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*Nullsec Ore Changes* Lowend Mineral Price Tracking [2015]

First post
Author
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#1 - 2015-04-06 00:18:18 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
Good day. Smile

Following the Nullsec Ore Mining presentation in March 2015 @ Fanfest, there hasn't been any real movements in the Lowend mineral spectrum. More info on the Fanfest here - https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=5594827#post5594827

Here's an excerpt from o7 Show, aired April 1st,

CCP Fozzie wrote:
So it's more profitable... so that you don't need to ship in lowends, and you won't have such access of high ends, that drop the price. We want to give a similar ratio of minerals in nullsec to what you would use to do all the building.

...

We're updating composition ratio of existing ABC ores and every existing ore in nullsecks.


Currently [April 6th, 00:22 EVT] in Jita I'm seeing large-ish volumes of Mexallon, around 435 mln Units, and Pyerite, 1345 mln Units up for sale under 58 ISK p/u and 12.8 ISK p/u,respectivelly, with no demand to match. Also to consider: a large Pyerite sell order of 1400 mln units priced at 12.81 in Amarr, Domain region.

Pyerite - http://eve-markets.net/detail?typeid=35#supply
Mexallon - http://eve-markets.net/detail?typeid=36#supply

In the case of Pyerite, net supply/demand has been going up since the start of the current month of April.

Mexallon, however, has broken the neutral supply/demand balance to the positive side and is still increasing. Smile Last time that happened was around 2012, during the months of May thru December - price peaked around 66 ISK / unit then and started a decline lasting several months, bottoming around 47 ISK p/u.

Some smart people may be making their moves already. This could get very ugly, very fast.

Watch this space. Blink
Derp Durrr
Guerrilla Gardening
The Rogue Consortium
#2 - 2015-04-07 06:08:37 UTC
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Bethan Le Troix
Krusual Investigation Agency
#3 - 2015-04-07 15:22:02 UTC  |  Edited by: Bethan Le Troix
Not really wanting to actively 'bump' one of GankYou additional nullsec propaganda threads. But I will point out in case you hadn't noticed that most people are in the middle of half term and a lot of people have taken the chance to go on holiday to avoid fines from schools if they take their children on holiday during school time.

This is probably one of the main reasons for the market being quiet atm. I'm not entirely sure your propaganda stream is having that much additional effect to CCP Fozzie announcements regarding ore supplies in nullsec & mineral requirements. There has been a slight fall in the price of 'low-ends' but the price decrease is probably able to recover.

What confuses me more is how few people seem to have decided to reprocess their ore before sale rather than compress it ? Nowt as queer as folk as they say.

If low-end mineral prices do collapse as you seemingly want them to it will not be good for the economy of New Eden. CCP Fozzie is probably interfering too far in the player market with the current planned changes. I guess we will just have to watch it happen.
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#4 - 2015-04-07 17:32:10 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
Bethan Le Troix wrote:
There has been a slight fall in the price of 'low-ends' but the price decrease is probably able to recover.


All I'm here for is to humbly record whether that will be the case, sistah. Blink

Thank you for your input. Smile

Bethan Le Troix wrote:

If low-end mineral prices do collapse as you seemingly want them to it will not be good for the economy of New Eden.


On the contrary - in conjunction with the new Sovereignty system, the abundance and the price of the life-blood, which are the basic minerals, will sky-rocket PvP proliferation, and consequently further spaceship demand to levels unseen since the Great Eve War.

Coming to a constellation near you. This Summer. Blink
virm pasuul
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#5 - 2015-04-08 11:54:17 UTC  |  Edited by: virm pasuul
Hypothetical question:

What would happen if null sec became much more, or even totally, self sufficient in terms of mining through production to end explosion?

My answer:
Let's say null sec no longer needed high sec. Everything null sec needed they could self produce and self fulfill.
Stuff exploding drives the economy. If it doesn't explode it lasts forever. Much less stuff explodes in high sec than null.
Null is the engine of Eve's economy. If null didn't need stuff from high sec high sec would crash, there would be no economy in high sec.

It would happen like this:
Null becomes self sufficient. The price of null minerals in high sec goes through the roof. Initially nullers export null minerals to high sec for ISK, but the ISK never flows back to high sec because high sec has nothing null needs. What's the point in building stuff that uses null minerals, or indeed any goods at all, if there are no customers to buy the end product? It would be a heavily biased flow of ISK from high sec to null with little return path. Eventually null stops exporting null minerals to high sec because no one in high sec has the ISK to buy them. Only resources where high sec has an advantage would allow ISK flow back to high sec to complete the loop.
In effect high sec would become the noob zone you got out of as fast as possible.
I am not saying this is an undesirable outcome. To many this might sound like a very healthy future for Eve.

If this did happen I imagine CCP would choose to intervene and upset the apple cart. Stagnation in any part of the game tends to be bad for the game overall. Change and shaking things up is very much in vogue at CCP.

Also what would the freighter gankers do if there are no freighters to gank? :)
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#6 - 2015-04-08 18:19:58 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
virm pasuul wrote:

Also what would the freighter gankers do if there are no freighters to gank? :)


Oh the humanity; the horror! Pirate

However, from my observations capital ship components and/or ores and minerals shipments are a very small portion of these terrorist attacks.
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#7 - 2015-04-09 06:04:43 UTC
The Forge: Mexallon at 56 ISK p/u today on good volume. Smile
Samsara Toldya
Academy of Contradictory Behaviour
#8 - 2015-04-09 07:55:41 UTC
virm pasuul wrote:
Hypothetical question:

What would happen if null sec became much more, or even totally, self sufficient in terms of mining through production to end explosion?


