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Decline in numbers... starting to turn into RAPID!!!

First post
Author
ISD Fractal
ISD Community Communications Liaisons
ISD Alliance
#4001 - 2016-01-18 19:13:19 UTC
Quote:
4. Personal attacks are prohibited.

Commonly known as flaming, personal attacks are posts that are designed to personally berate or insult another forum user. Posts of this nature are not conductive to the community spirit that CCP promotes. As such, this kind of behavior will not be tolerated.


A post and those quoting it have been removed for violating the above rule.

ISD Fractal

Lieutenant

Community Communication Liaisons (CCLs)

Interstellar Services Department

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#4002 - 2016-01-18 19:15:19 UTC  |  Edited by: Tippia
Armand Razor wrote:
Go to a newbie system, gank someone for a week every day once and see how many times it takes until he doesnt log in anymore.
…or I can just ask CCP, who have the data and have run the statistical analysis as opposed to relying on anecdotal evidence.

I'm trying to find the exact presentation where it comes up, but the one strong correlation they found was that more drones = more likely to stick around. Oh, and just being exposed to PvP combat and other forms of player interactions in general — the more and the earlier, the more likely they'd get out of the mining/mission-bubble of isolation and start to get hooked on the game as a whole.
baltec1
Bat Country
Pandemic Horde
#4003 - 2016-01-18 19:16:34 UTC
King Aires wrote:



So you have no proof then. Thanks for that information-gasm



I see we have someone who cant look up super easy to find stuff for themselves again

How quickly people forget that for a month the forums were almost nothing but whines about how my corp were destroying EVE and making mining impossible and how CCP should nerf us all.
Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
#4004 - 2016-01-18 19:22:54 UTC  |  Edited by: Jonah Gravenstein
Armand Razor wrote:
The Problem is: i cant do much with it and if i do (run missions) i might get targeted because i am a carebear and i should play the game as a PvPer and be prepared to PvP all the time because not doing so is bad and i am a bad person because i want to be left alone once in a while to play with my shiny toy that i worked for in relative peace and quiet in regards to other.
It's a game that is promoted as a PvP biased sandbox, being prepared for flight or fight in such a game is common sense.

Being a carebear is an attitude, not a playstyle. I mainly partake of "PvE" activities in Eve, yet I am not a carebear; because I take active precautions to minimise the chances of dying while doing so, instead of constantly asking CCP to do it for me because I want to do it semi afk or in relative safety.

Eve is only as safe as YOU make it for yourself.

In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded.

New Player FAQ

Feyd's Survival Pack

King Aires
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#4005 - 2016-01-18 19:28:31 UTC
baltec1 wrote:
King Aires wrote:



So you have no proof then. Thanks for that information-gasm



I see we have someone who cant look up super easy to find stuff for themselves again

How quickly people forget that for a month the forums were almost nothing but whines about how my corp were destroying EVE and making mining impossible and how CCP should nerf us all.


I was waiting for you to post. Here ya go, proof you are wrong.

Procurers
Retriever
Covetor
Skiff
Mack
Obelisk

Not that I think ganking has anything to do with the player numbers in the least, but at least it shows your nostalgia is bigger than the truth.
Giaus Felix
Doomheim
#4006 - 2016-01-18 19:34:14 UTC  |  Edited by: Giaus Felix
King Aires wrote:
baltec1 wrote:
King Aires wrote:



So you have no proof then. Thanks for that information-gasm



I see we have someone who cant look up super easy to find stuff for themselves again

How quickly people forget that for a month the forums were almost nothing but whines about how my corp were destroying EVE and making mining impossible and how CCP should nerf us all.


I was waiting for you to post. Here ya go, proof you are wrong.

Procurers
Retriever
Covetor
Skiff
Mack
Obelisk

Not that I think ganking has anything to do with the player numbers in the least, but at least it shows your nostalgia is bigger than the truth.
Zkill is hilariously inaccurate prior to 2012 because the consolidation of evekill and zkill data didn't start until then. Even now it isn't fully consolidated with corp killboards that are hosted by 3rd parties.

