These forums have been archived and are now read-only.

The new forums are live and can be found at https://forums.eveonline.com/

Market Discussions

 
  • Topic is locked indefinitely.
123Next pageLast page
 

PLEX market - call to arms!
Author
Previous Topic Next Topic
Dream Five
Renegade Pleasure Androids
#1 - 2011-11-18 04:02:33 UTC  |  Edited by: Dream Five
The original discussion is here:
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=374044

The bottom line is, if we don't organize to keep the bid/ask spread as low as possible, clamping it from above, PLEX prices will have a natural tendency to rise, because all the full-time traders have a vested interest in playing the same game in the upward direction (since they often sit on large stocks) and so does CCP (I'm pretty sure. I doubt they actually actively manipulate the market but it could be a good idea to police that too by checking for suspicious buying activity). So there are forces at play to nudge the price in the upward direction, so we should play it in the opposite direction to reach a true supply/demand equilibrium. We need to gather as many high skilled traders as we can and cover all hours in all time zones. Ideally we'd have 24 traders allocated to trade one hour a day, if we can gather more we'll rotate on even sparser schedule. This way we'll have a level playing field.

Who is in?

Ideally this requires Accounting V, Broker Relations V and sub-0.3% broker fee from standings.

I created a channel, PLEX SYNDICATE. I have no personal interest in spending time on this other than driving the PLEX to where it belongs so ideallly eventually i'd hand off everything including recruiting to someone trustworthy (not an alt of a big PLEX trader). I don't think we are going to have a huge problem with finding trustworthy people because the vast majority of players have an interest in keeping the PLEX price low.

Initially we might set this up as an API transaction log check until we build a network of trust.

Anyone up to the task?

I believe you can contribute simply by putting a buy order in at a low price and reselling by undercutting the existing high price significantly (200k+). The key is to create new resistance volume so that the big players who try to drive the price up cannot sell their stock. Make money in the process if you can, if nothing else you'll be contributing to having a lower price for when you need your PLEX in the future. Don't outbid the low order by too much and join PLEX SYNDICATE channel to coordinate the effort.

EDIT: I believe it might be ok to outbid the low order - that way you will acquire the PLEX quicker and still resell it immediately at a lower price. As long as the asking price goes down I believe it's ok to acquire the PLEX at any price.
Dream Five
Renegade Pleasure Androids
#2 - 2011-11-18 04:07:57 UTC
[reserved for future updates]
Dream Five
Renegade Pleasure Androids
#3 - 2011-11-18 04:26:16 UTC  |  Edited by: Dream Five
I think undercutting by a smaller but a significant amount (like 200-300k vs a million) will have the tendency to drive the overall price down in a more solid way because it will be more likely to trip large volume orders to slide down (but not after all the big players are aware of what's going on, so it might not matter in the end). But if you undercut at a smaller amount you will make more profit potentially :) Remember, if for-profit traders and speculators who play this same game in reverse cannot acquire PLEX they will not be able to resell it and if they cannot sell their stock at profit for an extended period of time they will be forced to exit. Let's get this ball rolling!
Kietay Ayari
Caldari State
#4 - 2011-11-18 05:48:39 UTC
So this was your plan :|

I would like to point out that as long as they keep raising the buy orders there is nothing you can do unless you have a large amount of PLEX you are willing to sell at a loss :O

Ferox #1
Stealing Honest
Stealing Honest Speculation Group LLC
#5 - 2011-11-18 06:24:17 UTC
I would prefer they keep going up to a nice 600 or more, but if you can pull off a crash that would please me as well. Good luck either way in your pursuit.

SH
Dream Five
Renegade Pleasure Androids
#6 - 2011-11-18 06:45:10 UTC  |  Edited by: Dream Five
Kietay Ayari wrote:
So this was your plan :|

I would like to point out that as long as they keep raising the buy orders there is nothing you can do unless you have a large amount of PLEX you are willing to sell at a loss :O


Hey, I would simply like to keep the PLEX price in check and I had some realizations that seemed to be true. As soon as i stop trading the price goes up. So we need people to keep going at it. I can't trade 24/7 obviously.



Wrt your other point it's not entirely true. If your broker fee is lower than the bid/ask you outbid those orders and immediately sell. They can rise it to (double the broker fee+tax) limit but at that point they are making no profit. If you are not making a profit or taking a loss of more than you want to contribute, do not buy. The dynamic is such that with a significant resistance at play more orders come in and it slows down the sellers. If they are willing to buy at a higher price than the minimum profitable bid/ask spread more power to them, they are taking a risk. Just wait and let the price take it's natural course in this case. I haven't seen this happen much though. Bid/ask doesn't stay under 5-6m for very long.

