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Bitter Vet Retention

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Market McSelling Alt
Doomheim
#81 - 2015-08-07 22:51:56 UTC
DaReaper wrote:
Market McSelling Alt wrote:
Nicolai Serkanner wrote:
Market McSelling Alt wrote:


Obviously the majority opinion now is something along the lines of "it is beyond repair" or "I am tired of waiting for it to be great" or that it never was as great as we thought it was, there just wasn't anything else.


Please show me the polls which proves this statement.



http://eve-offline.net/?server=tranquility

There ya go... Spin it, I dare ya



spin that? easy.

all that shows is that there are less people logging in.

*looks outside* yea its stunning outside, if i was not at work i'd be at the beach. And i'm an eve addict.

People love to use eve-offline as some 'see eve is dying' but the ONLY thing eve-offline shows is how many players are currently logged in. It does;t show the number of people not logged in but still paying for the game. It doens;t show opinion. It does;t prove anything except fewer people are playing eve at this present moment. Any OTHER reason you try to devise form the graph is pure speculation at best.


Oh good, I thought for a second it didn't show that we were down from last summer. Since that was your excuse, we should easily surpass the averages last July and August right?

That graph shows total users logged in, and derives from that the player average. You can say some people sub but don't log, or some people skill queue while they are on holiday, but not everyone. It is called a trend, and the trend is you are wrong. For whatever reason you want to choose, people are leaving the game, people are playing less.

So yes, it cannot be a majority opinion that the game is great. You could have made that argument back in 12' or 13' but not today. Eve's lowest months are historically Oct/Nov by the way... so much for good weather.

CCP Quant: Of all those who logon in Eve, 1.5% do Incursions, 13.8% PVP and 19.2% run Missions while 22.4% mine.

40.7% Join a fleet. The idea that Eve is a PVP game is false, the social fabric is in Missions and Mining.
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#82 - 2015-08-07 22:57:54 UTC
Market McSelling Alt wrote:
Eve's lowest months are historically Oct/Nov by the way... so much for good weather.

Which years do you base that on?
Hal Morsh
Doomheim
#83 - 2015-08-07 22:58:05 UTC
I like the game. I also noticed a LOT of returning people confused when they were in an NPC corp. I recently went to lowsec to pop some people and notice I just won a bit of PVP against people who joined this year.


I'd say EVE is fine in my opinion.

Oh, I perfectly understand, Hal Morsh — a mission like this requires courage, skill, and heroism… qualities you are clearly lacking. Have you forgotten you're one of the bloody immortals!?
DaReaper
Net 7
Cannon.Fodder
#84 - 2015-08-07 23:10:55 UTC  |  Edited by: DaReaper
Market McSelling Alt wrote:
DaReaper wrote:
Market McSelling Alt wrote:
Nicolai Serkanner wrote:
Market McSelling Alt wrote:


Obviously the majority opinion now is something along the lines of "it is beyond repair" or "I am tired of waiting for it to be great" or that it never was as great as we thought it was, there just wasn't anything else.


Please show me the polls which proves this statement.



http://eve-offline.net/?server=tranquility

There ya go... Spin it, I dare ya



spin that? easy.

all that shows is that there are less people logging in.

*looks outside* yea its stunning outside, if i was not at work i'd be at the beach. And i'm an eve addict.

People love to use eve-offline as some 'see eve is dying' but the ONLY thing eve-offline shows is how many players are currently logged in. It does;t show the number of people not logged in but still paying for the game. It doens;t show opinion. It does;t prove anything except fewer people are playing eve at this present moment. Any OTHER reason you try to devise form the graph is pure speculation at best.


Oh good, I thought for a second it didn't show that we were down from last summer. Since that was your excuse, we should easily surpass the averages last July and August right?

That graph shows total users logged in, and derives from that the player average. You can say some people sub but don't log, or some people skill queue while they are on holiday, but not everyone. It is called a trend, and the trend is you are wrong. For whatever reason you want to choose, people are leaving the game, people are playing less.