Your data set is incomplete and thus inaccurate.

I came for the spaceships, I stayed for the tears.

King Aires
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#4007 - 2016-01-18 19:44:33 UTC
Giaus Felix wrote:
King Aires wrote:
baltec1 wrote:
King Aires wrote:



So you have no proof then. Thanks for that information-gasm



I see we have someone who cant look up super easy to find stuff for themselves again

How quickly people forget that for a month the forums were almost nothing but whines about how my corp were destroying EVE and making mining impossible and how CCP should nerf us all.


I was waiting for you to post. Here ya go, proof you are wrong.

Procurers
Retriever
Covetor
Skiff
Mack
Obelisk

Not that I think ganking has anything to do with the player numbers in the least, but at least it shows your nostalgia is bigger than the truth.
Zkill is hilariously inaccurate prior to 2012 because the consolidation of evekill and zkill data didn't start until then. Even now it isn't fully consolidated with corp killboards that are hosted by 3rd parties.

Your data set is incomplete and thus inaccurate.


Less accurate than "my corp ganked a bunch"? Nice deflect. Go ahead and look it up on eve-kill then.
Giaus Felix
Doomheim
#4008 - 2016-01-18 19:49:47 UTC  |  Edited by: Giaus Felix
King Aires wrote:
Less accurate than "my corp ganked a bunch"? Nice deflect. Go ahead and look it up on eve-kill then.
Pointing out a truth is not a deflection.

FYI The gallente ice interdiction is a matter of record, as are Hulkageddons 1 through 5. All of them took place when Eve had a higher average PCU than it currently does.

Baltec's claim of "my corp killed a bunch" is fact, as is his statement of player numbers being higher when the event he describes took place; what you're presenting is a conclusion based upon data that is known to be inaccurate.

I came for the spaceships, I stayed for the tears.

King Aires
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#4009 - 2016-01-18 19:53:37 UTC
Giaus Felix wrote:
King Aires wrote:
Less accurate than "my corp ganked a bunch"? Nice deflect. Go ahead and look it up on eve-kill then.
Pointing out a truth is not a deflect.

FYI The gallente ice interdiction is a matter of record, as are Hulkageddons 1 through 5. All of them took place when Eve had a higher average PCU than it currently does.

Baltec's claim of "my corp killed a bunch" is fact, as is his statement of player numbers being higher when the event he describes took place; what you're presenting is a conclusion based upon data that is known to be inaccurate.



So what if events took place when there was more players. There is a number of problems with your logic. Isolated events doesn't even add up to the totality of the reality during 2014 and 2015. And ganking is not the reason for player increase or player decrease. You are adding causality where there isn't any.

http://beta.eve-kill.net/ship/17480/stats/

Eve-Kill paints the same picture. Its the only data we have available since BC is gone. By the way, I believe both use API now so it would be very hard for either site to be "completely inaccurate" and I would highly doubt that goons/code didn't upload every gank to their own killboard (which feeds these sites).
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#4010 - 2016-01-18 19:54:49 UTC  |  Edited by: Tippia
King Aires wrote:
I was waiting for you to post. Here ya go, proof you are wrong.

Procurers
Retriever
Covetor
Skiff
Mack
Obelisk

Not that I think ganking has anything to do with the player numbers in the least, but at least it shows your nostalgia is bigger than the truth.

So… PCU record in May 2013.
Exhumer stats show markedly higher losses in 2013.
Barge stats show slightly higher losses in 2013.

Stats before 2012 are incomplete, so for the growth period of Quantum Rise–Apocrypha, we'd have to start digging into corp-specifc evekill and battleclinic lists.

Was this what your links were supposed to show?
Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#4011 - 2016-01-18 19:57:50 UTC
Jenn aSide wrote:
Opinions can be right or wrong.
Nope, I disagree.

