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Kill mail drop question 0% and 100% Drop
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Eternus8lux8lucis
Guardians of the Gate
RAZOR Alliance
#1 - 2016-01-02 12:36:27 UTC
Has anyone seen a killmail with either of these % in game ever? And I dont mean just loot but all modules as well. Statistical probability means it will eventually occur so I am curious if anyone knows any actual examples.

Dev help would be awesome as you guys might be able to do a search for it in the database we cannot.

Just a curiousity question.

Have you heard anything I've said?

You said it's all circling the drain, the whole universe. Right?

That's right.

Had to end sometime.
Rawketsled
Generic Corp Name
#2 - 2016-01-02 12:50:47 UTC
I've seen it on occassion.

Might have been because there wasn't much in the cargohold though.

Can't supply KMs, sorry.
King Aires
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#3 - 2016-01-02 13:33:58 UTC
Blow up a plex hauling noob ship and most of the time it is a 0% drop. Blow up a mineral hauler loaded with pyrite and you have no way to scoop and its usually 100% drop.

Welcome to eve.
Eternus8lux8lucis
Guardians of the Gate
RAZOR Alliance
#4 - 2016-01-02 14:20:45 UTC
The point wasnt the value or what drops only the statistical probability. I like numbers and math. Yes yes I am a nerd.Twisted

Then a follow up question would be the actual ratio, standard deviations etc, of these outliers. You know nerd stuff.

Have you heard anything I've said?

You said it's all circling the drain, the whole universe. Right?

That's right.

Had to end sometime.
Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat
Working Stiffs
#5 - 2016-01-03 02:42:05 UTC  |  Edited by: Tau Cabalander
Eternus8lux8lucis wrote:
The point wasnt the value or what drops only the statistical probability. I like numbers and math. Yes yes I am a nerd.Twisted

Then a follow up question would be the actual ratio, standard deviations etc, of these outliers. You know nerd stuff.

Every item stack has a 50% chance to drop.

Feel free to explore zkillboard.com

CCP Fozzie wrote:
... having the same 50% chance to drop that governs normal loot drop mechanics.
Nat Silverguard
Aideron Robotics
Aideron Robotics.
#6 - 2016-01-03 05:26:26 UTC
instead of asking others, why not work on them yourself?

if you really like numbers then you should be the one telling us those stuff/information and not the other way around, right? Roll

Just Add Water
Mara Pahrdi
The Order of Anoyia
#7 - 2016-01-03 07:33:45 UTC
Nat Silverguard wrote:
instead of asking others, why not work on them yourself?

if you really like numbers then you should be the one telling us those stuff/information and not the other way around, right? Roll

This being EVE the only result will be someone telling him his sample size is too small for any conclusions Lol.

Remove standings and insurance.
Trevor Dalech
Nobody in Local
Of Sound Mind
#8 - 2016-01-03 08:27:09 UTC

Eternus8lux8lucis wrote:
The point wasnt the value or what drops only the statistical probability. I like numbers and math. Yes yes I am a nerd.Twisted

Then a follow up question would be the actual ratio, standard deviations etc, of these outliers. You know nerd stuff.


I believe the actual ratio for a single item dropping is 50% (with some items, such as PLEX, being an exception.)


If so, then the amount X of items dropping from a kill mail containing a total of N items will have a binomial distribution. The necessary formulas can be looked up in any textbook on probability. In this case, the expected amount of items that will be E(X) = 0.5N with a variance of Var(X) = 0.25N and thus a standard deviation of 0.5 sqrt(N).

The probability of getting either none of items (X=0) or all of them (X=N) is highest when N is lowest. Some ships will have only one item fit (cyno noob ships for example) and shooting these will always result in either a 0% or a 100% drop. There is no other option. So yes, both 0% and 100% drops happen quite often.


If you truly want to test the hypothesis that the drop rate is 50% I believe it is possible to get an XML file containing all kills in a certain timeframe from zkillboard, but it's been a while since I experimented with that. From there you can do the statistics, please let us know your results.
Eternus8lux8lucis
Guardians of the Gate
RAZOR Alliance
#9 - 2016-01-03 08:38:40 UTC
Tau Cabalander wrote:
Eternus8lux8lucis wrote:
The point wasnt the value or what drops only the statistical probability. I like numbers and math. Yes yes I am a nerd.Twisted

Then a follow up question would be the actual ratio, standard deviations etc, of these outliers. You know nerd stuff.

Every item stack has a 50% chance to drop.

Feel free to explore zkillboard.com

CCP Fozzie wrote:
... having the same 50% chance to drop that governs normal loot drop mechanics.

