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So... Citadels 4U?

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Droodid
Antec Enterprises
#21 - 2015-10-27 11:40:21 UTC
If you ran it, and it was secured by someone other than you Blink, I'd definitely chuck some ISK at it. Given that you won't be scamming from it, run the numbers and take a bigger cut. I sure as hell wouldn't want to run it regardless, so there will be demand from the more lazy amongst us.
Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
In Tea We Trust
#22 - 2015-10-27 12:02:58 UTC
So the figures we've been given so far are these:

X-Large Citadel

ME Time: 63,000 seconds (17.5 hours)
PE Time: 63,000 seconds (17.5 hours)
Copy Time: 430,000 seconds (119.4 hours = ~5 days)

I'm concerned about the fast speed of copying. Putting out a BPC every 3-4 days in an NPC station is a bit silly.
Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
In Tea We Trust
#23 - 2015-10-27 12:08:03 UTC
CCP have stated they are going to iterate on the copy time. We can't run any useful numbers until they do that.
Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
In Tea We Trust
#24 - 2015-10-27 13:05:26 UTC
CCP Ytterbium wrote:
EvilweaselSA wrote:
CCP Ytterbium wrote:

We can always tweak copy times around, those numbers aren't final, just a first draft. Which number would you have in mind?

Copy time or cost probably should be changed - I think copy time is the big outlier here. You have some idea of how many of these structures you expect will exist but my guess is a few dozen at most in the first year. You shouldn't be able to make many more bpcs than structures intended to be deployed. You need a bpc market of course - not every null alliance can be expected to put up 700b to get their foot in the door - but you've got to have it so the bpcs any one bpo can produce are some fraction of expected demand. With a base build time of 30 days, I'd set copy time to at least 30 days and probably much more - unlike supercapitals, there is no need for you to copy this bpo to produce with it safely. You can produce in-station off the bpo itself so copy time can be a freebie for when the bpo is not in use and can be longer than the production time, even several multiples of it without it being a big problem for the market.

The bpo cost of these is 10x what a titan bpo costs, the bpc copy time is ~1/6th of a titan bpo copy time, and most titan bpcs are pretty cheap. Leviathans are the only one where the bpo isn't glutted but even those run only 1-2b each.

I'd probably make it a several month base copy time so that you get people buying the bpos initially so they can get a leg up on deploying them and use of the bpo is tilted more towards manufacturing than copying. At a minimum producing them and copying them should be roughly the same time or at a minimum at the ratio of t2 bpos. Copying in 1/6th of the time to build it seems way, way off.


Fair point, duly noted, we'll iterate on copy time. Thanks!


So, if CCP Ytterbium goes for at least 30 days of copy time, then I think we've got a good chance of this being workable.

1. We raise the isk.
2. We take pre-orders for BPCs.
3. We buy the BPO
4. We copy for one cycle, so as to take advantage of being among the first to market with an unresearched BPC.
5. We swap between cycles of ME or copying depending on what seems best given the price trends and our pre-order commitments.
6. We sell the BPO.

In and out in 12 months, or earlier if we think things are going to ****.

If things look super lucrative after 12 months, we have options.

We have some advantages over Titans 4U here. When I ran that venture, we bought in to Titan BPOs when they had already been around for a long time. They had already gone through their initial golden age, with unresearched BPCs selling for 20B+ a pop. It wasn't until the second golden age, with massive Titan proliferation, that I managed to sell well researched BPCs at anything approaching that (16B for an ME3 Erebus BPC iirc). Being able to be among the 1st to market will be an advantage I never had with Titans.

There is a big question though: location.

We can't expect Chribba to move a 700B BPO for us. If you handed a 700B BPO to me I would obviously moonwalk out of there with it. So we can't really move the BPO from where we buy it. Are any of the retail stations going to have copy facilities?
Dethmourne Silvermane
Silvermane Holdings LTD
#25 - 2015-10-27 13:07:12 UTC  |  Edited by: Dethmourne Silvermane
Once we have harder numbers on this, I'm pretty sure I'm going to make an offering of this style.

As far as the shares - I agree shares make paying out investors MUCH simpler, but I think my suggestion of separating the shares-providing corporation from any meaningful assets is key.

EDIT: Meant to say this originally but got too post-happy... and if it costs <1b to employ Chribba as lockdown on the collateral that is the BPO, I'd definitely do that. No brainer at that price.

Interested Party (TM)
TheSmokingHertog
Julia's Interstellar Trade Emperium
#26 - 2015-10-27 13:07:53 UTC
If lots are 1 bil, I think 700 bil is not the issue.

"Dogma is kind of like quantum physics, observing the dogma state will change it." ~ CCP Prism X

"Schrödinger's Missile. I dig it." ~ Makari Aeron

-= "Brain in a Box on Singularity" - April 2015 =-
Dethmourne Silvermane
Silvermane Holdings LTD
#27 - 2015-10-27 13:11:16 UTC
BB: Good point regarding moving the BPO.

Interested Party (TM)
Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
In Tea We Trust
#28 - 2015-10-27 13:17:52 UTC
Dethmourne Silvermane wrote:
Once we have harder numbers on this, I'm pretty sure I'm going to make an offering of this style.

Someone has to do it. Things like this beg for a consortium.