Tippia wrote:
Yes there is. Just because something is an opinion doesn't mean it can't be wrong.
You can hold the opinion that the moon is made of cheese all you like; it's still wrong, no matter how much of an opinion it is.
Nope, it's factually inaccurate, but it's not wrong. Opinions are subjective, you can't declare them objectively wrong, you can only agree or disagree with them.

Tippia wrote:
How can it not have had any impact? If it had no impact, why has ganking been all but wiped out from gank havens such as Motsu, Irjunen, and Aunia?
Lazy gankers moving to easier spots.

Tippia wrote:
Good news: it does. Far more than avoiding it does, since in that case, everything is skewed in your favour.
Incorrect.

Tippia wrote:
…and if they've done it properly, they'll maybe be down a bit of ammo if some hostile jumps in, but otherwise ready to start shooting (with some partial NPC backup). Again, you are stupidly assuming that the missions can only be run one way, and only in a way that replicates the current situation. The whole point is to not do that and instead use a setup that can handle incoming enemies.
Except of course the other damage they are already tanking. NPCs don't just cease to exist because soemone else warps in. What exactly are you proposing happens to the NPCs when someone warps into your mission?

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.

Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#4012 - 2016-01-18 19:59:03 UTC
Tippia wrote:
Your problem is...

My problem is that I'm having a discussion with a troll. Nothing anyone says will shift your opinion that you are automatically right and so hard done by with all those mean newbies being allowed to live. HTFU.

Tippia wrote:
No, the problem I'm having is that people refuse to use these techniques and instead demand more and more and more mechanical advantages to reduce their risk rather than having to manage it themselves.

No, the problem you have is that you want to maintain bad balance that keeps you in a position of power over rookie players. You don't want to put in the effort it takes to attack players who know what they are doing and you fear losing your pools of easy targets. It's pathetic really.

Tippia wrote:
Just because they've had innumerable reductions in risk

They haven't though, so that's fine.

Tippia wrote:
Meanwhile, the same mechanics have consistently increased the risks for the gankers

Except of course the changes which have buffed gankers as well as the gradual improvement of player skills. Let's be clear here. Gankers hang around in the newbie areas of the game because they are too scared to actually risk anything of value, then they get better and better at what they do, then complain when CCP takes steps to reduce their advantage over the newbies. It's like a football team refusing to move up divisions so they can keep getting matches against easy wins. Grow a pair and move on, then you can stop crying about the mean newbies, they can stop being blown up every few minutes by bored vets for no real gain and perhaps CCP might consider introducing more risk.

baltec1 wrote:
EVE was growing at it fastest rate back when ganking was at its most violent.
Please provide verifiable evidence of this claim.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.

King Aires
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#4013 - 2016-01-18 19:59:45 UTC  |  Edited by: King Aires
Tippia wrote:
King Aires wrote:
I was waiting for you to post. Here ya go, proof you are wrong.

Procurers
Retriever
Covetor
Skiff
Mack
Obelisk

Not that I think ganking has anything to do with the player numbers in the least, but at least it shows your nostalgia is bigger than the truth.

So… PCU record in May 2013.
Exhumer stats show markedly higher losses in 2013.
Barge stats show slightly higher losses in 2013.

Stats before 2012 are incomplete, so for the growth period of Quantum Rise–Apocrypha, we'd have to start digging into corp-specifc evekill and battleclinic lists.

Was this what your links were supposed to show?



I am not actually trying to show anything really. I am asking Baltec to back up his outrageous statement with stats and facts.

You would be asking him to do the exact same thing if he wasn't helping your agenda.

Like I said, I don't think ganking has any effect either way on the player numbers.
Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#4014 - 2016-01-18 20:04:29 UTC  |  Edited by: Lucas Kell
baltec1 wrote:
We wiped out 600 miners in less than 2 weeks and shut down all caldari ice mining in high sec space for a month with just our corp back in 2012. Not only did we kill miners by the hundreds we hyper inflated then collapsed the ice market causing hundreds more to lose billions. You cant do that any more.
First off, this is not evidence, it's an anecdote.

Secondly, are you saying that in the recent Burn Amarr didn't do better? Over 200 freighters in a couple of days.