So yes, it cannot be a majority opinion that the game is great. You could have made that argument back in 12' or 13' but not today. Eve's lowest months are historically Oct/Nov by the way... so much for good weather.



thats not my excuse, as i have no excuse. All eve-offline shows is less people logged in. can you, from that graph, with no other information, say there are less people playing eve? (and by playing i don;t mean online right now, i mean subbed)

i'll answer for you... no you can not. You can assume they are down subs and less people are playing eve, but the reasons why that might be you cna;'t prove either. It coudl simply be that this is a rare summer, and as california has had awesome weather this past year (stupid drought) it might just be people on holiday. It could be people tired of eve and quit, it could be people went 'you know what... i'm gonna take a break till they figure a few things out, but i'm paid for the year so meh' Thats the key. There are a lot of factors coming into play into that number. If you actually look at the graph you have a drop in players logged in in march 2014 till june 2014 when it stableizes. then eve is roughly stable till april 1st of this year. If you actually tighten the map up, the average drop is not until may, which is the start of summer. The reasons for the drops could be anything. you coudl of had players shed alts, multiboxing ban coudl of caught up (players could of been using alts unti they expired) players quit for whatever reason. The point is, this trend is new, and only actually started in 2014. Why? who knows. My guess if i took an educated one, is lots and lots and lots of alt sheding. My point is, there is zero causailty that can be found form that graph. People left, why? idk.

My opinion is we will see the dip go untill the end of summer (around oct) it will start to stablize, and then by then end of this year, will rise due to some things int he pipe. and rise more by then end of next year. this si a rebuilding year, as will be next. EVe will shed accounts, but should rebound nicely. and if not, then ccp will have two new rev streams anyway. So i'm not that worried, nor do i care.

as long as i can log into TQ i shall. simple as that,

OMG Comet Mining idea!!! Comet Mining!

Eve For life.
Market McSelling Alt
Doomheim
#85 - 2015-08-07 23:28:36 UTC
DaReaper wrote:


thats not my excuse, as i have no excuse. All eve-offline shows is less people logged in. can you, from that graph, with no other information, say there are less people playing eve? (and by playing i don;t mean online right now, i mean subbed)


Well we do have more information. The revenue report from CCP matches pretty close the decline in the average player numbers. So we know they are losing subs. Also we know the voting totals for the CSM and what they called the participation levels. So yeah, Eve-Offline.net is pretty close to the overall picture of the health of the game at least to this point.


As for what years I base Oct/Nov as the lowest? You can see that even in years of growth it holds true.

Oct 1 week of 2013 year was lowest (not counting Christmas)
Oct-November saw the lowest 3 week in a row during 2012 (July had a one week down spike)
2011 was a year that saw Oct steady at the lowest 4 weeks followed by a huge drop off the first week of Nov.
2010 we had growth with a drop off starting around late July, dropping into October and rising sharply at the end of the year.

And on and on and on each year. Growth was halted or reversed at the end of summer, with the low points almost every single year in the last weeks of October or first weeks of November.

2014 was the exception, but that is because we saw a decline the whole year. It was steady slow drop, with Oct being a period of very low activity, but everything was lower that year.

I don't understand the head in sand approach to the forums I am seeing.

CCP Quant: Of all those who logon in Eve, 1.5% do Incursions, 13.8% PVP and 19.2% run Missions while 22.4% mine.

40.7% Join a fleet. The idea that Eve is a PVP game is false, the social fabric is in Missions and Mining.
DaReaper
Net 7
Cannon.Fodder
#86 - 2015-08-07 23:31:12 UTC
Now if we want to get REALLY technical... CCP revenue for 2014 was down about 10%. According to an artical someone did (i'll have to hunt for it, if you want to find it use google) But a big chunk of that could of been the rouge wedding. based on the fiuve year graph, you have a drop as i said in march of 2014, the number of players goes from low 50k's to low 40k's so eve loses 1/5th of its logge din players, but ccps total revenue for 2014 was only down 10%. Thats even with dust not being profitable.

Dust is profitable this year, according to CCP in feb. So if they should not be down as much in rev this year. (again all theory, i'm not an acocuntant or CCP CFO)

My point really comes down to this:

1) eve offlines shows oyu nothing of value beyone number of players online right now. you cna crystal ball that till your hearts content but you cna;t prove anything past that.

2) who cares?

3) if you are having fun then don;t worry about it and play the ******* game

4) and if you are not.. then you are here why?

To keep 'bitter vets' they need new stuff to try. While some will say fozzie sov is a failure, i think its not finished being worked on. and structures which should be out by then end of the year will make a lot of people come back.

But i have been wrong before, i just don't care.

