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Thoughts on the state of the economy and the preservation of wealth

Author
HeXxploiT
Doomheim
#1 - 2015-01-21 19:26:52 UTC  |  Edited by: HeXxploiT
I've been thinking about the current state of the economy if there is a such a thing as apposed to just "the market".
Having a fairly broad but not complete understanding of most commodities across the galaxy helps to give me a feel for the general health of the average pilots wallet. My gut tells me that it is getting more difficult for the middle class to excel in areas of finance and easier for the poor(neophytes) to make a living. My partner and I have split our investments into many divisions. Ore, bpo's, ships, ammo, faction modules etc etc etc....and many of these have taken a hit over the past couple of years.
My guess is the the high-end cap builders, if they haven't already, will be taking a hit in the long run since Phoebe but this is mere speculation as I haven't spent as much time involved in nulsec pvp over the past 1.5 years.
There is much uncertainty these days do to the many and broad sweeping changes that have occurred in the galaxy in the past year and many market divisions take a great deal of time to find new support levels. As a hedge I would personally recommend having excess isk invested in ships of various types from frigates to capitals. After all even isk in itself can be a risky investment as evidenced by drastic plex price movement.
It's a commonly accepted belief that all things finance revolve around isk but I would make the argument that all things revolve around ships.
Any thoughts or have a different perspective?
If you care to expound or disagree with My perceptions I would be interested in hearing it. 07
Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
In Tea We Trust
#2 - 2015-01-21 20:16:44 UTC
It's all about the veldspar baby.
Alexi Stokov
State War Academy
Caldari State
#3 - 2015-01-21 20:33:36 UTC
I don't get your comment on the poor can make money easier than the middle class. What value are you setting to determine what is poor or middle or rich? This just reads like you are trying to force in a RL argument I also do not get how PLEX prices lead to the conclusion that holding ISK is a bad idea. Why is PLEX the gauge used over any other item in game? Isn't there something to be said for liquidity and flexibility?
Cheese Crackers
Malfurion Mining
#4 - 2015-01-21 21:28:39 UTC
the fact that someone who could be considered 'space poor' can go to immensely rich just buy paying for a ton of plex and selling it makes me think that there really isnt much way of gauging classes in eve as it cannot be compared to real life
Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
Nornir Empire
#5 - 2015-01-21 21:39:09 UTC
Cheese Crackers wrote:
the fact that someone who could be considered 'space poor' can go to immensely rich just buy paying for a ton of plex and selling it makes me think that there really isnt much way of gauging classes in eve as it cannot be compared to real life


What is immensely rich in EVE? Even just 100b is going to cost you $2.5k and I doubt many people spend that much all at once.
HeXxploiT
Doomheim
#6 - 2015-01-21 22:24:03 UTC  |  Edited by: HeXxploiT
Alexi Stokov wrote:
I don't get your comment on the poor can make money easier than the middle class. What value are you setting to determine what is poor or middle or rich? This just reads like you are trying to force in a RL argument I also do not get how PLEX prices lead to the conclusion that holding ISK is a bad idea. Why is PLEX the gauge used over any other item in game? Isn't there something to be said for liquidity and flexibility?


You're correct these things can be difficult to categorize which is why I was a little weary of calling it an "economy" to begin with.
Obviously categorizing someone as "poor"(with which I equated "neophytes" or new players) are not going to be a perfect correlation to the class of poor in the real world but for all intents & purposes it's close enough. Lack of knowledge, money & power generally = poor. Middle class would be older players that have built relationships, resources, skills and sometimes isk and have the ability to fan out over the galaxy and more successfully exploit resources having at least some access to all that eve has to offer.
The upper class would generally be defined as those who are in commanding positions, either literally or figuratively, and have mastered the art of exploiting various aspects of eve to maximum advantage.

I never said holding plex was a bad idea at all. In fact I offered no opinion on plex other than to acknowledge that it's a volatile investment. I think people who invest in plex tend to be hyper sensitive to any mention of the word.

Volatile Definition: Liable to change rapidly(Oxford Dictionary)

This is neither good nor bad but merely an observation and I definitely don't want to start any arguments about plex.
Plex is not the guage for anything but merely one part of the picture.

As far as liquidity goes there are only two ways in which it is important.
1: Having the available cash to run your business. Everyone understands the need to make sudden purchases be it for trading, building or whatever.
2:Liquidity is a form of investment that, in the case of inflation is bad, and in the case of deflation is good.

Not trying to force any arguments just looking for other perspectives and sharing my own.
Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat
Working Stiffs
#7 - 2015-01-21 22:33:51 UTC
I haven't noticed any change in my ability to earn ISK, or the effort required.