Btw to calculate the profit point you need to add your broker fee on buy side + broker fee on sell side + tax. So if your broker fee is let's say 0.3% and tax is 0.5%, then the total comission fee is roughly 1.1%. So take the sell price and multiply it by 0.011 to see your profit treshold.

Now "they" _could_ raise the price to above current resistance but that would require a sustained rapid escalation of price ("they" have their profit margins and risks too, such as for instance being completely obliterated by this effort, or short term high volume price fluctuations).

Trust me if we keep at it for a few days the price will drop. Traders for profit will simply not be able to sell.. at a profit.. because they'll be constantly outbid. The spread cannot stay narrow all the time with for-profit traders only. So there is always going to be room to lower the price. Sure "they" or you can always buy at a higher price, just type in the order. Question is, can "they" sell? If "they" can't sell and "they" keep buying that's not sustainable. Daily volume is about 1000 so that's 500b. Even the richest players in EVE will run out of capital in a few days at most if they just keep buying and have no opportunity to sell at a profit.

Worst case if demand really outstrips the supply by that much we'll be providing a lower price to all the players in EVE at any given point in time and make some ISK while at it. But left unchecked the same dynamic applied in the opposite direction will cause the price to rise until it really really hurts. More than it should. CCP might even lose subscribers because PLEX is a form of price discrimination. I'm not even sure CCP really wants PLEX to be as expensive as it is now. Some people will quit because they can't afford to play.
bartos200
Living Ghost
#7 - 2011-11-18 09:07:49 UTC
as far as i know the only way to crash the plex market is by dumping massive amounts of plex on it at a lower price
Heinel Sidewind
Power-Hug Training Bootcamp
#8 - 2011-11-18 09:52:39 UTC
bartos200 wrote:
as far as i know the only way to crash the plex market is by dumping massive amounts of plex on it at a lower price


You are describing a sudden, rapid crash, which is not what is being proposed here. It's more like self-regulation, by first inducing a downward trend towards an arbitrary lower-than-now price and keep it there.
flashmek
Dysfunctional Logistic Services
#9 - 2011-11-18 12:36:28 UTC
if people cant afford it and people start leaving the prices will automatically begin to fall with less buyers ...... you will also find those people in close knit groups will buy plexes from corpies for a good price .....

if u cant afford it ..... dont buy it the game was originally run with just RL money and you must of been paying for some time in the game to get the money to afford a plex in the first place so im sure if push came to shove u could revert back if the prices got stupid.

which in turn will drop the market and the prices will lower ?
Elise DarkStar
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#10 - 2011-11-18 13:52:44 UTC
I respect the effort, but I don't believe crashing the margins will be enough in this case. You're fighting back against a lot of ingrained momentum, so I think you'd need to be pulling down with some fat sell orders. There is also a substantial buy order floor at 480 that could absorb anything except a full blown panic fire sale of stockpiles.
Tarkoauc
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#11 - 2011-11-18 15:01:31 UTC
it won't work. Econ 101 should have taught you that if you have gone to college. The price of the plex is an issue of supply and demand. Unless you are willing to purchase GTC, turn them into PLEXs and sell them for less than what it on the market, the price will not go down. Your attempt to play the market will only cause you to lose isk. The more you succeed (albeit unlikely) the more isk you would lose. It is tough to find people who want to subsidize the game play of others.
Elise DarkStar
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#12 - 2011-11-18 15:10:11 UTC
Tarkoauc wrote:
it won't work. Econ 101 should have taught you that if you have gone to college. The price of the plex is an issue of supply and demand. Unless you are willing to purchase GTC, turn them into PLEXs and sell them for less than what it on the market, the price will not go down. Your attempt to play the market will only cause you to lose isk. The more you succeed (albeit unlikely) the more isk you would lose. It is tough to find people who want to subsidize the game play of others.


Ahhh the "econ 101" argument.

It's amazing that we live in a world where one 3 credit hour course gives the student flawless insight into all human interaction.

Psych 101 and econ 101 graduates should get together and reorder the world into a utopia informed by the infallible understanding of the human experience afforded them by their education.
Esan Vartesa
Samarkand Financial
#13 - 2011-11-18 15:49:50 UTC
Tarkoauc wrote:
it won't work. Econ 101 should have taught you that if you have gone to college. The price of the plex is an issue of supply and demand. Unless you are willing to purchase GTC, turn them into PLEXs and sell them for less than what it on the market, the price will not go down. Your attempt to play the market will only cause you to lose isk. The more you succeed (albeit unlikely) the more isk you would lose. It is tough to find people who want to subsidize the game play of others.