OMG Comet Mining idea!!! Comet Mining!

Eve For life.
DaReaper
Net 7
Cannon.Fodder
#87 - 2015-08-07 23:32:47 UTC
Market McSelling Alt wrote:
DaReaper wrote:


thats not my excuse, as i have no excuse. All eve-offline shows is less people logged in. can you, from that graph, with no other information, say there are less people playing eve? (and by playing i don;t mean online right now, i mean subbed)




I don't understand the head in sand approach to the forums I am seeing.



thanks easy.. we don;t care? I cna;t control what ccp does. i just give them money. If you have a silver bullet you think cna fix eve, post it int he Fni forums or go to www.ccpgames.com/jobs and apply =P

otherwise.. who cares?

OMG Comet Mining idea!!! Comet Mining!

Eve For life.
Market McSelling Alt
Doomheim
#88 - 2015-08-07 23:36:07 UTC  |  Edited by: Market McSelling Alt
DaReaper wrote:
Now if we want to get REALLY technical... CCP revenue for 2014 was down about 10%. According to an artical someone did (i'll have to hunt for it, if you want to find it use google) But a big chunk of that could of been the rouge wedding. based on the fiuve year graph, you have a drop as i said in march of 2014, the number of players goes from low 50k's to low 40k's so eve loses 1/5th of its logge din players, but ccps total revenue for 2014 was only down 10%. Thats even with dust not being profitable.

Dust is profitable this year, according to CCP in feb. So if they should not be down as much in rev this year. (again all theory, i'm not an acocuntant or CCP CFO)

My point really comes down to this:

1) eve offlines shows oyu nothing of value beyone number of players online right now. you cna crystal ball that till your hearts content but you cna;t prove anything past that.

2) who cares?

3) if you are having fun then don;t worry about it and play the ******* game

4) and if you are not.. then you are here why?

To keep 'bitter vets' they need new stuff to try. While some will say fozzie sov is a failure, i think its not finished being worked on. and structures which should be out by then end of the year will make a lot of people come back.

But i have been wrong before, i just don't care.


Revenues fell 10.6% for the year, but they fell over 19% in the second half of the year alone. The trend in player numbers this year would put estimates that we could see a 20-30% yearly drop for 2015.

Also, they did so with a decimated employee base. they laid off a very large number of staff... 610 to 339. Sugar coat it all you want.

PS... by the way, while we talk about it. CCP enjoyed growth in the China market with revenues up 3.5%... so they lost more than 10% from TQ, they lost closer to 12% and made up some from China.

CCP Quant: Of all those who logon in Eve, 1.5% do Incursions, 13.8% PVP and 19.2% run Missions while 22.4% mine.

40.7% Join a fleet. The idea that Eve is a PVP game is false, the social fabric is in Missions and Mining.
Hal Morsh
Doomheim
#89 - 2015-08-07 23:37:41 UTC
Even if EVE is dying. CCP is doing what they can to keep EVE going, so all we can really do is hope they are successful.

Oh, I perfectly understand, Hal Morsh — a mission like this requires courage, skill, and heroism… qualities you are clearly lacking. Have you forgotten you're one of the bloody immortals!?
Market McSelling Alt
Doomheim
#90 - 2015-08-07 23:40:51 UTC
Hal Morsh wrote:
Even if EVE is dying. CCP is doing what they can to keep EVE going, so all we can really do is hope they are successful.


I pray they are successful, because if they keep adding debt (50% increase year over year) and their cash flow continues to be slim to none, they will be bought by another company... probably one we don't want running this game.

CCP Quant: Of all those who logon in Eve, 1.5% do Incursions, 13.8% PVP and 19.2% run Missions while 22.4% mine.

40.7% Join a fleet. The idea that Eve is a PVP game is false, the social fabric is in Missions and Mining.
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#91 - 2015-08-07 23:56:52 UTC  |  Edited by: Tippia
Market McSelling Alt wrote:
As for what years I base Oct/Nov as the lowest? You can see that even in years of growth it holds true.

Oct 1 week of 2013 year was lowest (not counting Christmas)
Oct-November saw the lowest 3 week in a row during 2012 (July had a one week down spike)
2011 was a year that saw Oct steady at the lowest 4 weeks followed by a huge drop off the first week of Nov.
2010 we had growth with a drop off starting around late July, dropping into October and rising sharply at the end of the year.