Though I have noticed an increase in the number of people wanting PLEX to magically appear in their hangars.
Alexi Stokov
State War Academy
Caldari State
#8 - 2015-01-21 22:48:48 UTC
Ok so you used PLEX as an example when you could of put in any item. The way you wrote the sentence I thought you were trying to make a specific linkage. The only thing I have found with increased levels of ISK is how to deploy it into new items. When I started out with a few million, expanded IIs were a great item due to high volume/return. Now they do not tie up enough ISK to make them worthwhile. Of course it helped that when I started they went for 1.2 million and recently were as low as 250k
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#9 - 2015-01-22 04:09:42 UTC
Cheese Crackers wrote:
the fact that someone who could be considered 'space poor' can go to immensely rich just buy paying for a ton of plex and selling it makes me think that there really isnt much way of gauging classes in eve as it cannot be compared to real life



You aren't getting spacerich by selling PLEXes you bought for RL money. You might get to be at the lower edge of space middle class if you buy a 28 pack, but spacerich? A trillion ISK is spacerich, and that's over a thousand PLEX.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Skydell
Bad Girl Posse
#10 - 2015-01-22 06:32:26 UTC
There really is no way to preserve wealth any more other than to just horde ISK. While many of the changes might provide additional grind factor in terms of building on volumes, there are volumes of every item in the game to crash any market to 10% of its current value.

The game needs new decay. I pay by sub, I accumulate many things and no matter what Jita says my 'stuff' is worth, it's in my assets window and is building every day I log in. That's true for a lot of people in EVE. They have no war they feel driven to fight, they have no desire to play 'blow stuff up' just for the sake of blow stuff up. This would be solved in other MMO's because people would vendor it. That's not an option here, so they need to come up with a way for us to use stuff up. One people will actually go with. Ever since the reproc nerf, I haven't reprocessed anything. It just builds and builds.

That comes back to the preservation aspect. I always see myself as a small fish in EVE so if I can tank a market, there are people out there who can do it 1000 times better than me. Until that stuff is given purpose and removes it, everything is a log in away from being trash.
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#11 - 2015-01-23 00:14:05 UTC
Skydell wrote:
There really is no way to preserve wealth any more other than to just horde ISK. While many of the changes might provide additional grind factor in terms of building on volumes, there are volumes of every item in the game to crash any market to 10% of its current value.

The game needs new decay. I pay by sub, I accumulate many things and no matter what Jita says my 'stuff' is worth, it's in my assets window and is building every day I log in. That's true for a lot of people in EVE. They have no war they feel driven to fight, they have no desire to play 'blow stuff up' just for the sake of blow stuff up. This would be solved in other MMO's because people would vendor it. That's not an option here, so they need to come up with a way for us to use stuff up. One people will actually go with. Ever since the reproc nerf, I haven't reprocessed anything. It just builds and builds.

That comes back to the preservation aspect. I always see myself as a small fish in EVE so if I can tank a market, there are people out there who can do it 1000 times better than me. Until that stuff is given purpose and removes it, everything is a log in away from being trash.



There is massive overproduction in EVE - I would not be surprised if I could personally build enough Kronoses (to take a niche market) to replace every one of them lost gamewide.

That said there is also 'overproduction' of liquid ISK.

If I had ten trillion ISK and intended to take a long, long break from the game, I'd probably invest most of it in PLEX and some in limited issue ships that I believe will remain ultra-rare.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#12 - 2015-01-23 02:56:20 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Premise: it's 3am here and I come from a massively tiresome day so please forgive me if I am going to write monstruosities.



Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
Skydell wrote:
There really is no way to preserve wealth any more other than to just horde ISK. While many of the changes might provide additional grind factor in terms of building on volumes, there are volumes of every item in the game to crash any market to 10% of its current value.

The game needs new decay. I pay by sub, I accumulate many things and no matter what Jita says my 'stuff' is worth, it's in my assets window and is building every day I log in. That's true for a lot of people in EVE. They have no war they feel driven to fight, they have no desire to play 'blow stuff up' just for the sake of blow stuff up. This would be solved in other MMO's because people would vendor it. That's not an option here, so they need to come up with a way for us to use stuff up. One people will actually go with. Ever since the reproc nerf, I haven't reprocessed anything. It just builds and builds.
...



There is massive overproduction in EVE - I would not be surprised if I could personally build enough Kronoses (to take a niche market) to replace every one of them lost gamewide.

That said there is also 'overproduction' of liquid ISK.


You also put insight into Skydell's "Ever since the reproc nerf..." observation.

CCP nerfed reprocessing and dealt with "That said there is also 'overproduction' of liquid ISK." for several reasons.

