Market Discussions

It's not SKINS or PLEX.

While the SKINs can also be considered as raw via BPCs, there are other raw resources in mind.

So much raw stuff to buy, must buy all the things.



https://www.fuzzwork.co.uk/market/marketdisplay.php?typeid=34412&regionid=10000002
https://www.fuzzwork.co.uk/market/marketdisplay.php?typeid=34414&regionid=10000002
https://www.fuzzwork.co.uk/market/marketdisplay.php?typeid=34416&regionid=10000002

Looks alright. vOv

I have my Agents working in the T3D Changes thread of the Features & Ideas section, in order to get them nerfed even more, because they are killing the healthy smaller ecosystem. Literally killing.

Even if they reverted back all of the attribute changes, manufacturing these post-patch won't be profitable for many months to come thanks to overproduction which is happening now.

If the other two destroyers come adjusted, then I doubt people would be paying 70m to fly those. However... scrap that - they used to pay twice the amount for frigates.

That new big thing will also be efficient at what it is intended to do. Agreed, double the price of Interdictors could be reasonable for some time.

Back on topic: I find there is no great pressure to sell an asset in Eve, following a major move on the news of fundamental change in its essence. Even the people who got in on Megacyte around the 2480 ISK p/u level, their unrealised loss is only at 24% currently, so long as they don't sell.

In the leveraged other real world beyond The Eve Gate, this move would develop further down as the stakes are very high and the stops are very tight. The absence of short-selling further prevents larger corrections, as the initial buyers, having enjoyed the move up, don't initiate sell positions after closing on their buys.

The only inconvenience, in this particular case of Zyd & Mega, is having your capital locked into these minerals for a few weeks to a month, or whenever the price reaches break even.

GankYou do you still charge consultation fees for market tips?

You can dump the market down to your buy orders, at least to within broker & tax fee range.

I'm in the somewhat awkward position of needing a sizable number of lowend minerals each few days at present which has been interesting.

I keep posting buy orders lower each time.

If Mex falls into the 30s I intend to buy several tens of millions of units for something, if a few bigger market actors have similar ideas we may see some support.

I may have been wrong in my earlier technical analysis of Zydrine.

You see, with liquidity in a particular asset, even whole markets, often being thin, it is hard to ascertain where a particular move ends, and sometimes where another one begins, and I must therefore revise my work in the following manner - http://i.imgur.com/RN4a3YV.png

It is reasonable to assume, then, that true price discovery in this not-exactly clock-work economy, would be along the scope of the average price, and not merely sell orders. Then, the correction does continue, as the current sub-wave "b" of the corrective Wave 2 is about to terminate, or has done so already, which is always followed by a third move down, as the people who went long at the top of the previous bull move (Wave 1 - V), close as many positions as they possibly can.

Buy orders during this time stop chasing the ask price, and are fulfilled quickly and in bulk - speaking of which: When I see 18 million unit single Sell orders on the market - http://i.imgur.com/Ke4ipVX.png - I just close the remaining positions, as I aim not to compete with speculators, especially on this level, http://imgur.com/a/S7eoX#5 - Spot the true demand.

Furthermore, without Lowends rebalancing lower, their share of the cost will not be spread around Zydrine & Megacyte without this glorious event ever happening in the first place, as all Battleship, all Battlecruiser production stops overnight with it becoming unprofitable to manufacture these hulls for a considerable period to come, further depressing the market which barely recovered after the Tiericide.

So, all-in-all, without Entosis links being exploded everywhere - Coming July? Check their BoM! - and without major disruption in Null renter space, coupled with the current JF jump ranges, plus no tangible consumption increase as Tech 1 production enters shock and, in part, suffers paralysis, courtesy of the current Lowend Lion's share of the costs - all this implies Zydrine and Megacyte staying at present levels at best, and likely revisiting sub-1,000/1,800 p/u in the near term.

The lady, who previously had a 41 mil Zyd sell order @ 1510 in Jita and since pulled, but which is now at 70 mil units & counting, will surely supply the economy for months to come - 3,500 battleships-worth under the new inputs!

My only hope right now is that the courier, who yesterday had undertaken to move 10% of my Zyd holdings, will not deliver it to me tonight, as the contract expires in less than 4 hours. One can hope.

If I'm wrong on the whole premise, I will have made less money, if everyone else is right - they'll make more money. Maybe.

considering that technical analysis is completely discredited nonsense, yes, you will frequently fail to predict the future using it

actual analysis: demand for zyd is going up, TRUE
supply will be going down tomorrow, FALSE
these will lead to a new equilibrium price higher than now, GUESS AND OPINION
which will largely depend on what price miners will demand to supply enough zyd from nullsec anoms instead of ratting TRUE

Your post would be much better off pre bubble but that was a large bubble, it could with ease, as it has already done slip, and slip again and again. It won't return to the pre bubble price but the big question is where does it settle in the short medium and long term?

In my opinion it will fall steadily as people start to realise they are sitting on large stockpiles that are consumed slowly but represent large quantities of illiquid assets they are trapped in. They tried to get on the hype train and got in too late, they now can't sell for fear of losing when others were making fortunes. If they hold on long enough the pain will go away but it's going to hurt having significant ISK tied up in a big pile of rotting Zydrine for days, then weeks, maybe even months. Some are going to get so sick of it they just dump it.
Expect to see a lot of market discussion threads asking for loans as smaller traders trapped in Zydrine have nothing liquid to fuel the day to day trading activities.

If a few slips happen in a row it could really drop, and if people panic it could cascade/snowball surprisingly far.