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The forthcoming Skill Injector price bubble

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Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#41 - 2016-02-12 01:01:29 UTC
Oh god this thread is hilarious now.

Cruciflex - if it wasn't your friend buying and stripping these characters it would be someone else.

I do think there is overproduction of skill injectors at the moment and they will fall hard in price - well below the prices the fundamentals indicate would be a stable long-term price.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com
Jerry T Pepridge
Meta Game Analysis and Investment INC.
#42 - 2016-02-12 01:31:44 UTC
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
Oh god this thread is hilarious now.

Cruciflex - if it wasn't your friend buying and stripping these characters it would be someone else.

I do think there is overproduction of skill injectors at the moment and they will fall hard in price - well below the prices the fundamentals indicate would be a stable long-term price.


havent logged in for a few weeks, mind telling the total volume / daily volume per day figures?

@JerryTPepridge
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#43 - 2016-02-12 02:57:20 UTC
Jerry T Pepridge wrote:
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
Oh god this thread is hilarious now.

Cruciflex - if it wasn't your friend buying and stripping these characters it would be someone else.

I do think there is overproduction of skill injectors at the moment and they will fall hard in price - well below the prices the fundamentals indicate would be a stable long-term price.


havent logged in for a few weeks, mind telling the total volume / daily volume per day figures?


I think Dr. Mibbles posted something back up stream....

And yes, this thread just turned hilarious, and look who stopped posting once he was outed. What a complete tool.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
ISD Dorrim Barstorlode
ISD Community Communications Liaisons
ISD Alliance
#44 - 2016-02-12 03:07:34 UTC
Removed some off topic posts. Keep it civil, thanks.

ISD Dorrim Barstorlode

Senior Lead

Community Communication Liaisons (CCLs)

Interstellar Services Department
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#45 - 2016-02-12 04:35:50 UTC
Well Mr. Cruciflex sure did make a mess of things...which is too bad as I a couple of my deleted posts had some good points and I purposefully avoided quoting the ****** for precisely that reason...

The point is that the character bazaar and the SP market will have positive feedbacks. The price of characters will likely rise due to the SP market. Some people were hoping to cash in on that, and IMO Cruciflex was one of them and he was pissed Dr. Mibbles was "ruining" his profits.

So selling a character with over 5 million SP and definitely over 50 million will see an increase in the price of such characters. Some players--e.g. Cruciflex--were hoping to cash in on this. But such a market is short lived as competition and arbitrage drive such profits towards zero.

Basically, the market was working as intended and some player were butthurt that other players were posting and trying to accelrate such a process.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
Jerry T Pepridge
Meta Game Analysis and Investment INC.
#46 - 2016-02-12 05:08:12 UTC
my posts were out of line, thanks for deleting mods, that guy really got my goat.

on topic, ill try and log in & analyse the market aver the weekend. from what im reading, ill likely hold onto my AURUM.

@JerryTPepridge
Mazare Mircea
Beyond Divinity Inc
Shadow Cartel
#47 - 2016-02-12 07:46:53 UTC
The price of the injector i think long term will settle for slightly over 700m, and will make it's way to 800m.

Atm it is kept low artificially.
Dr Mibbles
KarmaFleet
Goonswarm Federation
#48 - 2016-02-12 09:34:34 UTC
Teckos Pech wrote:

Basically, the market was working as intended and some player were butthurt that other players were posting and trying to accelrate such a process.


I can understand his frustration, however we all have our positions on the market and we're all inclined to do what is required to help our positions attain a healthy return.

For many of us, 'playing the market' isn't just about buying and selling, but also about information and informing, influencing feelings and opinions. A side benefit is that many of the sellers are grateful for being informed of the market value of their character, so warm feelings all round (SP re-sellers aside).

Market Update:

The over-supply of extractors continues. Demand for injectors remains balanced and appears to be increasing, buy orders and average prices have increased over the last 12 hours.

ArrowSkill Extractors
Units for Sale: 6,257 (+4%)
Units on Buy Orders: 1,557 (-20%)
Sell price: 293m (-4%)

ArrowSkill Injectors
Units for Sale: 2,648 (+2%)
Units on Buy Orders: 4,139 (+89%)
Sell price: 641m (+2%)
Ruvin
Amarr Empire
#49 - 2016-02-12 10:11:12 UTC
i missed all the drama :(

Opportunities multiply as they are seized.
Mazare Mircea
Beyond Divinity Inc
Shadow Cartel
#50 - 2016-02-12 12:22:48 UTC
2 weeks time, the Injector will definitely gain 10-12% over now.

Despite there being an overabundance in extractors the price drops but not fast, very slowl; the source of some of these extractors will just get more expensive after the 16th.
It will take time to adjust, but it will go up.

As for the SP price, ppl seem to accept the 340m / 500k sp area.
Bumblefck
Kerensky Initiatives
#51 - 2016-02-12 13:29:09 UTC
Ruvin wrote:
i missed all the drama :(




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Bumble's Space Log
KUMAR OK
Perkone
Caldari State
#52 - 2016-02-12 14:22:06 UTC
I thought this forum was for discussing the market?
Dr Mibbles
KarmaFleet
Goonswarm Federation
#53 - 2016-02-12 15:57:59 UTC
KUMAR OK wrote:
I thought this forum was for discussing the market?


Yes! Let us return to normality.

