EVE General Discussion

I dont know. Sometimes I get a lot of drop, one after another, but some sites are feeling wrong like they give me only a overseer effects one time after another, and I am thinking when running those: "Probably another Overseer effects will drop and nothing else... why am I doing this faction, better move somewhere else..."

What if the algorithm is watching how much sites are run daily and adjustes the loot chance? So there would be no flooding of market with same kind of modules and drop of prices for those selling them.

I know for a fact it doesn't work that way. Look at Guristas/pith loot. Look at Pirate Battleships (The rattlesnake got down to 350 mil for a long time). if there was some kind of adjustment function, I sure as heck wouldn't have gotten two commander spawns and 2 10/10 escalations last night.

The over-farming that goes on across EVE space wouldn't be happening at all if such a thing existed, and those of us who explore and farm anomalies would be constantly moving about trying to find content.

A lot of people don't understand how RNG works, The whole "RNG is R lol, you're going to have good and bad days" doesn't cover it all. If you have enough data points then RNG becomes a static number. If drop chance is 50% then, with enough drops, it'll even out at 50%. But if RNG is skewed and drop chance is changed it's STILL RNG but that doesn't mean the outcome will be the same just because it's still RNG. So people who go "lol, stop whining I've been doing fine" are no better than the "waah drop chance is changed, I've been doing badly" folks they reply to.

Over the years of doing the exact same thing in PVE (combat exploration in Gallente space) I've noticed shifts back and forth in regards to drop chance, drop type, BPC chance and escalation chance. If you do a whole lot of this stuff then you will notice trends and it's not very difficult to realize that yes, there have been some changes recently (and by recently I mean "the last few months"). Does that mean I'll comment on having a bad week? No because the sample size is too small and it can go either way (this morning I made 490 mil in HS in about 3.5 hours).

And then there's the issue of how stuff differs per faction space you're in. Lots of really weird differences, some of them do make sense while others are just "wtf". Given that it's very well possible that there might be differences in drop chances per faction as well (this is CCP after al, it's not like they invented logic or something), this results in person A going "wtf, changes" and B going "no changes here" simply because they operate in a different area. This is of course speculation at best but a) it wouldn't surprise me and b) it would explain the differences in (perceived) performance.


With that I'll say again what I stated earlier: given the volume of data points I have (because I do this **** a lot) and the fixed situation of doing in the same locations all the time I have noticed some fairly recent changes.

This post is a perfect example of what I'm talking about. You're trying to quantify something that you have no way of really measuring. You'd need to know how the content is coded to figure it out completely. Almost a textbook example of Gambler's Fallacy


I know that trying to make sense of randomness is a core function of our brains, I'm as guilty of it as anyone (I did 25 refuges, i should get something!!!!). When i was in college (damn has it really been 2 decades??) I learned one of the most interesting words I ever learned. Apophenia, the tendency we have perceive meaningful patterns from random data. This discussion is proof of the phenomenon.

Where is your proof that nothing changed, your statements are based on some amazing knowledge that you can't have unless you're part of CCP who's responsible for this stuff. So unless you have proof that nothing has changed I'll stick to what I see happening "in the field" (while taking into account the whole concept of averages).


As said, baseless "lol nothing happened" is just as terrible as baseless "omg changes!".

At a point WAY away from here. You think 30 is a dry spell? My record in high sec is in the 150 range 3 or 4 years ago in high sec. Back when I was counting and trying to quantify things. rather than actually enjoying the content.

The real answer , though is "stop counting, because all counting and trying to figure out patterns and chances can do is drive you crazy".

I tell people I know in real life the same thing when we go to the casino. My wife and I learned that the best way to enjoy yourself is to consider the money in our pockets as 'gone' before we hit the casino floor. So when we win, we are surprised and delighted. some of our 'casino buddies' come in with a 'sure fire plan' and such golden thoughts as 'stay on one machine' and 'never do max bet' and so forth and so on.

My wife and I leave the casino full (the Buffet at Winstar casino is incredible!), relaxed, happy and sometimes with more money in our pockets than we went in with. Some of those other people leave wondering where they are going to get rent money (because they just spent there's) and trying to find the phone number to gamblers anonymous.

I suggest the same to people in EVE. When farming anoms, the currency you are spending is TIME. Consider the time you will spend exploring (or playing EVE in general) as already wasted, let the escalations, faction drops and salvage come as surprises and bonuses, and enjoy yourself for the simple sake of enjoying yourself and you will have a good time. Worry about "drop rates" and "sample sizes" and "data points" and you'll not only end up miserable like a lot of these guys who run to the forum proclaiming there is a problem, you might end up farming incursions (where the rewards are predictable) and turn into a zombie. A zombie that isn't having fun lol.





There is no real difference, if you look around various forums from no on, you will see the exact same things over and over and over and over gain like I have for the last nine years. ie people confusing what might be a personal losing streak in a randomized 'gambling' style of content as 'a serious problem that must be wide spread'. It isn't, it's the nature of the beast.

Then of course I come in and tell them about what I did in the same time period

Time is always a currency, so common that we fail to see it as currency anymore. You can't get it back and it's finite (to you) so it becomes a non-issue until you either have that moment at death or are confronted with your mortality in some way then it's suddenly irreplaceable. Welcome to the human condition.

I'm not miserable, mearly observant. In EVE, I do what I find is fun and really don't worry about anyone else's definition of fun. I run sites because it's a way to test out ship builds and at the same time earn some of the ISK back that I get from doing the ship builds. It's also good combat practice which I've gotten much better at than when I first started.

So, all I'm tossing out here is my observed empirical experience with the issue being discussed. Yes, I agree I could be in a long, long dry spell, but maybe someone at CCP is actually paying attention to these threads and poked their nose into the RNG to make certain it was still breathing properly. If so, then all is right with New Eden and I shall endeavor to continue to throttle pirates.

What's scary is my little T1 Algos destroyer is now as lethal at clearing Refuge level sites as my T2 cruiser is!

I've run a few Serpentis 1/10 and 2/10 in the last two days and gotten good drops. Maybe I was lucky, but that's a data point. I was in lowsec, although I'd be surprised if that affects the drop chances for sites of the same type.