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moon goo
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Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#21 - 2015-03-10 01:09:32 UTC
Hilti Enaka wrote:
Zahara Cody wrote:
Goons... http://i.imgur.com/CAALuYF.jpg


horrible to look at. LOL



Also quite an outdated image. When were PLEX last 675M on a buy order?

Back to the OP's question - it strikes me that non-Mexallon minerals will crash with the sov changes, assuming they go through as previously stated. Null alliances will be begging for miners to mine in their space and this might flood the market.

If minerals fall, other hedge items become sensible to stockpile. Moongoo, PI mats, etc.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com
Hilti Enaka
Space Wolves ind.
Solyaris Chtonium
#22 - 2015-03-10 13:39:38 UTC
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
Hilti Enaka wrote:
Zahara Cody wrote:
Goons... http://i.imgur.com/CAALuYF.jpg


horrible to look at. LOL



Also quite an outdated image. When were PLEX last 675M on a buy order?

Back to the OP's question - it strikes me that non-Mexallon minerals will crash with the sov changes, assuming they go through as previously stated. Null alliances will be begging for miners to mine in their space and this might flood the market.

If minerals fall, other hedge items become sensible to stockpile. Moongoo, PI mats, etc.


LOL just seen that in the background.

Also can you see the channel behind the asset tab....
"......


need to stop the Jita economcy that sounds like work

......."

hmmmm.
Anthar Thebess
#23 - 2015-03-10 13:57:04 UTC
Moon minerals are raising because of the upcoming sov changes, and because many people are preparing for them.

For example Goons are nationalizing almost every possible moon that can provide the income.
So they will not be getting any cheaper - you can bet on this.

Transport cost are also higher , fuel is cheaper , but the cost for maintaining cyno network are still very high , and you need 2-3 more mid points - so those are 2-3 plexes more.

Remember that after sov changes moons will be not so easy to keep, as when you loose logistic midpoint moving , or controlling area around it will become more and more time consuming and less appealing.

Low ends will will raise the most , as you can have profit from them when every thing is quiet , otherwise they are just not worth the effort.

Stop discrimination, help in a fight against terrorists

Show your support to The Cause!
Hilti Enaka
Space Wolves ind.
Solyaris Chtonium
#24 - 2015-03-10 14:00:33 UTC  |  Edited by: Hilti Enaka
Anthar Thebess wrote:
Moon minerals are raising because of the upcoming sov changes, and because many people are preparing for them.

For example Goons are nationalizing almost every possible moon that can provide the income.
So they will not be getting any cheaper - you can bet on this.

Transport cost are also higher , fuel is cheaper , but the cost for maintaining cyno network are still very high , and you need 2-3 more mid points - so those are 2-3 plexes more.

Remember that after sov changes moons will be not so easy to keep, as when you loose logistic midpoint moving , or controlling area around it will become more and more time consuming and less appealing.

Low ends will will raise the most , as you can have profit from them when every thing is quiet , otherwise they are just not worth the effort.


I think CCP dropped a complete bollock with this one. Unless the intention is to push t2 out into null. With most T2 needing a combination of all Advanced materials this could potentially crash the entire economy.

Have logistic lines really been hit? It's still relatively easy to move things around null sec.

How long do you think it will be before the cost of raw materials is passed on to advanced materials?
Anthar Thebess
#25 - 2015-03-11 07:59:47 UTC
You are getting this wrong.
First place CCP did not expected that players manage so well in terms of T2 production.
On Chinese server you have titans using meta modules.

It is not so easy to tell why all this stuff is getting more and more expensive. But you can also blame the inflation.
Null sec in current form is just to over farmed to much isk is flowing into the game.

Remember also that this is sandbox and players are dictating prices of each item in the game.

Economy will not be crushed , it will easily adapt.

Stop discrimination, help in a fight against terrorists

Show your support to The Cause!
Hilti Enaka
Space Wolves ind.
Solyaris Chtonium
#26 - 2015-03-11 10:28:14 UTC
Anthar Thebess wrote:
You are getting this wrong.
First place CCP did not expected that players manage so well in terms of T2 production.
On Chinese server you have titans using meta modules.

