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Wall of PLEX article on the Mittani

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TheSmokingHertog
Julia's Interstellar Trade Emperium
#21 - 2016-05-06 00:22:29 UTC
Aaron Honk wrote:
Shayla Etherodyne wrote:
Aaron Honk wrote:
Soon you will be able to buy plex at 0% broker with region wide orders in citadels, I don't think he though about this.



But citadels can make region wide orders? I doubt that.
It would be very funny is Joe citadel in a secluded system can place orders with 0% broker fees in Mark citadels a guy that hate him and has set his fee at 1105.


It works on SiSi


Can you also setup 0% tax remote sell orders?

"Dogma is kind of like quantum physics, observing the dogma state will change it." ~ CCP Prism X

"Schrödinger's Missile. I dig it." ~ Makari Aeron

-= "Brain in a Box on Singularity" - April 2015 =-
Rhivre
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#22 - 2016-05-06 00:26:12 UTC  |  Edited by: Rhivre
TheSmokingHertog wrote:
Aaron Honk wrote:
Shayla Etherodyne wrote:
Aaron Honk wrote:
Soon you will be able to buy plex at 0% broker with region wide orders in citadels, I don't think he though about this.



But citadels can make region wide orders? I doubt that.
It would be very funny is Joe citadel in a secluded system can place orders with 0% broker fees in Mark citadels a guy that hate him and has set his fee at 1105.


It works on SiSi


Can you also setup 0% tax remote sell orders?



You can set ranged orders from a citadel.

The broker fee (as normal) is set at the issuing station, so, a 1 jump range buy order costs the broker fee from the station you set it from

If I set a remote sell order, it will be based on the location I am setting it at, so, sit in perimeter, set a station order in Jita, it will charge me jita fees

Fluffy Bunny Pic!

Darkstar01
Doomheim
#23 - 2016-05-06 15:56:54 UTC  |  Edited by: Darkstar01
Areen Sassel wrote:
Darkstar01 wrote:
Also I wonder, after spending 3 - 4 Trillion ISK just to set up the buy orders before the patch, how much ISK is there left to cover the actual PLEX purchases?


That's the core of the objection - the article details how to get all your ISK into broker fees leaving none at all to cover the purchases.


Yes, but even if the scheme worked out exactly according to plan (and assuming he still has plenty of ISK left after spending 4 Tril on broker fees), there is no way the profit would be 200 Bil per day, 20 Bil per Hour, or even 10 Bil per Hour (maybe it could be 10 Bil per hour in certain hours when he gets lucky). There is also no way the PLEX traded on April 27 would have been 280,000 units.

He is using his low broker fee to give him pricing advantage. So assuming if he doesn't want any competition, then he would have to price the PLEX at a point where it gives him a profit (pre-patch broker fees), but give other traders no profit (post-patch broker fees).

Assuming everything worked out exactly according to his plan, and the broker fee rose to 3.5% immediately (instead of 2%). His pricing advantage would have been 3.5% (post patch) - 0.43% (pre-patch) = 3.07%.

So this means after the patch, if there is a 3.07% spread between Buy Order and Sell Order, then his profit would be 3.07%, and other trader's profit would be 0%. Correct me if I'm wrong.

The average number of PLEX being traded everyday now is what, around 4000 / day recently? This is mainly due to the patch and the new Skill Injectors, because it was around 2000-3000 before the patch. People are liquidating to buy Citadel BPO's, Skill Injectors, etc. and I'm pretty sure after all this is done, the quantity traded will settle down a bit.

Some of this quantity is attributed to Sell Orders, some to Buy Orders. For simplicity sake, let's assume 2000 goes to Buy Order, 2000 goes to Sell Order.

Assuming everything worked out according to plan, his 3.07% profit margin on each PLEX priced at 950 million would have been around 29 mil. If he captures 100% of the market where his buy order gets 2000 units, and then flips them to sell 2000 units - he would end up with a profit of around 58 Billion per day (2.5 Billion per hour) - And this is only if he captures 100% of the market, which I don't think is possible.

So in order to do all of this, first he planned to spend 5 Trillion on broker fees (1200 trillion x 0.43%) - because according to him, he got a 5 Trillion loan to do this.....

Then, he has to capture 100% of the PLEX market for 86 full days straight to make it all back.....assuming if the average quantity stays at 4000 units per day. And he has to maintain enough ISK in his wallet the whole time, so a large PLEX liquidation won't cancel out his Buy Orders.

Now this is also assuming there are no other external factors beyond his control - like the amount of PLEX being generated by CCP from sales, or if a large PLEX holder (larger than his wallet) decides to liquidate. Because once your wallet runs out of money, it only takes 1 PLEX to cancel out a Buy Order of 1000 PLEX.

My math is probably not exact, because I'm not as good at math as he is. But obviously, even if everything worked out according to plan, there is no way the results would be as he claimed.

probag Bear is free to chime in on this Big smile
Rhivre
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#24 - 2016-05-06 16:24:37 UTC
He has not spent 4T on broker fees, why do people keep thinking this?


