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So finally PLEX market broke
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Rhastafan
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#41 - 2011-12-06 05:28:47 UTC
Looks like forming a bottom and heading back up; I got 2 at 390 is the lowest buy I have, before that I got 1 at 410 on the way down and I just got 2 at 405.

So it can hold and start climbing back up or the support at 400 can fail and it can start crashing again.

Looking at the history it seems support has only failed to maintain once in the last year (it held at about 335 but failed and the price went down to 320 before heading back up), so based on that I would expect it not to go down from here.

Then again the one time support did fail to maintain was last January; given that the recent upwards move was steeper and longer than normal and we are approaching January it will be interesting to see if history repeats itself.

My call is that even if the current support fails it will get more support at 380 and not go below that. 360 looks possible as a bottom but I am sticking with 380 as my low.
Rhastafan
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#42 - 2011-12-06 05:33:23 UTC
Rasz Lin wrote:
I hate you forum, was going to buy out Dodixie yesterday when it hit 400mil, but started reading this thread ... and 2 hours later Jita was back at 420, now 432 :/


Hmm, why would you buy from sell orders? My above calls are based on buy order prices that are getting filled which is how I evaluate commodity prices.
Sobach
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#43 - 2011-12-06 07:44:26 UTC
Rhastafan wrote:
Rasz Lin wrote:
I hate you forum, was going to buy out Dodixie yesterday when it hit 400mil, but started reading this thread ... and 2 hours later Jita was back at 420, now 432 :/


Hmm, why would you buy from sell orders? My above calls are based on buy order prices that are getting filled which is how I evaluate commodity prices.


Probably because he didn't want to babysit his buy order, which does get annoying fast, esp. in places like Jita
Sator Nyatt
Nulli Secunda Holding
Nulli Secunda
#44 - 2011-12-07 06:08:31 UTC
So, to put forward some speculation:

Is the current movement in plex (rapid succession of peaks in 6 months) a function of a market that has too much money and not enough supply, leading to hire prices, or is it a function of a small number of cashed up speculators pushign the price up quickly?

There is an argument for both - Incursions increasing the amount of isk in the general populace combined with a generic dissatisfaction with CCP making more people cancel real money subscriptions and switch to plex, and less people spending money to buy isk. CCP and illegal isk websites would be able to provide data on real money -> isk conversion rates, but that's unlikely to happen.

Personally, i discount the argument that people were resubbing ahead of crucible, as the trend is pretty consistent for 6 months with speculation, small sell off, speculation, sell off, speculation and then a correction.

What I think is a more likely scenario is a small amount of people (it would have to be small, not alliance level, or people would be bragging about it) with a lot of isk deciding to ramp the market up, with smaller speculators getting on the bandwagon. Then, at a peak, around crucible (good as so many people will be distracted, along with popularity up and new accounts) start dumping. Other speculators see the trend and panic dump too.

Market drops a good 20%, maybe more, and then the original speculators enter the market again with some pretty big buy orders on the market. Like that 100+ 50 billion buy order sitting in jita, along with orders for 50.

The 'lone' speculator or small group of speculators would make sense given some reports of individual trades in the EU TZ driving markets up overnight.
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