It is not so easy to tell why all this stuff is getting more and more expensive. But you can also blame the inflation.
Null sec in current form is just to over farmed to much isk is flowing into the game.

Remember also that this is sandbox and players are dictating prices of each item in the game.

Economy will not be crushed , it will easily adapt.


OK,

funny though that some of the advanced moon minerals are now making a loss.
Anthar Thebess
#27 - 2015-03-11 14:16:02 UTC
Hilti Enaka wrote:

OK,

funny though that some of the advanced moon minerals are now making a loss.


Something is on rise - people put new towers and start to mine , at some point there are just to many of those towers, and price stats to drop.
There are people who mine some mineral on 40 towers and sell it once per year , sometimes once per 2 years. When there is big spike.

People are holding trillions of isk in minerals already moved to higsec.
Like i told you production will adapt.

Stop discrimination, help in a fight against terrorists

Show your support to The Cause!
Extractor Bill
Hynix Galactic Industry
#28 - 2015-03-11 21:24:19 UTC
Well I can estimate a few reasons why it is rising. However its difficult to say for sure considering there may be some level of market speculation at play. However, here is my analysis.

From what I can see moon materials are currently increasing in price as the supply has outstripped demand in the recent past. There are a few reasons for this as I will detail...

The following factors are putting pressure on supply of moon materials...

  1. The disruption caused by the release of Rhea is being keenly felt in the market now as the shifting of alliances and space caused many existing moon mining operations to cease as space changed hands. While this is a relatively short term blip in supply with new operations replacing those that ended, it could be extended by future changes to sov.
  2. Phobe's effects will have a minor pressure on prices as it limited the safe movement of goods from null to empire increasing the capital requirement for participation in profitable moon mining (need JF, carrier will no longer work). This would affect any small operation, which can have a noticeable combined effect on supply since without a JF, transportation costs must be factored into the equation, and capital will be tied up longer.


The following are putting upward pressure on demand of moon materials

  1. Crius changes are being more keenly felt now as more producers of T2 products have entered the market. This has caused margins on T2 materials to tighten and has increased the demand for the advanced moon materials required to build the items
  2. Supply may still be in the process of catching up from the seasonal dip in market activity in Jan/mid-feb where prices dropped due to a surplus of the materials on the market combined with a decrease in demand. Most T2 ships dropped in price significantly in that period, and have begun to rise again.


Please note, the above is from my observations of the market as my primary operation is in the production of T2 ships.

I would also note that I expect the prices of Advanced moon materials to rise in the near future. This is because the production of advanced moon materials is currently of negligible profitability, with most refining operations at a loss. Only one is of significant profitability at about 800 mil profit per month and requires the maintenance of four POS and a significant amount of capital. The next best I can find is under 100 mil profit in a month, which is not worth the work required to maintain them, and the capital required to sustain the operation.

However due to the complexity of advanced moon material production, you will find that its effects will be felt around now and in the future as more corps review the profitability of their operations, and make a business decision to cease operations in advanced moon refining until the prices correct itself.
Hilti Enaka
Space Wolves ind.
Solyaris Chtonium
#29 - 2015-03-11 21:42:59 UTC
Extractor Bill wrote:
Well I can estimate a few reasons why it is rising. However its difficult to say for sure considering there may be some level of market speculation at play. However, here is my analysis.

From what I can see moon materials are currently increasing in price as the supply has outstripped demand in the recent past. There are a few reasons for this as I will detail...

The following factors are putting pressure on supply of moon materials...

  1. The disruption caused by the release of Rhea is being keenly felt in the market now as the shifting of alliances and space caused many existing moon mining operations to cease as space changed hands. While this is a relatively short term blip in supply with new operations replacing those that ended, it could be extended by future changes to sov.
  2. Phobe's effects will have a minor pressure on prices as it limited the safe movement of goods from null to empire increasing the capital requirement for participation in profitable moon mining (need JF, carrier will no longer work). This would affect any small operation, which can have a noticeable combined effect on supply since without a JF, transportation costs must be factored into the equation, and capital will be tied up longer.