Dethmourne Silvermane wrote:
As far as the shares - I agree shares make paying out investors MUCH simpler, but I think my suggestion of separating the shares-providing corporation from any meaningful assets is key.

You would absolutely separate the shares from the assets. That's how it was done with Titans 4U too. There were shares in the investment company that paid out dividends and there were separate shares controlling the lock down.

Obviously, there were some other issues with T4U security. But they were all fixable.
Ruvin
Amarr Empire
#29 - 2015-10-27 13:22:26 UTC
im not really sure , you say titan builders went for BPC .
But it was a more individual thing a "ship" .
Citadels are not so personal , but more of an ally asset . I dont think those who can afford the structures will have problems with the bpo .

Opportunities multiply as they are seized.
Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
In Tea We Trust
#30 - 2015-10-27 13:30:46 UTC
Ruvin wrote:
im not really sure , you say titan builders went for BPC .
But it was a more individual thing a "ship" .
Citadels are not so personal , but more of an ally asset .

Yes, as I said it's the closest comparison I have any experience with, I do agree it's probably apples and oranges.

It's also the case that Titans pretty much have to be built from BPCs at the moment, whereas these stations could be produced directly from the BPO. In fact, it might be worth doing that, rather than copying, depending on how the numbers turn out.

Ruvin wrote:
I dont think those who can afford the structures will have problems with the bpo .

I think a lot of people can afford these 70B structures, but not all of them want a 700B BPO.

We need new numbers on the research, copy and production times before we worry about that. As initially published, these BPOs are terrible and nobody should want to buy them. It can only get better from there.
Ruvin
Amarr Empire
#31 - 2015-10-27 13:54:35 UTC
GL then , i on the other hand expect the small and medium ones to be lucrative , going by quantity , probably reduced profits but a lot higher turn around .

Opportunities multiply as they are seized.
Dethmourne Silvermane
Silvermane Holdings LTD
#32 - 2015-10-27 13:58:27 UTC
Yeah, the reason the XL needs to be in this kind of structure is that 700b is enough that you'll find a number of entities who (perhaps mistakenly) want to build one, but simply cannot reasonably sink 700b into a BPO.

Interested Party (TM)
Dethmourne Silvermane
Silvermane Holdings LTD
#33 - 2015-10-27 14:13:13 UTC
Aight, initial "here are my thoughts on how I'd run this" post is up. beat the **** out of it with holes kthx

Interested Party (TM)
Angelica Everstar
#34 - 2015-10-27 14:32:49 UTC
My plan was to offer a bond of 650b at 1.5%, with the BPO as collateral.
Chribba, buying and holding it.
I would cover the last 50b, and interest payments from my own pocket. Any profit or loss would be my gamble.
This would be a long term bond of cause.


Alternative. The profits and cost are shared on share holders, with me taking 1% of the profit, for caretaking, providing the research char and so on.


IF you are going to do a new "T4U", I will not. Out of respect and not wanting to start in direct competition with some of my follow MDs, that I respect.



Issues I foresee.
BPO location (you mentioned)
Too many competitors for a limited market
Chribba not wishing to take part

I would prefer option one, as there seems to be a lot of investor for LONG term bonds.
Also due to it would give me a lot less admin work :)

§ Current Bond AE09 1 Trillion / Acc. 4,5t ISK

ƒ Want to become a better trader ?

¢ Pls help support EVEs charities!

@EveEntrepreneur
Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
In Tea We Trust
#35 - 2015-10-27 14:46:04 UTC
Angelica Everstar wrote:
My plan was to offer a bond of 650b at 1.5%, with the BPO as collateral.
Chribba, buying and holding it.
I would cover the last 50b, and interest payments from my own pocket. Any profit or loss would be my gamble.

That's the other approach. I just don't find fixed returns very exciting.
Dethmourne Silvermane
Silvermane Holdings LTD
#36 - 2015-10-27 15:07:11 UTC
Fixed returns are dead boring for a market where your return could swing wildly.

Interested Party (TM)
Magnu Stormhawk
#37 - 2015-10-27 15:45:57 UTC
You still owe me 4 bil from the last time.

But meh, I'd probably be in again :P
Dethmourne Silvermane
Silvermane Holdings LTD
#38 - 2015-10-27 16:03:08 UTC
Magnu Stormhawk wrote:
You still owe me 4 bil from the last time.

But meh, I'd probably be in again :P


Me? I thought I'd paid everybody out in full when I pawned off Dethmourne. My recordkeeping was not so great back then as I was trying to keep notes in-game, rather than using Google Docs like I do now.

Interested Party (TM)
Angelica Everstar
#39 - 2015-10-27 16:27:37 UTC
Fixed returns are boring - but I hear some people like that Blink

§ Current Bond AE09 1 Trillion / Acc. 4,5t ISK

ƒ Want to become a better trader ?

¢ Pls help support EVEs charities!

@EveEntrepreneur
Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
In Tea We Trust
#40 - 2015-10-27 17:06:58 UTC  |  Edited by: Bad Bobby
Angelica Everstar wrote:
Fixed returns are boring - but I hear some people like that Blink

Yeah, I think you are right there.

Do you see any value in partnership?

Do you think we could raise 1300B+ between us or gain any benefit from sharing the workload?

My main concern is taking on another project like this for 1+ years when I know exactly what I'll be letting myself in for, which amusingly is probably why so many people are asking me to do it.
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