See I realize this, yet given statistical probability that means that irregardless of how many stacks or items there are there will always be a chance at 0 and 100, they are outliers, in the probability scale as 50% is the mean. So if you take a bell curve youll see a smattering of results with the most being within this mean, most being within standard deviations, etc. 0 and 100 will not be common. Hence its more a dev question, or we can steal all the data from zkill, even though its not a truly complete data set.

But yet what Im asking is for examples that OTHERS have seen or know of. And by the lack of evidence that people are showing, the only one being anecdotal that "I saw it once" but cant come up with any km itself. Then it leads me to wonder further about the player base itself.



So yes I can scrape and run a nifty lil program, but thats not what Im asking for is it?

Have you heard anything I've said?

You said it's all circling the drain, the whole universe. Right?

That's right.

Had to end sometime.
Eternus8lux8lucis
Guardians of the Gate
RAZOR Alliance
#10 - 2016-01-03 08:40:48 UTC
Trevor Dalech wrote:

Eternus8lux8lucis wrote:
The point wasnt the value or what drops only the statistical probability. I like numbers and math. Yes yes I am a nerd.Twisted

Then a follow up question would be the actual ratio, standard deviations etc, of these outliers. You know nerd stuff.


I believe the actual ratio for a single item dropping is 50% (with some items, such as PLEX, being an exception.)


If so, then the amount X of items dropping from a kill mail containing a total of N items will have a binomial distribution. The necessary formulas can be looked up in any textbook on probability. In this case, the expected amount of items that will be E(X) = 0.5N with a variance of Var(X) = 0.25N and thus a standard deviation of 0.5 sqrt(N).

The probability of getting either none of items (X=0) or all of them (X=N) is highest when N is lowest. Some ships will have only one item fit (cyno noob ships for example) and shooting these will always result in either a 0% or a 100% drop. There is no other option. So yes, both 0% and 100% drops happen quite often.


If you truly want to test the hypothesis that the drop rate is 50% I believe it is possible to get an XML file containing all kills in a certain timeframe from zkillboard, but it's been a while since I experimented with that. From there you can do the statistics, please let us know your results.

Yes, but again still not what Im requesting. Also empty ships will always drop 0 as well. Which is what started this entire question in the first place. But its interesting to see how people respond. Nice for understanding the math part. Very well done.

Have you heard anything I've said?

You said it's all circling the drain, the whole universe. Right?

That's right.

Had to end sometime.
Esrevid Nekkeg
Justified and Ancient
#11 - 2016-01-03 11:02:37 UTC
Eternus8lux8lucis wrote:
.. But yet what Im asking is for examples that OTHERS have seen or know of. And by the lack of evidence that people are showing, the only one being anecdotal that "I saw it once" but cant come up with any km itself. Then it leads me to wonder further about the player base itself.

So yes I can scrape and run a nifty lil program, but thats not what Im asking for is it?
No, what you are asking for is essentially others breaking the forum rules by posting killmails. (fyi, rule 36)
And as people did not do so, you are now questioning their credibility.What?

Here I used to have a sig of our old Camper in space. Now it is disregarded as being the wrong format. Looking out the window I see one thing: Nothing wrong with the format of our Camper! Silly CCP......
King Aires
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#12 - 2016-01-03 13:36:56 UTC
A Pod... A Pod has a 100% drop rate from a blown up ship.

Unless it is abandoned in space! Shocked

KEEP CALM AND
TIN FOIL ON!
Sipphakta en Gravonere
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#13 - 2016-01-03 16:41:58 UTC
Trevor Dalech wrote:

I believe the actual ratio for a single item dropping is 50% (with some items, such as PLEX, being an exception.)


Where did you get this information about PLEX having a different drop rate?
King Aires
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#14 - 2016-01-03 17:03:17 UTC
Sipphakta en Gravonere wrote:
Trevor Dalech wrote:

I believe the actual ratio for a single item dropping is 50% (with some items, such as PLEX, being an exception.)


Where did you get this information about PLEX having a different drop rate?



I remember there being something about drop rates being different or controlled to combat potential RMT problems of blowing up ships full of plex.

Convenient excuse if true, because it is in CCP's greatest interest to make Plex disappear after being purchased. But regardless if it has ever been from official sources, you can see anecdotal proof and killmail stats that Plex generally doesn't drop.
Memphis Baas
#15 - 2016-01-03 21:28:34 UTC
Since you persist in asking, it's clearly of importance to you, so I think you should not stop playing and PVP'ing until you see it firsthand. It's a statistical certainty, right? Therefore...