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An upcoming market manipulation

First post
Author
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#1 - 2015-03-26 09:54:18 UTC
Oh hai folks. Some market intel, which you should believe or disbelieve as you see fit.

My alliance intend to perform a supply-side market manipulation of the PI product 'Robotics', with a goal of reducing the price over the medium term. We are among the larger end users gamewide of products produced from Robotics - mostly the various sizes of Neutron Blaster IIs.

You can draw your own conclusions on what to do with any Robotics you may have stockpiled as you see fit.

Why am I telling you this? Because if you engage in panic selling or even a controlled exit from the market we're happy, and we don't think you can counter the market manipulation without exposing yourself to an unacceptable level of loss.


I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

virm pasuul
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#2 - 2015-03-26 10:51:17 UTC
How does this work in practice?
To supply side drive the price down you make a load and flood the market?
If you have the capacity to make enough to drive the price down why do you need to do this in the first place? Just make more to satisfy your own consumption needs.

Ironically if you manage to drive the price down, logically producers switch to something more profitable e.g. gel matrix biopaste, thus reducing supply.
Even if you have the clout to do what you want, and I don't doubt that, then all you do is makes the peaks and troughs of the product larger. Large peaks and troughs attract market traders because the wild swings are great for profiteering.

Anyway good luck with your plans. I shall watch and try to learn :)
Looking forwards to watching your presentation when it goes up.
Kimbeau Surveryor
Stapeley House
#3 - 2015-03-26 11:04:04 UTC
Isn't the point that this post *is* the market manipulation? No other action is needed. :-)
Koniforous
Tauren Transit
#4 - 2015-03-26 11:43:35 UTC
virm pasuul wrote:
How does this work in practice?
To supply side drive the price down you make a load and flood the market?
If you have the capacity to make enough to drive the price down why do you need to do this in the first place? Just make more to satisfy your own consumption needs.

Ironically if you manage to drive the price down, logically producers switch to something more profitable e.g. gel matrix biopaste, thus reducing supply.
Even if you have the clout to do what you want, and I don't doubt that, then all you do is makes the peaks and troughs of the product larger. Large peaks and troughs attract market traders because the wild swings are great for profiteering.

Anyway good luck with your plans. I shall watch and try to learn :)
Looking forwards to watching your presentation when it goes up.

This. And as always I feel like everything you say here, sabriz, is exactly the opposite of what you actually intend, and for whatever reason very obvious.

The ridiculous thing here is that if you are over producing to crash the robotic market then you would benefit more from an upward manipulation. Increasing profits by selling your upward manipulated robotics for isk, and using that isk to purchase the finished product (whatever it is) before the market adjusts the end product's price to the new high on robotics, saving yourself some isk.

What I expect is the end goal here is to have panic sellers quickly dump an oversupply, for a proxy crash, you swoop up the lowered robotics, choke supply around dodixie and hek, manipulate the price upward, and benefit from forum pvp. I'd even go as far as saying that you're aiming for the next several months of wild margins with exaggerated troughs and peaks attracting more traders into an unstable and highly profitable market, so that by the time your stockpiles run dry the market has indeed crashed itself back to or just below the previous norm.

I suspect also that robotics are not the intended manipulation here, but a more easily price affected asset that will help compound the intended manipulation. T2 gank modules? Pos fuel?

Whenever you post I find my tinfoil hat autoequips itself....
virm pasuul
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#5 - 2015-03-26 12:21:35 UTC  |  Edited by: virm pasuul
I notice of the 4 PI materials that go into robotics, 2 are fiddly nonsense ones that are ( in my limited experience ) a pain in the arse to harvest and tend to be in low quantities.
Precious metals, and chiral structures.
Off the top of my head I think these two have been rising in price for a long time on the market.

I think maybe someone or some large organisation has discovered that production of T2 widgets has stopped and it traces back to a shortage of these two PI basic components. The market price of the raw materials to resume large scale production is too high and a plan has been devised to shortcut the problem by crashing the price of the PI end item.
A short term robotics price crash would allow them to resume T2 widget production whilst the organisation re-arrage their PI chain to be able to cope in the medium term and onwards.
It also disguises a little what the actual problem is. You wouldn't want people knowing what the real problem is :)
That's my tin foil best guess anyway.
A short term faked crash to cover them whilst they tackle the issue.
virm pasuul
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#6 - 2015-03-26 12:42:23 UTC  |  Edited by: virm pasuul
Also I have a gut feeling that much more destruction is ahead for stuff in Eve.
We've had a large blue doughnut for a while. It's about time that stuff started exploding way more frequently.
A lot of recent CCP changes seem to be designed to break this happy stagnation.
CCP will keep making these changes until they get their way and more stuff explodes.
Exploding things fuel the economy and drive prices up.
I believe large organisations in Eve may also share this long term view.

