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EVE Death-o-meter

Author
Gully Alex Foyle
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#1 - 2014-07-14 13:09:56 UTC  |  Edited by: Gully Alex Foyle
EDIT: thanks to Chribba, here is the EVE Death-o-meter!


EVE is dying since 2003. Or maybe not.

Lately not a day goes by on the forums without an EVE health exam. Funny thing is, pessimists and optimists draw opposite conclusions from exactly the same data. Subs, PCU, ACU, PLEX prices, suicide gank frequency, nullsec carnage (or lack of it)... so much information, but so little agreement.

Enter the EVE Death-o-meter.

The Economist calculates the Recession index, simply by counting how often the ugly 'R-word' appears on leading newspapers. It seems to be surprisingly accurate at predicting recessions.


So I think somebody should count how often people say 'EVE is dying' on the forums and make some fancy graphs like these.

Lots of grim posts --> we should start looking for another timesink.
Few of them --> all is well, back to the usual forum bs.


I guess Chribba could easily do this with his epic database-fu? Or is there a sociology student looking for a good excuse to play EVE while 'carrying out innovative research'?


What do you think the EVE Death-o-meter would look like, from 2003 to now?

Make space glamorous! Is EVE dying or not? Ask the EVE-O Death-o-meter!

De'Veldrin
Adversity.
Psychotic Tendencies.
#2 - 2014-07-14 13:17:22 UTC
Everything dies, but I'm not particularly concerned about Eve atm.

My guess is if you look at the long term, the graph would be pretty flat, with spikes whenever CCP cocks up something big like boot.ini or Incarna, or lays off some people like a normal business.

De'Veldrin's Corollary (to Malcanis' Law): Any idea that seeks to limit the ability of a large nullsec bloc to do something in the name of allowing more small groups into sov null will inevitably make it that much harder for small groups to enter sov null.

Christina Project
Screaming Head in a Box.
#3 - 2014-07-14 13:18:27 UTC
Ask Chribba, he can help with this!

[i]"Don't look into another human's bowl to see how much he has ... ... look into his bowl to see if he has enough !" - Sol[/i]

Nariya Kentaya
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#4 - 2014-07-14 13:24:46 UTC
De'Veldrin wrote:
Everything dies, but I'm not particularly concerned about Eve atm.

My guess is if you look at the long term, the graph would be pretty flat, with spikes whenever CCP cocks up something big like boot.ini or Incarna, or lays off some people like a normal business.

Yet with strange aeons even death may die.

So since capsuleers got clones, that means EVE will live forever! \o/
Jenn aSide
Worthless Carebears
Test Alliance Please Ignore
#5 - 2014-07-14 13:31:45 UTC  |  Edited by: Jenn aSide
Gully Alex Foyle wrote:
EVE is dying since 2003. Or maybe not.

Lately not a day goes by on the forums without an EVE health exam. Funny thing is, pessimists and optimists draw opposite conclusions from exactly the same data. Subs, PCU, ACU, PLEX prices, suicide gank frequency, nullsec carnage (or lack of it)... so much information, but so little agreement.

Enter the EVE Death-o-meter.

The Economist calculates the Recession index, simply by counting how often the ugly 'R-word' appears on leading newspapers. It seems to be surprisingly accurate at predicting recessions.


So I think somebody should count how often people say 'EVE is dying' on the forums and make some fancy graphs like this one!

Lots of grim posts --> we should start looking for another timesink.
Few of them --> all is well, back to the usual forum bs.


I guess Chribba could easily do this with his epic database-fu? Or is there a sociology student looking for a good excuse to play EVE while 'carrying out innovative research'?


What do you think the EVE Death-o-meter would look like, from 2003 to now?


Doomsday thinking is just people giving into to the natural anxieties that come from being mortal lol.

It's no different in game than out, you think "EVE dying since 2003" is funny? The real world has been ending for way way longer than that. lol.

The anxiety comes not only from fear of death, but also because of the discomfort associated with not being in control. That's why so many people try to "sound an alarm" to stave off death, it's a way of exerting (false) control over the situation.

Not trying to make light of death, but one of the most hilarious things I saw recently is how this doomsday preacher (Camping) predicted the end or the world, then the time came and the world didn't end, he revised the time, and when the world didn't end again, he finally admitted that no one knows when the world will end....then he died. The world did end....but just for him lol.

