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Update regarding Multiboxing and input automation

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Author
James Baboli
Warp to Pharmacy
#2461 - 2014-12-11 13:59:45 UTC
Lucas Kell wrote:
What plex shortages?
Seriously, look at the market statistics. compare when ISBoxer became more commonplace. PLEX will continue to go up even without ISBoxer accounts. If PLEX going down, if that's really, honestly what you were hoping is going to happen, then you will not be best pleased. There might be a short drop in January from speculation, but by this time next year, we'll be well over the billion mark. Amusingly though, even if PLEX were significantly affected by the change, consider what happens to many these multiboxed miners. They get sold on to new owners to be used in smaller groups, at the cost of 2 PLEX for the transfer and still a PLEX per month.

People always talk about "the economy" in relation to multiboxing, but nobody has been able to offer anything beyond anecdotal evidence that any such correlation exists. Supposedly mineral prices should be in the dirt by now, but even before this thread we were cruising to an all time high.
.

Multi-boxers definately have a major impact on some of the smaller sub-markets, like non-third party LP trading. Some boxers who choose to publicly unload can depress prices by 25% or more for, in one case, about 2 months, by himself.

Talking more,

Flying crazier,

And drinking more

Making battleships worth the warp

Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#2462 - 2014-12-11 14:07:40 UTC
Eli Apol wrote:
The only people with access to full details about the effects of multiboxers on the economy are CCP... and guess who's implementing this change?
Are they? Considering they do state of the economy talks every year and full details of the daily market trading totals and averages are widely available (eve-central, eve-marketdata, even straight from CCP via CREST) it seems to me that they aren't the only ones with full details at all.

Eli Apol wrote:
So lets think about reasons WHY they might be implementing this:

- because lots of non-multiboxers are whining?
- because it was being used as an excuse by various botters?
- because it adversely affects their game design (through breaking pvp combat with bombers and screwing up their player driven economy)?

Feel free to come up with your own and try to figure out which are the most likely reasons for them to restrict a playstyle like this.
- because it was raised by a developer, discussed and the result was to remove broadcasting.

It doesn't have to be for some elaborate reason beyond someone thinking it was a good idea, putting it forward and getting it agreed. In the world of software development, that's generally how it works. But if you were to look at the reason players put forward for not liking it (which is what we are talking about here), most of them is because "waah alts online". Whether or not those people are the reason they decided to change it is anyone's guess.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.

James Baboli
Warp to Pharmacy
#2463 - 2014-12-11 14:09:14 UTC
Eli Apol wrote:
The only people with access to full details about the effects of multiboxers on the economy are CCP... and guess who's implementing this change?

So lets think about reasons WHY they might be implementing this:

- because lots of non-multiboxers are whining?
- because it was being used as an excuse by various botters?
- because it adversely affects their game design (through breaking pvp combat with bombers and screwing up their player driven economy)?

Feel free to come up with your own and try to figure out which are the most likely reasons for them to restrict a playstyle like this.


Lets demolish these, eve style.

1: whining and tears mean your opposition is doing it right, and you need to HTFU.
2: fairly easy to spot most bots via logs, as they tend to have even more regular input than broadcast characters, and the smarter bots are mostly going to be updated to look like they aren't even broadcasting.
3: Bombers aren't particularly balanced right now regardless of who is in them.
4: In many ways, boxers are propping up the economy and making it artificially cheap to PVP. Almost everyone agrees that a lower hull cost is good for the numbers fielded in PVP, and especially for newbies
5: While boxers make a large income overall, they are less effecitve at collecting isk than the same number of clients run either single or in groups of 2-3 (the "normal" for most players if one averages active accounts and players) in almost every case.

Talking more,

Flying crazier,

And drinking more

Making battleships worth the warp

Delt0r Garsk
Shits N Giggles
#2464 - 2014-12-11 14:10:18 UTC
Eli Apol wrote:

- because it adversely affects their game design (through breaking pvp combat with bombers and screwing up their player driven economy)?

I get really sick of this claim. Killmails are public. If isboxer bombers are doing this so much then either show some evidence or shut up.

AKA the scientist.

Death and Glory!

Well fun is also good.