And on and on and on each year.
No.

2006 – growth after the summer (lowest numbers were in April)
2007 – growth after the summer (lowest numbers were in January and April)
2008 – growth after the summer (lowest numbers were in April)
2009 – growth after the summer (lowest numbers were in January and June)
2010 – growth after the summer (lowest numbers were in April)
2011 – continued decline due to Incarna (lowest numbers were just before Crucible)
2012 – growth after the summer (May–June all saw lower numbers)
2013 – growth after general summer/fall decline (September saw lower numbers)
2014 – growth after the summer (lower numbers were in in July and September)

There is nothing even remotely “historical” about October/November. There are two years when the numbers are properly down during that period. In 2011, they continuously went down from Incursions onward, and crashed properly with Incarna, and suffered additional hits due to a couple of very long anticipated AAA-title launches during the fall that broke a budding recovery in anticipation of Crucible. In 2013, they plateaued in time for Odyssey in September and then slowly yo-yo:ed their way back up to the release of Rubicon in November, the recovery again colliding with a huge AAA-release.


By the way, the 2011 numbers are a case study of player behaviour in response to in- and out-of-game stimuli. Setting aside the huge Incursion-Incarna crash, there are three significant divots and bumps in the numbers. 1) The Septermber/October week-end, which is when the first Goonswarm ice interdiction took place (significant dip — “onoz, log in and you diiiie!”); 2) the week just after, which is when Hilmar's apology was published, followed by a ton of devblogs about the refocusing on FIS in Crucible (immediate recovery after 6 months of decline — “wohoo, EVE is back on track, let's play it!”); and 3) the swan-dive the first week in November, which was the Christmas-season AAA release week… also known as Skyrim week {“what's EVE again?”).
Vortexo VonBrenner
Doomheim
#92 - 2015-08-08 00:57:41 UTC
DaReaper wrote:
as long as i can log into TQ i shall. simple as that,

^^ this
Seems people have been "proving" EvE is dying and on it's last for a long time now...
Someday EvE will end, of course, but soon (tm) seems unlikely.










EvE security zones in pictures

EvE quick reference pdf

EvE links
Market McSelling Alt
Doomheim
#93 - 2015-08-08 01:06:34 UTC
Tippia wrote:
Market McSelling Alt wrote:
As for what years I base Oct/Nov as the lowest? You can see that even in years of growth it holds true.

Oct 1 week of 2013 year was lowest (not counting Christmas)
Oct-November saw the lowest 3 week in a row during 2012 (July had a one week down spike)
2011 was a year that saw Oct steady at the lowest 4 weeks followed by a huge drop off the first week of Nov.
2010 we had growth with a drop off starting around late July, dropping into October and rising sharply at the end of the year.

And on and on and on each year.
No.

2006 – growth after the summer (lowest numbers were in April)
2007 – growth after the summer (lowest numbers were in January and April)
2008 – growth after the summer (lowest numbers were in April)
2009 – growth after the summer (lowest numbers were in January and June)
2010 – growth after the summer (lowest numbers were in April)
2011 – continued decline due to Incarna (lowest numbers were just before Crucible)
2012 – growth after the summer (May–June all saw lower numbers)
2013 – growth after general summer/fall decline (September saw lower numbers)
2014 – growth after the summer (lower numbers were in in July and September)

There is nothing even remotely “historical” about October/November. There are two years when the numbers are properly down during that period. In 2011, they continuously went down from Incursions onward, and crashed properly with Incarna, and suffered additional hits due to a couple of very long anticipated AAA-title launches during the fall that broke a budding recovery in anticipation of Crucible. In 2013, they plateaued in time for Odyssey in September and then slowly yo-yo:ed their way back up to the release of Rubicon in November, the recovery again colliding with a huge AAA-release.


By the way, the 2011 numbers are a case study of player behaviour in response to in- and out-of-game stimuli. Setting aside the huge Incursion-Incarna crash, there are three significant divots and bumps in the numbers. 1) The Septermber/October week-end, which is when the first Goonswarm ice interdiction took place (significant dip — “onoz, log in and you diiiie!”); 2) the week just after, which is when Hilmar's apology was published, followed by a ton of devblogs about the refocusing on FIS in Crucible (immediate recovery after 6 months of decline — “wohoo, EVE is back on track, let's play it!”); and 3) the swan-dive the first week in November, which was the Christmas-season AAA release week… also known as Skyrim week {“what's EVE again?”).


