These forums have been archived and are now read-only.

The new forums are live and can be found at https://forums.eveonline.com/

Market Discussions

 
  • Topic is locked indefinitely.
123Next pageLast page
 

The forthcoming Skill Injector price bubble

First post
Author
Previous Topic Next Topic
Dr Mibbles
KarmaFleet
Goonswarm Federation
#1 - 2016-02-09 16:38:41 UTC
A common response to Skill Injector price speculation is: The price won't get too high, because people will set up farms of SP producing alts which will stabilize the cost of SP.

This is true, but what is also true is that you cannot farm SP from a character with less than 5.5m skillpoints. So there is only so much 'spare SP' available at any given moment, however demand for such SP is almost without limit. Even if people set up SP farming alts the moment it was confirmed, we're still months away from that source of SP coming online and entering the market.

So, witness the market for injectors today. Lots of people logging in to make a quick profit on unwanted mining SP, etc. Lot's of injectors on the market. A balance between supply and demand.

How long can this last, even in the short term? These market conditions are exceptional and temporary. In the coming weeks and months, before significant additional SP comes through from SP farming alts, we're going to be in a period where demand will almost certainly outstrip supply. What price instant gratification?

I predict that after the first few volatile days of people dumping unwanted SP, we're about to enter an almighty price bubble as supply rapidly contracts while demand remains undiminished.

tl;dr - buy skill injectors today/tomorrow, or wait 3+ months, because we're about to enter a massive price bubble as demand outstrips new supply due to alts requiring 5.5m SP to farm
Aoi Litvyak
Doomheim
#2 - 2016-02-09 17:18:40 UTC
What are the cost of them in jita now? I saw the injectors go for 625M as the cheapest before prices were pushed up to 700ish.
Nef Chi
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#3 - 2016-02-09 17:39:26 UTC  |  Edited by: Nef Chi
Aoi Litvyak wrote:
What are the cost of them in jita now? I saw the injectors go for 625M as the cheapest before prices were pushed up to 700ish.


It has been slowly dropping, 664m currently.

EDIT: 614 already and seems to be dropping still
Droidster
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#4 - 2016-02-09 18:36:57 UTC
The market has priced it in already.

Adam Smith is always one step ahead of you.
Ria Nieyli
Nieyli Enterprises
SL33PERS
#5 - 2016-02-09 19:15:37 UTC  |  Edited by: Ria Nieyli
I think you're overestimating how much demand there's going to be past the initial market boom. Should stabilise around 2/3 of PLEX price, then slowly keeps rising as PLEX does.
Damjan Fox
Fox Industries and Exploration
#6 - 2016-02-09 19:57:30 UTC
Quote:
Even if people set up SP farming alts the moment it was confirmed, we're still months away from that source of SP coming online and entering the market.

There are already thousand of Alts over 5.5 mil SP, which can be used for this right now.

Proposal: >>> New Inventory / Item Hangar <<<
Dr Mibbles
KarmaFleet
Goonswarm Federation
#7 - 2016-02-09 20:11:29 UTC
Damjan Fox wrote:
Quote:
Even if people set up SP farming alts the moment it was confirmed, we're still months away from that source of SP coming online and entering the market.

There are already thousand of Alts over 5.5 mil SP, which can be used for this right now.


This is my point.

For 10 years, skillpoints have been building up. Today, people can sell them for the first time.

So there is a flood of supply on the market. However, this can only ever happen once. Next week, supply will not be a flood, it will be a trickle. Demand won't go away. Prices will skyrocket.
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#8 - 2016-02-10 00:36:13 UTC
Dr Mibbles wrote:
A common response to Skill Injector price speculation is: The price won't get too high, because people will set up farms of SP producing alts which will stabilize the cost of SP.

This is true, but what is also true is that you cannot farm SP from a character with less than 5.5m skillpoints. So there is only so much 'spare SP' available at any given moment, however demand for such SP is almost without limit. Even if people set up SP farming alts the moment it was confirmed, we're still months away from that source of SP coming online and entering the market.

So, witness the market for injectors today. Lots of people logging in to make a quick profit on unwanted mining SP, etc. Lot's of injectors on the market. A balance between supply and demand.