Fluffy Bunny Pic!

Zahara Cody
Imperial Corrections Service.
#25 - 2016-05-06 16:41:40 UTC
How darkstar became a trillionaire is beyond me.

Hating is free, that's why poor people do it the best.
Darkstar01
Doomheim
#26 - 2016-05-06 17:13:26 UTC  |  Edited by: Darkstar01
If he placed 1200 Trillion worth of Buy Order for PLEX like his original plan - then he would have spent ~4 Trillion in broker fees.

Isn't that what I said in my post? If everything went according to plan, and if he placed the buy order for 1200 Trillion worth of PLEX.

(Again, there's no such thing as 1200 Trillion worth of anything, because that kind of ISK doesn't exist. The Economy is only as big as how much ISK is in existence. By the time you actually have a certain quantity of Item X that equates 1200 Trillion based on the current Jita Price - guess what, it's not 1200 Trillion). So first of all, the idea of saying "1200 trillion" worth of PLEX is wacky.

Let me give you a simple example - lets say the world has a population of 4 people. Person 1, Person 2, and Person 3 each have $25 - so there is $75 in this world altogether. Person 4 has a PLEX - there is no way that Person 4 can sell the PLEX for $100, if the combined money for Person 1, 2, and 3 is only $75. Now person 1, 2, 3 might form a joint venture, and buy the PLEX for $75, but then the PLEX would only be worth $75.

In my post, the hypotheticals that I used were actually in his favor - I said if everything worked out according to his plan, and if he did get the loan, to place the buy order for 1200 trillion.

You are welcome to point out where I am wrong. And please do, because I accept it when people point out where I am wrong.
Rhivre
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#27 - 2016-05-06 17:26:02 UTC
Darkstar01 wrote:
If he placed 1200 Trillion worth of Buy Order for PLEX like his original plan - then he would have spent ~4 Trillion in broker fees.

Isn't that what I said in my post? If everything went according to plan, and if he placed the buy order for 1200 Trillion worth of PLEX.

Again, there's no such thing as 1200 Trillion.

You are welcome to point out where I am wrong.



He would have placed it across multiple items in that case, and regarding the 280k units?

Seeing as 5800 of the plex orders on the 27th were him selling to himself , if he wanted to sell himself 280k units, he could have done (although he would have had to get up very early :p )

There is 1200 Trillion, its 1.2 Quadrillion (Handily, there is almost 1 Quadrillion loose in eve at the moment)

http://content.eveonline.com/www/newssystem/media/70258/1/9b_isk.float.3.png

Fluffy Bunny Pic!

Dethmourne Silvermane
Fliet Pizza Delivery
Of Essence
#28 - 2016-05-06 17:32:08 UTC
Can somebody ELI5 how he actually claims to make money on this? Is it just that he's paying less in broker fees than other people? He makes it sound like he's making money on broker fees, but that's only ever a sink, even if you have an absolute advantage due to having a lower value of broker fees... you're still only making money off what you can flip them for.

Interested Party (TM)
Darkstar01
Doomheim
#29 - 2016-05-06 18:02:11 UTC  |  Edited by: Darkstar01
Rhivre wrote:
Darkstar01 wrote:
If he placed 1200 Trillion worth of Buy Order for PLEX like his original plan - then he would have spent ~4 Trillion in broker fees.

Isn't that what I said in my post? If everything went according to plan, and if he placed the buy order for 1200 Trillion worth of PLEX.

Again, there's no such thing as 1200 Trillion.

You are welcome to point out where I am wrong.



He would have placed it across multiple items in that case, and regarding the 280k units?

Seeing as 5800 of the plex orders on the 27th were him selling to himself , if he wanted to sell himself 280k units, he could have done (although he would have had to get up very early :p )

There is 1200 Trillion, its 1.2 Quadrillion (Handily, there is almost 1 Quadrillion loose in eve at the moment)

http://content.eveonline.com/www/newssystem/media/70258/1/9b_isk.float.3.png


OK thanks for explaining, so what he meant by the 280,000 was him selling to himself. But I really think this is a funny number, and there is no way he could have done that. Please give me an example on how this can be done.

What about all the other concepts I mentioned in my post about the numbers being inflated, how does that make it any less valid? Zahara, comments?

p.s. Rhivre, if you read the article, it says he was gonna put the 1200 Trillion buy order all into PLEX.
Darkstar01
Doomheim
#30 - 2016-05-06 18:04:44 UTC  |  Edited by: Darkstar01
Dethmourne Silvermane wrote:
Can somebody ELI5 how he actually claims to make money on this? Is it just that he's paying less in broker fees than other people? He makes it sound like he's making money on broker fees, but that's only ever a sink, even if you have an absolute advantage due to having a lower value of broker fees... you're still only making money off what you can flip them for.


You are right, you are still only making money off what you can flip them for.