In fact, before the nerf, you'd reprocess stuff and:

- overload the minerals markets

- get paid for doing so by the guys purchasing your minerals.

This perverse mechanism was a crack in the only "monetary control" that prevents EvE from burning into an endless flaming well of hyper-production of goods and inflation, the real one.
In fact CCP, since ever, are fighting hard to preserve the so called "wallets segregation", that is a natural but also artificial difficulty at passing wealth between players. Edit: this is a nice article talking about the whole matter.
The "EvE mistrust factor" is a great "wall". Removing opportunities to exchange lots of money is another big one. When you did a week of L4 missions and would melt pre-nerf massive amounts of drops (= minerals faucet= magically coming out of nowhere), you'd basically get freighter sized amounts of minerals which would flood the markets and would then get the equivalent ISK, "heating" the money exchange, chipping at the money wall. The heating was further increased by the ISK faucets provided by pre-nerf missioning.

CCP had to introduce artificial inefficiencies in order to keep this process under control. Past a certain point simple drop and ISK nerfs were not enough. So they had to directly alter the ability to efficiently reprocess stuff.

Same for ices: despawning belts would both make life harder for bots and put a ceiling to how much stuff would flood the markets.
Jan VanRijkdom
House VanRijkdom Trading Conglomerate
#13 - 2015-01-23 07:53:09 UTC
I would say ships are no safer than liquid isk. I've played on and off for years and ship prices fluctuate fairly regularly imo, sometimes drastically. They may appreciate or depreciate but other than collectibles I don't see them as safer than any other items, if that's what you were implying.

.

HeXxploiT
Doomheim
#14 - 2015-01-23 08:12:02 UTC
Jan VanRijkdom wrote:
I would say ships are no safer than liquid isk. I've played on and off for years and ship prices fluctuate fairly regularly imo, sometimes drastically. They may appreciate or depreciate but other than collectibles I don't see them as safer than any other items, if that's what you were implying.


This is why I stated having various ships. The reason being that when a ship gets nerfed and pilots turn away from it they're naturally going to turn to another ship. One has increased demand and the other decreased and therein lies the hedge.
The foundation of the hedge is rooted in the belief that, unlike many sections of the market in eve, CCP will always want to maintain ship value whereas they don't necessarily give a damn about moon goo, ore, salvage or ammo maintaining a pricepoint.
Jan VanRijkdom
House VanRijkdom Trading Conglomerate
#15 - 2015-01-23 08:34:12 UTC
True, but the min changes certainly upped prices, (good if you held lots if ships), but that wasnt directly because of changes to the ships. I would think there could always be something that could fundamentally change something to increase or decrease prices of all ships vs isk, besides tiericide or new ships.

I get your Meaning though. I'm just playing devils advocate.

I guess my answer would be that it don't believe there is one set of items that are almost foolproof, but there are educated guesses. My thought is large amounts of liquid and simply a large variety of items generally to hedge losses. Mins/ships/rares/plex/isk/bpos.

Having a lot just means more to potentially lose. Actively being reactive and proactive is I'd guess the safest way to ride out any possible losses, that is if to can guess/project correctly on when to get in or out of something to maintain or grow.

This is all obvious and banal I'm sure . I'm rambling now.

.

Skydell
Bad Girl Posse
#16 - 2015-01-23 20:11:25 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Premise: it's 3am here and I come from a massively tiresome day so please forgive me if I am going to write monstruosities.



Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
Skydell wrote:
There really is no way to preserve wealth any more other than to just horde ISK. While many of the changes might provide additional grind factor in terms of building on volumes, there are volumes of every item in the game to crash any market to 10% of its current value.

The game needs new decay. I pay by sub, I accumulate many things and no matter what Jita says my 'stuff' is worth, it's in my assets window and is building every day I log in. That's true for a lot of people in EVE. They have no war they feel driven to fight, they have no desire to play 'blow stuff up' just for the sake of blow stuff up. This would be solved in other MMO's because people would vendor it. That's not an option here, so they need to come up with a way for us to use stuff up. One people will actually go with. Ever since the reproc nerf, I haven't reprocessed anything. It just builds and builds.
...



There is massive overproduction in EVE - I would not be surprised if I could personally build enough Kronoses (to take a niche market) to replace every one of them lost gamewide.

That said there is also 'overproduction' of liquid ISK.


You also put insight into Skydell's "Ever since the reproc nerf..." observation.

CCP nerfed reprocessing and dealt with "That said there is also 'overproduction' of liquid ISK." for several reasons.

In fact, before the nerf, you'd reprocess stuff and:

- overload the minerals markets

- get paid for doing so by the guys purchasing your minerals.

