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Decline in numbers... starting to turn into RAPID!!!

First post
Author
Caitlyn DeSalle
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#4141 - 2016-01-23 12:53:28 UTC
So, what do we know of the people that left? Did CCP share their motivations with the rest of the community? I believe there is a post mortem survey done on your way out? So far all I see is the opinions of those left behind and let's face it, the assholery is strong with some of them. I much rather know why new players turn their back on Eve. You can't fix if you don't know what is broken.
King Aires
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#4142 - 2016-01-23 13:39:18 UTC
Caitlyn DeSalle wrote:
So, what do we know of the people that left? Did CCP share their motivations with the rest of the community? I believe there is a post mortem survey done on your way out? So far all I see is the opinions of those left behind and let's face it, the assholery is strong with some of them. I much rather know why new players turn their back on Eve. You can't fix if you don't know what is broken.



The survey when you unsub is rather pointless to actual suggestions of the game. It includes things like

"I have real life issues"
"I just want to cancel"
"I need to think over options for billing"

So we they can't use that as much as the comment section, but face it, humans are lazy creatures and won't fill out much.

The actual post-mortem survey they email out is a whole different animal, but still rather pointless and probably ignored by many.

Steam reviews are generally a horrible place to get reviews of a game this old and sophisticated but the general negative remarks are about the lack of effort based skill systems, high monthly subscription, horrible community attitude and lack of direction or purpose.

Now that all being said. Most likely CCP has a pretty good idea of who our recent lost player numbers are, probably why they left too. However they are in the middle of a community culture that thinks its cool to pump up their chests and scream "WE DIDN'T WANT THOSE PLAYERS ANYWAYS"

So there's that.
Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
#4143 - 2016-01-23 14:07:06 UTC  |  Edited by: Jonah Gravenstein
King Aires wrote:
Steam reviews are generally a horrible place to get reviews of a game this old and sophisticated but the general negative remarks are about the lack of effort based skill systems,
That merely means that some people don't understand the difference between a time based skill system and a grind based skill system.

Quote:
high monthly subscription,
Which is on a par with other subscription MMO's and doesn't gouge you for new content.

Quote:
horrible community attitude
A community that is often praised for its maturity and generosity, despite how ruthless the gameplay is.

Quote:
and lack of direction or purpose.
It's a sandbox, Eve doesn't spoon feed you direction, purpose or content, it uses the spoon to beat you mercilessly until you find your own.

In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded.

New Player FAQ

Feyd's Survival Pack

Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#4144 - 2016-01-23 14:14:12 UTC
I'm increasingly coming round to the view that the big drop wasn't because EVE has too much ganking or too little W-space or hasn't got WiS or anything as simple as that.

I think the problem is that EVE is heavily populated with players who have played it for a very long time. As such the existing playerbase is largely simultaneously kind of bored because they've throroughly mastered the aspects of the game they're interested in while at the same time vulnerable to change fatigue because they're so heaviliy invested in that mastery.

So everyone agrees that this or that part of the game needs a "radical improvement" (even if they're not at all in agreement about how). But it's the magnitude of the change that's dangerous, because with a big enough change, there will be a large fraction of the players who - even if they were the ones calling for the change - will simply balk at the effort required to relearn "their" part of EVE and peace out.

One really good recent example of this is off-grid boosting. Until recently, it was near impossible to find anyone who had a good word to say about it. And from a game design perspective, there isn't much good to say about it. It exists purely because it's really difficult to remove it for technical reasons.
Then one fine day in the month of January In The Year Of Our Lord 2016, CCP casually let drop that they're pretty close to solving those technical difficulties, and OGB is going away Real Soon Now.

In a shocking surprise twist turn of events, it seems that a lot of the players who used to use OGB as a stick to beat CCP with ("Why won't you fix your stupid game CCP? Well FINE I will use OGB since everyone else is using it too! Hate the game, not the player!") err... actually didn't want to lose THEIR OGB at all. They were pretty much OK with goons/blobbers/russians/no-true-soloists losing their SS Lokis... but "Oh god no, not mine!!! We NEED that to fit goons/blobbers/russians/FOTM!!!"