How long can this last, even in the short term? These market conditions are exceptional and temporary. In the coming weeks and months, before significant additional SP comes through from SP farming alts, we're going to be in a period where demand will almost certainly outstrip supply. What price instant gratification?

I predict that after the first few volatile days of people dumping unwanted SP, we're about to enter an almighty price bubble as supply rapidly contracts while demand remains undiminished.

tl;dr - buy skill injectors today/tomorrow, or wait 3+ months, because we're about to enter a massive price bubble as demand outstrips new supply due to alts requiring 5.5m SP to farm


Why is demand without limit?

Is the demand for Ferrari's without limit? How about private jets? What about a house in Pebble Beach? Why is demand not without limit? Oh yeah...prices. Prices influence both demand and supply.

Could there be a price bubble? Maybe, but I'm a bit skeptical, but here is how it would work. If the initial price is too low, then what could happen is people buy them up put the price on an upward trend. People note this trend and jump on the band wagon. Soon you have a self-sustaining trend....until it isn't and the price collapses.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#9 - 2016-02-10 01:15:02 UTC
Demand will decline somewhat.

EVE has a fair number of trillionaires. Some percentage of these people are undoubtedly looking to 'perfect' their main character and willing to spend 20b, 100b or even a quarter trillion to do so.

This is a once-off demand spike too.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com
Jerry T Pepridge
Meta Game Analysis and Investment INC.
#10 - 2016-02-10 01:45:55 UTC
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
Demand will decline somewhat.

EVE has a fair number of trillionaires. Some percentage of these people are undoubtedly looking to 'perfect' their main character and willing to spend 20b, 100b or even a quarter trillion to do so.

This is a once-off demand spike too.



we didnt get rich throwing money down the toilet for useless SP

@JerryTPepridge
Vibiana
Frontier Trading Company
#11 - 2016-02-10 04:49:57 UTC
Jerry T Pepridge wrote:
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
Demand will decline somewhat.

EVE has a fair number of trillionaires. Some percentage of these people are undoubtedly looking to 'perfect' their main character and willing to spend 20b, 100b or even a quarter trillion to do so.

This is a once-off demand spike too.



we didnt get rich throwing money down the toilet for useless SP


Whould you pledge 20b of yours on that?
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#12 - 2016-02-10 05:20:42 UTC
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
Demand will decline somewhat.

EVE has a fair number of trillionaires. Some percentage of these people are undoubtedly looking to 'perfect' their main character and willing to spend 20b, 100b or even a quarter trillion to do so.

This is a once-off demand spike too.



Why?

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#13 - 2016-02-10 05:21:36 UTC
Vibiana wrote:
Jerry T Pepridge wrote:
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
Demand will decline somewhat.

EVE has a fair number of trillionaires. Some percentage of these people are undoubtedly looking to 'perfect' their main character and willing to spend 20b, 100b or even a quarter trillion to do so.

This is a once-off demand spike too.



we didnt get rich throwing money down the toilet for useless SP


Whould you pledge 20b of yours on that?


Yeah, because getting a perfect character is going to do....what?

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
Gilbaron
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#14 - 2016-02-10 06:46:39 UTC
i really wonder how the prices would look like right now had ccp not intervened massively in the plex market yesterday.

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#15 - 2016-02-10 07:37:13 UTC
Gilbaron wrote:
i really wonder how the prices would look like right now had ccp not intervened massively in the plex market yesterday.




Based on what?

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
Dr Mibbles
KarmaFleet
Goonswarm Federation
#16 - 2016-02-10 07:49:31 UTC  |  Edited by: Dr Mibbles
Teckos Pech wrote:


Why is demand without limit?

Is the demand for Ferrari's without limit? How about private jets? What about a house in Pebble Beach? Why is demand not without limit? Oh yeah...prices. Prices influence both demand and supply.

Could there be a price bubble? Maybe, but I'm a bit skeptical, but here is how it would work. If the initial price is too low, then what could happen is people buy them up put the price on an upward trend. People note this trend and jump on the band wagon. Soon you have a self-sustaining trend....until it isn't and the price collapses.