Why would anything change at all?
You are talking about manufacturers doing their job "for the horde!" instead of ISK. "For the horde!" won't pay your PLEX at the end of the month.
Just because minerals might be available no sane manufacturer would switch his production to shiphulls where he'll make 50,000 ISK per hour per slot while he could make more profit exporting his minerals to highsec.

If highsec price > nullsec price: manufacturers will sell in highsec to maximize profits, alliances will have to buy in highsec.
If highsec price < nullsec price: manufacturers will try to sell in nullsec, alliances will still buy in highsec because it's cheaper.

I don't see much patriotic behaviour in nullsec... something like: "We only fly Dominix produced by our alliance members and pay +15% bonus per hull compared to Jita to help our economic grow!"


GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#9 - 2015-04-10 06:34:11 UTC
The Forge: today Mexallon is firmly below the 56 handle, with a large 320 mln units sell order guarding the gates just above it. Blink
Morukk Nuamzzar
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#10 - 2015-04-10 11:09:16 UTC
GankYou wrote:
The Forge: today Mexallon is firmly below the 56 handle, with a large 320 mln units sell order guarding the gates just above it. Blink

"Guarding the gates" with 18 billion...
Really? Cool
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#11 - 2015-04-10 12:38:50 UTC
Come on, it's a slow day. P

Dev blog on this matter should be out in the next two weeks, if at all. Blink
Morukk Nuamzzar
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#12 - 2015-04-10 12:59:59 UTC  |  Edited by: Morukk Nuamzzar
GankYou wrote:
Come on, it's a slow day. P

Dev blog on this matter should be out in the next two weeks, if at all. Blink

I wouldn't be too surprised considering Megacyte buy order went 2k+ overnight on Death Star markets.
virm pasuul
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#13 - 2015-04-10 16:35:53 UTC
I have a feeling in my bones that the megacyte and zydrine prices are not acting rationally.
People seem to be acting very irrationally and for me it's turning into a Dutch Tulip Bubble 1637 style.

I expect it to pop very soon. I'm all out already. I will get back in after the pop.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#14 - 2015-04-10 16:49:58 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
The initial demand is genuine, but someone has to be left holding the bag, when the unexpected details come out. Blink

It's a syndrome, where certain individuals, having missed the initial move where most clued people got in, bid the prices higher in the hopes of quick and decent returns.

Alas, the move soon exhausts itself; the buy orders stop chasing the ask. Smile

To 1300 or 2700? Round and round it goes, where it stops? Not many know. Blink
joyous the
Slippery Penguin
#15 - 2015-04-10 16:57:17 UTC
obligatory sky's the limit post
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#16 - 2015-04-10 17:03:39 UTC
The Forge: 17:00 Eve Time update - Mex still largely below 56 ISK p/u, with support at 54.51, and the next major one being around 50.4 ISK p/u. Smile
March rabbit
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#17 - 2015-04-10 17:11:00 UTC
GankYou wrote:
The Forge: 17:00 Eve Time update - Mex still largely below 56 ISK p/u, with support at 54.51, and the next major one being around 50.4 ISK p/u. Smile

what do you mean by 'with support at'?
Thanks

The Mittani: "the inappropriate drunked joke"

virm pasuul
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#18 - 2015-04-10 17:16:08 UTC  |  Edited by: virm pasuul
Support = noteably large buy orders that stop the price falling further. Once the order is fulfilled that support drops away.

GankYou has been practically blogging them fall away and the price keep dropping and dropping.
He's all excited because whist everyone else is awestruck by megacyte and zydrine sooner or later someone is going to notice the poop is about to hit the fan elsewhere and then there will be a massive panic. The market is already running around like headless chickens. Once this new poopstorm starts people's heads are going to start exploding. He's all excited waiting for the exploding head mess and the ISK he plans to make from it.
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#19 - 2015-04-10 17:25:03 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
March rabbit wrote:
GankYou wrote:
The Forge: 17:00 Eve Time update - Mex still largely below 56 ISK p/u, with support at 54.51, and the next major one being around 50.4 ISK p/u. Smile

what do you mean by 'with support at'?
Thanks


Tangible buy orders with strength determined by volume. Smile

Of course, new buy orders could come up as price develops - whether that is going to be genuine demand for production, or merely a speculative blip is another question. Blink

Hypothetical example for you: A dev blog detailing the adjustments in Nullsec ores comes out tomorrow with no change from the current buy/sell orders at the time of the release - The people would dump their stock of Mexallon to buy orders, with large volume orders acting as support, if only for a time.

However, with such fundamental detail/news release, you'd have to look at really serious volumes on the macro level, and even then, depending on the severity of the news, these buy orders could disappear and price could move 20 ISK down, which would be 34% decline in the case of Mexallon. Smile

virm pasuul wrote:
Initially nullers export null minerals to high sec for ISK, but the ISK never flows back to high sec because high sec has nothing null needs


Correction: Empire exports practically all of the implants, all Federation/Navy/Fleet Frigates, Cruisers, Battlecruisers, Battleships, most low/mid-tier Deadspace modules, practically all of the faction ammo, everything else from the LP store and most Pirate faction Frigates and Cruisers.

Nerf Level 4s. P
Holgrak Blacksmith
Prophets of Motav
#20 - 2015-04-10 20:26:21 UTC
virm pasuul wrote:
I have a feeling in my bones that the megacyte and zydrine prices are not acting rationally.
People seem to be acting very irrationally and for me it's turning into a Dutch Tulip Bubble 1637 style.

I expect it to pop very soon. I'm all out already. I will get back in after the pop.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania


I hope it happens sooner rather than later. I restocked on zydrine a few days before the price spike, but my megacyte pile runs out tomorrow evening.
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