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Is the chance of an escalation too high?

Author
FT Diomedes
The Graduates
#1 - 2015-09-20 07:26:32 UTC
Simple question, but one that I am sure will result in some very contentious opinions...

It is my opinion, based on running lots of escalations and doing lots of exploration, that the current chance of getting an escalation from an anomaly is too high.

In my opinion, the increased number of escalations, combined with the decrease in overall numbers of people on the server, has resulted in a glut of Deadspace modules on the market. Which in turn has depressed the market for those modules. Additionally, it has hurt the explorers particularly hard vis-a-vis those running anomalies in relatively secure space.

I would like to see CCP lower the chance for an anomaly to lead to an escalation.

Agree or disagree?

CCP should add more NPC 0.0 space to open it up and liven things up: the Stepping Stones project.

Dato Koppla
Neuronix
#2 - 2015-09-20 08:09:33 UTC
Well the over supply of deadspace modules on the market isn't only attributable to escalations. Regular DEDs are also a big contributing factor and the greatly lowered activity in nullsec probably means that farming DEDs in null has become much easier than it once was.

Personally I enjoy the low prices of DED modules because if prices were to go up I wouldn't be able to slap PIth X-Type boosters on everything =P Obviously my opinion is greatly biased but I do happen to run Sansha/Blood DEDs in lowsec occasionally and the prices of these modules haven't suffered as badly as Guristas modules have so it isn't very bad. Honestly it's mostly Guristas modules that are experiencing the biggest hit.

The big drop in price in Guristas modules have been going on for quite awhile now, even before the whole grr FozzieSov loss of players. I remember when I first started doing DEDs in Black Rise Pithum A-Type Medium Shield Boosters were like over a bil compared to 300~mil or so you get now. That was only a couple years ago. I've noticed Sansha/Blood modules (like the A-type EANMs) haven't taken anywhere close to as bad of a hit.
DeMichael Crimson
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#3 - 2015-09-20 08:41:20 UTC  |  Edited by: DeMichael Crimson
FT Diomedes wrote:
I would like to see CCP lower the chance for an anomaly to lead to an escalation.

Agree or disagree?

Disagree.

I think the reason CCP increased the escalation chance of Cosmic Anomalies was to encourage players to participate in that content. With the massive increase of competition in exploration, Cosmic Signatures were getting scarce which only incited player complaints. Most systems have an abundant amount of Cosmic Anomalies available which many players bypass. Since Cosmic Anomalies can be run by all players without the use of a probe launcher, doesn't surprise me CCP increased the chance of escalation inciting players to engage in that content..

Granted the increased chances of escalation also increases the chance of getting Faction and Deadspace loot which then creates a semi-surplus of items available in the Market and due to competition, reduces Market prices. Personally I like the idea of those items dropping in price. If anything it makes it easier for newish players to also afford that equipment.


DMC
David Therman
#4 - 2015-09-20 14:30:38 UTC
I'm a bit on the fence here, because I like the security of having an escalated site all to myself; when I started out, I was running with a AB Stratios, and more than once I was caught running something like the blood 3/10 and having someone else nab the loot. Very infuriating, to say the least. Whilst I like to think myself wiser against any such intrusions, I much prefer going through the sites without that hassle.

On the other hand, the plummeting value of loot is something that does concern me. For instance, yesterday I was going through a list of items that I was thinking of selling, and I spotted a few Coreli A-type mods. What caught me eye specifically were the prop mods; the Afterburner is now going for less then 20m, and the MWD is approaching that point as well. As the Serp 3/10 is something that can be escalated both from Hideaway's + Refuge's, the influx of a-type loot from that site has probably gone up exponentially. As someone who's income is mostly derived from exploration loot, and who happens to have most of his assets in and around Gallente space, that's mildly depressing.

Is the chance too high? Well, there have been occasions recently when I've done 20+ anoms in a row without one, and other's where I've got an escalation 3 consecutive times... then again, I haven't had too many sites recently where only the OPE dropped. Dare I say it, maybe the loot drop is something that could be tweaked instead?!

P

RNG is a fickle thing, but I was going to say they could increase the escalation chance a tad (not to how it was before the changes), but I don't think something as minimal as that would have any meaningful effect. I'll agree with DMC in that more people will be buying the higher tier deadspace loot the cheaper it gets, so prices are going to stabilise at some point, surely?
Sexy Cakes
Have A Seat
#5 - 2015-09-20 14:36:00 UTC
Why should the best mods in the game be dirt cheap because escalations are insanely common?