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016

King Aires
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#4145 - 2016-01-23 14:19:54 UTC
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:
King Aires wrote:
Steam reviews are generally a horrible place to get reviews of a game this old and sophisticated but the general negative remarks are about the lack of effort based skill systems,
That merely means that some people don't understand the difference between a time based skill system and a grind based skill system

Quote:
high monthly subscription,
Which is on a par with other subscription MMO's and doesn't gouge you for new content?
Quote:
horrible community attitude
A community that is often praised for its maturity and generosity, despite how ruthless the gameplay is.

Quote:
and lack of direction or purpose.
It's a sandbox, Eve doesn't spoon feed you direction, purpose or content, it uses the spoon to beat you mercilessly until you find your own.



Like I said, steam reviews are a horrible place to get information about quitters. I was using it as an example of the kind of stuff that CCP probably gets in their comment section of their survey as well.

I don't have a clue why people are leaving, too much PVE too little PVE, too much PVP whatever. It isn't my job to know. But the numbers are dropping and the recent uptick is symptomatic of the time of year, not a resurgence of interest.

CCP's decision to take something as sacred as SP/Time and turn it into a money churn wheel doesn't exactly instill confidence that the right captain is at the helm making the right decisions either.
Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
#4146 - 2016-01-23 14:26:21 UTC  |  Edited by: Jonah Gravenstein
King Aires wrote:
Like I said, steam reviews are a horrible place to get information about quitters. I was using it as an example of the kind of stuff that CCP probably gets in their comment section of their survey as well.

I don't have a clue why people are leaving, too much PVE too little PVE, too much PVP whatever. It isn't my job to know. But the numbers are dropping and the recent uptick is symptomatic of the time of year, not a resurgence of interest.

CCP's decision to take something as sacred as SP/Time and turn it into a money churn wheel doesn't exactly instill confidence that the right captain is at the helm making the right decisions either.
Ahh fair enough, that's what I get for posting without the first coffee of the day inside me. Oops

My bad, although to be honest your examples often appear on the forums as "serious" complaints.

In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded.

New Player FAQ

Feyd's Survival Pack

King Aires
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#4147 - 2016-01-23 15:13:20 UTC
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:
King Aires wrote:
Like I said, steam reviews are a horrible place to get information about quitters. I was using it as an example of the kind of stuff that CCP probably gets in their comment section of their survey as well.

I don't have a clue why people are leaving, too much PVE too little PVE, too much PVP whatever. It isn't my job to know. But the numbers are dropping and the recent uptick is symptomatic of the time of year, not a resurgence of interest.

CCP's decision to take something as sacred as SP/Time and turn it into a money churn wheel doesn't exactly instill confidence that the right captain is at the helm making the right decisions either.
Ahh fair enough, that's what I get for posting without the first coffee of the day inside me. Oops

My bad, although to be honest your examples often appear on the forums as "serious" complaints.



My real complaint about this game is that I can never have the same feeling about it as I did in 2007/2008. That isn't a CCP problem as much as it is a problem with expectations and personal experience.

The decisions made over the last couple years have been absolutely horrendous in my opinion, and the most recent one is just about enough to push me over the top. I am waiting to see if Citadels will break this game in epic fashion or be the savior some hope it will be.

I think though there is far too easy PVE content, far to little PVE content and PVP has turned into a waste of time due to overpowered small class ships. There is also far too many "instant gratification" pvpers out there who don't remember or appreciate the game when it was far more "strategic".

But those are just my opinions. And no worries, I worded my post terribly so I figured it was going to come off the wrong way.
Indahmawar Fazmarai
#4148 - 2016-01-23 15:25:48 UTC  |  Edited by: Indahmawar Fazmarai
Malcanis wrote:
I'm increasingly coming round to the view that the big drop wasn't because EVE has too much ganking or too little W-space or hasn't got WiS or anything as simple as that.

I think the problem is that EVE is heavily populated with players who have played it for a very long time. As such the existing playerbase is largely simultaneously kind of bored because they've throroughly mastered the aspects of the game they're interested in while at the same time vulnerable to change fatigue because they're so heaviliy invested in that mastery.

So everyone agrees that this or that part of the game needs a "radical improvement" (even if they're not at all in agreement about how). But it's the magnitude of the change that's dangerous, because with a big enough change, there will be a large fraction of the players who - even if they were the ones calling for the change - will simply balk at the effort required to relearn "their" part of EVE and peace out.