And hey, Tippia, I thought you were on the side of demanding evidence. baltec has made a claim and now needs to back it up with actual evidence, is that not right?

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.

Giaus Felix
Doomheim
#4015 - 2016-01-18 20:10:03 UTC  |  Edited by: Giaus Felix
King Aires wrote:
So what if events took place when there was more players. There is a number of problems with your logic. Isolated events doesn't even add up to the totality of the reality during 2014 and 2015. And ganking is not the reason for player increase or player decrease. You are adding causality where there isn't any.
I've made no claims of any kind especially with regards to cause and effect, I merely present historical facts regarding the PCU when the events Baltec described took place.

Quote:
http://beta.eve-kill.net/ship/17480/stats/

Eve-Kill paints the same picture. Its the only data we have available since BC is gone. By the way, I believe both use API now so it would be very hard for either site to be "completely inaccurate" and I would highly doubt that goons/code didn't upload every gank to their own killboard (which feeds these sites).
This particular nugget has come up many times in the past, prior to 2012 killboards only collected data from the API keys provided by the players who used it; one of my other characters has multiple losses to other players, prior to 2012, that don't appear on any killboards whatsoever because of it.

I repeat, your conclusion is based upon inaccurate data; the inaccuracies are down to many things, including the way that killboards used to work, that many players hadn't submitted their API keys to killboards, etc, etc.

CODE would have had a hard job uploading all their kills prior to 2012, they didn't exist, as an organisation or an alliance, their killboard is likely to be fairly accurate because zkill is their killboard host and has been since their inception. Goons on the other hand probably have their own internal killboard that may or may not be synced with zkill and evekill, even if it is I'm uncertain as to how far back the sync would go or if the API has limits on how far back you can go.

I came for the spaceships, I stayed for the tears.

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#4016 - 2016-01-18 20:17:58 UTC
Lucas Kell wrote:
Nope, it's factually inaccurate
Or, as they say, “wrong”.

Quote:
Lazy gankers moving to easier spots.
What made them easier?

Quote:
Except of course the other damage they are already tanking.
…which the attacker also has to worry about, courtesy of the quirks of Leval 1 AI. You know, the thing that mission-runners were complaining about and claimed would ruin things forever, even though it had been a known and solved problem for years.

Quote:
My problem is that I'm having a discussion with a troll.
No. You're having a discussion with someone you can't bamboozle with simple rhetorics and fallacies. Since that's all you have, you grow frustrated and have to resort to ad hominems such as this to cover up your failure, and it's this continued and desperate reliance on bad-faith (or just plain bad) argumentation that is your problem.

Quote:
They haven't though, so that's fine.
…except for the changes in aggression; the multiple changes in response time; the changes in ownership flagging; the changes in AI (which in spite of their whinging works to their advantage); the changes in insurance — all of which made them harder, costlier, and less valuable to kill.

Meanwhile, gankers have seen no buffs to speak of. The one thing people try to point to as a buff was just them remaining at status quo in spite of a massive nerf directly aimed at them. Their not getting it worse is not the same being buffed.
Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#4017 - 2016-01-18 20:19:40 UTC
Lucas Kell wrote:
baltec1 wrote:
We wiped out 600 miners in less than 2 weeks and shut down all caldari ice mining in high sec space for a month with just our corp back in 2012. Not only did we kill miners by the hundreds we hyper inflated then collapsed the ice market causing hundreds more to lose billions. You cant do that any more.
First off, this is not evidence, it's an anecdote.

Secondly, are you saying that in the recent Burn Amarr didn't do better? Over 200 freighters in a couple of days.

And hey, Tippia, I thought you were on the side of demanding evidence. baltec has made a claim and now needs to back it up with actual evidence, is that not right?


Well the Ice mining thing definitely jiggered with ice and ice product prices

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#4018 - 2016-01-18 20:28:54 UTC  |  Edited by: Tippia
King Aires wrote:
I am not actually trying to show anything really.

