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High end mineral crisis

First post
Author
Mr Omniblivion
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#241 - 2015-03-19 14:17:59 UTC
Hey remember that one time that I kept pointing out how something was broken and people kept saying no?

Hope you all had stocked up on zyd/mega.
Sequester Risalo
German Corps of Engineers 17
Federation of Respect Honor Passion Alliance.
#242 - 2015-03-20 13:57:39 UTC
Mr Omniblivion wrote:
As I've said multiple times before in this thread- if CCP wants to continue to push production outwards and in to null, they will need to change the nullsec ore anomalies to fix their mineral supply.


Although I did not agree with you it seems you have been heard.
Hippinse
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#243 - 2015-03-21 15:45:28 UTC
Mr Omniblivion wrote:
Hey remember that one time that I kept pointing out how something was broken and people kept saying no?


Some of us agreed that from your point of view it was broken, but that the fix would be equally if not more unfair to everyone else everywhere. Guess we'll try it that way then.
Hippinse
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#244 - 2015-03-21 16:50:22 UTC
Hippinse wrote:
Mr Omniblivion wrote:
Hey remember that one time that I kept pointing out how something was broken and people kept saying no?


Some of us agreed that from your point of view it was broken, but that the fix would be equally if not more unfair to everyone else everywhere. Guess we'll try it that way then.


...aaaaand, as I should have continued, it's possible that these changes will be just fine due to the addition of *other* changes which will affect supply/demand and risk/reward. Null might become more dangerous for the inhabitants. The demand for minerals (due to new structures?) might skyrocket far beyond the current supply. Etc. I don't want to give the impression that I'm certain of the exact ramifications of this change in every section of space.
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#245 - 2015-03-21 17:29:25 UTC
With the removal of Arkonor and other high ends from nullsec industrial sites, and the coming Great Eve War III, prices should return to their normal mean, which is around 2,900 ISK / unit for Megacyte with all-time high being 5,225 and 1,600 ISK for Zydrine with ATH being 3,200.

Export to highsec of the above minerals will reduced, to what extend - uncertain, but with the new multi-ore asteroid additions, and the proportional yield, production will become local and what few surplus that remains may end up in Empire.
Shiloh Templeton
Cheyenne HET Co
#246 - 2015-03-21 22:56:56 UTC
Mr Omniblivion wrote:
Hey remember that one time that I kept pointing out how something was broken and people kept saying no?

Hope you all had stocked up on zyd/mega.

And hopefully we've all been reminded that when Goonswarm makes a push on a game change (be it ship balancing or industry), we need to be prepared for that change to happen.

Especially with 4 CSM members.


GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#247 - 2015-03-22 00:50:18 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
Shiloh Templeton wrote:
Mr Omniblivion wrote:
Hey remember that one time that I kept pointing out how something was broken and people kept saying no?

Hope you all had stocked up on zyd/mega.

And hopefully we've all been reminded that when Goonswarm makes a push on a game change (be it ship balancing or industry), we need to be prepared for that change to happen.

Especially with 4 CSM members.




However, is the proposed change bad?

In what Universe do you have Nocx priced higher than Zydrine? Oh, in a broken one. Blink

Thread will soon be populated with Mexallon bugs, if it isn't already.

Hope you sold your pile in time. Big smile

P.S. This change could revitalise Low-sec mining in non-FW regions, as profitability of lower-end falls.
Ekaterina 'Ghetto' Thurn
Department 10
#248 - 2015-03-22 10:40:32 UTC
I doubt mining in low sec will ever become a viable or popular activity. For the most part it's something you try once and lose your ship doing so in a relatively short time. Once bitten twice shy.

" They're gonna feel pretty stupid when they find out. " Rick. " Find out what ? " Abraham. " They're screwing with the wrong people. " Rick. Season four.   ' The Walking Dead. ' .

Hippinse
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#249 - 2015-03-22 19:32:48 UTC
GankYou wrote:
However, is the proposed change bad?


It's possible that optimizing the game (reprocessing, industry, and now mining) around one subset of players at the expense of the other subsets will turn out badly for those not in the favored subset. (And lowsec ore prices would have to rise to a point where people complained and got the game 'fixed' before lowsec mining will be viable.)

Thankfully the favored subset will surely be magnanimous in victory, and not use their newfound complete self-reliance to prey upon all others with contem-.... huh. Well, I guess that's kind of silly since they were doing that even when it did have ramifications.

Well played.
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#250 - 2015-03-22 19:38:58 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
Hippinse wrote:
GankYou wrote:
However, is the proposed change bad?


It's possible that optimizing the game (reprocessing, industry, and now mining) around one subset of players at the expense of the other subsets will turn out badly for those not in the favored subset..


I don't see the issue you all purport to see.

You think Zydrine below Nocx for 5 years is alright? Nullsec used to have mining, you know. Used to. Back in 2007-8 when the game was healthy and breaking all-time highs in population numbers.

