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Technetium

Author
Tasko Pal
Spallated Garniferous Schist
#21 - 2012-01-01 19:23:51 UTC
Messoroz wrote:


CCP never said they were nerfing moon goo, in fact they said all was working as intended as they had no desire for "even" distribution of resources.


They don't say a lot of things. But the priciest moon mineral is only found in a certain part of 0.0. That probably will be fixed eventually CCP-style, if only to mix things up.
Soldarius
Dreddit
Test Alliance Please Ignore
#22 - 2012-01-02 09:51:05 UTC
Gizan wrote:
http://eve-kill.net/?a=kill_detail&kll_id=11976492
meanwhile in highsec!


Oh, sweet delicious tears! What I wouldn't do to get a hold of that guys comms when he realized what was going down.

http://youtu.be/YVkUvmDQ3HY

Jarnis McPieksu
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#23 - 2012-01-02 10:37:19 UTC  |  Edited by: Jarnis McPieksu
Mantra Achura wrote:
Jiska Ensa wrote:
Maybe it has something to do with the dozens of technetium towers that are being reinforced and destroyed, momentarily disrupting the supply and causing market ripples...but what would I know.


Tech moon reinforcements shall pump up prices instead of dropping them.


Temporarily.

Situation after that depends on what the new landlord wants to do. It is commonly thought that the Tech price is being held artificially high by a cartel.

Once Goons control even more of the Technetium in EVE, they could, in theory, crash the market just to mess up things for the remaining other holders of Tech, starving their income temporarily and possibly inducing drama over it.

Or they could jack up the price even more, simply by holding back supplies and stockpiling. Heck, mere suggestion that they might do so could send the price skywards as manufacturers fill their stockpiles. On the other hand, it is a very risky market to speculate in simply because the "technical floor" of technetium price is far below the current market price. 80-90% of Technetium price is "air", caused by manipulation by Technetium moon holders.

...and all that is even without the factor of :CCP: - it is fully expected that CCP will do *something* about Technetium at some point. Problem is, right now it is the main driving force of conflict in 0.0 that is otherwise effectively worthless space (the only two valuables in 0.0: Technetium and the ability to build supercaps - everything else is overshadowed by high sec Incursion farming) so CCP may be reluctant to just crash the value of Technetium without first fixing the value of 0.0 space holding. Due to the immense costs and organization required to conquer and hold 0.0 space, there has to be a juicy carrot for it and right now there really isn't... except Technetium.

Heck, the main reason why the whole eastern side of 0.0 is infested by RMT bots is because nobody else wants that space due to it being so worthless.
Mantra Achura
Stammtisch
#24 - 2012-01-02 14:50:36 UTC  |  Edited by: Mantra Achura
Jarnis McPieksu wrote:

Temporarily.

Situation after that depends on what the new landlord wants to do. It is commonly thought that the Tech price is being held artificially high by a cartel.

Once Goons control even more of the Technetium in EVE, they could, in theory, crash the market just to mess up things for the remaining other holders of Tech, starving their income temporarily and possibly inducing drama over it.

Or they could jack up the price even more, simply by holding back supplies and stockpiling. Heck, mere suggestion that they might do so could send the price skywards as manufacturers fill their stockpiles. On the other hand, it is a very risky market to speculate in simply because the "technical floor" of technetium price is far below the current market price. 80-90% of Technetium price is "air", caused by manipulation by Technetium moon holders.

...and all that is even without the factor of :CCP: - it is fully expected that CCP will do *something* about Technetium at some point. Problem is, right now it is the main driving force of conflict in 0.0 that is otherwise effectively worthless space (the only two valuables in 0.0: Technetium and the ability to build supercaps - everything else is overshadowed by high sec Incursion farming) so CCP may be reluctant to just crash the value of Technetium without first fixing the value of 0.0 space holding. Due to the immense costs and organization required to conquer and hold 0.0 space, there has to be a juicy carrot for it and right now there really isn't... except Technetium.

Heck, the main reason why the whole eastern side of 0.0 is infested by RMT bots is because nobody else wants that space due to it being so worthless.


Indeed, but honstly who wants to lose billions by dumping on buy orders just to press average prices down? Even if they want to press prices down there are enough guys eager buy their stuff. Got some decent amount of buy orders at 80k filled three days ago and would like to repeat that again in the future...

Regarding the mentioned cartel:
Those calling tech sources their own are aware of its rarity and are selling for high prices accordingly. Whether the cartel exists or not, prices are kept high. During the NC period their wasn't any cartel except for the first, let's say, 3 month. Majesta Empire for example sold completely on its own but prices kept rising.