So when you said “Here ya go, proof you are wrong”, you were just making flatulent noises, and now that your “proof” suggests the opposite of what you were claiming, you're attempting to cover up the smell with more BS, even though it's just more of the same thing.

Quote:
I am asking Baltec to back up his outrageous statement with stats and facts.
I noticed. I also noticed that you did the job for him, and I'm asking if this was your intention?
You could also have pointed him to the 2008 QEN and Fanfest economy presentation, where they quote mining ship destruction rates in the hundreds per day for the most popular ships, as opposed to not seeing even the same numbers per month for most of them today. And remember, this was back when a good two thirds of these ships were laughably bad.

You know… this thing:
“450 Hulks per day were produced, outpacing destruction by a factor of 3 or 4” (meaning 100–150 Hulks were destroyed per day).

Or from here:
“During this same time period, an average of 17 Procurer mining barges were shot down per day”
“Looking at retriever losses reveals that 811 ships were shot down per week during Q1 2008” (116/day)
“At the same time, only 210 Covetors were destroyed on average per week, or 30 per day.”
“Some 17 Skiffs were destroyed per week, or about 2.5 per day.”
“The net increase in Mackinaws for Q1 2008 was 5,396, with 7,993 ships produced and 2,597 ships destroyed.” (29/day)
“In total, there were 14.777 new Hulks built during Q1 2008. Some 6.122 Hulks were destroyed” (67/day)

…this at a time when only two mining ships were worth flying: the Retriever and the Hulk, when the daily average user count was in the 25-30k region; and when the game as a whole was about to get a huge upsurge in population and activity.

Compare this to the stats you unfortunately dug up to disprove yourself: looking at the worst month for each in 2015, Procurer maxes out at 46/day, Retriever maxes out at 6.8/day, Covetor at 1.3/day, Skiff at 25/day, Mack at 3.1/day, Hulk at 1.7/day. Or, as an aggregate, in the olden days, 163 barges and 98.5 exhumers per day were lost; today, we're looking at 54.1 and 29.8 respectively.

Quote:
You would be asking him to do the exact same thing if he wasn't helping your agenda.
What's my agenda?
baltec1
Bat Country
Pandemic Horde
#4019 - 2016-01-18 20:36:20 UTC
Lucas Kell wrote:
baltec1 wrote:
We wiped out 600 miners in less than 2 weeks and shut down all caldari ice mining in high sec space for a month with just our corp back in 2012. Not only did we kill miners by the hundreds we hyper inflated then collapsed the ice market causing hundreds more to lose billions. You cant do that any more.
First off, this is not evidence, it's an anecdote.

Secondly, are you saying that in the recent Burn Amarr didn't do better? Over 200 freighters in a couple of days.

And hey, Tippia, I thought you were on the side of demanding evidence. baltec has made a claim and now needs to back it up with actual evidence, is that not right?


Its funny how the poster of original comment I answered to doesn't have to show any evidence yet when I point out a very well known event that took place at a time when there was a higher number of people in game I have to suddenly provide a set of graphs, devs blogs and news reports.

baltec1
Bat Country
Pandemic Horde
#4020 - 2016-01-18 20:39:08 UTC
Malcanis wrote:
Lucas Kell wrote:
baltec1 wrote:
We wiped out 600 miners in less than 2 weeks and shut down all caldari ice mining in high sec space for a month with just our corp back in 2012. Not only did we kill miners by the hundreds we hyper inflated then collapsed the ice market causing hundreds more to lose billions. You cant do that any more.
First off, this is not evidence, it's an anecdote.

Secondly, are you saying that in the recent Burn Amarr didn't do better? Over 200 freighters in a couple of days.

And hey, Tippia, I thought you were on the side of demanding evidence. baltec has made a claim and now needs to back it up with actual evidence, is that not right?


Well the Ice mining thing definitely jiggered with ice and ice product prices


Not to mention the flood of "save us CCP" threads by miners who just couldn't grasp the fact that their own refusal to fit a tank was the only problem. It was a golden age for threadnoughts.