One really good recent example of this is off-grid boosting. Until recently, it was near impossible to find anyone who had a good word to say about it. And from a game design perspective, there isn't much good to say about it. It exists purely because it's really difficult to remove it for technical reasons.
Then one fine day in the month of January In The Year Of Our Lord 2016, CCP casually let drop that they're pretty close to solving those technical difficulties, and OGB is going away Real Soon Now.

In a shocking surprise twist turn of events, it seems that a lot of the players who used to use OGB as a stick to beat CCP with ("Why won't you fix your stupid game CCP? Well FINE I will use OGB since everyone else is using it too! Hate the game, not the player!") err... actually didn't want to lose THEIR OGB at all. They were pretty much OK with goons/blobbers/russians/no-true-soloists losing their SS Lokis... but "Oh god no, not mine!!! We NEED that to fit goons/blobbers/russians/FOTM!!!"


I won't comment on PvP since that's not my trade. Yet what you say is why I say that anything done to PvE, must keep the old content exactly as it is. Improve PvE yes, change PvE absolutely no. That's somehting Sugar Kyle noticed when she asked the PvE community. Unfortunately CCP Affinity didn't bother to ask PvErs and some of the stuff she said at Vegas was like out-of-solar-system out of touch with that reality.

Nobody wants to lose the ability to run a Level 4 each now and then. But that's not enough. Level 4s are limited and repeat often. More different PvE is needed, but without removing the old one. Then factor that players are used to a degree of risk and rarely move away from it. So, find that risk and expand it. That's how to improve PvE... without changing the existing content.

Anyway, that doesn't explains why 5,000 characters stopped logging in within 4 weeks. My first hunch, which I discarded, was that something had changed in the way PCU is measured. But that's not compatible with the 4 weeks decline. I also considered that those were nullseccers hauling stuf around and readying for Aegisov, but that doesn't accounts for how the PCU was higher right until the end of May... and anyway "the big haul" barely was noticeable in server population the weekend before Aegisov.

The mistery remains. I will keep thinking about it until someone comes with a good explanation.
Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#4149 - 2016-01-23 15:57:02 UTC
Indahmawar Fazmarai wrote:
Improve PvE yes, change PvE absolutely no.



Lol

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016

sero Hita
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#4150 - 2016-01-23 16:27:25 UTC  |  Edited by: sero Hita
Indahmawar Fazmarai wrote:

Anyway, that doesn't explains why 5,000 characters stopped logging in within 4 weeks. My first hunch, which I discarded, was that something had changed in the way PCU is measured. But that's not compatible with the 4 weeks decline. I also considered that those were nullseccers hauling stuf around and readying for Aegisov, but that doesn't accounts for how the PCU was higher right until the end of May... and anyway "the big haul" barely was noticeable in server population the weekend before Aegisov.

The mistery remains. I will keep thinking about it until someone comes with a good explanation.


It is hard to know what happened. Did people quit, or do they just play less hours per day suddenly? Both would lead to a drop in PCU and ACU. As the main drop happened in correlation with aegis sov, it is possible that the answer hides within aegis sov (It could be unrelated).

I do not know to much about sov, but the implementation of a vulnerability windows, might have lead to people being online mostly in this window, and log off when it is over, where they might have stayed on longer before. This would for example lead to a drop in ACU.

With the new SOV system as far as I know capital pilots are also not needed at he same degree anymore. So It can be that people don't log in their capital alts anymore.

Also they could just have quit because they did not like the Aegis change, and was dissapointed that CCP did not listen to the criticism that was given about interceptor and boring mechanics based on SISI testing before the release. The possibillities are many. And is probably a little bit of each.

"I'm all for pvp, don't get me wrong. I've ganked in Empire, blobed in low sec. Got T-shirts from every which-where.. But to be forced into a pvp confrontation that I didn't want is wrong ccp." RealFlisker

sero Hita
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#4151 - 2016-01-23 16:41:58 UTC
Indahmawar Fazmarai wrote:


So, what happened? My initial guess was that it was related to Aegisov, but that wasn't implemented until July. Then I thought that maybe it was related to the expiry of 6-month subscriptions not being renewed over the input relaying changes, but, seriously? From 39k online to 34k online? Why did those guys keep loggin in?