The epic feeling of buying some deadspace loot on your ship is cheapened.

Not today spaghetti.

Chainsaw Plankton
FaDoyToy
#6 - 2015-09-20 20:29:29 UTC
I feel like the biggest thing is just that gurista's occupy so much space, and much of it is heavily populated (including all that caldari empire space). Plus with the "new" hud you see when you have exploration sites in system so they seem to get run much faster. Even with a lower chance there are still so many sites completed that there will still be many escalations.

I think the armor stuff is helped out by the fact it goes on supers, and armor supers dominate. That said there are 3 factions that drop that stuff, and on the hardeners they all have the same stats. That stuff has pretty much all been on a slide as well, but not quite as bad as some of the shield stuff.

@ChainsawPlankto on twitter

Chainsaw Plankton
FaDoyToy
#7 - 2015-09-20 20:55:04 UTC
Sexy Cakes wrote:
Why should the best mods in the game be dirt cheap because escalations are insanely common?

The epic feeling of buying some deadspace loot on your ship is cheapened.

I'd say most of it isn't dirt cheap, but it is kinda nice seeing people actually use the stuff outside of caps (or lulz worthy mission fits that get ganked). and now with the ancillary shield boosters and armor reps it seems demand for deadspace boosters/reps seems to have dropped a bunch. But there are some cool setups that take advantage of a deadspace rep (usually a pith shield booster).

@ChainsawPlankto on twitter

Sexy Cakes
Have A Seat
#8 - 2015-09-21 12:15:16 UTC
Chainsaw Plankton wrote:
Sexy Cakes wrote:
Why should the best mods in the game be dirt cheap because escalations are insanely common?

The epic feeling of buying some deadspace loot on your ship is cheapened.

I'd say most of it isn't dirt cheap, but it is kinda nice seeing people actually use the stuff outside of caps (or lulz worthy mission fits that get ganked). and now with the ancillary shield boosters and armor reps it seems demand for deadspace boosters/reps seems to have dropped a bunch. But there are some cool setups that take advantage of a deadspace rep (usually a pith shield booster).


Yes I suppose that's a good point, hadn't thought of that.

It's kind of lame to be doing the hardest 'dungeons' in the game and getting loot that's crazy common though.

Not today spaghetti.

Estella Osoka
Cranky Bitches Who PMS
#9 - 2015-09-21 13:49:42 UTC
The reason deadspace loot is being cheapened, is directly related to the fact that scanning itself is so easy.

If anyone with mediocre scanning skills can scan down 4/10 to 10/10, then that's a lot of people doing it. People tend to think there aren't that many explorers in the game, they would be dead wrong. It's easier to get into exploring than it is to grind for L4 missions; and the payoff is much bigger.

If you want to see deadspace loot become more expensive, then press CCP to making scanning the high end sites harder.
FT Diomedes
The Graduates
#10 - 2015-09-21 16:08:24 UTC
Estella Osoka wrote:
The reason deadspace loot is being cheapened, is directly related to the fact that scanning itself is so easy.

If anyone with mediocre scanning skills can scan down 4/10 to 10/10, then that's a lot of people doing it. People tend to think there aren't that many explorers in the game, they would be dead wrong. It's easier to get into exploring than it is to grind for L4 missions; and the payoff is much bigger.

If you want to see deadspace loot become more expensive, then press CCP to making scanning the high end sites harder.


The number of exploration sites pales in comparison with the number of escalations.

CCP should add more NPC 0.0 space to open it up and liven things up: the Stepping Stones project.

Jenn aSide
Worthless Carebears
The Initiative.
#11 - 2015-09-21 16:29:08 UTC
There hasn't been a huge decrease in population in null,even after fozzie sov. On reddit there was a post showing only a minor dip in both pvp and pve kills for null.

As for the escalation chance increase, it's fine, the only place it's really evident is the over-farmed Imperium North. Sure prices have come down for non-pith gear, but not as much.

And Escalations cause content, where I live the 2 nearest regions where escalations are likely to go are held by people not friendly to my alliance. So unlike in the solidly Imperium held north, when i go purse loot, it's in some Russians back yard. Also, the escalation chances make low and high sec anomalies more worth doing than in the past.

The problem is The Imperium/The North lol, not the escalation chances.
Estella Osoka
Cranky Bitches Who PMS
#12 - 2015-09-21 17:53:33 UTC
FT Diomedes wrote:
Estella Osoka wrote:
The reason deadspace loot is being cheapened, is directly related to the fact that scanning itself is so easy.

