EVE General Discussion

Tippia, Why do you think demand for PLEX has gone down?

Tippia, Why do you think demand for PLEX purchased on the Eve market has gone down?

It's a shame to see that CCP has decided to manipulate the PLEX market to get themselves more money.

They must really need it.

It's also a shame that we can't prove they aren't manipulating the plex market, that we can only speculate and try to pass off our opinions as facts.

Because they totally would, it would be in their best interests, of course.

Everyone knows this, well except for the few people with ailments that are rude to talk about in public.

Political correctness for thee, but not for me.

Their cost to generate the pixels that correspond to a PLEX is effectively irrelevant; however, their revenue being predicated on a certain percentage of their income coming from the more-valuable (PLEX) avenue over the less valuable (sub, especially long-term sub) is what you will need to contend with.

It's quite possible that reducing PLEX to a level closer to that of sub cost would not bring in or retain sufficient subscribers to off-set the loss and there's no way you can accurately model that with the information we have.

I understand that. The problem is that you're mixing them up in a very unclear way in your graph and not actually displaying what a supply-demand graph normally shows.

You list the RL price, so we have to assume that the rest is RL as well, but that's where the problem starts: what you're displaying is not actually a market. There is no supply-demand intercept that determines price, and neither supply nor demand are determined by the quantity on the (non)market. Demand may be determined by the quantities available on the in-game market, but then you have the unclear market mixing I'm talking about. It could just be that you need to label each quantity to explain which market you're referring to in order to clear the matter up.

But that's just it: your graph doesn't really show this.

First, I don't confuse quantity and demand — I'm saying that if this is showing the RL (non)market, which seems reasonable since we're looking at the RL price, then the two are the same: the elasticity means that the demand is the quantity. The two follow in complete lock-step, which goes against intuition and doesn't let us say which is a function of which. The intersection between supply and demand that would normally let us derive an optimal price or expected quantity is entirely arbitrary since the price is fixed, and demand/quantity can be anything along that axis… until we figure out what it is that actually determines the fluctuations in demand and/or quantity so we can put the right value in, which that chart does not let us do. It should actually just be a single line going in the wrong direction trying to intersect with infinity.

That's exactly it: it isn't a market. It's a fixed cost and an infinite supply. No matter how demand moves, those two will not change.

Sure it can. No matter what, it is always (i.e. constantly) infinite. Nothing affects it short of CCP discontinuing the program.

Semantics aside, we're left with the same fundamental problem regardless: we can either see it as the intersection being completely arbitrary because demand will never intersect with the unlimited supply; or it being completely arbitrary because the completely elastic supply intersects with demand at every point. We end up with a useless non-answer either way.

I know. That was kind of the point.
It's an illustration of what the RL (non)market of PLEX looks like and why we can't use supply-demand analysis on that part, at least not in isolation. We have to start elsewhere.

It provides us with one insight: that out of game, and in isolation, demand ≡ quantity, which is completely contrary to how it should be. To resolve this little paradox, we have to figure out a way to determine what quantity and demand actually look like, and we have to look at the in-game market for that. This will most likely also unveil the fact that the two are not equivalent and that we can indeed set up a regular demand-quantity relationship. With that in hand, we could conceivably go back to the RL market and start experimenting with how quantity would be affected by different price points. We're still not really looking at a market, though, we'd still be looking for a (different) fixed price and an infinite supply.

I think that we basically agree on everything — I'm just taking issue with your representation of the OOG situation as a market that can be analysed according to supply and demand as one would normally do.

I see what you did there.

Or that there is nothing in game to spend said isk on. No conflict drivers, no shinny things, no capitals, no end game goods.

Deflation is starting to show up in several areas of the market recently, not just T3 prices, T2 mods and rigs, but also in certain mineral and ice markets as well. Pith/Gist stuff was just the beginning. Even the LP store for SoE is taking a hit right now.

Everything is costing less on the market, there is less need to buy it and there is less people buying. Thus Plex rises because Out of game supply is diminished, and in game demand increases (Not going to pay real money myself to play a game im not enjoying, but will use in-game assets to keep the skill queue running)

I am not mixing anything. That graph with the horizontal supply is the RL PLEX market. The subsequent graphs are the in-game market, which I note rather explicitly by writing something to the effect, “The effect on the in-game market….”

Why do you keep calling the RL market a non-market? It is a market. A commodity is sold there are buyers and there is a seller. It’s pretty obvious, it is a market.

“The elasticity means that the demand is the quantity”? I’m sorry but what? And if demand is identical to quantity…are you implying that the demand is perfectly inelastic

The in-game market is related to the RL market and vice-versa. As the in-game price goes up, the RL implicit exchange rate changes so that ISK becomes relatively cheaper—i.e. people using PLEX to fatten their wallet will find RL PLEX relatively cheaper. And if there is a change in RL demand (e.g. fewer players buying PLEX because they have left the game) then that will have an effect on the in-game market (e.g. a price increase). There are definitely feedbacks between the two, but that does not mean that standard supply and demand analysis cannot be used to show why prices can be going up for reasons no more nefarious than fewer players reducing the demand in the RL market, which then translate into a reduced supply in game, and then adding on the inclusion of additional items people buy in game with PLEX causing an increase in demand (outward shift). All of these would result in price increases. All the various threads about PLEX prices and speculation, hoarding, manipulation, and the like are just errant nonsense that never have a coherent story behind them. Just kooky ranting by people who are annoyed that they can no longer afford the PLEX and play for “free”.

Your (not so) hidden agenda is showing.