Market Discussions

For those who still believe that price is a voodoo thing.

Here are two analyses I posted on our largest national finance forum, one of them is a trade still going on.

The first one is a trade of USD vs Sweden Kronas. Notice the double bottom that did what I kept saying in this thread.
This is when the trade started and this is today's update.


The second is a textbook head and shoulder.
At the time, I had drawn its neckline and the target (the support which is the bottom of the blue rectangle).

This is today's update. Price reached the small double bottom to its left, which might be able to stop its descent.
Anyway now that price has run its course, the head and shoulders effect is over, therefore price returns being unpredictable till it will give another clear indication of what it wants to do next.

load of rubbish. if you see this pattern in eve markets or RL markets, it doesnt mean it will ever ever repeat, especially in EVE. all vv can do is look at the past and guess. none, not 1 of those graphs apply to eve online.

the proof is in the pudding, wheres the market transactions of yours from 3-4 years ago where you predicted the mineral basket going up coz of patch build hype. show us some before and after in game. how were you to know 9 months ago about the mineral basket increases? but here you are still holding and waiting for the perfect graph to show why you are brilliant.

Prudent money management, is not listening to methods drawn by shyster forex traders. If this forum had adsense, the ads would be other RL scammers peddling the same BS methods that work 50/50.

Where i live we have alot of ppl spamming this, its become a pyramid scheme, ppl stick "want to work from home signs, and earn 1000 a day" crap everywhere, and its all a load of rubbish. every set of traffic lights is another poorly drawn cardboard sign with "want to get rich and work from home" start today. selling these exact same too good to true diatribes.

following a method like this is no different to blindly throwing at a dartboard & picking investments.

The beauty of calling you out on it, is just how low your actual eve-o profits are with that 100b you even screen capped it. Sorry VV, said my bit, the only person you are trying to convince this insane method is actually plausible is yourself + a few ass kissers that don't trade in RL & think this is normal.

In all seriousness, i hope you don't get burned in RL with this rubbish. but its probably going to take a major loss to get you to see the truth.

this thread is 200 replies of you convincing yourself you are right.

Dutifully reporting in.

Orders
Sales

Putting money where the mouth is, and letting money talk. Everything else is empty chatter.

I hoped you'd have changed in this year and gave you multiple chances to prove so.
I know that you know how to read old threads, that you know how investments work, so you are doing this just to bring your unconstructive negativity to try and raise rabble and "trololol". Therefore after this reply, this new alt of yours is going to join your past alts spot in my ignore list.

Now go and start spamming Grendell's investments, TornSoul's investments etc. who provide less profits than me even with comparable size bonds / IPOs.


Futhermore, more for the other well intentioned readers than you, I am asking to just read the OP, where it's clearly and unmistakably stated:







It is not a random choice to have put "Lazy" and "Slow" it at the first position. I anticipated the trolls moves.
It's all clearly written on the tin.


Mission of this thread



This thread is first and foremost an ambitious research on the most realistic economy in the gaming industry. The ISK comes next, and it comes.



And last (but not least), still from the original thread, the most important, fundamental belief that keeps me going in my whole gaming and RL life:


I believe in the value of "thinking different", this has served me well in the past decade of MMO gaming, results being sometimes still visible today in the form of videos or guides sites.

Therefore I won't stop before closed doors, conventions, "secrets" and whatever.



This is my emergent gameplay, this is my sand box, this is my EvE.

Enter at YOUR peril!

PLEX: watch out for the current double bottom. If price will close above it and puts a bullish price action, it will be a buying opportunity.
Be very careful to triple check the retracement + price action, we are in a very powerful downtrend and skipping / ignoring those safety checks WILL hurt your wallet!

PLEX analysis

Introduction

As anticipated some days ago, PLEX is close to a very important confluence.

While not really rare, those events often provide some of the best and safest opportunities to enter a trade.

In the specific case, we are at the apex of a triangle, in confluence with a BRN 500M.

Triangles tend to kick and push prices up or down with a good momentum, in confluence with something else they improve even further.

This means, the next few weeks may see price sharply go up / down in a "tradable way".


Monthly chart

What Price is Doing (WPD)
The monthly chart shows a good amount of information. We can see is price going to form an inside bar (IB) above BRN 500M and that IB also comes at the apex of a powerful triangle.