If anyone with mediocre scanning skills can scan down 4/10 to 10/10, then that's a lot of people doing it. People tend to think there aren't that many explorers in the game, they would be dead wrong. It's easier to get into exploring than it is to grind for L4 missions; and the payoff is much bigger.

If you want to see deadspace loot become more expensive, then press CCP to making scanning the high end sites harder.


The number of exploration sites pales in comparison with the number of escalations.


The way I've seen it explained is that the sites you scan down with probes have a higher chance of spawning an escalation, whereas the sites you don't scan down have a lower chance of spawning an escalation.

I personally think the scan sites should be harder to scan down, and the non-scan sites should not even give an escalation. Then make the escalations have a higher chance for drops.
FT Diomedes
The Graduates
#13 - 2015-09-21 18:48:12 UTC
Estella Osoka wrote:
FT Diomedes wrote:
Estella Osoka wrote:
The reason deadspace loot is being cheapened, is directly related to the fact that scanning itself is so easy.

If anyone with mediocre scanning skills can scan down 4/10 to 10/10, then that's a lot of people doing it. People tend to think there aren't that many explorers in the game, they would be dead wrong. It's easier to get into exploring than it is to grind for L4 missions; and the payoff is much bigger.

If you want to see deadspace loot become more expensive, then press CCP to making scanning the high end sites harder.


The number of exploration sites pales in comparison with the number of escalations.


The way I've seen it explained is that the sites you scan down with probes have a higher chance of spawning an escalation, whereas the sites you don't scan down have a lower chance of spawning an escalation.

I personally think the scan sites should be harder to scan down, and the non-scan sites should not even give an escalation. Then make the escalations have a higher chance for drops.


The way you have seen it explained is wrong. You can scan down Deadspace Complexes, as signatures. Or, you can get the same Deadspace Complex as an escalation from an anomaly.

As for making the scan harder, but a higher chance for drops, that will do no good. The hard part with exploration is beating the other explorers to the site (or scaring them away). If you make it so that only max-skilled characters can find the good sites, you just raise a barrier to entry to make them farmed by the same people.

CCP should add more NPC 0.0 space to open it up and liven things up: the Stepping Stones project.

Estella Osoka
Cranky Bitches Who PMS
#14 - 2015-09-21 18:55:30 UTC
FT Diomedes wrote:
Estella Osoka wrote:
FT Diomedes wrote:
Estella Osoka wrote:
The reason deadspace loot is being cheapened, is directly related to the fact that scanning itself is so easy.

If anyone with mediocre scanning skills can scan down 4/10 to 10/10, then that's a lot of people doing it. People tend to think there aren't that many explorers in the game, they would be dead wrong. It's easier to get into exploring than it is to grind for L4 missions; and the payoff is much bigger.

If you want to see deadspace loot become more expensive, then press CCP to making scanning the high end sites harder.


The number of exploration sites pales in comparison with the number of escalations.


The way I've seen it explained is that the sites you scan down with probes have a higher chance of spawning an escalation, whereas the sites you don't scan down have a lower chance of spawning an escalation.

I personally think the scan sites should be harder to scan down, and the non-scan sites should not even give an escalation. Then make the escalations have a higher chance for drops.


The way you have seen it explained is wrong. You can scan down Deadspace Complexes, as signatures. Or, you can get the same Deadspace Complex as an escalation from an anomaly.

As for making the scan harder, but a higher chance for drops, that will do no good. The hard part with exploration is beating the other explorers to the site (or scaring them away). If you make it so that only max-skilled characters can find the good sites, you just raise a barrier to entry to make them farmed by the same people.


You say that, like it is a bad thing.
Vic Jefferson
Stimulus
Rote Kapelle
#15 - 2015-09-21 21:46:14 UTC  |  Edited by: Vic Jefferson
Yes. The glut of escalations has destroyed the market and made a profession obsolete.

No. Anomalies needed the increased escalation chance to remain competitive with HS incursion or L4 blitzing. The escalation chance is right on, the reward structure needs to be changed to mitigate saturation. Give scanned down sites a different loot table containing some missing deadspace mods to make them worth the time to scan and run, or change the entire DED site payout system. A random number of Overseer's Effects drop, with a better chance for more from scanned down sites, which are no longer redeemable for ISK, but for CONCORD LP or DED LP. This creates a secondary market and more content for traders.


Doing even a little bit of homework, I would estimate the number of escalations Deklein saw on Sunday alone to be at least 150. Having extensively run DEDs in teams with multiple scanning alts and blopsing around T3s to run them as soon as they are found, that is WILDLY in excess of the number of sites you can get to spawn in a single region in a day.