Eli Apol
Definitely a nullsec alt
#2465 - 2014-12-11 14:11:09 UTC
Lucas Kell wrote:
Are they? Considering they do state of the economy talks every year and full details of the daily market trading totals and averages are widely available (eve-central, eve-marketdata, even straight from CCP via CREST) it seems to me that they aren't the only ones with full details at all


Show me a graph where they have incomes of multi character users vs non-multi character users. I believe this is only available to CCP and members of the CSM so far (Mike from the CSM mentioned the availability of this information a few months ago during a general discussion in a public incursion chat). This is not publicly available.

but what would I know, I'm just a salvager

Eli Apol
Definitely a nullsec alt
#2466 - 2014-12-11 14:15:05 UTC
Delt0r Garsk wrote:
Eli Apol wrote:

- because it adversely affects their game design (through breaking pvp combat with bombers and screwing up their player driven economy)?

I get really sick of this claim. Killmails are public. If isboxer bombers are doing this so much then either show some evidence or shut up.

Do you live in a hole? Have you not seen the effect of small groups of bombers on nullsec fleet battles over the past few months? Outside of T3 doctrines bombers have absolutely demolished various subcap support fleets - and I have it on good authority that these have largely been multiboxed bomber squadrons controlled by just one or two players.

but what would I know, I'm just a salvager

Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#2467 - 2014-12-11 14:15:55 UTC
James Baboli wrote:
Multi-boxers definately have a major impact on some of the smaller sub-markets, like non-third party LP trading. Some boxers who choose to publicly unload can depress prices by 25% or more for, in one case, about 2 months, by himself.
As do non-ISBoxer characters, even solo ones. Sometimes I use just a single alt to crash an entire product for no reason beyond the fun of it. Mutliboxers aren't the reason, you simply only notice when it's a multiboxer doing it publicly, because they are doing it publicly. A corporation, an alliance, a group of mates, or even a nolifing individual can all do exactly the same thing.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.

Delt0r Garsk
Shits N Giggles
#2468 - 2014-12-11 14:18:06 UTC
Eli Apol wrote:
Delt0r Garsk wrote:
Eli Apol wrote:

- because it adversely affects their game design (through breaking pvp combat with bombers and screwing up their player driven economy)?

I get really sick of this claim. Killmails are public. If isboxer bombers are doing this so much then either show some evidence or shut up.

Do you live in a hole? Have you not seen the effect of small groups of bombers on nullsec fleet battles over the past few months? Outside of T3 doctrines bombers have absolutely demolished various subcap support fleets - and I have it on good authority that these have largely been multiboxed bomber squadrons controlled by just one or two players.

I am in some of these fleets. We are not isboxing. Yea not much effect or you would be able to point to it.

AKA the scientist.

Death and Glory!

Well fun is also good.

James Baboli
Warp to Pharmacy
#2469 - 2014-12-11 14:18:08 UTC
Eli Apol wrote:
Lucas Kell wrote:
Are they? Considering they do state of the economy talks every year and full details of the daily market trading totals and averages are widely available (eve-central, eve-marketdata, even straight from CCP via CREST) it seems to me that they aren't the only ones with full details at all


Show me a graph where they have incomes of multi character users vs non-multi character users. I believe this is only available to CCP and members of the CSM so far (Mike from the CSM mentioned the availability of this information a few months ago during a general discussion in a public incursion chat). This is not publicly available.

This isn't hard to figure out though.

Ship scan a boxed miner. Now, assume maximum boosts and skills and you have an upper limit per character. Multiply this by the number of characters being run.

For incursion boxers, follow their fleet for an hour here and there. Average the site times, then do the appropriate payout math.

For anom boxers: ask about their ticks. multiply by number of characters, then skim their tax rate off.

Anything else you want to claim is boxed en masse?

Talking more,

Flying crazier,

And drinking more

Making battleships worth the warp

Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#2470 - 2014-12-11 14:21:55 UTC
Eli Apol wrote:
Show me a graph where they have incomes of multi character users vs non-multi character users. I believe this is only available to CCP and members of the CSM so far (Mike from the CSM mentioned the availability of this information a few months ago during a general discussion in a public incursion chat). This is not publicly available.
What would that graph prove about the economy? Absolutely nothing. The only information you need to know to work out economic impact is the state of the economy for the items you are considering and the popularity of ISBoxer amongst EVE users, both of which can be found online.