You are joking right.... you don't see the 2007 complete fall off in November?

The lull and fall offs in 2008 in November?

2009, same thing again, November being the dip and fall offs?

Are you insane or just looking at different charts? November in particular has been the worst month of eve when you take out Christmas week and first week of July (USA Holiday). You can't deny that

CCP Quant: Of all those who logon in Eve, 1.5% do Incursions, 13.8% PVP and 19.2% run Missions while 22.4% mine.

40.7% Join a fleet. The idea that Eve is a PVP game is false, the social fabric is in Missions and Mining.
Arthur Direction
I Accidentally Basilisks
#94 - 2015-08-08 01:12:47 UTC
Tippia wrote:
Market McSelling Alt wrote:
As for what years I base Oct/Nov as the lowest? You can see that even in years of growth it holds true.

Oct 1 week of 2013 year was lowest (not counting Christmas)
Oct-November saw the lowest 3 week in a row during 2012 (July had a one week down spike)
2011 was a year that saw Oct steady at the lowest 4 weeks followed by a huge drop off the first week of Nov.
2010 we had growth with a drop off starting around late July, dropping into October and rising sharply at the end of the year.

And on and on and on each year.
No.

2006 – growth after the summer (lowest numbers were in April)
2007 – growth after the summer (lowest numbers were in January and April)
2008 – growth after the summer (lowest numbers were in April)
2009 – growth after the summer (lowest numbers were in January and June)
2010 – growth after the summer (lowest numbers were in April)
2011 – continued decline due to Incarna (lowest numbers were just before Crucible)
2012 – growth after the summer (May–June all saw lower numbers)
2013 – growth after general summer/fall decline (September saw lower numbers)
2014 – growth after the summer (lower numbers were in in July and September)

There is nothing even remotely “historical” about October/November. There are two years when the numbers are properly down during that period. In 2011, they continuously went down from Incursions onward, and crashed properly with Incarna, and suffered additional hits due to a couple of very long anticipated AAA-title launches during the fall that broke a budding recovery in anticipation of Crucible. In 2013, they plateaued in time for Odyssey in September and then slowly yo-yo:ed their way back up to the release of Rubicon in November, the recovery again colliding with a huge AAA-release.


By the way, the 2011 numbers are a case study of player behaviour in response to in- and out-of-game stimuli. Setting aside the huge Incursion-Incarna crash, there are three significant divots and bumps in the numbers. 1) The Septermber/October week-end, which is when the first Goonswarm ice interdiction took place (significant dip — “onoz, log in and you diiiie!”); 2) the week just after, which is when Hilmar's apology was published, followed by a ton of devblogs about the refocusing on FIS in Crucible (immediate recovery after 6 months of decline — “wohoo, EVE is back on track, let's play it!”); and 3) the swan-dive the first week in November, which was the Christmas-season AAA release week… also known as Skyrim week {“what's EVE again?”).



It doesn't look like either of you are right. If I look at the website posted it seems Eve-O has a double dip each year, in the early summer and again in the early fall. Probably has more to do with patch timing than anything really. But no smoking gun here this time Tip, I do not see all the things you posted, nor do I see the Alt's theory either.

That being said, I will keep playing while the servers are running, but I prefer to have a rich gaming experience and this year has proven to be hard to log in and have fun.

See I am an alt, I provide neutral remote rep to my master, my master pew pews things... there isn't very many targets left to pew anymore... so my master is probably going to let my account close soon.

Makes me a sad alt... and takes another potential "number" out of the game.
Mr Epeen
It's All About Me
#95 - 2015-08-08 01:23:18 UTC
Arthur Direction wrote:
Tippia wrote:
Market McSelling Alt wrote:
As for what years I base Oct/Nov as the lowest? You can see that even in years of growth it holds true.

Oct 1 week of 2013 year was lowest (not counting Christmas)
Oct-November saw the lowest 3 week in a row during 2012 (July had a one week down spike)
2011 was a year that saw Oct steady at the lowest 4 weeks followed by a huge drop off the first week of Nov.
2010 we had growth with a drop off starting around late July, dropping into October and rising sharply at the end of the year.

And on and on and on each year.
No.

