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Make market speculation more fair

First post
Author
BeBopAReBop RhubarbPie
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#41 - 2015-05-05 03:28:02 UTC
13kr1d1 wrote:
Jayne Fillon wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
Ripard Teg wrote:
So today, we had a new EVE Online record: two major multi-billion ISK market speculation opportunities on the same day... and like virtually all market speculation opportunities in EVE, they were open to EUTZ players only. USTZ players that had to work, AUTZ players that were asleep? Locked out.

The second one today, the CA-3/CA-4 implant announcement, was particularly nasty because a few dozen people were out there with multi-billion buy orders that got themselves bent over a table by CCP today (no, I wasn't one, thank Heaven). Those poor souls won't be recouping their multi-billion ISK investments until EVE is 20 years old, if then. And in the case of the SKINs announcement and the BPO mineral doubling announcement, USTZ and AUTZ players were locked out of multi-trillion ISK market speculation opportunities.

So, here's a very simple fix which CCP can implement to make market speculation a little more fair across time zones:

When CCP is about to announce a change to module, part, or ship X, CCP should cancel all buy and sell orders for that module, part, or ship.

That puts control of commodities back in the hands of whom it quite literally belongs: the sellers. As we saw today, even the short-term impact of this change would be minimal to non-existent. The market would correct within minutes. And it would give all TZs a chance to participate.


This solves the TZ problem....how?

It doesn't. They're not even remotely related. The suggestion is sound, but neither the motivations for nor the benefits from such a change are related to timezones.



How exactly is it not related to timezones?

Person wakes up in Timezone A, sees the news of changes, and market speculates.
Person wakes up after this in Timezone B, sees the changes, and is screwed.

By dumping the modules/ore/whatever back to the seller during an announcement. peopl cant market speculate because theres nothing to buy at a cheap price. Those that would be "screwed sellers" because they wake up too late in the day, they aren't screwed.

I believe that Jayne means that the people on earliest after the news cancelation will still benefit more that people that are late to the party. I may be entirely wrong as this is outside my area of expertise.

Founder of Violet Squadron, a small gang NPSI community! Mail me for more information.

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Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#42 - 2015-05-05 03:43:42 UTC
Kaarous Aldurald wrote:
I know this is probably painful to hear for the kind of people who relentlessly defend afk mining, but in a high priced commodities market, the onus is on you to pay attention to your investment, and watch for fluctuations.

Sometimes, stuff happens when you're asleep. That's part of the game. Don't have all your eggs in one basket, that's a general rule of EVE anyway.


Exactly. Diversify and if you are prepared for the risk...well, don't speculate with what you cannot afford to lose.

Everyone in Eve should be familiar with that last one already.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#43 - 2015-05-05 03:45:24 UTC
BeBopAReBop RhubarbPie wrote:
13kr1d1 wrote:
Jayne Fillon wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
Ripard Teg wrote:
So today, we had a new EVE Online record: two major multi-billion ISK market speculation opportunities on the same day... and like virtually all market speculation opportunities in EVE, they were open to EUTZ players only. USTZ players that had to work, AUTZ players that were asleep? Locked out.

The second one today, the CA-3/CA-4 implant announcement, was particularly nasty because a few dozen people were out there with multi-billion buy orders that got themselves bent over a table by CCP today (no, I wasn't one, thank Heaven). Those poor souls won't be recouping their multi-billion ISK investments until EVE is 20 years old, if then. And in the case of the SKINs announcement and the BPO mineral doubling announcement, USTZ and AUTZ players were locked out of multi-trillion ISK market speculation opportunities.

So, here's a very simple fix which CCP can implement to make market speculation a little more fair across time zones:

When CCP is about to announce a change to module, part, or ship X, CCP should cancel all buy and sell orders for that module, part, or ship.

That puts control of commodities back in the hands of whom it quite literally belongs: the sellers. As we saw today, even the short-term impact of this change would be minimal to non-existent. The market would correct within minutes. And it would give all TZs a chance to participate.


This solves the TZ problem....how?

It doesn't. They're not even remotely related. The suggestion is sound, but neither the motivations for nor the benefits from such a change are related to timezones.



How exactly is it not related to timezones?

Person wakes up in Timezone A, sees the news of changes, and market speculates.
Person wakes up after this in Timezone B, sees the changes, and is screwed.

By dumping the modules/ore/whatever back to the seller during an announcement. peopl cant market speculate because theres nothing to buy at a cheap price. Those that would be "screwed sellers" because they wake up too late in the day, they aren't screwed.