And pretty soon you'll see for yourself. Broadcasting is banned from January. Watch PLEX prices drop due to speculation, bounce most of the way back, then continue on the uphill jog towards 1b.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.

Eli Apol
Definitely a nullsec alt
#2471 - 2014-12-11 14:22:15 UTC
Yeah that gives you the average hourly rate, now tell me how much of an effect that's having over the whole game - do you have the number of multiboxing accounts to hand? What percentage of the playerbase that is? How much of an effect that percentage is having over the whole game?

Please let us all know and we can all see whether this is a non-trivial effect.

but what would I know, I'm just a salvager

Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#2472 - 2014-12-11 14:25:29 UTC
Eli Apol wrote:
Yeah that gives you the average hourly rate, now tell me how much of an effect that's having over the whole game - do you have the number of multiboxing accounts to hand? What percentage of the playerbase that is? How much of an effect that percentage is having over the whole game?

Please let us all know and we can all see whether this is a non-trivial effect.
I'm beginning to understand why it appears you have no idea what you are talking about when you talk about the effect on the economy.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.

Eli Apol
Definitely a nullsec alt
#2473 - 2014-12-11 14:27:02 UTC
Lucas Kell wrote:
I'm beginning to understand why it appears you have no idea what you are talking about when you talk about the effect on the economy.

I've been wondering for a while how you're a successful trader with such an inablity to discern the effects of supply and demand on markets.

Each to their own I guess.

but what would I know, I'm just a salvager

James Baboli
Warp to Pharmacy
#2474 - 2014-12-11 14:29:55 UTC
Lucas Kell wrote:
Eli Apol wrote:
Yeah that gives you the average hourly rate, now tell me how much of an effect that's having over the whole game - do you have the number of multiboxing accounts to hand? What percentage of the playerbase that is? How much of an effect that percentage is having over the whole game?

Please let us all know and we can all see whether this is a non-trivial effect.
I'm beginning to understand why it appears you have no idea what you are talking about when you talk about the effect on the economy.


So, what he was the player percentage of boxers and the overall number of boxes, and then wanted the inpact of these boxes on the whole economy of eve expressed as a single percentage?

Is that what he was asking for?

Talking more,

Flying crazier,

And drinking more

Making battleships worth the warp

Eli Apol
Definitely a nullsec alt
#2475 - 2014-12-11 14:31:06 UTC  |  Edited by: Eli Apol
James Baboli wrote:
So, what he was the player percentage of boxers and the overall number of boxes, and then wanted the inpact of these boxes on the whole economy of eve expressed as a single percentage?

Is that what he was asking for?

Percentage of the playerbase using input multiplexing
Percentage of minerals supplied on the market by this subset
Percentage of isk created by this subset
Percentage of LP created by this subset


etc etc....

edit:

Percentage of the monthly plex usage attributable to this subset....

but what would I know, I'm just a salvager

James Baboli
Warp to Pharmacy
#2476 - 2014-12-11 14:36:52 UTC
Eli Apol wrote:
Lucas Kell wrote:
I'm beginning to understand why it appears you have no idea what you are talking about when you talk about the effect on the economy.

I've been wondering for a while how you're a successful trader with such an inablity to discern the effects of supply and demand on markets.

Each to their own I guess.

Each boxer handing off their toons decreases the number of plex in the short term, by selling the character, which costs 2 plex per character. These characters still need to live on active, subscribed accounts, and so continue to use 1 plex per month. This is an overall uptick in demand.

As for the recent plex price drop, there are a number of boxers who had stocked up x months/years per character of plex against ever needing isk to plex something urgently. Many of the larger boxers reduced the number of characters they will keep this strategic reserve for and thus a large cache of plex hit the market in a reasonably short period of time, causing speculation to drop the markets for a while. The boxers and other parties with the sense to close their mouth and look down then it rains stopped putting their plex up when they figured out that the market was becoming depressed, and so you see a more bounded curve for now, as there are still reserves which have a price at which they will be dumped which weren't there before.

