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Plex Prices

First post
Author
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#121 - 2014-11-26 09:06:17 UTC
Xanato Kaso wrote:
Vincent Athena wrote:
If the PLEX does start to drop, remember to time your buy. You don't want to be buying at 900 if it's going to drop to 850 or 800.




how do you tell what its going to drop to though? and if my character needs a plex so i can keep playing. im kinda at the whim of the market


It's fairly easy (but not so simple), just read my Experiment #01: RL finance analysis applied to EvE thread.
Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
In Tea We Trust
#122 - 2014-11-26 13:23:45 UTC
We're heading back towards the stars again.
Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
Nornir Empire
#123 - 2014-11-26 13:31:56 UTC
Eliram Kahoudi
Big Fluffy Bunnies
#124 - 2014-11-26 16:03:07 UTC
good cause i bought back in at 860.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#125 - 2014-11-26 17:59:25 UTC
Elizabeth Norn wrote:
Just as planned? Bear



Swings happen.

Actually, without swings, markets go in coma mode.
voetius
Grundrisse
#126 - 2014-11-26 22:19:16 UTC

My personal opinion is that the iskbotter announcement caused people to start dumping which burst the bubble. It's obvious in retrospect that the price was driven by speculation or it wouldn't be 890 now, though I have to admit that I never realised that so much of the recent plex price was speculation driven.

Interesting aside to VV, if the price of a good is driven up by speculation can this be detected by your analysis of fundamentals?
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#127 - 2014-11-26 22:49:52 UTC
voetius wrote:


Interesting aside to VV, if the price of a good is driven up by speculation can this be detected by your analysis of fundamentals?



Given how poor mainstream economic theorists were at understanding the US housing bubble when early signs were showing in 2003-4, I do not believe that mainstream economic theories will predict anything useful about PLEX speculation.

I am staying right out of this market now. In 60 days time I could see PLEX at 600 million or 1100 million and the determining factor will be the decisions made by individual multi-trillionaires, as well as the promotions CCP decides to run over Christmas.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Princess Honneamise
#128 - 2014-11-27 01:16:54 UTC
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:


... as well as the promotions CCP decides to run over Christmas.



for your info TODAY have started some promo on steam .

1x PLEX = 16,99 €

( price for new eve subscription - 75% = 4,99€ )

this round of offers will end on 2 december .

EVE MOONS PROJECT

http://eve-moons.com

The EVE MOONS PROJECT is the most complete and accurate moons database for Eve Online

Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#129 - 2014-11-27 01:27:29 UTC
Princess Honneamise wrote:
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:


... as well as the promotions CCP decides to run over Christmas.



for your info TODAY have started some promo on steam .

1x PLEX = 16,99 €

( price for new eve subscription - 75% = 4,99€ )

this round of offers will end on 2 december .


I believe the main driving factor for PLEX price decreases is reductions in the cost of 6 and 28 packs. I have no idea how much those packs cost or what they get discounted to.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Terraj Oknatis
Perkone
Caldari State
#130 - 2014-11-27 10:40:42 UTC  |  Edited by: Terraj Oknatis
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#131 - 2014-11-27 19:08:34 UTC
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
voetius wrote:


Interesting aside to VV, if the price of a good is driven up by speculation can this be detected by your analysis of fundamentals?



Given how poor mainstream economic theorists were at understanding the US housing bubble when early signs were showing in 2003-4, I do not believe that mainstream economic theories will predict anything useful about PLEX speculation.

I am staying right out of this market now. In 60 days time I could see PLEX at 600 million or 1100 million and the determining factor will be the decisions made by individual multi-trillionaires, as well as the promotions CCP decides to run over Christmas.


What I do is not exactly "mainstream". It can't be, because if anyone or anything becomes mainstream it means every cat and dog have jumped on the bandwagon, which SHALL crash. Because the recipe for profit is to always be in the NOT mainstream minority, that is the minority that gains.

Finally, I don't and didn't do any fundamental analysis (that's what Mynna and Akita T do, not me). Neither in RL nor in EvE. Actually, living across the ocean did not exactly push me to try predict an American bubble to begin with.