I believe that Jayne means that the people on earliest after the news cancelation will still benefit more that people that are late to the party. I may be entirely wrong as this is outside my area of expertise.


I'm pretty damn sure that is what he meant.

To be quite honest, that somebody got bent over by this is of less concern that EUTZ seems to get a distinct advantage on these announcements. But since CCP Devs pop up all over the place hinting at things to come, maybe it is less of a concern.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Kaarous Aldurald
Black Hydra Consortium.
#44 - 2015-05-05 03:49:38 UTC
Some timezone is going to benefit, one way or the other. If they do go with this asinine suggestion, benefit will just be shifted to whichever timezone is first up after the mass cancel.

This fixes nothing, and accomplishes nothing.

"Verily, I have often laughed at the weaklings who thought themselves good because they had no claws."

One of ours, ten of theirs.

Best Meltdown Ever.

Zan Shiro
Doomheim
#45 - 2015-05-05 04:10:27 UTC
Michael Ignis Archangel wrote:
Michael Ignis Archangel wrote:
One question: if you didn't want to buy it for that price, why did you place an order to buy it at that price?



Self-indulgently returning to this thread to note that no one has answered my question.



you won't get one lol....people don't like when greed backfires. IIRC this not even a new thread. I think the last time ccp dropped CA implants out of the blue some were ranting somewhere on the boards.

buy orders can be your friend, can also be your enemy. Place them wisely. Me my buy orders are usually staple items that are stable price wise. Ammo, non shiny mods, etc. Barring a massive change to say vanilla t1 ammo to make faction ammo worthless I don't see me getting screwed with lots of faction ammo buy orders out at times. And even then...hell if t1 ammo truly kick ass I'd take the loss and say oh well....I get kick ass t1 ammo as a consolation tbh.

High value stuff....I am there to watch them simmer. But that's me. Stuck in deep 0.0, dead tired but yet I watched timers run cold before I logged. If I won't leave a ship in the hundreds of mil isk to dangle and be lost still in space not truly logged off, why the hell would I leave a buy order open that can do the same thing.

The whole tz thing....CCP is working their TZ. If like most enterprise web flows this blog went from writer to editor desk. then to the staging server. webmaster approves (or disapproves) content, sync to production server to be on web. IS the sync acting up...call up the IT slaves. Lots of people in this process. Many I gather like working this in during their normal work hours.

Emiko Rowna
Keys To The Stars
#46 - 2015-05-05 04:27:00 UTC
I was hearing a lot of chatter about inside information being used related to the Skins change. People acting on info even before it is released is a bigger issue if you ask me.

Can anyone speak to this? How valid are the concerns people have voiced?
Black Pedro
Mine.
#47 - 2015-05-05 06:28:13 UTC  |  Edited by: Black Pedro
Kaarous Aldurald wrote:
Some timezone is going to benefit, one way or the other. If they do go with this asinine suggestion, benefit will just be shifted to whichever timezone is first up after the mass cancel.

This fixes nothing, and accomplishes nothing.

Indeed. Someone is always going to benefit or lose whenever a market making change like this is made regardless of if you cancel some orders.

And exactly what orders would you cancel? The CA-3/4 is obvious, but should CCP cancel CA-1/2 as well as demand for them is likely going to be changed by this announcement? Or the other implants that share the same slot as CA-3/4 which will be now in less demand, at least temporarily? Or what about game changes that are less clear? Say CCP tweaks a useless module to make it 50% more useful, or slightly nerfs a popular ship so that it will be less in demand. These changes will move the market, so should CCP cancel these orders too? Where do you draw the line?

Market speculation is high-risk, high-reward. Perhaps CCP should be more aware of this time zone issue (I think they already are to be honest) and stagger the release time of information like this a bit, but cancelling orders to arbitrarily protect some traders (those with buy orders), which will hurt other traders (those with inventory) for no benefit to the game or the market seems like a poor idea all-around.
Kaarous Aldurald
Black Hydra Consortium.
#48 - 2015-05-05 06:37:39 UTC
Clearly, we have to cancel every order on the entire market every time they change just about anything.

The micro warp drive changes, for example, have ramifications with almost every ship in the game.

"Verily, I have often laughed at the weaklings who thought themselves good because they had no claws."

One of ours, ten of theirs.