Now, all you have is stagnating nullsec ALONG with highsec - only the hardcorers are left, the people who are used to 58 Mex and 400 Zydrine, elite small roaming gangs spamming GFGF with nobody even considering taking sov of another entity, and for them nothing else matters.

Even if the game dies due to severe structural imbalances and distorted markets, they want to enjoy their little sand castle empires for a little longer.

Now THAT is the real issue at hand.
Mr Omniblivion
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#251 - 2015-03-22 22:07:49 UTC
Shiloh Templeton wrote:
Mr Omniblivion wrote:
Hey remember that one time that I kept pointing out how something was broken and people kept saying no?

Hope you all had stocked up on zyd/mega.

And hopefully we've all been reminded that when Goonswarm makes a push on a game change (be it ship balancing or industry), we need to be prepared for that change to happen.

Especially with 4 CSM members.




The irony in this is that the region that benefits the most from this change is Provi and renter regions, because they have the highest density of miners mining ore in their space.

This change will make the progression of the mining profession make more sense and will allow nullsec to mine enough ore locally to feed a significant portion of the demand.

However, don't be fooled- we'll still be reliant on highsec minerals to produce supers/titans. They require a ton of minerals.

That's if CCP doesn't continue to make them worthless Roll

Arronicus
Caldari Navy Reconnaissance
#252 - 2015-03-23 04:09:45 UTC
Steve Ronuken wrote:
Welcome to the free market.

People have over supplied the market for the highends, and undersupplied the lowends.

So the lowends are worth more than you'd have thought they were.



I believe you mean, welcome to the failed product of CCP's ore ratio passes. Highsec is supplying 70% of the ore in the game, almost all as low ends, and yet there is still such a horrible ratio of high ends to low ends in null that the market is flooded with high end minerals.
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#253 - 2015-03-23 05:13:57 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
Regarding the supply of low-end minerals:

1) Prior to capital ships use rise, the price of Tritanium historically held around 4 ISK p/u, and the notion that currently we are under-supplied is largely correct, which is reflected in today's price. Smile

However, depending on the new meta post-new sov, we will either see present levels, if capital use is intact, otherwise we retrace to 2011-2012 levels and bottom around 3.7-4 ISK, which I think is the likely scenario given the compounded effect of the coming nullsec self-sufficiency implementation.

2) I'm registering huge volume dumps of Mexallon today, which largely confirms the latter scenario as described in point one. Very high volume has been consistent since March 17th, which was two days before the Fanfest.

Mexallon itself peaked back in October of 2014. Seeing it back under 40 ISK / unit in due time shouldn't be unexpected.

3) Nocxium is a mystery. Nocx really took off from 160 ISK p/u in Autumn of 2010, peaking a few months later around 575 ISK p/u.

What changes happened back then to promt this? Smile From my analysis, the movement looks like a gradual increase in demand for an on-going War. Smile

Update: The movements in Pyerite correlate with Mexallon.

Going back, the median price of Pyerite had always been 4.5 ISK / unit with spikes upto 7 ISK p/u in times of war. The current bubbles in Mex & Pyerite are mirrored in the over-supply of Zydrine & Megacyte.

Distorted markets due to government intervention --- the badly-designed anomalies and neglected asteroid belts.

Eve is real. Blink
Mr Omniblivion
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#254 - 2015-03-23 06:10:11 UTC
GankYou wrote:
Regarding the supply of low-end minerals:

1) Prior to capital ships use rise, the price of Tritanium historically held around 4 ISK p/u, and the notion that currently we are under-supplied is largely correct, which is reflected in today's price. Smile

However, depending on the new meta post-new sov, we will either see present levels, if capital use is intact, otherwise we retrace to 2011-2012 levels and bottom around 3.7-4 ISK, which I think is the likely scenario given the compounded effect of the coming nullsec self-sufficiency implementation.

2) I'm registering huge volume dumps of Mexallon today, which largely confirms the latter scenario as described in point one. Very high volume has been consistent since March 17th, which was two days before the Fanfest.

Mexallon itself peaked back in October of 2014. Seeing it back under 40 ISK / unit in due time shouldn't be unexpected.

3) Nocxium is a mystery. Nocx really took off from 160 ISK p/u in Autumn of 2010, peaking a few months later around 575 ISK p/u.

What changes happened back then to promt this? Smile From my analysis, the movement looks like a gradual increase in demand for an on-going War. Smile

Update: The movements in Pyerite correlate with Mexallon.

Going back, the median price of Pyerite had always been 4.5 ISK / unit with spikes upto 7 ISK p/u in times of war. The current bubbles in Mex & Pyerite are mirrored in the over-supply of Zydrine & Megacyte.

Distorted markets due to government intervention --- the badly-designed anomalies and neglected asteroid belts.