2006 – growth after the summer (lowest numbers were in April)
2007 – growth after the summer (lowest numbers were in January and April)
2008 – growth after the summer (lowest numbers were in April)
2009 – growth after the summer (lowest numbers were in January and June)
2010 – growth after the summer (lowest numbers were in April)
2011 – continued decline due to Incarna (lowest numbers were just before Crucible)
2012 – growth after the summer (May–June all saw lower numbers)
2013 – growth after general summer/fall decline (September saw lower numbers)
2014 – growth after the summer (lower numbers were in in July and September)

There is nothing even remotely “historical” about October/November. There are two years when the numbers are properly down during that period. In 2011, they continuously went down from Incursions onward, and crashed properly with Incarna, and suffered additional hits due to a couple of very long anticipated AAA-title launches during the fall that broke a budding recovery in anticipation of Crucible. In 2013, they plateaued in time for Odyssey in September and then slowly yo-yo:ed their way back up to the release of Rubicon in November, the recovery again colliding with a huge AAA-release.


By the way, the 2011 numbers are a case study of player behaviour in response to in- and out-of-game stimuli. Setting aside the huge Incursion-Incarna crash, there are three significant divots and bumps in the numbers. 1) The Septermber/October week-end, which is when the first Goonswarm ice interdiction took place (significant dip — “onoz, log in and you diiiie!”); 2) the week just after, which is when Hilmar's apology was published, followed by a ton of devblogs about the refocusing on FIS in Crucible (immediate recovery after 6 months of decline — “wohoo, EVE is back on track, let's play it!”); and 3) the swan-dive the first week in November, which was the Christmas-season AAA release week… also known as Skyrim week {“what's EVE again?”).



It doesn't look like either of you are right. If I look at the website posted it seems Eve-O has a double dip each year, in the early summer and again in the early fall. Probably has more to do with patch timing than anything really. But no smoking gun here this time Tip, I do not see all the things you posted, nor do I see the Alt's theory either.

That being said, I will keep playing while the servers are running, but I prefer to have a rich gaming experience and this year has proven to be hard to log in and have fun.

See I am an alt, I provide neutral remote rep to my master, my master pew pews things... there isn't very many targets left to pew anymore... so my master is probably going to let my account close soon.

Makes me a sad alt... and takes another potential "number" out of the game.


One thing the forum people here are good at is all looking at the same thing and seeing something completely different.

It's not how they interpret the facts which is fine and offers good debate. They don't even see the facts in the first place. They seem to have an answer and then force themselves to see what isn't there to support it.

It makes for fun reading though.

Mr Epeen Cool
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#96 - 2015-08-08 01:29:59 UTC  |  Edited by: Tippia
Market McSelling Alt wrote:
You are joking right.... you don't see the 2007 complete fall off in November?

You mean the one that doesn't even reach the (much lower) summer numbers? The one that is handily beaten by a far larger drop in September?

Quote:
The lull and fall offs in 2008 in November?
You mean the one that is handily beaten by January and April/May?

Quote:
2009, same thing again, November being the dip and fall offs?
You mean the one that is an increase over the rest of the summer/autumn season in the buildup towards Dominion?

Quote:
Are you insane or just looking at different charts?
I'm looking at accurate charts, yes. I have an excel file of daily average data covering 6 years from 2006–2012, and daily PCU data from 2011 to today from which I can extract more detailed and less noisy data than you get from the unfiltered eve-offline graphs. In particular, it lets me filter out things like patch days, which up until very recently automatically created dips due to long downtimes, long patch times, and periods of general instability.

So when you make claims such as “Eve's lowest months are historically Oct/Nov”, I know for a fact that you're talking nonsense and blatantly ignoring the many many data points that prove you wrong every year for the last 9 years, with one exception. I also know exactly what caused that one exception. Even if I hadn't put a note in about it at the time when I noticed the anomaly (which it was — even in an already turbulent year — when compared to the history of previous years), it wouldn't really be hard to figure out after the fact either…
Arthur Direction
I Accidentally Basilisks
#97 - 2015-08-08 01:45:34 UTC
Tippia wrote:
Market McSelling Alt wrote:
You are joking right.... you don't see the 2007 complete fall off in November?

You mean the one that doesn't even reach the (much lower) summer numbers? The one that is handily beaten by a far larger drop in September?