"EVE is dying" comes from the fear that the thing we love and have invested so much time and money and interest in will go away, at least for most of us. Some people dislike EVE (but cant' stop playing it) so they hope it dies (or comes close to dying) so that someone else will come in and 'fix' the game in a way that they will enjoy.

Me personally, I'm having too much fun actually playing EVE to worry about such things. I don't want EVE to die (and i don't think it will any time soon) or ccp to fold, but if that happens, life goes on and I will enjoy the great memories the game gave me. It would be funny as all hell if EVE was around in 50 years when most of us are actually dead (well, most of you guys, I'll be a robot by then).
Da Dom
Primary Industries
#6 - 2014-07-14 13:37:06 UTC
"REPENT! THE END IS NEAR!"

Yeah... whatever

Because Far-que... That's why.

Gully Alex Foyle
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#7 - 2014-07-14 13:37:28 UTC
Jenn aSide wrote:
The world did end....but just for him lol.
This made me LOL. Big smile

Quote:
It would be funny as all hell if EVE was around in 50 years when most of us are actually dead (well, most of you guys, I'll be a robot by then).
This made me touch my own balls. Shocked

Make space glamorous! Is EVE dying or not? Ask the EVE-O Death-o-meter!

Sibyyl
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#8 - 2014-07-14 13:37:33 UTC
http://themittani.com/features/graphing-eve-online-history-retribution-kronos

Some interesting analysis here.

tl;dr World Cup or TEST is killing EVE.

Joffy Aulx-Gao for CSM. Fix links and OGB. Ban stabs from plexes. Fulfill karmic justice.

Pok Nibin
Doomheim
#9 - 2014-07-14 13:51:20 UTC
I see where you're going with this, however, if you've been around long enough you'll know the word "recession" replaced another word, which replaced another word, which replaced another word so the public won't be upset. The phenomena that keeps recurring to which these many words referred is the same phenom every time it occurs. And, it'll happen again. I figure it's due a name change, again. What's funny about this phenom is, when it's over the rich have gotten richer, and the poor poorer.

What's up with that?


EVE will have died when we no longer have electricity to run it. It's beastly that way.

The right to free speech doesn't automatically carry with it the right to be taken seriously.

Ralph King-Griffin
New Eden Tech Support
#10 - 2014-07-14 13:55:27 UTC
Sibyyl wrote:
http://themittani.com/features/graphing-eve-online-history-retribution-kronos

Some interesting analysis here.

tl;dr World Cup or TEST is Boose and pretty lady's in the sun are killing EVE.

I alterd your post somewhat.
Claud Tiberius
#11 - 2014-07-14 13:55:36 UTC
http://www.google.com.au/trends/explore#q=EVE%20Dying

Does this mean anything?

idk Pirate

Once upon a time the Golem had a Raven hull and it looked good. Then it transformed into a plataduck. The end.

Sodabro
Doomheim
#12 - 2014-07-14 14:01:02 UTC  |  Edited by: Sodabro
tl;dr - the number of people who say "eve is dying" is too damn high.

who wants lemon soda?
Anthar Thebess
#13 - 2014-07-14 14:08:11 UTC
Oh eve is not dying.
It just having bad days.
Antihrist Pripravnik
Scorpion Road Industry
#14 - 2014-07-14 14:20:13 UTC  |  Edited by: Antihrist Pripravnik
Gully Alex Foyle wrote:

I guess Chribba could easily do this with his epic database-fu?


He already did: http://eve-offline.net/?server=tranquility

You're welcome.
Christina Project
Screaming Head in a Box.
#15 - 2014-07-14 14:23:28 UTC
Antihrist Pripravnik wrote:
Gully Alex Foyle wrote:

I guess Chribba could easily do this with his epic database-fu?


He already did: http://eve-offline.net/?server=tranquility

You're welcome.

Please point out where he did what we are actually talking about.

I wonder if you ever heard of the word "context".

Guess not.

[i]"Don't look into another human's bowl to see how much he has ... ... look into his bowl to see if he has enough !" - Sol[/i]

Antihrist Pripravnik
Scorpion Road Industry
#16 - 2014-07-14 14:34:13 UTC  |  Edited by: Antihrist Pripravnik
Christina Project wrote:
Antihrist Pripravnik wrote:
Gully Alex Foyle wrote:

I guess Chribba could easily do this with his epic database-fu?