It's a lot easier to make ISK in EVE if you are motivated to do so than in real life, so the ferrari comparison doesn't work. Grinding a wormhole for half a day to earn an extra few billion is well within the capacity of most players.

But I do take your point.

For me, it's like this:

ArrowDay 01: Demand Level: 100 // Supply Level: 100
ArrowDay 07: Demand Level: 90 // Supply Level: 70
ArrowDay 14: Demand Level: 80 // Supply Level: 50
ArrowDay 28: Demand Level: 75 // Supply Level: 30
ArrowDay 56: Demand Level: 70 // Supply Level: 20

After this period I expect skill farming alts to start extracting in sufficient numbers to meet the demand.

My feeling is that this temporary imbalance between supply and demand has the potential to generate a huge bubble, because no matter how high prices get, you cannot extract SP that isn't there to meet the demand. People become emotionally attached to their characters and won't extract SP they don't want to. This market is not going to be driven by rational market players, but by impatience and emotion. Just like Dutch tulips all that time ago.
Ria Nieyli
Nieyli Enterprises
SL33PERS
#17 - 2016-02-10 08:10:27 UTC  |  Edited by: Ria Nieyli
Dr Mibbles wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:


Why is demand without limit?

Is the demand for Ferrari's without limit? How about private jets? What about a house in Pebble Beach? Why is demand not without limit? Oh yeah...prices. Prices influence both demand and supply.

Could there be a price bubble? Maybe, but I'm a bit skeptical, but here is how it would work. If the initial price is too low, then what could happen is people buy them up put the price on an upward trend. People note this trend and jump on the band wagon. Soon you have a self-sustaining trend....until it isn't and the price collapses.


It's a lot easier to make ISK in EVE if you are motivated to do so than in real life, so the ferrari comparison doesn't work. Grinding a wormhole for half a day to earn an extra few billion is well within the capacity of most players.

But I do take your point.

For me, it's like this:

ArrowDay 01: Demand Level: 100 // Supply Level: 100
ArrowDay 07: Demand Level: 90 // Supply Level: 70
ArrowDay 14: Demand Level: 80 // Supply Level: 50
ArrowDay 28: Demand Level: 75 // Supply Level: 30
ArrowDay 56: Demand Level: 70 // Supply Level: 20

After this period I expect skill farming alts to start extracting in sufficient numbers to meet the demand.

My feeling is that this temporary imbalance between supply and demand has the potential to generate a huge bubble, because no matter how high prices get, you cannot extract SP that isn't there to meet the demand. People become emotionally attached to their characters and won't extract SP they don't want to. This market is not going to be driven by rational market players, but by impatience and emotion. Just like Dutch tulips all that time ago.


Except that demand will be frontloaded. As characters age, there's less pressure to buy skill points. The people that want sp right here and right now are already buying. It will taper off. Meanwhile, entrepreneurs will be gutting cheap characters from the bazaar and flooding the market with cheap injectors stabilising the supply.

Don't believe me? Check this out: http://puu.sh/n2kaz/ad988266a5.png 16b applied, 5b lost in the proccess. That's 76% efficiency, which means that the majority of people that used injectors were below 50m sp. And those people won't be using them again.
Gilbaron
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#18 - 2016-02-10 08:18:21 UTC
Teckos Pech wrote:
Gilbaron wrote:
i really wonder how the prices would look like right now had ccp not intervened massively in the plex market yesterday.




Based on what?


there were 11k plex traded yesterday in late EU. that's 3.5 times the normal amount. there must have been something going on.
Ria Nieyli
Nieyli Enterprises
SL33PERS
#19 - 2016-02-10 08:21:43 UTC
Gilbaron wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
Gilbaron wrote:
i really wonder how the prices would look like right now had ccp not intervened massively in the plex market yesterday.




Based on what?


there were 11k plex traded yesterday in late EU. that's 3.5 times the normal amount. there must have been something going on.


People dumping PLEX on the market to be able to afford injectors.
Ruvin
Amarr Empire
#20 - 2016-02-10 10:29:48 UTC
the supply is WAAAAAAY above the demand. i expect month's of underpriced SP, before it runs out and even's out with farms, which people have ready long before this was introduced

Opportunities multiply as they are seized.
123Next pageLast page