This perverse mechanism was a crack in the only "monetary control" that prevents EvE from burning into an endless flaming well of hyper-production of goods and inflation, the real one.
In fact CCP, since ever, are fighting hard to preserve the so called "wallets segregation", that is a natural but also artificial difficulty at passing wealth between players. Edit: this is a nice article talking about the whole matter.
The "EvE mistrust factor" is a great "wall". Removing opportunities to exchange lots of money is another big one. When you did a week of L4 missions and would melt pre-nerf massive amounts of drops (= minerals faucet= magically coming out of nowhere), you'd basically get freighter sized amounts of minerals which would flood the markets and would then get the equivalent ISK, "heating" the money exchange, chipping at the money wall. The heating was further increased by the ISK faucets provided by pre-nerf missioning.

CCP had to introduce artificial inefficiencies in order to keep this process under control. Past a certain point simple drop and ISK nerfs were not enough. So they had to directly alter the ability to efficiently reprocess stuff.

Same for ices: despawning belts would both make life harder for bots and put a ceiling to how much stuff would flood the markets.


So much of EVE is built on artificial inefficiencies. It has come back to bite us in the ass.

We manufacture from a bottleneck. All manufacturing has it, looting has it but when that bottleneck becomes fleshed out it's no longer a bottleneck. If you need 6 ingredients and one is a bottleneck but you are getting masses of ingredients, you are creating gluts. One of the easiest examples available to show this is T2 salvage. If you want an Intact Armor plate or a Cap console you will be design gather huge amounts of current pumps getting the plates or consoles. Power circuit farming yields disproportionate numbers of ANN's. That's why they sell for 600 ISK right now. We get what we don't need to get what we do and the bottleneck has become mass glut.

In a player driven inventory system like EVE, everything needs an out point. Convincing us to throw stuff away is never going to happen. Something needs to be added to create those out points. Corporate disposal system where the items vanish maybe? In exchange for an index on corporate index. Large fluff projects for individuals, there are plenty of ideas but it's all vaporware until CCP introduce a way to balance off glut.
Cista2
EVE Museum
#17 - 2015-01-23 22:37:25 UTC
Skydell wrote:
Convincing us to throw stuff away is never going to happen. Something needs to be added to create those out points.

Station hangar rental fees.

My channel: "Signatures" -

Adunh Slavy
#18 - 2015-01-24 05:21:16 UTC  |  Edited by: Adunh Slavy
Eve lacks the ability to express unlimited demand in any other way except hangar bloat. This is not uncommon in games, the result is called mudflation.

As more of what is common accumulates, its realtive value has no where to go but down, even in environments of monetary inflation. Everyone has more of the common nick nacks; prices being some what sticky, why pay more for stuff I already have or can get easily, even if I do have more money than I need?

The new, the rare, and the tangible (PLEX) are the only things that can and will absorb the massive amount of idle ISK. When the new becomes common, when the rare are rereleased, their relaive value goes down to join the rest of the scrap heap, however useful that scrap may be for any particular situation.

Eve will continue to mudflate along as it always has, the names of items will change, CCP may toss in a wrench from time to time by restructuring production inputs, but that's about it.

I've been saying it for five years and will continue to say it: Eve needs more distinct divisions of labor, more specialization, more consumables, more expressions of vanity. (expressions of vanity that do not come from the nex!)

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

Adunh Slavy
#19 - 2015-01-24 05:23:55 UTC
Cista2 wrote:
Skydell wrote:
Convincing us to throw stuff away is never going to happen. Something needs to be added to create those out points.

Station hangar rental fees.


If that is the plan, invest in secure cargo containers, because they will litter the empty spaces between planets.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

Skydell
Bad Girl Posse
#20 - 2015-01-24 07:22:56 UTC
Adunh Slavy wrote:
Eve lacks the ability to express unlimited demand in any other way except hangar bloat. This is not uncommon in games, the result is called mudflation.

As more of what is common accumulates, its realtive value has no where to go but down, even in environments of monetary inflation. Everyone has more of the common nick nacks; prices being some what sticky, why pay more for stuff I already have or can get easily, even if I do have more money than I need?

The new, the rare, and the tangible (PLEX) are the only things that can and will absorb the massive amount of idle ISK. When the new becomes common, when the rare are rereleased, their relaive value goes down to join the rest of the scrap heap, however useful that scrap may be for any particular situation.

Eve will continue to mudflate along as it always has, the names of items will change, CCP may toss in a wrench from time to time by restructuring production inputs, but that's about it.

I've been saying it for five years and will continue to say it: Eve needs more distinct divisions of labor, more specialization, more consumables, more expressions of vanity. (expressions of vanity that do not come from the nex!)


What's unfortunate is the level of creative potential in New Eden that is wasted because it doesn't directly promote the PvP agenda.