 700 RN. This proves that levels are not a fabrication, but real “points of interest” for market participants. Market participants who love to think in round, decimal numbers.


Weekly chart
What Price is Doing (WPD)

Chart link

The weekly chart shows some quite useful detail. First of all the trend line now shows (once again) that price tends to be quite precise in its motion. Trend lines are nothing more than a kind of level that forms in diagonal instead of being horizontal. However, those levels are harder to spot and thus are worse to trade than the horizontal ones.

A feature, a pattern that immediately pops out off the chart is the weekly range market (W RM, in blue). If you look at it, you will see why leter I gave my “mesa” reply in the EvE-mail above: it is the mesa. Price is talking, it has just to be heard.

Also, despite being completely unpredictable in general, price sticks to its own rules. One of them is: “if price comes back inside a RM, the RM’s old resistance will return being in force and so will the RM’s support. Price will re-enter a rectangular cage where a trader may use this rule to short sell at resistance with support as first target or to buy at support with resistance as first target.

Please notice how the monthly and weekly analyses don’t try guessing price’s immediate next moves but just to understand What Price is Doing, that is a “macro” overview, a context.