He already did: http://eve-offline.net/?server=tranquility

You're welcome.

Please point out where he did what we are actually talking about.

I wonder if you ever heard of the word "context".

Guess not.


Isn't "context" a new brand of peanut butter?Straight

Anyway, to base any assumptions of the health of the game on how many times "EVE is dying" is being said is ridiculous by itself. More often than not, the phrase is used as sarcasm and will be interpreted wrongly by any automated statistics system because it's out of aforementioned brand of peanut butter.

Providing graphs with user statistics, including the amount of newly created accounts, is a good enough replacement for the answer.
Christina Project
Screaming Head in a Box.
#17 - 2014-07-14 14:36:55 UTC
Antihrist Pripravnik wrote:
Christina Project wrote:
Antihrist Pripravnik wrote:
Gully Alex Foyle wrote:

I guess Chribba could easily do this with his epic database-fu?


He already did: http://eve-offline.net/?server=tranquility

You're welcome.

Please point out where he did what we are actually talking about.

I wonder if you ever heard of the word "context".

Guess not.


Isn't "context" a new brand of peanut butter?Straight

Anyway, to base any assumptions of the health of the game on how many times "EVE is dying" is being said is ridiculous by itself. More often than not, the phrase is used as sarcasm and will be interpreted wrongly by any automated statistics system because it's out of aforementioned brand of peanut butter.

Wow, so much facepalm.
You must be fun at parties.

[i]"Don't look into another human's bowl to see how much he has ... ... look into his bowl to see if he has enough !" - Sol[/i]

Antihrist Pripravnik
Scorpion Road Industry
#18 - 2014-07-14 14:41:54 UTC
Christina Project wrote:
Antihrist Pripravnik wrote:
Christina Project wrote:
Antihrist Pripravnik wrote:
Gully Alex Foyle wrote:

I guess Chribba could easily do this with his epic database-fu?


He already did: http://eve-offline.net/?server=tranquility

You're welcome.

Please point out where he did what we are actually talking about.

I wonder if you ever heard of the word "context".

Guess not.


Isn't "context" a new brand of peanut butter?Straight

Anyway, to base any assumptions of the health of the game on how many times "EVE is dying" is being said is ridiculous by itself. More often than not, the phrase is used as sarcasm and will be interpreted wrongly by any automated statistics system because it's out of aforementioned brand of peanut butter.

Wow, so much facepalm.
You must be fun at parties.


Yep... hilarious... but then again, I'm not drunk now. Lol
Felicity Love
Doomheim
#19 - 2014-07-14 14:55:40 UTC
Here's the poop.

EVE is not dying.

People's interest and patience, however, is being seriously stretched thin.

Personally, I'd be more concerned that CCP is (hypothetically) being prepped for sale (useless product code being written off, downsizing of staff, new production strategy, etc.) than if it's actually "dying".

And if it does, hypothetically, get sold -- you think there's problems now ? Bwhahahahahahaha...

Those magical words from a new employer "Hey folks, it's great to be here and I just want to say it will be 'Business as Usual' and that we're all looking foward to doing great things... blah, blah, blah".

Usually a clear indication that "This Will Not End Well".

So, yeah... EVE ain't dying... but "WOMEN AND CAREBEARS, into the lifeboats ! ! ! " might not be far off the mark, either. P


"EVE is dying." -- The Four Forum Trolls of the Apocalypse.   ( Pick four, any four. They all smell.  )

De'Veldrin
Adversity.
Psychotic Tendencies.
#20 - 2014-07-14 15:03:14 UTC
Felicity Love wrote:


Personally, I'd be more concerned that CCP is (hypothetically) being prepped for sale (useless product code being written off, downsizing of staff, new production strategy, etc.) than if it's actually "dying".



If they stop scheduling Fanfests, I'll worry about it being sold. That's usually the first sign that there's something in the works - company sponsored player events go poof.

De'Veldrin's Corollary (to Malcanis' Law): Any idea that seeks to limit the ability of a large nullsec bloc to do something in the name of allowing more small groups into sov null will inevitably make it that much harder for small groups to enter sov null.

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