The following are putting upward pressure on demand of moon materials

  1. Crius changes are being more keenly felt now as more producers of T2 products have entered the market. This has caused margins on T2 materials to tighten and has increased the demand for the advanced moon materials required to build the items
  2. Supply may still be in the process of catching up from the seasonal dip in market activity in Jan/mid-feb where prices dropped due to a surplus of the materials on the market combined with a decrease in demand. Most T2 ships dropped in price significantly in that period, and have begun to rise again.


Please note, the above is from my observations of the market as my primary operation is in the production of T2 ships.

I would also note that I expect the prices of Advanced moon materials to rise in the near future. This is because the production of advanced moon materials is currently of negligible profitability, with most refining operations at a loss. Only one is of significant profitability at about 800 mil profit per month and requires the maintenance of four POS and a significant amount of capital. The next best I can find is under 100 mil profit in a month, which is not worth the work required to maintain them, and the capital required to sustain the operation.

However due to the complexity of advanced moon material production, you will find that its effects will be felt around now and in the future as more corps review the profitability of their operations, and make a business decision to cease operations in advanced moon refining until the prices correct itself.


I'm not sure i would agree with point 2. supply hasn't really changed and neither has demand but the price of advanced moon material is very tight with some making a loss. That is my observation.
Extractor Bill
Hynix Galactic Industry
#30 - 2015-03-11 23:27:40 UTC  |  Edited by: Extractor Bill
Hilti Enaka wrote:
Extractor Bill wrote:
Well I can estimate a few reasons why it is rising. However its difficult to say for sure considering there may be some level of market speculation at play. However, here is my analysis.

From what I can see moon materials are currently increasing in price as the supply has outstripped demand in the recent past. There are a few reasons for this as I will detail...

The following factors are putting pressure on supply of moon materials...

  1. The disruption caused by the release of Rhea is being keenly felt in the market now as the shifting of alliances and space caused many existing moon mining operations to cease as space changed hands. While this is a relatively short term blip in supply with new operations replacing those that ended, it could be extended by future changes to sov.
  2. Phobe's effects will have a minor pressure on prices as it limited the safe movement of goods from null to empire increasing the capital requirement for participation in profitable moon mining (need JF, carrier will no longer work). This would affect any small operation, which can have a noticeable combined effect on supply since without a JF, transportation costs must be factored into the equation, and capital will be tied up longer.


The following are putting upward pressure on demand of moon materials

  1. Crius changes are being more keenly felt now as more producers of T2 products have entered the market. This has caused margins on T2 materials to tighten and has increased the demand for the advanced moon materials required to build the items
  2. Supply may still be in the process of catching up from the seasonal dip in market activity in Jan/mid-feb where prices dropped due to a surplus of the materials on the market combined with a decrease in demand. Most T2 ships dropped in price significantly in that period, and have begun to rise again.


Please note, the above is from my observations of the market as my primary operation is in the production of T2 ships.

I would also note that I expect the prices of Advanced moon materials to rise in the near future. This is because the production of advanced moon materials is currently of negligible profitability, with most refining operations at a loss. Only one is of significant profitability at about 800 mil profit per month and requires the maintenance of four POS and a significant amount of capital. The next best I can find is under 100 mil profit in a month, which is not worth the work required to maintain them, and the capital required to sustain the operation.

However due to the complexity of advanced moon material production, you will find that its effects will be felt around now and in the future as more corps review the profitability of their operations, and make a business decision to cease operations in advanced moon refining until the prices correct itself.


I'm not sure i would agree with point 2. supply hasn't really changed and neither has demand but the price of advanced moon material is very tight with some making a loss. That is my observation.


My market data said otherwise in January. I like to compare supply by looking at the movement in units sold over a 30 day period and comparing it to what is on the market at that point in time. So basically if supply stopped, how long would the market remain satisfied at its current sales trajectory.