Eve is real. Blink


I agree with your evaluation, specifically with Pyerite and Mex- they're going to take a hit as the null ore anoms are fixed. Large quantities of trit will still be required to be imported from highsec due to existing ship mineral requirements. However, the increased supply from null will drive trit prices lower to pre-crius/pre-isboxernerf prices.

In order for CCP to fix null mining, zyd, mega and morphite are going to need to raise in price- mostly attributed to a decrease in supply. CCP did mention that they're going to change ship mineral requirements, which leads me to believe that they'll also increase the required high ends and morphite in their respective categories. Without seeing numbers, it's impossible to accurately predict where zyd/mega will increase to, but it should continue to drive towards older numbers. I don't believe we'll ever see zyd or mega back where they used to be in their glory days, but it'll still be another 100% or more than their current prices.

The issue isn't whether or not zyd or mega will reach those levels. It's more of a gamble on how long existing stockpiles will last before prices reach the appropriate level based on supply- which could be year(s). Zyd and Mega are now long plays for huge profits; a mini GS even.

The irony of this is that Fozzie only announced these changes right after saying "we don't want to disclose any details so that you people [at fanfest] don't miss out on any market opportunities". As he was finishing his sentence about null ore anoms, I was clearing out zyd at ~410 and mega at ~720 Cool
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#255 - 2015-03-23 06:28:44 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
Mr Omniblivion wrote:
The irony of this is that Fozzie only announced these changes right after saying "we don't want to disclose any details so that you people [at fanfest] don't miss out on any market opportunities". As he was finishing his sentence about null ore anoms, I was clearing out zyd at ~410 and mega at ~720 Cool


Well, he's not a central banker that's for sure. Smile

First leg is up!

P.S. So what really happened in Autumn/End of 2010? Was it the time that FW got introduced to Lowsec? I remember the times when people would still mine Nocx in Empire LS. Blink
Ekaterina 'Ghetto' Thurn
Department 10
#256 - 2015-03-23 16:52:40 UTC
The graph at Fanfest showing the drop in miners after certain usage of ISBoxer type software was made illegal under the EULA might be small beer compared to any drop in mining resulting from these changes. Not sure it's wise to give too many advantages to null-sec over the other three areas.

Price of Pyerite is still at approximately two and a half times over the price of Tritanium so I'm not sure where you got your figures. It has been like that for quite a long time now - we're talking years. Although Veldspar still is a good mining choice and will continue to be so.

" They're gonna feel pretty stupid when they find out. " Rick. " Find out what ? " Abraham. " They're screwing with the wrong people. " Rick. Season four.   ' The Walking Dead. ' .

Shiloh Templeton
Cheyenne HET Co
#257 - 2015-03-23 17:01:14 UTC
GankYou wrote:
Shiloh Templeton wrote:
we've all been reminded that when Goonswarm makes a push on a game change (be it ship balancing or industry), we need to be prepared for that change to happen.

However, is the proposed change bad?

I stated earlier in the thread I think there is benefit to the overall game to have synergy between null and hisec. If CCP thinks Null should be self-sufficient, I wish they would do likewise for hisec.

But the point of my post wasn't a judgement on the change -- it was an acknowledgement that CFC knows how to wield influence better than anyone else in the game.
Ekaterina 'Ghetto' Thurn
Department 10
#258 - 2015-03-23 17:11:17 UTC
I agree that it is not representative for CCP Fozzie to take the opinion of just one member of the CSM and to act on that alone. But what's done is done.

" They're gonna feel pretty stupid when they find out. " Rick. " Find out what ? " Abraham. " They're screwing with the wrong people. " Rick. Season four.   ' The Walking Dead. ' .

GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#259 - 2015-03-23 20:08:57 UTC
Ekaterina 'Ghetto' Thurn wrote:

Price of Pyerite is still at approximately two and a half times over the price of Tritanium


Yes, however that wasn't always the case as I've indicated. Depending on the new meta, it either goes to historical lower levels or stays the same at best. Blink

Quote:
so I'm not sure where you got your figures. It has been like that for quite a long time now - we're talking years.


This is a historical change at a very important point for Eve.

We're talking decades. Cool
Mr Omniblivion
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#260 - 2015-03-23 22:35:10 UTC
Shiloh Templeton wrote:
I stated earlier in the thread I think there is benefit to the overall game to have synergy between null and hisec. If CCP thinks Null should be self-sufficient, I wish they would do likewise for hisec.



I really don't get why people make this argument. This argument is completely incorrect and, for lack of a better word, Ignorant.

Having the raw building blocks for t1 items hardly makes us self-sufficient. Unless you assume people in null only run t1 ships and fits without any faction or lp items or ammo. Also, what about Ice? Are you suggesting that Goons only use Nitrogen Isotopes? What about datacores, faction ammo and mods, implants, t3 ships, or even moon minerals not found in our space? When at war, where do you think we buy ships from? Highsec. We move them through highsec to near our deployment system.

Again, this change hardly makes us self sufficient. What it does do, however, is allow us to actually build two battleships without having to import trit.