Funny thing about introductory courses in pretty much any field is, everything is dumbed down to such an extent that you're not actually learning anything real. You're just being given the most basic of tools so that subsequent layers of actual information make sense. Once you get to your 400-level material, you'll finally start getting professors who'll tell you:

"Ok, remember all that garbage about supply/demand curves? Yeah, that was bullsh*t. The math part was right, but here's how it REALLY works... we think."

You'll then be bombarded with stuff that will make you cry for ever having taken the 'science' of economics seriously.

On preview: Oh god... I just agreed with Elise. I must just be a shill alt of hers after all.
Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#14 - 2011-11-18 15:54:49 UTC
whats supply and demand precious

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.
Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#15 - 2011-11-18 15:55:25 UTC
Elise DarkStar wrote:
Tarkoauc wrote:
it won't work. Econ 101 should have taught you that if you have gone to college. The price of the plex is an issue of supply and demand. Unless you are willing to purchase GTC, turn them into PLEXs and sell them for less than what it on the market, the price will not go down. Your attempt to play the market will only cause you to lose isk. The more you succeed (albeit unlikely) the more isk you would lose. It is tough to find people who want to subsidize the game play of others.


Ahhh the "econ 101" argument.

It's amazing that we live in a world where one 3 credit hour course gives the student flawless insight into all human interaction.

Psych 101 and econ 101 graduates should get together and reorder the world into a utopia informed by the infallible understanding of the human experience afforded them by their education.


i loathe econ 101 thinking as well but this is one of those rare cases where it actually applies

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.
Krios Ahzek
Royal Amarr Institute
Amarr Empire
#16 - 2011-11-18 16:07:58 UTC
Eve is as close to a libertarian-grade free market as it gets.

All the products in the same class are the same.
There's no marketing or brand recognition.
Information on current pricing is available anywhere at high speed.
Anyone can buy wholesale.

So yes, basic economy notions that are ******** in the real world actually work in EVE.

 Though All Men Do Despise Us
Elise DarkStar
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#17 - 2011-11-18 16:17:47 UTC  |  Edited by: Elise DarkStar
Krios Ahzek wrote:
Eve is as close to a libertarian-grade free market as it gets.

All the products in the same class are the same.
There's no marketing or brand recognition.
Information on current pricing is available anywhere at high speed.
Anyone can buy wholesale.

So yes, basic economy notions that are ******** in the real world actually work in EVE.


Except it doesn't have that real world sense of loss or gain that drives us towards acting rationally in the textbook sense.

I`ve long poopooed suggestions of mass market manipulation in the plex market. If any market is close to operating under textbook conditions, its the plex market. Mostly because it`s by far the biggest, which lends strength to the assumption that no one actor can influence the market (moves it ``towards`` that assumption), and secondly because the sellers are thinking more so in terms of real world money, with which they are more likely to approach textbook rationality.

However, all that said, the whole discussion is whether or not and to what degree the market behavior is deviating from that of the textbook models. The argument that ``it is not because my econ 101 textbook says it isnt because`all markets everywhere act the same way all the time`` is completely and utterly invalid.
Claire Voyant
#18 - 2011-11-18 17:20:39 UTC
Forget Econ 101 for a moment. It all comes down to a question of who will run out of money first. PLEX speculators and their isk stockpiles or PLEX sellers and their RL bank accounts. It doesn't really matter to me, because all of us freeloaders will benefit from cheap and plentiful PLEX when the dust settles. I just want to see how long it lasts before the crash.
Florestan Bronstein
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#19 - 2011-11-18 17:40:40 UTC
Dream Five wrote:
I have no personal interest in spending time on this other than driving the PLEX to where it belongs

how do you know where the PLEX price belongs if you assume the (short-term) market equilibrium is so skewed.
Perramas
DreddNaut
#20 - 2011-11-18 17:49:07 UTC
To me anything under 600 million isk is not worth it for me to use my IRL money to buy Plex to sell to the unemployed leaches of society. When it hits 600+ million isk I will do my part to cash in on the leaches and help stabilize the price of plex at 600 million.

Great minds discuss ideas, average minds discuss events, small minds discuss people- Eleanor Roosevelt

123Next pageLast page