Market Discussions

Soem interesting stuff indeed...

Zydrine - Price History (2008-2015)

Buy order 2008-10-28: 2.5031,34

Zydrine

Megacyte - Price History (2008-2015)

Buy order 2009-08-25: 4.024,22

Megacyte

People over-reacted a little in Domain by buying out the whole stock of Zyd there. It only lasted a few short hours, though.

Quiet month ahead, see you around Summer time.

Update, Mega still holding @ 2159.44 - 1950.06

Zydrine was a flash in the pan, it jumped for a moment then quickly fell back to 1540.00-1080.54 currently holding that level

Update 2: Seems the Mega jump was the real deal, still holding @ 2161.89-1950.06
Zydrine showing support @ 1539.00- 1152.00

Update 3: Zydrine is waking up after taking a quick nap, currently @ 1,845-1236

Only 503,647 of mega left in glorious Providence, someone(s) brought almost all of it

http://i.gyazo.com/ae9fc3f782fade1f24a4ada13b7b8397.png

Since the move has finished, time to recap:

Megacyte: Since having bottomed around 694 ISK p/u in late 2014, it moved 1406 ISK during the month of March and first week of April, setting a avg. bid high of 2,100 ISK p/u. This highend mineral retraced all of it's decline since the Spring-Summer of 2014.

Zydrine's advance from the lows around 395 ISK p/u set a multi-year high around 1488 ISK p/u in the same time period - a 1093 ISK move! This marks prices never seen since the Summer of 2013.

Price retracement lower throughout the month is likely, as current manufacturing consumption does not yet reflect the ask price, along with new supply becoming readily available and in large quantities, as nullsec entities scramble to farm these two minerals.

Sources used: Fuzzywork.co.uk market data, High bid values; Eve-markets for macro analysis.

Exactly that.

Jump Freighters currently carry useful cargo both ways. Of course, on big Mega/Zyd shipments, there will always be a JF available. For the right cut.



Just like the Good Old Days. Poking Arkonor in a Miner II-fit Thorax, then hauling it back to Empire in a frig-ceptor.

Freelancers will be supplying the high ends.

I disagree with you. It would fail if they simply added large quantities of low ends to the null belts because the highest volume low ends would be dirt cheap in High-Sec. It would still be more efficient for null to mine the high end ores and import the lows. In order to accomplish their goal, they'd have to change the mineral composition of the high end ores themselves. And that is what I think they are going to do. You don't have to take out much Zyd/Mega to compensate for adding a large volume of low ends to the ore composition.

Another Fozzie related quote I remember is him saying something to the affect of, "We have to balance for the good of the whole game and not just one area." I think a secondary goal for them will be to revitalize low-sec mining. If null is going to use most of their Zyd/Mega, where is high sec going to get it, low-sec? (If they do it smartly, CCP will account for mission loot reprocessing as well.) But I hope that they realize that low-sec's lack of mining has always been due to a number of human factors. A decade ago, when high end minerals weren't so abundant and low sec mining was nearly worth it, people still didn't mine in low because the returns were a bit too low when coupled with the typical lazy roid-ripping mentality. However, with faction war and highly organized low-sec corps, today's low-sec is now a nightmare compared to what it used to be. With the inefficiencies of ninja mining (dock-up time), low sec ores would have to be worth 3-6 times more than what you can get in high sec.

I think that high-sec ores will take a dive and CCP will again be using medium and high end minerals to bait more people to null security. Remember, they have always said that they want more people in null, always. I think this is because they believe that null's necessary camaraderie keeps players around for longer, which is understandable.

I've noticed that the markets are seem to be in limbo, with the number of buy orders down along with their prices. And that isn't because they are increasing Zyd/Mega usage in BPOs by whatever amount, as anyone can predict what that will do. No, everyone knows that the fate of this 2015's market is hinging on how they implement the null sec ore changes. The people in the best position to profit off of this situation now are those with good knowledge of the mineral volumes (including manufactured exports) that are exported to null.

Because that is all that the high-sec miners can safely mine. They will mine it because 6 mil an hour is better than ninja mining at 30 mil an hour and losing a 250 mil ship every week or two. The vast majority of high-sec miners are risk averse. If high end ore content remains the same (but low-end roids are added), while Mega/Zyd BPO usage goes up, null miners would be more efficient to continue to mine Mega/Zyd in large quantities, use the higher profits to beef up their low-end importation, which would land them back in the same situation they are trying to "fix".

I do not see the contradiction. I've been very specific in my use of ore and minerals, but perhaps you didn't pick up on it. My argument is that they will change the mineral content of high-end ores.

If Null miners get low-end minerals when mining the ABC ores, they won't need to import as much low end compressed ore. But high-sec miners will be left mining what they currently have. Since Null currently imports most of their low end minerals from High, the change will mean a surplus because null doesn't need to import it anymore.

Okay, you got me there, I should have said null ores. Regardless, CCP wants null to have less excess, and that means that high sec won't see as much Mega/Zyd imported or low end minerals exported. That is a double whammy... Make that a triple whammy, since they are drastically increasing Mega/Zyd requirements in almost all BPOs.



When you said that, I thought you meant that you expected them to add veldspar roids to null belts...


No argument there...

Overall, I agree that this has high potential to revitalize Eve. The problem will be that they are changing so many things in Null at once, that they will have trouble 1) figuring out root causes 2) tweaking one system without negatively impacting the others.

Yep, within the next 3-5 releases they are going to be re-sculpting everything that is 0.0. This is going to be one of the biggest events in Eve's history.

Upcoming Changes:
Null belts/ore content (has put the markets in limbo)
Null mineral increase in BPOs
Structures, which primarily affect Null (specifically, ship safety will be re-defined no matter how hard they try to keep it the same)
Sovereignty mechanics

This is too much at once. There will be too much noise/interplay between these new systems to the point that CCP is will be unable to pinpoint the right things to tweak among all the changes that were made in null's interconnected ecosystem.