Talking more,

Flying crazier,

And drinking more

Making battleships worth the warp

James Baboli
Warp to Pharmacy
#2477 - 2014-12-11 14:43:08 UTC
Eli Apol wrote:
James Baboli wrote:
So, what he was the player percentage of boxers and the overall number of boxes, and then wanted the inpact of these boxes on the whole economy of eve expressed as a single percentage?

Is that what he was asking for?

Percentage of the playerbase using input multiplexing
Percentage of minerals supplied on the market by this subset
Percentage of isk created by this subset
Percentage of LP created by this subset


etc etc....

edit:

Percentage of the monthly plex usage attributable to this subset....

You can make some pretty tight estimates from public data. around B-2 categorization if you know intel analysis.

Players: maybe 2%, upper bound of 10% who have a input multiplexing method installed but not in common use
Minerals ~10%, Not more than 20% as an absolute upper bound.
ISK: 10%, 20% as an absolute upper bound
LP: 2-3% of total LP, higher if you take incursion LP alone due to the higher concentration of boxers.
Plex usage: 12-15%, upper bound of 20%

Talking more,

Flying crazier,

And drinking more

Making battleships worth the warp

Eli Apol
Definitely a nullsec alt
#2478 - 2014-12-11 14:44:37 UTC  |  Edited by: Eli Apol
Completely true. And every single boxer (both IS'd and manual) that does not pay subscriptions creates a demand for plex according to how many accounts they have.

Now if we (wrongly I know) assume that the supply is more or less constant, then eliminating multiplexed accounts reduces demand which leads to cheaper prices.


Of course this is a horrible simplification because both the supply and demand are also determined by the isk price of the plex as well in fairly complex ways - BUT - reducing a blanket amount of demand by restricting multiboxing like this WILL affect the plex market even if it is tending to increase anyways.

Supply and demand, like I said.


I'm completely ignoring your statistics - you have an error boundary of 500% on your actual multibox users but not a corresponding error boundary on any of the rest of your figures. It's an educated guess from you and I appreciate the effort, but a guess is all.

but what would I know, I'm just a salvager

Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#2479 - 2014-12-11 14:53:55 UTC
Eli Apol wrote:
I've been wondering for a while how you're a successful trader with such an inablity to discern the effects of supply and demand on markets.

Each to their own I guess.
Perhaps it's because I understand there's more complexity to the economy than simple supply and demand based off of anecdotal evidence. Your entire principle is "A multiboxer buys more PLEX for subs than a single player, thus they are the reason PLEX prices are high". Except you don't know how much PLEX is bought by multiboxers. Over half the PLEX put into the game is bought and stored by traders, specifically because traders know it will always go up in price. In that way it's better to hold PLEX than liquid ISK. You also don't know what other uses people have for PLEX. Fanfest for example can be paid in PLEX. A full set of tickets for someone to go to fanfest is 50 PLEX (4.1 years gametime) and if they are taking their partner who is going on SoE tour, 106 PLEX (8.8 years gametime). Then there's character purchases, PLEX to AUR, resculpting, dual character training, etc.

The fact is that the economy stats prove that with the increase in ISBoxer use, the market has not shifted in any noticeable manner. Mineral prices have practically done the opposite of what people claim ISBoxer has done to them. The "but the economy" whines are always from people with very little knowledge of the subject.

James Baboli wrote:
So, what he was the player percentage of boxers and the overall number of boxes, and then wanted the impact of these boxes on the whole economy of eve expressed as a single percentage?

Is that what he was asking for?
Honestly, it's not entirely clear. It seems to be that he wants to prove that multiboxers earn more than non-multiboxers and thus they must be negatively impacting the economy.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.

Eli Apol
Definitely a nullsec alt
#2480 - 2014-12-11 15:00:00 UTC  |  Edited by: Eli Apol
Lets put this simply...

Total Demand = Miscellaneous demand + Multiplexer demand

Is Total Demand going to increase or decrease if we remove multiplexers (assuming that multiplexer demand is a positive amount)


We can even reverse this incredibly simple equation when talking about supply of minerals, isk and LP:

Total Supply = Miscellaneous supply + Multiplexer supply

is Total Supply going to increase or decrease if we remove multiplexers (assuming that multiplexer supply is a positive amount)

Kthx bye.

but what would I know, I'm just a salvager