CCP has spent a lot of time rebalancing. As the rebalancing completes ( still a lot to go ) CCP is going to be spending more time changing the game with content worth fighting over. That was their stated aim before the rebalancing. To paraphrase, "Let us rebalance, get everything neat and tidy, then we can concentrate on real content."
Even things like the proposed sov changes can be considered rebalancing. Visit all existing game mechanics and see if they need to be improved. CCP Seagull's vision for Eve is strong and infectious, for the most part everyone is excited at what's to come, even if they dislike individual plans. Eve's pulse is strong, new players are discovering Eve at a great time in record numbers. CCP are working hard and delivering excitement and buzz. Change is afoot. Things are going to explode :)

Market prices for a lot of things are very low right now with big changes to Eve on the dim and distant horizon. I see prices across the board going up up and up over time. Maybe slowly at first, but over the next two years stuff is going to start getting expensive.

To tie this rambling post back to the OP thread. Any large organisation in Eve that also believes the same as me will have to start planning and laying groundwork now. I expect behind the scenes there is a number of very small discrete Eve player teams already working on this. Planning for the next few years, building stockpiles, amassing war materials.
Agondray
Avenger Mercenaries
VOID Intergalactic Forces
#7 - 2015-03-26 13:49:10 UTC
ep you heard it here fold, remove all pouf orders from the market, stop all productions. go rat and mission and create your isk until the storm blows over

"Sarcasm is the Recourse of a weak mind." -Dr. Smith

Akrasjel Lanate
Immemorial Coalescence Administration
Immemorial Coalescence
#8 - 2015-03-26 16:08:02 UTC
Define "medium term" Roll

CEO of Lanate Industries

Citizen of Solitude

Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#9 - 2015-03-26 21:19:40 UTC
Kimbeau Surveryor wrote:
Isn't the point that this post *is* the market manipulation? No other action is needed. :-)



No, the market manipulation will be via a similar method to how I intervened when Heavy Neutron Blaster II spiked. Obviously they fell partly for other reasons but the supply increases were considerable and still continue (despite not much of it being from CODE).


As for timeframe - this should take a few weeks to flow through.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#10 - 2015-04-13 04:01:43 UTC
Well, this is starting to show results, albeit a little slower than I'd hoped and the additional supply hasn't really flowed through to Jita prices yet.

Increased production appears to be occurring in a very decentralized fashion and some medium size sell orders are appearing in regions that have a good number of new players in them, as I anticipated. Had hoped for prices to fall of the order 10-15% not of the order 3-5%, but there's still time for that.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Jdestars
Stars Research systems Incorporation
#11 - 2015-07-08 12:10:13 UTC
virm pasuul wrote:


I think maybe someone or some large organisation has discovered that production of T2 widgets has stopped and it traces back to a shortage of these two PI basic components. The market price of the raw materials to resume large scale production is too high and a plan has been devised to shortcut the problem by crashing the price of the PI end item.
A short term robotics price crash would allow them to resume T2 widget production whilst the organisation re-arrage their PI chain to be able to cope in the medium term and onwards.
It also disguises a little what the actual problem is. You wouldn't want people knowing what the real problem is :)
That's my tin foil best guess anyway.
A short term faked crash to cover them whilst they tackle the issue.


if you check market since many year , you have see that the prices of materials correspond to a particular strategy aiming at the exchanges of big volume what does not penalize the average producer .

Your analysis of the bypassing of this strategy which impacts on the big producers is interesting.
But incomplete, indeed all the Raw is affected(touched) what lets think that the target is rather the forward production of produced final intended for other productions and to limit the action of macroter on the quotations

virm pasuul wrote:
.
To tie this rambling post back to the OP thread. Any large organisation in Eve that also believes the same as me will have to start planning and laying groundwork now. I expect behind the scenes there is a number of very small discrete Eve player teams already working on this. Planning for the next few years, building stockpiles, amassing war materials.

or not ;)

flakeys
Doomheim
#12 - 2015-07-08 13:51:46 UTC
Is it throwback wednesday?

We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.

Alexi Stokov
State War Academy
Caldari State
#13 - 2015-07-08 15:36:09 UTC
Nah, way back Wednesday
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#14 - 2015-07-08 22:56:09 UTC
This thread related to market actions I took around the end of March.

I'm somewhat tempted to do this again sometime as the effect wasn't long lasting.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

goodlady Smith
TheCrazy88s
#15 - 2015-07-08 23:30:23 UTC
Interesting ... while 1 side of code asks for isk as they are running out ... the other side manuplates the market .... or did i put 2+2 together and get 5?