So here's the thing. So far remains a little mistery... can anyone come up with theories on what happened in June 2015 so PCU lost 5,000 players in 4 weeks?


Sry just saw this post now. I think a lot of people did not care to log in just before the big change because they were waiting for the new mechanics. Hence a drop in ACU. When it was implemented people were disappointed and stayed away, or like what I wrote above this.

"I'm all for pvp, don't get me wrong. I've ganked in Empire, blobed in low sec. Got T-shirts from every which-where.. But to be forced into a pvp confrontation that I didn't want is wrong ccp." RealFlisker

KC Kamikaze
Blue-Fire
#4152 - 2016-01-23 16:54:46 UTC
I'm patiently waiting for everyone to unsub so i can gate my titans.

This is a unique game and community. It will never be super popular as it is because of the level of difficulty involved in its mastery. Subs will go up, subs will go down. Bittervets will be bitter and super salty.

Rip multiboxing. Eve lost a lot of subs to it. Not nearly as big of a decline in players as it was decline in characters/subs. Not sure what all the fuss is about. You wanted it.

I'd still like a jump drive for my bowhead.
Arsine Mayhem
Doomheim
#4153 - 2016-01-23 17:35:13 UTC
King Aires wrote:

The survey when you unsub is rather pointless to actual suggestions of the game. It includes things like

"I have real life issues"
"I just want to cancel"
"I need to think over options for billing"

So we they can't use that as much as the comment section, but face it, humans are lazy creatures and won't fill out much.


Not that we're lazy, you're leaving. Why do you care.

They nerfed "Will of the Forsaken" is my reason.
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#4154 - 2016-01-23 18:25:04 UTC
sero Hita wrote:
Sry just saw this post now. I think a lot of people did not care to log in just before the big change because they were waiting for the new mechanics. Hence a drop in ACU. When it was implemented people were disappointed and stayed away, or like what I wrote above this.

Also, interesting to note, PCU has its own cycles that need to be observed on a larger scale than by just looking at the day-to-day (or week-to-week) numbers. Seasonal activity needs a year-to-year comparison.

For instance… http://eve.beyondreality.se/pics/PCU2015.png
The drop-off after May '15 didn't necessarily start at the end of May. Yes, the numbers are lower compared to the same days a year earlier, but they are consistently lower, and had been since late April. If anything, late May saw curiously high numbers, which then returned to the regular lower PCUs in June. Similarly, the March–April period was strangely high after a period of high (but constantly slowing) decline. The reasonably stable numbers during the summer and autumn were just as much lower as the the seemingly precipitous May–June PCUs. In other words, part of that decline seems seasonal.

So whatever happened in May '15 seems to have happened in May '14 as well — so what did that period look like? http://eve.beyondreality.se/pics/PCU2014.png

An insane decrease in numbers compared to '13, starting in February and peaking in May. Why does it show up like that? It's because May '13 saw very high numbers, including the current PCU record.
Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#4155 - 2016-01-23 18:28:17 UTC
sero Hita wrote:
Indahmawar Fazmarai wrote:

Anyway, that doesn't explains why 5,000 characters stopped logging in within 4 weeks. My first hunch, which I discarded, was that something had changed in the way PCU is measured. But that's not compatible with the 4 weeks decline. I also considered that those were nullseccers hauling stuf around and readying for Aegisov, but that doesn't accounts for how the PCU was higher right until the end of May... and anyway "the big haul" barely was noticeable in server population the weekend before Aegisov.

The mistery remains. I will keep thinking about it until someone comes with a good explanation.


It is hard to know what happened. Did people quit, or do they just play less hours per day suddenly? Both would lead to a drop in PCU and ACU. As the main drop happened in correlation with aegis sov, it is possible that the answer hides within aegis sov (It could be unrelated).

I do not know to much about sov, but the implementation of a vulnerability windows, might have lead to people being online mostly in this window, and log off when it is over, where they might have stayed on longer before. This would for example lead to a drop in ACU.