Best Meltdown Ever.

eBil Tycoon
Empty Wallets
#49 - 2015-05-05 18:27:54 UTC
Market speculation is, by it's very nature, an inherently unfair activity. It allows one to prey on and profit off of the unwillingness or inability of others to do what you are doing. The only way to make it fair is remove it entirely, which in the case of eve would involve devs attempting to program in obscure mechanisms into the market to restrict the flow of activity. In short, no amount of begging or pleading will make it happen. Suck up your losses and learn how to wage economic warfare with the big kids.
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#50 - 2015-05-05 18:32:32 UTC  |  Edited by: Teckos Pech
Kaarous Aldurald wrote:
Clearly, we have to cancel every order on the entire market every time they change just about anything.

The micro warp drive changes, for example, have ramifications with almost every ship in the game.


Well...somebody has been reading Leon Walras.... Big smile

And yes, if we want to get right down to it, since markets are, to varying degrees, integrated to be safe cancel them all. Every. Last. One.

Edit: Forgot the one key word. Ugh

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

eBil Tycoon
Empty Wallets
#51 - 2015-05-05 18:35:33 UTC
Emiko Rowna wrote:
I was hearing a lot of chatter about inside information being used related to the Skins change. People acting on info even before it is released is a bigger issue if you ask me.

Can anyone speak to this? How valid are the concerns people have voiced?

Watch the "confessions of an eve trillionaire" fanfest talk. One of the ways he mentions making the largest amount of his money is by speculating on patch changes. Apparently CCP has no issue with it if they've invited him to discuss it.

Financial PVP--nothing to see here, move along folks.
eBil Tycoon
Empty Wallets
#52 - 2015-05-05 18:40:34 UTC
Teckos Pech wrote:
Kaarous Aldurald wrote:
Clearly, we have to cancel every order on the entire market every time they change just about anything.

The micro warp drive changes, for example, have ramifications with almost every ship in the game.


Well...somebody has been reading Leon Walras.... Big smile

And yes, if we want to get right down to it, since markets are, to varying degrees, to be safe cancel them all. Every. Last. One.

YES please! Cancel the everything. Chaos shall ensue. Chaos is great for profit margins.
Jayne Fillon
#53 - 2015-05-05 19:52:43 UTC
Emiko Rowna wrote:
I was hearing a lot of chatter about inside information being used related to the Skins change. People acting on info even before it is released is a bigger issue if you ask me.

Can anyone speak to this? How valid are the concerns people have voiced?


There was A LOT of speculation going on before the SKINSs devblog was announced since SKINs had been so heavily discussed in the months prior to the announcements. This is the reason why certain skins a la the rokh nugo edition is selling for a fraction of it's aurum value. Many people stocked these ships in advance, either on purpose or coincidentally.

Anyway, if you do have information about people trading on actual insider information instead of just speculation, that needs to be forwarded to internal affairs. It's taken very seriously.

Can't shoot blues if you don't have any. Long Live NPSI.

Ix Method
Doomheim
#54 - 2015-05-05 22:36:05 UTC
We all feel you on this, most of us have come across similar problems with say TV in the US or whatever but everytime people stamp their feet over stuff like this it always feels a little unreasonable. Expecting a company based in EUTZ to cater to every bit of the world with any sort of regularity really is asking a lot.

Travelling at the speed of love.

GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#55 - 2015-05-05 22:43:35 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
Jayne Fillon wrote:
Emiko Rowna wrote:
I was hearing a lot of chatter about inside information being used related to the Skins change. People acting on info even before it is released is a bigger issue if you ask me.

Can anyone speak to this? How valid are the concerns people have voiced?


There was A LOT of speculation going on before the SKINSs devblog was announced since SKINs had been so heavily discussed in the months prior to the announcements. This is the reason why certain skins a la the rokh nugo edition is selling for a fraction of it's aurum value. Many people stocked these ships in advance, either on purpose or coincidentally.


Indeed.

Everyone had months to acquire theirs, plus all market orders were canceled and Broker fees refunded on patch day. Smile On Highend minerals - Fanfest lasted three whole days with no specific details except Something Something, and if my memory serves me well, o7 Show was aired around 21:00 EVT on April 1st. Smile

I am sorry about your Megacytes.

I am sorry about your SKINs.

I am sorry about your MWDs.

Can't disclose what TZ I am in, but I operate around the Planck-time second. Blink

Kaarous Aldurald wrote:
Nevyn Auscent wrote:

Risks should be player market based, not CCP changing the entire foundation based.

So CCP cancelling all orders is the best solution available.


Wrong.

Example, tournament ships, and other semi unique hulls. Their value majorly lies in their being few in number. If CCP announces releasing more of them, you would not be compensated. And rightly so, you're the one over valuing them for your own benefit, why should CCP support your actions in the first place?


Bingo.