Please like my posts it makes me feel better about the time I spend on the forums WTS... Smiles

Umar Umarhabib
Doomheim
#16 - 2015-07-08 23:39:55 UTC  |  Edited by: Umar Umarhabib
goodlady Smith wrote:
Interesting ... while 1 side of code asks for isk as they are running out ... the other side manuplates the market .... or did i put 2+2 together and get 5?


I don't think CODE can do anything to manipulate the price of Robotics in a meaningful way, besides causing a temporary little blip in the market.

The barrier to entry is too low, anyone can do PI anywhere. It's not like Dysprosium in the old days, where you have a few 0.0 alliances controlling all of the supply.

In order to manipulate any market in any meaningful way, you have to be in control of supply - not just available sell orders, but the actual spawning of the item into the game (another example is the Ice interdiction).

If you're not in control of the supply, then you're just manipulating the market at your own expense, and for other people's benefit.
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#17 - 2015-07-09 05:24:11 UTC
Umar Umarhabib wrote:
goodlady Smith wrote:
Interesting ... while 1 side of code asks for isk as they are running out ... the other side manuplates the market .... or did i put 2+2 together and get 5?


I don't think CODE can do anything to manipulate the price of Robotics in a meaningful way, besides causing a temporary little blip in the market.

The barrier to entry is too low, anyone can do PI anywhere. It's not like Dysprosium in the old days, where you have a few 0.0 alliances controlling all of the supply.

In order to manipulate any market in any meaningful way, you have to be in control of supply - not just available sell orders, but the actual spawning of the item into the game (another example is the Ice interdiction).

If you're not in control of the supply, then you're just manipulating the market at your own expense, and for other people's benefit.



I worked to increase supply by paying someone to write a PI guide aimed at new players that focused on Robotics.

Because the primary barrier to entry into PI is player knowledge (not character skillpoints), I was able to increase supply gamewide that way.

Of course the guide has fallen off the radar now (as I haven't been actively pushing the price down for two months) and Robotics have risen a little since.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Fatoria Hemah
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#18 - 2015-07-09 07:04:28 UTC
Someone telling everyone 'oh we will drive down robotics prizes'
-> some ppl believe and sell robotics piles to misterious robotics hoarder and some ppl stop producing robotics due to small prize drop
-> supply gets behind demand
-> robotics prizes increase
-> mysterious hoarder sells robotics and makes quite a good isk/Forum post
->Market Manipulation successfull
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#19 - 2015-07-09 07:38:12 UTC
Fatoria Hemah wrote:
Someone telling everyone 'oh we will drive down robotics prizes'
-> some ppl believe and sell robotics piles to misterious robotics hoarder and some ppl stop producing robotics due to small prize drop
-> supply gets behind demand
-> robotics prizes increase
-> mysterious hoarder sells robotics and makes quite a good isk/Forum post
->Market Manipulation successfull



Nah that wasn't how it worked at all.

It was more like this:

- My alliance needs half a million units for our own use. They are 69k/unit.
- I recognise I don't have the time to meaningfully directly affect supply and can't reduce demand
- So I teach newbies to create Robotics, to indirectly increase supply
- Newbies start making Robotics and selling them on the market. Other suppliers don't adjust to different commodities.
- More supply, constant demand = prices trend downward
- Other suppliers react. Newbies get bored. This effect fizzles over time.
- I stop caring, because I got all the Robotics I needed at 61-63k/unit, and I'm not holding massive stockpiles, just a few tens of thousands of units at a time.
- Robotics creep back up
- Three months pass.
- Someone bumps this thread as my Robotics stockpile falls to the high four digits for the first time in ages.
- I still don't care.

The motive for posting this thread was to undermine investor confidence in Robotics and to alert people to watch the commodity and its prices. It had much less of an impact than the 'Learn to do PI' thread did.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Awkward Pi Duolus
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#20 - 2015-07-09 08:13:03 UTC
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
Oh hai folks. Some market intel, which you should believe or disbelieve as you see fit.

My alliance intend to perform a supply-side market manipulation of the PI product 'Robotics', with a goal of reducing the price over the medium term. We are among the larger end users gamewide of products produced from Robotics - mostly the various sizes of Neutron Blaster IIs.

You can draw your own conclusions on what to do with any Robotics you may have stockpiled as you see fit.

Why am I telling you this? Because if you engage in panic selling or even a controlled exit from the market we're happy, and we don't think you can counter the market manipulation without exposing yourself to an unacceptable level of loss.




God you're a dumb noob if you think this.
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