Now with advanced moon materials I find most are making a loss. The only arguments I have seen against come from those who consider materials they mined directly "free" and do not consider the market value of selling those raw materials. In proper market analysis each step of the process needs to add value to the product. Right now most ADV moon materials break even or loose value through the refining process, and those that are profitable do not produce enough profit to justify the investment. (ex. The 3rd best one I analyzed today showed a 27m profit over 30 days and required a 2.5Bn investment per week. If your in sov that would still be under 100m profit especially if you have to pay for transport to market. The 2.5Bn investment per week is best utilized in another operation that would produce a greater ROI)

There is one that is still profitable, likely due to it having a much higher capital requirement (barrier for entry). That operation would require 4.5Bn per week to sustain, and about 6-8Bn start-up capital (depending on if your risk threshold). The net yield would be about 800m to 1Bn depending on your tower fuel costs.
Hilti Enaka
Space Wolves ind.
Solyaris Chtonium
#31 - 2015-03-12 00:29:36 UTC  |  Edited by: Hilti Enaka
Extractor Bill wrote:
Hilti Enaka wrote:
Extractor Bill wrote:
Well I can estimate a few reasons why it is rising. However its difficult to say for sure considering there may be some level of market speculation at play. However, here is my analysis.

From what I can see moon materials are currently increasing in price as the supply has outstripped demand in the recent past. There are a few reasons for this as I will detail...

The following factors are putting pressure on supply of moon materials...

  1. The disruption caused by the release of Rhea is being keenly felt in the market now as the shifting of alliances and space caused many existing moon mining operations to cease as space changed hands. While this is a relatively short term blip in supply with new operations replacing those that ended, it could be extended by future changes to sov.
  2. Phobe's effects will have a minor pressure on prices as it limited the safe movement of goods from null to empire increasing the capital requirement for participation in profitable moon mining (need JF, carrier will no longer work). This would affect any small operation, which can have a noticeable combined effect on supply since without a JF, transportation costs must be factored into the equation, and capital will be tied up longer.


The following are putting upward pressure on demand of moon materials

  1. Crius changes are being more keenly felt now as more producers of T2 products have entered the market. This has caused margins on T2 materials to tighten and has increased the demand for the advanced moon materials required to build the items
  2. Supply may still be in the process of catching up from the seasonal dip in market activity in Jan/mid-feb where prices dropped due to a surplus of the materials on the market combined with a decrease in demand. Most T2 ships dropped in price significantly in that period, and have begun to rise again.


Please note, the above is from my observations of the market as my primary operation is in the production of T2 ships.

I would also note that I expect the prices of Advanced moon materials to rise in the near future. This is because the production of advanced moon materials is currently of negligible profitability, with most refining operations at a loss. Only one is of significant profitability at about 800 mil profit per month and requires the maintenance of four POS and a significant amount of capital. The next best I can find is under 100 mil profit in a month, which is not worth the work required to maintain them, and the capital required to sustain the operation.

However due to the complexity of advanced moon material production, you will find that its effects will be felt around now and in the future as more corps review the profitability of their operations, and make a business decision to cease operations in advanced moon refining until the prices correct itself.


I'm not sure i would agree with point 2. supply hasn't really changed and neither has demand but the price of advanced moon material is very tight with some making a loss. That is my observation.


My market data said otherwise in January. I like to compare supply by looking at the movement in units sold over a 30 day period and comparing it to what is on the market at that point in time. So basically if supply stopped, how long would the market remain satisfied at its current sales trajectory.

Now with advanced moon materials I find most are making a loss. The only arguments I have seen against come from those who consider materials they mined directly "free" and do not consider the market value of selling those raw materials. In proper market analysis each step of the process needs to add value to the product. Right now most ADV moon materials break even or loose value through the refining process, and those that are profitable do not produce enough profit to justify the investment. (ex. The 3rd best one I analyzed today showed a 27m profit over 30 days and required a 2.5Bn investment per week. If your in sov that would still be under 100m profit especially if you have to pay for transport to market. The 2.5Bn investment per week is best utilized in another operation that would produce a greater ROI)

There is one that is still profitable, likely due to it having a much higher capital requirement (barrier for entry). That operation would require 4.5Bn per week to sustain, and about 6-8Bn start-up capital (depending on if your risk threshold). The net yield would be about 800m to 1Bn depending on your tower fuel costs.