He is using the pre-patch broker fee to squeeze the margin, so that people who post buy orders after the patch will have 0% or very little margin. While he still has 3% margin (because his buy orders are placed pre-patch). He was hoping this would allow him to control the market.

But if you want to know whether it worked or not, just take a look at the PLEX market now. The short answer is no.
Zahara Cody
Imperial Corrections Service.
#31 - 2016-05-06 18:38:38 UTC
I'd say there's a reason why probag is the only one in on this and it's not because he's smarter than everyone else.

Hating is free, that's why poor people do it the best.
Darkstar01
Doomheim
#32 - 2016-05-06 19:46:04 UTC  |  Edited by: Darkstar01
Zahara Cody wrote:
How darkstar became a trillionaire is beyond me.


Well, I don't have a long story, but I do have a screenshot showing my latest venture :)

http://imgur.com/l0b4n3m

And this doesn't include about 700 Bil in BPO's.

At this point, I don't really care how it turns out anymore. I started accumulating a year before the Citadels were announced, so my average cost is probably lower than most salvage holders.

Other speculators are welcome to liquidate when they see this (or refrain from accumulating), it will help balance out the price faster :P

The economy will take care of the rest, when all the research and manufacturing switch over to Citadels. It's out of my hands now, and it will take forever to liquidate all of this anyway.
Zahara Cody
Imperial Corrections Service.
#33 - 2016-05-06 20:48:39 UTC
Best of luck salvaging your credibility.

Hating is free, that's why poor people do it the best.
Darkstar01
Doomheim
#34 - 2016-05-06 21:13:43 UTC
Zahara Cody wrote:
Best of luck salvaging your credibility.


what do you mean?
Zahara Cody
Imperial Corrections Service.
#35 - 2016-05-06 23:25:59 UTC
Darkstar01 wrote:
Zahara Cody wrote:
Best of luck salvaging your credibility.


what do you mean?


I was expecting someone with your knowledge of what AT ships trade for to actually own a few.

Hating is free, that's why poor people do it the best.
Darkstar01
Doomheim
#36 - 2016-05-07 01:38:00 UTC  |  Edited by: Darkstar01
Zahara Cody wrote:
Darkstar01 wrote:
Zahara Cody wrote:
Best of luck salvaging your credibility.


what do you mean?


I was expecting someone with your knowledge of what AT ships trade for to actually own a few.


I don't own any, because I don't believed in the "value" that's being thrown around on the forums. And this "value" is too arbitrary.

Because the transactions are not open-market, there is only a "perception" of price. I am sure this "perception" is being manipulated, because the market is not transparent, so it is easy to manipulate.

I just know that when there is actually some market transparency, like when you or Big Lynx try to sell AT ships on the contract system for 100 Bil, they always expire without any buyers (except for the Cambion that Big Lynx just sold).
Zahara Cody
Imperial Corrections Service.
#37 - 2016-05-07 01:40:52 UTC
Darkstar01 wrote:
Zahara Cody wrote:
Darkstar01 wrote:
Zahara Cody wrote:
Best of luck salvaging your credibility.


what do you mean?


I was expecting someone with your knowledge of what AT ships trade for to actually own a few.


I don't own any, because I don't believed in the "value" that's being thrown around on the forums.

There is only a "perception" of price, because the transactions are not open-market, and that "perception" is easily manipulated because the market is not transparent.

I just know that when there is actually some market transparency, like when you or Big Lynx try to sell AT ships on the contract system for 100 Bil, they always expire without any buyers (except for the Cambion that Big Lynx just sold).


I welcome you to actually try trading them before you throw your uninformed opinion around.

Hating is free, that's why poor people do it the best.
Darkstar01
Doomheim
#38 - 2016-05-07 01:47:10 UTC
Alright, I might actually try it, eventually once I get all this junk liquidated.

But I am really uncomfortable, for even spending 60 billion on a ship (which is currently being "valued" at 100 bil), because honestly to me, it's not even worth 40 billion.
Zahara Cody
Imperial Corrections Service.
#39 - 2016-05-07 01:50:23 UTC
Darkstar01 wrote:
Alright, I might actually try it, eventually once I get all this junk liquidated.

But I am really uncomfortable, for even spending 60 billion on a ship (which is currently being "valued" at 100 bil), because honestly to me, it's not even worth 40 billion.


Here's an idea... the market for these ships doesn't reside in your head... I'd buy any AT ship for 60 bil.

Hating is free, that's why poor people do it the best.
Darkstar01
Doomheim
#40 - 2016-05-07 02:08:06 UTC
Zahara Cody wrote:
Darkstar01 wrote:
Alright, I might actually try it, eventually once I get all this junk liquidated.

But I am really uncomfortable, for even spending 60 billion on a ship (which is currently being "valued" at 100 bil), because honestly to me, it's not even worth 40 billion.


Here's an idea... the market for these ships doesn't reside in your head... I'd buy any AT ship for 60 bil.


I'll take your advice into consideration, you have a point, and seem adamant enough about it.
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