Exquisite item valuations and paper profits are just that - make-believe & just paper. Pirate

Did you guys also hear that T2 BPOs are not for producing? Blink

I had someone peddle me a Fury Heavy Missile II BPO for 24bn, with the per-batch profits being 71k ISK, equaling to around 35 mil per month of non-stop production and unchanging input costs. Lol
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#56 - 2015-05-05 23:14:41 UTC  |  Edited by: Teckos Pech
GankYou wrote:
Jayne Fillon wrote:
Emiko Rowna wrote:
I was hearing a lot of chatter about inside information being used related to the Skins change. People acting on info even before it is released is a bigger issue if you ask me.

Can anyone speak to this? How valid are the concerns people have voiced?


There was A LOT of speculation going on before the SKINSs devblog was announced since SKINs had been so heavily discussed in the months prior to the announcements. This is the reason why certain skins a la the rokh nugo edition is selling for a fraction of it's aurum value. Many people stocked these ships in advance, either on purpose or coincidentally.


Indeed.

Everyone had months to acquire theirs, plus all market orders were canceled and Broker fees refunded on patch day. Smile On Highend minerals - Fanfest lasted three whole days with no specific details except Something Something, and if my memory serves me well, o7 Show was aired around 21:00 EVT on April 1st. Smile

I am sorry about your Megacytes.

I am sorry about your SKINs.

I am sorry about your MWDs.

Can't disclose what TZ I am in, but I operate Planck-time second. Blink

Kaarous Aldurald wrote:
Nevyn Auscent wrote:

Risks should be player market based, not CCP changing the entire foundation based.

So CCP cancelling all orders is the best solution available.


Wrong.

Example, tournament ships, and other semi unique hulls. Their value majorly lies in their being few in number. If CCP announces releasing more of them, you would not be compensated. And rightly so, you're the one over valuing them for your own benefit, why should CCP support your actions in the first place?


Bingo.

Exquisite item valuations and paper profits are just that - make-believe & just paper. Pirate

Did you guys also hear that T2 BPOs are not for producing? Blink

I had someone peddle me a Fury Heavy Missile II BPO for 24bn, with the per-batch profits being 71k ISK, equaling to around 35 mil per month of non-stop production and unchanging input costs. Lol


Yeah, off topic a bit, but come to think of it, haven't seen a Get Rid of the Evil T2 BPOs thread in awhile.

Another example of CCP descending from on high and striking low player's wealth. Talk about being bent over.

Sorry Ripard...just not seeing any point to your OP other than the TZ thing. P (There got it back on topic)

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Hakaari Inkuran
State War Academy
Caldari State
#57 - 2015-05-05 23:47:10 UTC
Remove the risk of speculation and you make speculation free money.
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#58 - 2015-05-05 23:58:49 UTC
Hakaari Inkuran wrote:
Remove the risk of speculation and you make speculation free money.


Private profits, public losses.

Who knew Ripard was one of the 1%. P

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

syrokos
harlyq syrokos investment station
#59 - 2015-05-06 00:48:51 UTC
Ripard Teg wrote:
So today, we had a new EVE Online record: two major multi-billion ISK market speculation opportunities on the same day... and like virtually all market speculation opportunities in EVE, they were open to EUTZ players only. USTZ players that had to work, AUTZ players that were asleep? Locked out.

The second one today, the CA-3/CA-4 implant announcement, was particularly nasty because a few dozen people were out there with multi-billion buy orders that got themselves bent over a table by CCP today (no, I wasn't one, thank Heaven). Those poor souls won't be recouping their multi-billion ISK investments until EVE is 20 years old, if then. And in the case of the SKINs announcement and the BPO mineral doubling announcement, USTZ and AUTZ players were locked out of multi-trillion ISK market speculation opportunities.

So, here's a very simple fix which CCP can implement to make market speculation a little more fair across time zones:

When CCP is about to announce a change to module, part, or ship X, CCP should cancel all buy and sell orders for that module, part, or ship.

That puts control of commodities back in the hands of whom it quite literally belongs: the sellers. As we saw today, even the short-term impact of this change would be minimal to non-existent. The market would correct within minutes. And it would give all TZs a chance to participate.

Stop crying life is not fair.
Jenshae Chiroptera
#60 - 2015-05-06 01:52:13 UTC
Not reading the thread.

Cancel orders for a changing item.
Pause the market for that item, (12 hours?) then people can sort themselves out and when the item goes live again, all time zones have had a window to sort out their market orders.

CCP - Building ant hills and magnifying glasses for fat kids

Not even once

EVE is becoming shallow and puerile; it will satisfy neither the veteran nor the "WoW" type crowd in the transition.