LOL i know the feeling. 4.5b investment a week has gone to 100m profit a week, it's hardly worth the effort that and can make more isk running an incursion. wooh LOL
EvilweaselFinance
GoonCorp
Goonswarm Federation
#32 - 2015-03-12 14:47:30 UTC
you mean to say people trying to muscle in on our reactions market are losing their shirt, heavens to betsy how could such a thing happen
EvilweaselFinance
GoonCorp
Goonswarm Federation
#33 - 2015-03-12 14:53:30 UTC
Extractor Bill wrote:

There is one that is still profitable, likely due to it having a much higher capital requirement (barrier for entry). That operation would require 4.5Bn per week to sustain, and about 6-8Bn start-up capital (depending on if your risk threshold). The net yield would be about 800m to 1Bn depending on your tower fuel costs.

whoops, guess we must have forgotten to crush the fermionics market this month

i'll let our reactor farms know to increase production
Querns
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#34 - 2015-03-12 14:56:25 UTC
My little reaction farm profits 50% every month, I am not sure what this thread is complaining about.

This post was crafted by the wormhole expert of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.
Aryth
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#35 - 2015-03-12 22:08:46 UTC
I could explain it all but lets be real. There might be like 3 people that read this forum that would even understand that beyond us.

Leader of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal.

Creator of Burn Jita

Vile Rat: You're the greatest sociopath that has ever played eve.
Ebisu Ebby
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#36 - 2015-03-14 02:51:39 UTC
Aryth wrote:
I could explain it all but lets be real. There might be like 3 people that read this forum that would even understand that beyond us.


You mind explaining? Would make an interesting read, even without really understanding Big smile
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#37 - 2015-03-14 08:01:00 UTC
Ebisu Ebby wrote:
Aryth wrote:
I could explain it all but lets be real. There might be like 3 people that read this forum that would even understand that beyond us.


You mind explaining? Would make an interesting read, even without really understanding Big smile



You don't understand how Aryth works.

His post was designed to support two objectives - an ego boost, and deterring competitors from entering markets he wants to dominate.

Forums are every bit as much PVP as starship combat, or the market.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com
Ebisu Ebby
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#38 - 2015-03-14 09:58:45 UTC
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
Ebisu Ebby wrote:
Aryth wrote:
I could explain it all but lets be real. There might be like 3 people that read this forum that would even understand that beyond us.


You mind explaining? Would make an interesting read, even without really understanding Big smile



You don't understand how Aryth works.

His post was designed to support two objectives - an ego boost, and deterring competitors from entering markets he wants to dominate.

Forums are every bit as much PVP as starship combat, or the market.


Well, where knowledge is power that's to be expected. Can't hurt to ask, especially when there are people willing to share their knowledge like Vahrokh around! Big smile
Gary Bell
Therapy.
The Initiative.
#39 - 2015-03-14 12:08:35 UTC
Hilti Enaka wrote:
Mr Omniblivion wrote:
Hilti Enaka wrote:
Personally, I think moon goo mining is fine the way it is. However to maintain a level of control, when the price of minerals reaches a particular rate a temporary spawning of moon goo occurs allowing a somewhat mechanic to keep things balanced.


I think the term you are looking for is "alchemy"


Actually it's not since the damn things aren't profitable with the convention i know of.


Not Profitable lmao.. Sure whatever you say..

* Leans Back on pile of isk his 40 towers are making..
Aryth
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#40 - 2015-03-14 15:51:16 UTC
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
Ebisu Ebby wrote:
Aryth wrote:
I could explain it all but lets be real. There might be like 3 people that read this forum that would even understand that beyond us.


You mind explaining? Would make an interesting read, even without really understanding Big smile



You don't understand how Aryth works.

His post was designed to support two objectives - an ego boost, and deterring competitors from entering markets he wants to dominate.

Forums are every bit as much PVP as starship combat, or the market.


You clearly haven't seen my previous posts. I am the one guy that doesn't actually care outside of the internal membership.

Leader of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal.

Creator of Burn Jita

Vile Rat: You're the greatest sociopath that has ever played eve.
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