Quote:
The lull and fall offs in 2008 in November?
You mean the one that is handily beaten by January and April/May?

Quote:
2009, same thing again, November being the dip and fall offs?
You mean the one that is an increase over the rest of the summer/autumn season in the buildup towards Dominion?

Quote:
Are you insane or just looking at different charts?
I'm looking at accurate charts, yes. I have an excel file of daily average data covering 6 years from 2006–2012, and daily PCU data from 2011 to today from which I can extract more detailed and less noisy data than you get from the unfiltered eve-offline graphs. In particular, it lets me filter out things like patch days, which up until very recently automatically created dips due to long downtimes, long patch times, and periods of general instability.

So when you make claims such as “Eve's lowest months are historically Oct/Nov”, I know for a fact that you're talking nonsense and blatantly ignoring the many many data points that prove you wrong every year for the last 9 years, with one exception. I also know exactly what caused that one exception. Even if I hadn't put a note in about it at the time when I noticed the anomaly (which it was — even in an already turbulent year — when compared to the history of previous years), it wouldn't really be hard to figure out after the fact either…



Wow, looking at your graph here http://eve.beyondreality.se/pics/PopAvgs.png I can now see what that Alt guy is talking about.

Those Autumn numbers are horrible. And every time Eve-O was growing, it was promptly stopped in Autumn with a lack of activity. Maybe saying Fall was the worst time of year for Tranquility isn't the right way of saying it, but for sure Autumn is a downer every single year.
Market McSelling Alt
Doomheim
#98 - 2015-08-08 01:58:41 UTC
Summer Declines

Here you can see summer declines for the last 5 years. Every single year we see Oct1 on the far right being the bottom, every single year the trend line rolling averages continues to fall until December.

May Highs

Here you can see how May each and every year is our peak month. Summer and fall lulls. Sustained lulls in 8 of the years we have been up.

2014 Player activity

Here we can see 2014 October, the low period of the year for online activities. PVP and logging in.

PVP Oct Lows

And finally, PVP activity dies each and every October

Tippia, I respect you often, but not this time. October is our down time of the year. Period

CCP Quant: Of all those who logon in Eve, 1.5% do Incursions, 13.8% PVP and 19.2% run Missions while 22.4% mine.

40.7% Join a fleet. The idea that Eve is a PVP game is false, the social fabric is in Missions and Mining.
Hal Morsh
Doomheim
#99 - 2015-08-08 02:05:10 UTC
He was also mentioning things outside EVE can effect it.


I don't think the game is dying anyways.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSxNW5dDYEY
Why would CCP do that? If EVE was dying?

Oh, I perfectly understand, Hal Morsh — a mission like this requires courage, skill, and heroism… qualities you are clearly lacking. Have you forgotten you're one of the bloody immortals!?
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#100 - 2015-08-08 02:05:58 UTC  |  Edited by: Tippia
Arthur Direction wrote:
Those Autumn numbers are horrible. And every time Eve-O was growing, it was promptly stopped in Autumn with a lack of activity. Maybe saying Fall was the worst time of year for Tranquility isn't the right way of saying it, but for sure Autumn is a downer every single year.

That's a fairer assessment. What's actually going on becomes more noticeable if you compare weekdays to weekends, and correlate with what else is going on at the same time. In particular, what this time of the year tends to exhibit — admittedly very vaguely — is an increased differentiation between average weekday activity, which almost flatlines, and week-end activity, which trends slightly upwards.

The historical pattern is that autumns are growth periods after summer that stagnate and then get a huge boost for the holiday patch (including a period of pre-patch hype). Depending on the year, this is at times dampened out by the holiday AAA schedule, not that those effects are unique to the autumn — SC2 had a similar effect, but it's somewhat hidden by Tyrannis and the server issues that went on at the same time.

Of course, after the growth years up to the winter '10/'11, that pattern was somewhat broken, not just because of an increased wariness of CCP's plans and their alterations to the game, but also since the regularity of summer and winter patching was broken up and replace by a very different hype/disappointment cycle.

Market McSelling Alt wrote:
Tippia, I respect you often, but not this time. October is our down time of the year. Period

No. It's just a period of stagnation as people focus more on work and the ever increasing deadlines that pile up towards the end of the year. It has never been the downtime you describe — that has always happened in the spring (before Incarna) or during the late summer (after Incarna).