Vote Vic Jefferson for CSM X.....XI.....XII?

Sheeth Athonille
TerraTroopers
Get Off My Lawn
#16 - 2015-09-21 22:43:45 UTC
FT Diomedes wrote:
Estella Osoka wrote:
FT Diomedes wrote:
Estella Osoka wrote:
The reason deadspace loot is being cheapened, is directly related to the fact that scanning itself is so easy.

If anyone with mediocre scanning skills can scan down 4/10 to 10/10, then that's a lot of people doing it. People tend to think there aren't that many explorers in the game, they would be dead wrong. It's easier to get into exploring than it is to grind for L4 missions; and the payoff is much bigger.

If you want to see deadspace loot become more expensive, then press CCP to making scanning the high end sites harder.


The number of exploration sites pales in comparison with the number of escalations.


The way I've seen it explained is that the sites you scan down with probes have a higher chance of spawning an escalation, whereas the sites you don't scan down have a lower chance of spawning an escalation.

I personally think the scan sites should be harder to scan down, and the non-scan sites should not even give an escalation. Then make the escalations have a higher chance for drops.


The way you have seen it explained is wrong. You can scan down Deadspace Complexes, as signatures. Or, you can get the same Deadspace Complex as an escalation from an anomaly.

As for making the scan harder, but a higher chance for drops, that will do no good. The hard part with exploration is beating the other explorers to the site (or scaring them away). If you make it so that only max-skilled characters can find the good sites, you just raise a barrier to entry to make them farmed by the same people.


Nope, he has it explained correctly. You're just talking about two different things. Estella is talking about unrated complexes, which do have a higher chance to escalate than anomalies do. However the escalations don't lead to DED complexes.

Yeah there are DED sites that are scanned down as well, but not what Estella was talking about.

And I'd have to disagree about it being a race to the site. In extremely high population areas it is (basically Provi or High) but out in the end of nowhere null or low, they basically stay there until someone comes to run it, no competition needed. At least not in my experience.
Daniela Doran
Doomheim
#17 - 2015-09-23 03:17:00 UTC
Estella Osoka wrote:
The reason deadspace loot is being cheapened, is directly related to the fact that scanning itself is so easy.

If anyone with mediocre scanning skills can scan down 4/10 to 10/10, then that's a lot of people doing it. People tend to think there aren't that many explorers in the game, they would be dead wrong. It's easier to get into exploring than it is to grind for L4 missions; and the payoff is much bigger.

If you want to see deadspace loot become more expensive, then press CCP to making scanning the high end sites harder.


Agreed, CCP has made scanning way to easy unlike the way it used to be back in 2012.
Damjan Fox
Fox Industries and Exploration
#18 - 2015-09-23 10:40:57 UTC
Vic Jefferson wrote:
... the reward structure needs to be changed to mitigate saturation. Give scanned down sites a different loot table ...

^This. Escalations from anomalies shouldn't lead to DED complexes, but to different sites with different loot tables.
(but CCP was just lazy again, i guess Roll)
Estella Osoka
Cranky Bitches Who PMS
#19 - 2015-09-23 13:26:20 UTC
CCP cheapened exploration as a whole when they made it so a less-than-a-week-old-noob could scan down high end sites. When you do something like that, eventually it will roll back around and devalue all the profits that came from exploration. Which is what we are seeing now.
Talsha Talamar
Nebula Rasa Holdings
Nebula Rasa
#20 - 2015-09-23 15:30:32 UTC
Daniela Doran wrote:
Estella Osoka wrote:
The reason deadspace loot is being cheapened, is directly related to the fact that scanning itself is so easy.

If anyone with mediocre scanning skills can scan down 4/10 to 10/10, then that's a lot of people doing it. People tend to think there aren't that many explorers in the game, they would be dead wrong. It's easier to get into exploring than it is to grind for L4 missions; and the payoff is much bigger.

If you want to see deadspace loot become more expensive, then press CCP to making scanning the high end sites harder.


Agreed, CCP has made scanning way to easy unlike the way it used to be back in 2012.


I loved the old scanning system.
Was it a pain in the ass ?
Sure it was!
Was it gratifying as hell: You bet.

Of course I am trying hard to forget about the need to make 1001^n bookmarks and all those different types and sizes of probes.
Yet hell it was fun.
Also back then exploration sites very often had the deadspace bonus.
So if people wanted to find you, they would need to scan the site down themselves or camp the gates/stations aso.

I spend a lot of time in lowsec back then scanning sites and palying fox and hound with the locals.
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