I'm not worried about crashing tech prices until a CCP devblog will report any changes in the future.
Jarnis McPieksu
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#25 - 2012-01-02 15:24:49 UTC
The risk in Technetium is that the price is open to massive swings. If a tech holder wants to do economic warfare, it is a massive loaded gun. Consider this: Even if the large scale Technetium holders would suddenly sell Technetium at 50k per unit, they would still swim in ISK (and a mountain of it) but it could do terrible damage to anyone holding large stockpiles of it (speculators would be grossly in the red and any manufacturer would see that anything they make out of existing stockpiles paid at "full price" is suddenly going to be made at a loss, probably a big loss). More importantly, it would greatly harm anyone funding operations out of small number of Technetium moons.

TLDR: Any time a product on the market is priced according to the whims of just a few individuals, massive and more importantly, lasting swings are possible. Up or down. 99% of EVE market isn't like that - any manipulation or cornering is usually damped out very quickly as market forces move in to profit. Technetium is an exception. Speculate and/or stockpile accordingly.
Mantra Achura
Stammtisch
#26 - 2012-01-02 15:25:14 UTC
Update:
I remember the old days as NC got invaded. First instruction we got prior the invasion was to remove all reaction towers and sell tech directly to the market.

That could be the case again with the goon invasion. Nanotransistor and Fulleride prices shall bump and tech shall fall in that case.
Hemmo Paskiainen
#27 - 2012-01-02 15:30:05 UTC
Jarnis McPieksu wrote:


Heck, the main reason why the whole eastern side of 0.0 is infested by RMT bots is because nobody else wants that space due to it being so worthless.


bots are 95% profit, east is not worthless space its easiest bot space ingame..... try setting up bots for neuting raiders or nasty sansha (bad caldari damage type)

If relativity equals time plus momentum, what equals relativity, if the momentum is minus to the time?

Mantra Achura
Stammtisch
#28 - 2012-01-02 15:38:02 UTC
Jarnis McPieksu wrote:
The risk in Technetium is that the price is open to massive swings. If a tech holder wants to do economic warfare, it is a massive loaded gun. Consider this: Even if the large scale Technetium holders would suddenly sell Technetium at 50k per unit, they would still swim in ISK (and a mountain of it) but it could do terrible damage to anyone holding large stockpiles of it (speculators would be grossly in the red and any manufacturer would see that anything they make out of existing stockpiles paid at "full price" is suddenly going to be made at a loss, probably a big loss). More importantly, it would greatly harm anyone funding operations out of small number of Technetium moons.

TLDR: Any time a product on the market is priced according to the whims of just a few individuals, massive and more importantly, lasting swings are possible. Up or down. 99% of EVE market isn't like that - any manipulation or cornering is usually damped out very quickly as market forces move in to profit. Technetium is an exception. Speculate and/or stockpile accordingly.


Well, I can only report from an "ex Minister of Revenue" perspective. An alliance isn't concerned about speculators and such but just about pure profit: "Sell as high as possible and gain ISK as fast as possible to maintain (Capital) SRPs and other expenses."
Jarnis McPieksu
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#29 - 2012-01-02 16:30:13 UTC
Obviously I was talking "risk" from the perspective of someone who would buy Technetium or Technetium-derivered T2 construction materials from Jita market for industrial purposes.

In fact, the point was that since the sellers have no risk - they are just "printing ISK", anyone speculating on Tech is juggling with a loaded gun that can be remote-fired by a Goon... Lol
Avensys
The Waterworks
#30 - 2012-01-02 16:39:43 UTC
Jarnis McPieksu wrote:
and any manufacturer would see that anything they make out of existing stockpiles paid at "full price" is suddenly going to be made at a loss, probably a big loss

Roll
Jarnis McPieksu
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#31 - 2012-01-02 16:51:41 UTC
Avensys wrote:
Jarnis McPieksu wrote:
and any manufacturer would see that anything they make out of existing stockpiles paid at "full price" is suddenly going to be made at a loss, probably a big loss

Roll


Yes, it is a "mathematical loss" but it becomes a real loss when the product you are making goes down in price before you can turn all those materials into finished goods and sell it - while your competition is selling stuff they made out of cheaper materials.

(Naturally same is true other way around - if Technetium price keeps rising, your stockpiles were bought "on the cheap" so your profit margins will like that. It all really depends on your taste of risk and your liquid ISK buffers)
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