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Blood Hideaway

Author
Lulu Lunette
Savage Moon Society
#21 - 2015-05-25 15:55:25 UTC
Donnachadh wrote:
Lulu Lunette wrote:
Omnathious Deninard wrote:
50 is not a sufficient pool in which to draw a accurate conclusion.

And simply because you have not had any luck doesnt mean that everyone has had no luck.


It's actually close to 100. Just started tallying them 50 ago. I think it's more than bad luck. I can get 3/10 and 4/10 just fine

It matters not, the odds do not play favorites.
At one point I scanned and ran 4-6 sites a day, every day for 3 months straight in Gallente space and not once did I get an escalation or an officer spawn. On the other hand my son was doing the same thing in Minmatar space and he averaged one site per day that escalated. So while you are compiling statistics be sure to include these as well.

As you can see your 50 or even 100 sites is an insufficient data set to allow for any meaningful conclusions so I would say for now leave the Wki page alone, or at most add your information as a foot note.


But look at how it's worded:

Quote:
It is suspected that this anomaly may rarely escalate to a Old Meanie - Cultivation Center, DED rating 1/10.


"suspected"

The author didn't know for sure! If you guys want to run them with me, post results and prove it? Big smile My findings are exclusively in Aridia. btw I had some freak luck, got 2 Dark Bloods in a row and one of them yielded a Mid Grade Talisman Alpha.

Which btw they don't state in the loot column!

A footnote would be better than what's there now. Who's qualified to make such changes?

@lunettelulu7

Jeremiah Saken
The Fall of Leviathan
#22 - 2015-05-25 20:57:48 UTC
Donnachadh wrote:
It matters not, the odds do not play favorites.
At one point I scanned and ran 4-6 sites a day, every day for 3 months straight in Gallente space and not once did I get an escalation or an officer spawn. On the other hand my son was doing the same thing in Minmatar space and he averaged one site per day that escalated. So while you are compiling statistics be sure to include these as well.

You can't compare different pirates groups. They changed expeditions some patches ago. Apart from decresing number of jumps and increasing chance for expedition i'm not think i like the changes.

Donnachadh wrote:
As you can see your 50 or even 100 sites is an insufficient data set to allow for any meaningful conclusions so I would say for now leave the Wki page alone, or at most add your information as a foot note.

CCP already changed other escalations from anoms. I've updated some part of them on EvElo. I did tons of BR hideaways, no escalation yet. I don't like the part that we have to explore what's "inside that box". It lead to boredom. Anoms are low end pve. If we do such boring content we have to be sure there are some carrots at the end of that sticks, it doesn't matter what are the chances. Simple yes/no would be sufficient. Scanned sites are completely different matter.

"I am tormented with an everlasting itch for things remote. I love to sail forbidden seas..." - Herman Melville

Donnachadh
United Allegiance of Undesirables
#23 - 2015-05-26 01:46:15 UTC
The intent was to illustrate how fickle odds and random chance can be.

A 5% chance does not mean that you will get 5 escalations if you run 100 sites.
A 5% chance means that there is a 1 in 20 chance that any given site will escalate.
Looking at these in another way common to odds makers you have 19 to 1 odds that any given site will not escalate.

Sometimes those odds work for you and sometimes they work against you.
Just like gambling in Las Vegas you pay you money and take your chances, some time you win, bust most times you loose.
Jeremiah Saken
The Fall of Leviathan
#24 - 2015-05-26 05:41:00 UTC
Donnachadh wrote:
The intent was to illustrate how fickle odds and random chance can be.

I know, but EvElo is outdated. Escalations from other anomalies changed also. I think I'll run some more and label it as unknown in EvElo. We have to be bold as CCP say about it. This could be changed anytime

"I am tormented with an everlasting itch for things remote. I love to sail forbidden seas..." - Herman Melville

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