Arrow Skill Extractor prices have hit a new, record low in Jita as supply continues to outstrip demand
Arrow Currently they have dipped to 289m per extractor
Arrow This is however matched by a decline in PLEX values, from 1.280bn yesterday to 1.238bn today

Skill Injector prices continue to hold, climbing slightly as supply and demand remain approximately in balance.
Ruvin
Amarr Empire
#54 - 2016-02-12 16:23:20 UTC
if the profit gets above 10 20% i will convert all my alts in farms. Atm they train "probably usefull stuff in distant future" but for some profit i can put everything on hold.

Opportunities multiply as they are seized.
Jerry T Pepridge
Meta Game Analysis and Investment INC.
#55 - 2016-02-12 22:59:08 UTC
Dr Mibbles wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:

Basically, the market was working as intended and some player were butthurt that other players were posting and trying to accelrate such a process.


I can understand his frustration, however we all have our positions on the market and we're all inclined to do what is required to help our positions attain a healthy return.

For many of us, 'playing the market' isn't just about buying and selling, but also about information and informing, influencing feelings and opinions. A side benefit is that many of the sellers are grateful for being informed of the market value of their character, so warm feelings all round (SP re-sellers aside).

Market Update:

The over-supply of extractors continues. Demand for injectors remains balanced and appears to be increasing, buy orders and average prices have increased over the last 12 hours.

ArrowSkill Extractors
Units for Sale: 6,257 (+4%)
Units on Buy Orders: 1,557 (-20%)
Sell price: 293m (-4%)

ArrowSkill Injectors
Units for Sale: 2,648 (+2%)
Units on Buy Orders: 4,139 (+89%)
Sell price: 641m (+2%)


as expected, waaaaaay too much volume

thanks for the update

@JerryTPepridge
rtodeto
champaign
#56 - 2016-02-13 20:08:16 UTC
Dr Mibbles wrote:
KUMAR OK wrote:
I thought this forum was for discussing the market?


Yes! Let us return to normality.

Arrow Skill Extractor prices have hit a new, record low in Jita as supply continues to outstrip demand
Arrow Currently they have dipped to 289m per extractor
Arrow This is however matched by a decline in PLEX values, from 1.280bn yesterday to 1.238bn today

Skill Injector prices continue to hold, climbing slightly as supply and demand remain approximately in balance.




skill injector

jita

2016.02.09 00.00.00

quantity - 36344
avg - 657m

2016.02.10 00.00.00

quantity - 33282
avg - 645m

2016.02.11 00.00.00

quantity - 23189
avg - 640m


2016.02.12 00.00.00

quantity - 21297
avg - 632m
rtodeto
champaign
#57 - 2016-02-14 09:41:50 UTC
jita

skill injector

2016.02.13 00:00:00

quantity - 22002
avg - 619m


skill extractor

2016.02.13 00:00:00

quantity - 20848
avg - 286m

plex

2016.02.13 00:00:00

quantity - 8249
avg - 1199m

skill injector - skill extractor = 333m
Dr Mibbles
KarmaFleet
Goonswarm Federation
#58 - 2016-02-18 10:38:45 UTC  |  Edited by: Dr Mibbles
Calling the turn in the market today. Buy orders of Skill Injectors (5,700) now hugely outweighing sell orders (1,300).

Sharp contraction in Skill Injector supply and rapidly rising prices - up to 670m in Amarr and 650m in Jita, with little new stock coming on the market to settle prices back down. People are playing the 0.01isk game, but there are no substantial supply buffers to prevent prices escalating quickly.

It will only take a few more days of this for prices to escalate beyond people's expectations.

Of course there could be a new supply shock if people have been hoarding waiting for certain 'sell points' (700m, 750m, etc). Let's see what happens. The fun starts here. I wouldn't be surprised if injectors were over 800m by the end of the week.
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#59 - 2016-02-18 16:33:48 UTC
Dr Mibbles wrote:
Calling the turn in the market today. Buy orders of Skill Injectors (5,700) now hugely outweighing sell orders (1,300).

Sharp contraction in Skill Injector supply and rapidly rising prices - up to 670m in Amarr and 650m in Jita, with little new stock coming on the market to settle prices back down. People are playing the 0.01isk game, but there are no substantial supply buffers to prevent prices escalating quickly.

It will only take a few more days of this for prices to escalate beyond people's expectations.

Of course there could be a new supply shock if people have been hoarding waiting for certain 'sell points' (700m, 750m, etc). Let's see what happens. The fun starts here. I wouldn't be surprised if injectors were over 800m by the end of the week.


This will be an interesting thing to watch. Rising prices can cause people to buy on the expectation of future price increases which lead to further price increase....but at a certain point the selling starts and the bubble bursts....

Of course, given the connection of PLEX to AUR and ISK we have a way of determining the intrinsic value of SP injectors, IMO. I see a final/long run price of about 800 million with the price tracking that of PLEX as well as being the current "intrinsic value" price.

Some suggested readings:

Smith, Vernon L.; Suchanek, Gerry L.; Williams, Arlington W. (1988). "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets". Econometrica 56 (5): 1119–1151


Caginalp, G.; Balenovich, D. (1999). "Asset flow and momentum: deterministic and stochastic equations". Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 357 (1758): 2119–2133

Caginalp, G.; Porter, D.; Smith, V.L. (1998). "Initial cash/asset ratio and asset prices: an experimental study". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 95 (2): 756–761

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
rtodeto
champaign
#60 - 2016-02-21 10:10:08 UTC
If you are a >80m skillpoint character , which dont need any additional skillpoints, did the skllpoint trading change made this a freetoplay game for them ? (farming skillpoints then selling this skillpoints to buy plex to buy gametime) And if so, how much would this cost ccp in subscription fees ? And how long before ccp intervenes to remove this situation ?