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Some Predictions Regarding Starbases in Post-Crius EvE
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Bronson Hughes
The Knights of the Blessed Mother of Acceleration
#21 - 2014-07-14 14:03:33 UTC
Elena Thiesant wrote:
Probably not. Ore hauled in freighters is seldom valuable enough to attract a profit-based gank. Might actually have the opposite effect. More ISK-worth of ore can be fit into a freighter after compression, so may see people trying to fly freighter-loads of compressed ore and getting ganked for that.

Salpad wrote:
An old Charon, 980k m3, full of low-end/basic ore, was roughly 200M ISK. Very rough ballpark figure, and from sometime like last year.

New Charon is slightly smaller but has the same EHP. Let's say 170M ISK just as a guesstimate.

What's the Crius compression ratio for ore?

If it's x15 then a new Charon can haul a bit over 2.5 billion ISK worth of ore. I'd say that's very gank-worthy.

If someone loads up a freighter to the brim with compressed ores, you are absolutely right that there would be a huge profit potential. And I guarantee you that some freighter pilot will be stupid enough to try it.

My point was that as compressed ores become more steadily available in hisec, I'd wager that more people would be inclined to haul compressed ores in something other than a freighter, thus presenting fewer freighter targets overall. Even taking the same number of trips, the travel time would be reduced in anything smaller than a freighter, as would the likelihood of you getting ganked on a gate.

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#22 - 2014-07-14 17:29:49 UTC
Bronson Hughes wrote:
tl;dr version: the Amarr Compression POS will become the new Caldari research POS, and Jita will likely lose some of it's overall market share to Amarr.

When thinking about post-Crius POSes, I tend to think about research and compression needs separately. Pre-Crius, perfect ore refining and item reprocessing in highsec was trivial and widespread. Post-Crius, not so much. Post-Crius, highsec POS installation will be trivial (due to elimination of standings requirements and additional available moons). Research is a long-term activity that requires thinking about war decs. You have to be ready to defend your tower or take it down on short notice. Compression and refining take only seconds. I can imagine anchoring a small tower, compressing or refining ore as needed, and then taking it down or offlining it. One shot of fuel gets the job done.

Bronson Hughes wrote:
My point was that as compressed ores become more steadily available in hisec, I'd wager that more people would be inclined to haul compressed ores in something other than a freighter, thus presenting fewer freighter targets overall. Even taking the same number of trips, the travel time would be reduced in anything smaller than a freighter, as would the likelihood of you getting ganked on a gate.

Mineral compression is important because of the vast quantities of minerals that need moved. I expect freighters and jump freighters will still be the vessels of choice for moving compressed ore in highsec. Orcas and Miasmos have ore bays that will be useful for smaller loads (Prepare to see some very impressive Miasmos loss mails.)
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