With the new SOV system as far as I know capital pilots are also not needed at he same degree anymore. So It can be that people don't log in their capital alts anymore.

Also they could just have quit because they did not like the Aegis change, and was dissapointed that CCP did not listen to the criticism that was given about interceptor and boring mechanics based on SISI testing before the release. The possibillities are many. And is probably a little bit of each.



"Improve Sov? Yes. Change Sov? Absolutely no!"

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016

Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
#4156 - 2016-01-23 22:05:00 UTC  |  Edited by: Jonah Gravenstein
Indahmawar Fazmarai wrote:
Improve PvE yes, change PvE absolutely no.
This is what is known as an oxymoron.

The very definition of the word improve requires change to that which already exists, by means of making it better. The second part of your statement completely negates the first.

TL;DR You can't have your cake and eat it.

In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded.

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TigerXtrm
KarmaFleet
Goonswarm Federation
#4157 - 2016-01-23 22:12:13 UTC  |  Edited by: TigerXtrm
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:

Quote:
high monthly subscription,
Which is on a par with other subscription MMO's and doesn't gouge you for new content.


Problem with that is; EVE Online is one of very few MMO's in existence that still charge a monthly fee to play. This day, in 2016, when people see a paid subscription game, all they see is money scrounging game devs because it's not a widely used or accepted business model anymore. As valid a model as it may be, EVE cannot and will not survive another 10 years by asking 15 bucks a month to play. Simply because the current and future consumer base doesn't understand/support/want it.

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Bumblefck
Kerensky Initiatives
#4158 - 2016-01-23 22:14:53 UTC

Given that the entire game is absolutely predicated on PvP of one colour or another, I think we must, unfortunately but wholeheartedly, disregard the rest of your post.



Indahmawar Fazmarai wrote:

I won't comment on PvP since that's not my trade.

Perfection is a dish best served like wasabi .

Bumble's Space Log

Reiisha
#4159 - 2016-01-23 22:49:52 UTC
TigerXtrm wrote:
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:

Quote:
high monthly subscription,
Which is on a par with other subscription MMO's and doesn't gouge you for new content.


Problem with that is; EVE Online is one of very few MMO's in existence that still charge a monthly fee to play. This day, in 2016, when people see a paid subscription game, all they see is money scrounging game devs because it's not a widely used or accepted business model anymore. As valid a model as it may be, EVE cannot and will not survive another 10 years by asking 15 bucks a month to play. Simply because the current and future consumer base doesn't understand/support/want it.


100% disagree.

EVE works with a subscription because the entire game is built around offering long term gameplay value through solid sandbox mechanics. You can't really make a sandbox title free to play without seriously compromising the gameplay and possibly losing what makes the game good (see archeage).

A sub game needs to be justified of course, and i think EVE still does that, despite it's current problems. It's still got about 330k subs and it only needs about 30 to 50k to survive. If CCP manages to turn the game around and get the subs back to 500k again, that's more than enough to keep the game running and keep new features coming in.

If you do things right, people won't be sure you've done anything at all...

Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
#4160 - 2016-01-23 22:50:34 UTC
TigerXtrm wrote:
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:

Quote:
high monthly subscription,
Which is on a par with other subscription MMO's and doesn't gouge you for new content.


Problem with that is; EVE Online is one of very few MMO's in existence that still charge a monthly fee to play. This day, in 2016, when people see a paid subscription game, all they see is money scrounging game devs because it's not a widely used or accepted business model anymore. As valid a model as it may be, EVE cannot and will not survive another 10 years by asking 15 bucks a month to play. Simply because the current and future consumer base doesn't understand/support/want it.
I totally get your point as I feel the same way when I look at other games that while free to play have a cash store for the better stuff.

Admittedly the cash stores in other games tend to be a bit more sensibly priced than the Gordon Gecko approach taken by CCP, who to their credit stopped at cosmetic items. They rely on volume, due to their larger customer base, rather than insane pricing to make their money, however they do often sell the dreaded "golden ammo" style items; which were a major bone of contention during Incarnagate because we couldn't get an answer on whether or not CCP had plans to introduce that too.

Both are valid models for monetisation but given the choice I'd rather pay a sub than have my wallet suffer the death of a thousand micro-transactions to stay competitive.

In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded.

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