But I can see - if you really want - if I can find my links to a RL finance forum where I talk about how I have convinced my parents selling most of their properties before the big crash happened in my country. Of course it's in that country's language.
Mark Rain
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#132 - 2014-11-27 20:11:23 UTC  |  Edited by: Mark Rain
Bad Bobby wrote:
We're heading back towards the stars again.


You got 6 days of plex sales and the weekend traffic is usually higher.


Bottom isn't set yet.
Randolph the Conquerer
Doomheim
#133 - 2014-11-27 20:27:57 UTC
Well, we know one thing.

For the price of PLEX to continue to rise, the demand for PLEX must increase relative to the supply. This means that either:
1) More people decide to play EVE by PLEXing their accounts. A possible consequence of the increased population resulting from that 'This is EVE' trailer
2) The daily supply somehow shrinks. This basically requires more people to horde PLEX.

Based on this, we can reasonably establish that there is a 'peak' price of PLEX. Unless the popularity of EVE grows significantly, the demand for PLEX will always act as a handicap.

I predict we're nearing this handicap. PLEX is very unlikely to stabilise above 1 billion ISK.
voetius
Grundrisse
#134 - 2014-11-27 23:14:42 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
voetius wrote:


Interesting aside to VV, if the price of a good is driven up by speculation can this be detected by your analysis of fundamentals?



Given how poor mainstream economic theorists were at understanding the US housing bubble when early signs were showing in 2003-4, I do not believe that mainstream economic theories will predict anything useful about PLEX speculation.

I am staying right out of this market now. In 60 days time I could see PLEX at 600 million or 1100 million and the determining factor will be the decisions made by individual multi-trillionaires, as well as the promotions CCP decides to run over Christmas.


What I do is not exactly "mainstream". It can't be, because if anyone or anything becomes mainstream it means every cat and dog have jumped on the bandwagon, which SHALL crash. Because the recipe for profit is to always be in the NOT mainstream minority, that is the minority that gains.

Finally, I don't and didn't do any fundamental analysis (that's what Mynna and Akita T do, not me). Neither in RL nor in EvE. Actually, living across the ocean did not exactly push me to try predict an American bubble to begin with.

But I can see - if you really want - if I can find my links to a RL finance forum where I talk about how I have convinced my parents selling most of their properties before the big crash happened in my country. Of course it's in that country's language.


Fair point. I can see what you mean after reading the biography of John Maynard Keynes by Skidelsky, esp. Vol 2. where he makes some interesting points about Keynes's stock picking strategy which was based on contrarianism, for the same reason that you mention mainstream.

No need to look for the links, I was just interested in your point of view.
Meilandra Vanderganken
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#135 - 2014-11-28 10:45:25 UTC
It's dropping faster and lower than I had expected at this point. Curious to see where we will be at come monday.

Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#136 - 2014-11-30 05:35:13 UTC
Meilandra Vanderganken wrote:
It's dropping faster and lower than I had expected at this point. Curious to see where we will be at come monday.




Yep, I'm watching this closely.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Meilandra Vanderganken
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#137 - 2014-11-30 17:07:54 UTC
Interesting, prices creeping up again. If this continues the 'big crash' ppl were fearing/hoping for will once again have been nothing more than a correction of the recent spike. We're basically back at the peak of the previous spike (the summer one).

PLEX market, you so boring! Lol
Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
In Tea We Trust
#138 - 2014-11-30 17:14:39 UTC
A lot of players that exited the market during the crash have now bought back in.

The market graph has gone back in time by a few weeks and speculators wallets have inflated.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#139 - 2014-12-01 15:59:00 UTC
Meilandra Vanderganken wrote:
Interesting, prices creeping up again. If this continues the 'big crash' ppl were fearing/hoping for will once again have been nothing more than a correction of the recent spike. We're basically back at the peak of the previous spike (the summer one).



Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:


Swings happen.

Actually, without swings, markets go in coma mode.


Candy Oshea
Techfree Investment Group
#140 - 2014-12-01 18:54:26 UTC
Shes being very aggressively Pumped in jita now, was tumbling very fast otherwise without this latest attempt.

Don't get caught with the bag newbro's.

iCandy  - I have accidently swallowed some Scrabble tiles, my next shit could spell disaster!