The confluence is expecially significant, the triangle lower trend line shows price has been trending up since 2010, price will react with some powerful momentum to the resulting confluences.

Here's the monthly chart.


Weekly chart

What Price is Doing (WPD)
The weekly chart lets us see a much clearer scenario.

The first chart shows the perfect confluence that is forming up, you can see how there's just few bars left before the apex is hit and then price may take it's usual choices: it may go up, down or sideways!

Here's the weekly chart.

Now, I am sure most will be scratching their head quite hard: "how comes, we don't need to be a market genius to says prices may go up, down or stay the same!"

This is a perfect opportunity to restate the obvious: nobody can predict the future!
So what's all of this analysis stuff worth if it can't predict the future? It seems pretty pointless!
No, it's not pointless.
The objective of a trader is to make money. In order to achieve that, he has to prepare a trading plan composed of "if this happens then…" statements, something like a little software program.

Only and exclusively when / if all the "if this happens" clauses become true, then a market order will be placed at all.

The plan gives a statistical edge that in the medium term brings in more profits than losses and that's the trader income. The losses are the operation expenses.

In our case, the plan is fairly simple, it takes concepts I have described time and again in the past (on the EvE forums).


The scenario, the What Price is Doing (WPD), is made by these simple building blocks / concepts:

1. EvE specific: we cannot short sell so we must only take long (buy) trades.
2. Nicely coming along with the above: we are above a very strong (years standing) up trend line, so we will only accept buy trades.
3. Price is closing above a BRN, this is an information about buyers still being strong. Furthermore BRNs may be expecially strong support or resistance levels and this reinforces the effects.
4. Price is coming to the apex of a triangle. Triangles tend to break and push price up or down quite well. Triangles have predictable intermediate and final targets, namely at their own swings that "touch" the triangle sides. The final target is always the swing where the triangle started, looking at the side where price broke.
5. All of the above will happen at the same time and this is called "confluence" of factors. Confluences strengthen other informations or patterns.

The plan will be as follows:

1. Wait for triangle to break on the weekly chart.
2. If it breaks above the BRN and thus price starts rising then go on the daily chart and seek for a confirmed buy price action pattern (BUOB, DBLHC, PB…).
3. If both of the above happen, place a buy order above the price action pattern bar(s). The intermediate and final targets are shown on the next chart. At this point
4. If one of the above points does not happen, then the whole plan is cancelled.

As traders say, we Plan The Trade (PTT) first, if the conditions happen we Trade The Plan (TTP).

As you can see, not for a single second we pretend to know the future, we just react to possible conditions going to happen and use some basic tools ("patterns") that statistically tend to indicate an higher probability of something going to happen (in example: a BUOB statistically ends up pushing price up more often than not, a BUOB components studied in the details would reveal it's composed by a mini-up trend developed in the lower time frames that compose the pattern).

Of course, many times the plan won't take off (and no order will be placed), as one or more of the preconditions don't happen. In example, we don't want to cover the case price goes down (can't short sell in EvE) or stays stuck sideways (no profit to be made).

That's how the markets work and we have to harden up and deal with it. We have to intercept the minority of situations where the markets do as we expected, the majority of time it's completely unpredictable. Markets tend to be unpredictable outside of confluences and away from support / resistance levels and to become predictable when these events happen. This is why we actively hunt those events!


The plan is detailed by this chart.

Hi VV,
I was hoping you'd be able to post a link or some way of getting older data for the main market items i.e. minerals, ice products, basically anything that you have 1 year+ data for. Doing monthly candlestick graphs with only 1 year of data is not very illuminating...

Also, how do you decide where to put monthly and weekly (and even daily) support/restraint lines on the graphs?

Yeah, I checked evemarketeer.com before, and it's a pity the site is down... it would have wonderful data for plenty of items. If you could upload the minerals/isotopes/plex CSV files that would be excellent and most appreciated :) Regarding those CSV files, how do you keep them updated with daily data with the tool on your website without wiping any pre-1-year data?

I will check out that video regarding the lines, and I suspect it'll show me a whole lot more than just those... thanks for providing these awesome resources.

Sadly as of now the history has to be manually merged with the last year data dump. I am to develop a software to merge these things in automatic and then I will give it away to everyone in MD.

In the mean time, since I am going to move home next week, if you really can't wait, I may find the time to manually create you 1-2 dumps and make them downloadable, but nothing more. I am too busy preparing the leave.




Thank you.